The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[PokerBroker]

Yeah our first home.
I was thinking house prices are set by the demand for them. There are lots of Eastern Europeans coming to live in the uk so will us leaving the EU effect the numbers coming in or effect the ones already living here? If the demand drops will the market drop?

That's the thing I think, there may be temporary market factors (like the one you suggest) that force a price drop for a period but trying to second guess this, measured over say 25 years would likely cost you money. If you want to consider really transient factors like this then, given the odds of us staying in, you should buy now as the house will probably cost more in 6 months. That's not a recommendation of course as I have no idea what house prices will do in the next couple of years.

A price drop is obviously not great if you buy with cash and find yourself needing to sell with a reduced house price or if you borrow and find you need to move during a downturn. For most people who are buying with predominantly borrowed money it should be a fairly simple equation concerning the cost of borrowing that money versus rental costs at today's economics..ceteris paribus etc

I can't forsee a situation in which the market starts to regress under Brexit.   Indeed, there may be an arguement that house prices will increase with an out vote.   

What we may see with an out vote is a change in regulation.   Hopefully seeing lenders go back to using common sense alongside stringent affordability models.  Some decisions being taken are crazy. 

We need to see more houses built and sadly the conservatives aren't the party to deliver that.   The other issue being the 3% levy on BTL's, it's an utter nonsense and isn't going to help FTB's. 

[dakky]

Cameron let himself down today, sinking to insults about personal appearance.

Thought it was quite funny, but completely agree that it was out of order and not what you want at PMQs.

Unfortunately it could well be a winning strategy for him. Shame really because all Corbyn has to do is shout pig fucker at him and he could drop the mic on him there and then.

If it somehow got down to Trump vs Sanders, I fear the exact same thing would happen. All Trump has to do is keep shouting 'Socialist' at him and in America that would probably be enough to win him the election, which is sadly why I'd prefer Clinton to go up against him (well I think I'd prefer it to be Rubio for the GOP as he seems the least horrific) even though I like Bernie and Clinton is a corporate shill.

Not that they can't get it wrong but I thought numerous research/polls/projections showed that if it was Sanders v Trump, Sanders wins everytime

[TightEnd]

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton

The Tory split that Labour craved has arrived - but the party can't exploit it. My column from tomorrow's NS. http://bit.ly/1oI8nkM

[DaveShoelace]

Cameron let himself down today, sinking to insults about personal appearance.

Thought it was quite funny, but completely agree that it was out of order and not what you want at PMQs.

Unfortunately it could well be a winning strategy for him. Shame really because all Corbyn has to do is shout pig fucker at him and he could drop the mic on him there and then.

If it somehow got down to Trump vs Sanders, I fear the exact same thing would happen. All Trump has to do is keep shouting 'Socialist' at him and in America that would probably be enough to win him the election, which is sadly why I'd prefer Clinton to go up against him (well I think I'd prefer it to be Rubio for the GOP as he seems the least horrific) even though I like Bernie and Clinton is a corporate shill.

Not that they can't get it wrong but I thought numerous research/polls/projections showed that if it was Sanders v Trump, Sanders wins everytime

I'd suggest they were biased polls if so.

American's have a lower view of socialists than they do of atheists, all it needs is for Trump to call him Comrade a few times and he is done.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the points Bernie would make would be intellectually superior to Trump by about 1,000%, but this is a country where they tried to get pizza classed as a vegetable.

[MintTrav]

Ireland is voting today in a General Election that looks like it will resolve nothing.

PR has meant that there were always half-a-dozen Independent or minor-party TDs (MPs). Recently, the Austerity programme has led to an explosion in these, with mainstream parties being blamed and their TDs losing their seats to anti-austerity candidates. The outgoing Dail contained 30 Ind/Minor TDs and the next Dail will be similar, which makes it that much harder to win a majority in a House of 158 members.

Historically, the country has been ruled by Fianna Fail or a Fine Gael / Labour coalition. Fianna Fail was always the largest party but was thrashed in the last election due to incompetence and corruption and is in a rebuilding stage.

The result could be something like:

Fine Gael 58
Fianna Fail 37
Sinn Fein 25
Labour 8
Minor Parties 11
Independents 19

Labour is likely to be obliterated, so FG/Lab isn't enough. An FG/FF grand coalition seems impossible to imagine. They are both centrist parties, though both containing quite right-wing and quite left-wing elements. They are, however, the descendents of the two sides in the Irish Civil War and many of them are still fighting that war in their heads. Also, that would make Gerry Adams the Leader of the Opposition and Sinn Fein the government-in-waiting, which they would all be loathe to do. FG or FF would never go into coalition with SF, so where do they go from here?

All I can see is a minority FG or FG/Lab government, followed by another election in October or November this year.

http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ireland-risks-hung-parliament-impasse-after-election-friday-2016-2?IR=T

[MintTrav]

So the public had an opportunity for a European vote tonight and picked the wrong one. If they can't even get that right, I don't hold out much hope for them making an informed choice when the In/Out vote comes.

[Woodsey]

Just spotted John Bercow, stop for a pint a my fav watering hole opposite Big Ben to break up the journey to Portsmouth early tomorrow.....

[TightEnd]

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton

Corbyn and Cameron won't face each other in 2020 - but who will fall first? My column: http://bit.ly/1oQafYg

[TightEnd]

corbyn has accused New Labour of creating the conditions for the financial crash. http://polho.me/1WWaGLA

[DungBeetle]

corbyn has accused New Labour of creating the conditions for the financial crash. http://polho.me/1WWaGLA

This is quite interesting, seeing as the party line for the last 8 years has been to emphasise the word GLOBAL in every sentence and say "nothing to do with us guv". 

[DaveShoelace]

Do respect the fact that Corbyn has been pretty vocal about the problems of New Labour and Tony Blair.

[Doobs]

corbyn has accused New Labour of creating the conditions for the financial crash. http://polho.me/1WWaGLA

This is quite interesting, seeing as the party line for the last 8 years has been to emphasise the word GLOBAL in every sentence and say "nothing to do with us guv". 

Meh, just more blame the bankers for all our problems nonsense.  What Corbyn thinks works best is if we have complete state control of large parts of our economy.  He isn't interested in the thousands of pages of legislation that financial services companies are already dealing with.  He wants to be CEO.  You'd think financial services was the big failure in the economy and not our biggest global success story.

No surprise he is attacking Blair either, wasn't that Labour's most succesful period in 100 years.  Is there a theme developing here?
 

[PokerBroker]

corbyn has accused New Labour of creating the conditions for the financial crash. http://polho.me/1WWaGLA

This is quite interesting, seeing as the party line for the last 8 years has been to emphasise the word GLOBAL in every sentence and say "nothing to do with us guv". 

Meh, just more blame the bankers for all our problems nonsense.  What Corbyn thinks works best is if we have complete state control of large parts of our economy.  He isn't interested in the thousands of pages of legislation that financial services companies are already dealing with.  He wants to be CEO.  You'd think financial services was the big failure in the economy and not our biggest global success story.

No surprise he is attacking Blair either, wasn't that Labour's most succesful period in 100 years.  Is there a theme developing here?
 

Are you saying the banks weren't at fault?  Just because there was a period of success doesn't mean they shouldn't be criticised for their failings.   The de-regulation caused so many problems, alongside irresponsible steroid lending, corporate greed and lack of accountability.   It's accepted that the FSA/Bank Of England etc never knew who was doing what when the collapse came, it never happened overnight. 

[TightEnd]

there is plenty of fault to go round. de-regulation started under greenspan in the us, and in 97 under new labour. excessive lending doesnt take place without it but of course there are financiers performing poorly and you have a lot of technological change too with new instruments developed.

what i think is clear that the 2015 gen election line from Ed M and team that it was a global event and not down to government policy (well it mostly was but past government policy was part of that global event) didnt wash with the electorate

in that sense corbyn is preaching to the choir a) his supporters will lap it up and b) voters don't believe brown/darling etc were completely absolved of blame 

if it happens again (and it might) that is the best chance corbyn has of getting close in 2020 as the incumbent government will feel heat from any collapse/recession

[Doobs]

corbyn has accused New Labour of creating the conditions for the financial crash. http://polho.me/1WWaGLA

This is quite interesting, seeing as the party line for the last 8 years has been to emphasise the word GLOBAL in every sentence and say "nothing to do with us guv". 

Meh, just more blame the bankers for all our problems nonsense.  What Corbyn thinks works best is if we have complete state control of large parts of our economy.  He isn't interested in the thousands of pages of legislation that financial services companies are already dealing with.  He wants to be CEO.  You'd think financial services was the big failure in the economy and not our biggest global success story.

No surprise he is attacking Blair either, wasn't that Labour's most succesful period in 100 years.  Is there a theme developing here?
 

Are you saying the banks weren't at fault?  Just because there was a period of success doesn't mean they shouldn't be criticised for their failings.   The de-regulation caused so many problems, alongside irresponsible steroid lending, corporate greed and lack of accountability.   It's accepted that the FSA/Bank Of England etc never knew who was doing what when the collapse came, it never happened overnight. 

Of course I am not saying that, the banks were partly at fault, but the problems at the banks just shined a light on the underlying problems in the west.  We have been through very good times and the Western Governments were still spending more than we earned in revenue.   They still are.  The banks were just part of the problem.  

The main deregulation happened in the early 80s and made our banks some of the most succesful in the World, and they still are.  We already have more stringent regulations of our banks. We now need to move on and fix the crappy bits of the economy, not the succesful bits.  Stopping a bunch of banks doing things they are very good at will make a worse performing economy not a better one.  

Who accepts that the FSA had no idea what was going on?  That isn't true at all, but you could say some people didn't understand the consequences.  But that will always be the way, you can prepare as much as you can, but the unexpected can always get you.