The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

Just looked at the Inland Revenue spreadsheets on trade.

Really interesting read.

In 2015 we imported £85 billion more from the EU than we exported to them.

£85 billion more!!!


Here's the link :

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/Pages/Annual-Tables.aspx

That's one hell of a lot of German and French jobs down the swanny if they decide to play hard ball on a trade agreement.

Just answer one question.  We won't have any trade agreement with out biggest export market the USA.  How long do you think that will take to sort out? 

 

I would imagine even the USA would want to tie up a deal in the circumstances when in 2015 they exported £35 billion's worth of goods to us.

If there is a transitional period of 2 years, wouldn't it be in everyone's interest to find a solution in that time?

Of course it would, but don't let that get in the way of a bit of scaremongering. Ok both sides are and will be guilty of that in this debate.

[rfgqqabc]

Why do people assume the importers have all the power? Presumably we are buying things we need and at the best price currently possible. It sounds expensive to find new people to import from.

[DungBeetle]

Why do people assume the importers have all the power? Presumably we are buying things we need and at the best price currently possible. It sounds expensive to find new people to import from.

Lol.  Purchasers have no influence whatsoever.

[Jon MW]

Why do people assume the importers have all the power? Presumably we are buying things we need and at the best price currently possible. It sounds expensive to find new people to import from.

Wrong way round - it's not the importers with power, it's the exporters who won't want to lose sales.

Sterling would weaken on an exit making them more expensive to start with, if you add any reciprocal tariffs then those exporters to us take a hit to their economy.

I still suspect that the EU would want to take some punitive measures against us for leaving - but I can see the argument that it's really against their best interest to do so.

[TightEnd]

The problems with Brexit succinctly put last year in a German paper by, er, Boris Johnson

[RickBFA]

Why do people assume the importers have all the power? Presumably we are buying things we need and at the best price currently possible. It sounds expensive to find new people to import from.

Wrong way round - it's not the importers with power, it's the exporters who won't want to lose sales.

Sterling would weaken on an exit making them more expensive to start with, if you add any reciprocal tariffs then those exporters to us take a hit to their economy.

I still suspect that the EU would want to take some punitive measures against us for leaving - but I can see the argument that it's really against their best interest to do so.

It goes both ways doesn't it.

If you are a UK exporter you don't want to lose sales.

If you are a German exporter you don't want to lose sales.

The point I was making is that we are in a stronger position that the "in" campaign want to admit when it comes to doing a deal.

If Germany and France don't want to do a sensible deal they are shafting themselves and their exporters, given they export a lot more to us than we do to them.

[TightEnd]

Corbyn support within Labour is even deeper and broader than in Sep: @election_data's latest

http://election-data.co.uk/#ar_2302 

Click to see full-size image.

Also in the Labour selectorate poll:
41% read the Guardian
34% have voted Green in the past
47% think Lab likely to win in 2020 under Corbyn

[RickBFA]

"47% think Lab likely to win in 2020 under Corbyn"

 

[redsimon]

"47% think Lab likely to win in 2020 under Corbyn"

 

More bizarrely does that mean 53% of Labour members don't think he will?

[Woodsey]

"47% think Lab likely to win in 2020 under Corbyn"

 

We shouldn't take the piss too much, they might actually consider getting rid of him, we can't be having that  

[TightEnd]

67% of lab voters want corbyn to lead them intom the next election but only 47% think he will win, is another takeaway

so implicitly those who want him to lead but don't think he will win are happy to accept another tory government in 2020

its an interesting poll.

[PokerBroker]

Isn't it the case that there are growing numbers within the Labour Party who want to move away from the Centrist route started by Kinnock and ultimately completed by Blair?

in 1997 I voted for Labour.  In subsequent general elections I haven't given them my vote, and that is probably similar for the vast majority of those within my circle of family and friends.   I know of many card carrying Labour activists who became so disillusioned by Blair that they gave up. Corbyn has at least provided them with something to fight for.  He may not be everyone's cup of tea. 

Additionally, I don't believe that pragmatism is necessarily the making of a leader.  I don't mind having someone who puts principle first.   

I fully get that Labour have to win the centre ground, but I'm not sure going that route at the expense of losing your traditional vote is the best thing to be doing. 

At the last Election the Labour vote collapsed in areas where it would be expected to hold up, particularly so Scotland and across the North of England. 

The SNP despite their rhetoric of being left of centre/progressive definitely aren't.   They say one thing in public and do another in private, a revitalised Labour appealing to the grass roots of their Scottish vote would do well if they had a competent leader North of the Border.   I'd think in areas of England as we seen in Oldham West the electorate are responding to Corbyn.  I'd think after the EU referendum when In win fairly comfortably we will see the back of UKIP. 

Labour can appeal to the core vote and the soft centre right by being progressive, it doesn't need to mean a seismic shift to the left.   For me, it's about class, more so than left/right. 

Deep down, I strongly believe the majority of people want the same thing.   

[RickBFA]

Isn't it the case that there are growing numbers within the Labour Party who want to move away from the Centrist route started by Kinnock and ultimately completed by Blair?

in 1997 I voted for Labour.  In subsequent general elections I haven't given them my vote, and that is probably similar for the vast majority of those within my circle of family and friends.   I know of many card carrying Labour activists who became so disillusioned by Blair that they gave up. Corbyn has at least provided them with something to fight for.  He may not be everyone's cup of tea. 

Additionally, I don't believe that pragmatism is necessarily the making of a leader.  I don't mind having someone who puts principle first.   

I fully get that Labour have to win the centre ground, but I'm not sure going that route at the expense of losing your traditional vote is the best thing to be doing. 

At the last Election the Labour vote collapsed in areas where it would be expected to hold up, particularly so Scotland and across the North of England. 

The SNP despite their rhetoric of being left of centre/progressive definitely aren't.   They say one thing in public and do another in private, a revitalised Labour appealing to the grass roots of their Scottish vote would do well if they had a competent leader North of the Border.   I'd think in areas of England as we seen in Oldham West the electorate are responding to Corbyn.  I'd think after the EU referendum when In win fairly comfortably we will see the back of UKIP. 

Labour can appeal to the core vote and the soft centre right by being progressive, it doesn't need to mean a seismic shift to the left.   For me, it's about class, more so than left/right. 

Deep down, I strongly believe the majority of people want the same thing.   

Unfortunately for Labour, there is no way, ever, that Corbyn will attract the centre ground voter.

[TightEnd]

[ripple11]

a real zinger of a heckle

stopped the person speaking in his tracks, it was that good

Can't make it out, what did they say?

JC I was attending with european socialist leaders in brussels and they said to me...

"WHO ARE YOU?"

Brilliant timed heckle.....even Andy Burnham is desperately trying to keep straight faced.