The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RickBFA]

If Boris can win a GE and pick up a 30-50 majority, it should spell the end for Corbyn's leadership.

Have any opposition leaders lost two elections on trot and survived to fight another day?

The left wing Momentum loonies may just choose to keep him there. The ultra left wing agenda is here to stay with the party membership unfortunately.

I have wondered for a while what will be the tipping point for the more moderate MP's to move en masse to a new moderate left wing party? If they had a David Milliband style leader in waiting do you think the Labour Party might split in to two seperate parties?

[kukushkin88]

If Boris can win a GE and pick up a 30-50 majority, it should spell the end for Corbyn's leadership.

Have any opposition leaders lost two elections on trot and survived to fight another day?

The left wing Momentum loonies may just choose to keep him there. The ultra left wing agenda is here to stay with the party membership unfortunately.

I have wondered for a while what will be the tipping point for the more moderate MP's to move en masse to a new moderate left wing party? If they had a David Milliband style leader in waiting do you think the Labour Party might split in to two seperate parties?

I think they are aware that any split is electoral suicide but ultimately if their ideologies don’t align sufficiently, then splitting is the right thing to do. If we had PR, rather than FPP it would be more clearly the right thing. If they stay together, then I guess it has to be Starmer.

[kukushkin88]

Extremely intelligent people say it’s very difficult to predict the future...

You say read Twitter to predict the future..,

Two possible ways of predicting the future:

1: A professor of law at a prestigious university, acknowledging the difficulty of his task and being completely up front about his political allegiance, endeavours to carry out an objective and rigorous analysis of all known information. As a result he puts forward a possible sequence of events for the consideration/critical analysis of like minded people.

2. Boris Johnson’s words are taken at face value and a correlation between what Boris Johnson says he will do and what Boris Johnson actually does is anticipated.

People can make their own mind up obviously but 2 looks fanciful in the extreme to me.

[aaron1867]

Weaker pound, lower growth, inflation higher to come in deal Brexit and even worse under no deal.

But as mantis says, at least we can make our own decisions

[BigAdz]

Weaker pound, lower growth, inflation higher to come in deal Brexit and even worse under no deal.

But as mantis says, at least we can make our own decisions

I get my annual bonus in dollars. Bring it on!

[TightEnd]

The BBC, The Guardian, and C 4 have checked a claim by the foreign Secretary Dominic Raab that leaving the EU without a deal was widely discussed and he was questioned about it frequently. All found he was completely misremembering what happened in 2016

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49165836

[TightEnd]

Lib Dems win by-election. Con majority now 1.

Results confirm national polls.

Resurgent Lib Dems are making Labour life far harder.

Is a Boris Bounce but not enough.

Brexit Party still a viable threat on 10%. Most likely cost Boris an early victory.

[TightEnd]

The Economist

Is no deal for real? Either way, Boris Johnson's game of chicken needs to look credible

https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/08/01/preparing-for-no-deal-is-a-paradoxical-process

[TightEnd]

a great scoop

On Sky News

"we’ve obtained a “sensitive” internal Whitehall slide which makes sober reading about the first month of a no deal brexit. It warns of
- “consumer panic”
- “law and order challenges” in NI
- security gaps
- Brits abroad return

Produced before BJ became PM"

[TightEnd]

Government plans to buy up hundreds of thousands of tonnes of unsold lamb in the event of a no-deal Brexit could be unworkable because there is nowhere to store it, BBC Newsnight has learned

bbc.in/2K9KDU1

[TightEnd]

Senior doctors have called for ''urgent clarification" of plans to supply cancer treatments in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Newsnight learns.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-49153073

[TightEnd]

Perceptive point in this by Caroline Lucas:

strong sense of democratic representation in London, Scotland and Ireland makes voters more comfortable with sharing sovereignty with the EU.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/07/caroline-lucas-letter-my-country-we-must-unite-prevent-trumpian-brexit

[TightEnd]

Leader of the Irish Opposition

Micheál Martin

"To be absolutely clear; the refusal  by PM Boris Johnson to engage with European leaders and our Taoiseach without pre conditions on the issue of Brexit is unacceptable and is not within the realms of normal diplomatic or political behaviour."

[TightEnd]

More fantastic stuff from Chris Grey

Government by cult. My latest Brexit Blog on the mounting damage, the re-writing of history, and the paradox and limitations of no-deal planning being overseen by a government that resembles a cult.

Just up: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/08/government-by-cult.html

[BigAdz]

a great scoop

On Sky News

"we’ve obtained a “sensitive” internal Whitehall slide which makes sober reading about the first month of a no deal brexit. It warns of
- “consumer panic”
- “law and order challenges” in NI
- security gaps
- Brits abroad return

Produced before BJ became PM"

Not sure what makes it such a scoop. I could gather ten people in a pub and put that together. Some of it is quite laughable. Are we suggesting people smuggling doesn't yet happen?!!