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Poll
Question: How will you vote on June 8th 2017
Conservative - 30 (28%)
Labour - 37 (34.6%)
Lib Dem - 13 (12.1%)
UKIP - 1 (0.9%)
Green - 1 (0.9%)
Nationalist party eg SNP, Plaid - 10 (9.3%)
Don't intend to vote - 4 (3.7%)
I really don't know yet - 11 (10.3%)
Total Voters: 107

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 849071 times)
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« Reply #19905 on: August 19, 2019, 07:37:11 PM »

Worked in business all my life, most of it manufacturing - we source all over the world, especially so over the last 2 decades. It's really not that difficult.

I think Mantis, Woodsey,, Adz all make good points.

On balance, the whole shortage thang will be a damp squib of mega damp proportions - why would we cause any issues on incoming goods and why would businesses in the EU want to see exports to us interrupted. And, in any case, businesses will make it work.

For our exporters, there's likely to be more issues of course but the focus in the media is on shortages more than EU27 ers  re-sourcing away from the most cost effective major economy in Europe


Business always finds a way, that’s why I’m not overly worried.
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« Reply #19906 on: August 20, 2019, 08:52:56 AM »

Johnson's letter to tusk

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1psr9wy0UDahcxMtIYhjTJamr4J9ANPt4/view

1. Explicitly rejects "full alignment" across Irish border as agreed by May (with Johnson in cabinet) in Dec 2017
2. Instead: "legally binding commitment" to no hard border (infrastructure, checks or controls "at the border").
3. Hope EU would do likewise
4. Commitment to put in place alt arrangements "as far as possible" by end of transition period – happy to chat about further commitments EU might need
5. A deal could whizz through parliament in no time

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« Reply #19907 on: August 20, 2019, 08:54:06 AM »

(It's like one of those school maths problems with water running into the bath and pouring out again at various rates).

from a forthcoming book
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« Reply #19908 on: August 20, 2019, 08:54:58 AM »

A backbench law to stop no-deal Brexit may lead back to the Question of a caretaker PM
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« Reply #19909 on: August 20, 2019, 08:55:32 AM »

What will happen if the opponents of a no-deal Brexit fail to unite behind an alternative PM?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-swinson-ken-clarke-pm-no-deal-brexit-plan-b-a9063546.html
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« Reply #19910 on: August 20, 2019, 08:56:13 AM »

Corbyn could have been the nation’s saviour. But he’s just too tribal says Simon Jenkins

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/19/jeremy-corbyn-nation-saviour-speech-labour-no-deal
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« Reply #19911 on: August 20, 2019, 08:58:27 AM »

Corbyn is hilarious, his self awareness is so bad it’s unreal....
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« Reply #19912 on: August 20, 2019, 08:59:06 AM »

NHS bosses confirm Johnson’s ‘new cash’ was indeed all spin:

‘The letter, from NHSE/I chief financial officer Julian Kelly, confirmed that £1bn of the additional spending in 2019-20 would be met through “trust’s own income and reserves’

https://www.hsj.co.uk/finance-and-efficiency/confirmed-nhs-cash-reserves-will-fund-pms-capital-spending-promise/7025774.article
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« Reply #19913 on: August 20, 2019, 10:57:28 AM »

(It's like one of those school maths problems with water running into the bath and pouring out again at various rates).

from a forthcoming book


Seen this happen when I worked in haulage at cairnryan and Lochryan ports when management had p issed the staff off and paperwork checks and unit and trailer checks started to be done a little bit more thouroughly. The queues would be 5 or six miles back in no time. And these are small ports compared to Dover
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« Reply #19914 on: August 20, 2019, 11:17:34 AM »

Average across all polls since Johnson became PM

Conservatives 30%
Labour 25%
Lib Dem 18.5%
Brexit Party 14%
Green 6%
SNP 4%
Plaid 1%

treat with caution!

that does translate to

Cons largest party but short of majority
Lib Dems Ashdown '97 seat numbers
Lab Foot '83/Kinnock '87 territory
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« Reply #19915 on: August 20, 2019, 11:29:37 AM »

Response to Boris


Donald Tusk
@eucopresident

The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.
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What kind of fuckery is this?


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« Reply #19916 on: August 20, 2019, 11:35:20 AM »

Response to Boris


Donald Tusk
@eucopresident

The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.

Top 3 reasons why Boris would support a hard border?

In fact just one reason will do..
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« Reply #19917 on: August 20, 2019, 11:55:15 AM »

Response to Boris


Donald Tusk
@eucopresident

The backstop is an insurance to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland unless and until an alternative is found. Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.

Top 3 reasons why Boris would support a hard border?

In fact just one reason will do..

Boris is suggesting they will not impose one, without a backstop. "You can trust me, technology's coming, alternative arrangements". How are the EU and Ireland going to trust him exactly?

Not imposing one is an impossibility for the EU as it means backdoor access to the single market.

Hence the request for a firm alternative (clue there isn't one) rather than "we won't do it"

The backstop will become seen as an extremely clever piece of work that was extremely elegant. To be seen as that might take a number of years though. One for 2050 A level politics papers.
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« Reply #19918 on: August 20, 2019, 12:11:11 PM »

I really liked this analysis (David Henig, co-founder UK trade forum)

1  the current Government can't put forward a formal offer to the EU - because there is no deal acceptable to the Brexit Party. So unless you take them on, you're stuck. If they can't poach brexit party votes then they won't be in with a shot at Government when Johnson calls his GE. And he really really wants to win that election, so he can't take them on.

2 The Conservative Party can't be the party of no-deal, ever, as that takes away a chunk of the party (business, home counties) and can't be the party of deal as that takes away a chunk of the party (anti-EU, sovereigntist).

We're now over 3 years watching this movie...

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« Reply #19919 on: August 20, 2019, 12:36:51 PM »

David Baddiel

"Brexit is like ante-natal classes, where you focus entirely on the birth of your child and not at all on the demands of living with them for the next 18 years"

Here's James Kirkup in The Times.
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