The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[ripple11]

Rory running for London Mayor as an independent !

Wow....he would be great, but surely it just splits the tory vote and confirms another term for Mayor Khan?

[Jon MW]

Will someone should understands these things tell me:

1) Will the EU buy the proposals by Boris, or if not, are they close enough to find a way to meaningfully negotiate from there?

2) Will Parliament vote for it?

1).....it could have been a basis for negotiation, but the Benn Act (we MUST ask for an extension) really lets the EU off the hook in looking seriously at it and finding a compromised deal.  They would rather see an extension/election and take it from there.

2) Parliament would get the numbers if the EU went for it......but see above!    

 

It being the basis for negotiation was my first thought on it - but the more it's looked at and the implications of it become clearer the less likely that becomes.

It's basically such a non-starter that the only meaningful negotiation would be to throw it away and either go back to Theresa May's plan with a backstop or the EU's plan where the border with the EU becomes the Irish Sea; once it's looked at in detail there's really not much going for Boris's plan.

[ripple11]

Rory running for London Mayor as an independent !

Wow....he would be great, but surely it just splits the tory vote and confirms another term for Mayor Khan?

early odds on Lads

Khan 4/6
Stewart 2/1


game on

[TightEnd]

Love these

[TightEnd]

We all know Marina Hyde's and her columns are the best things to come out from Brexit

But this must be her greatest yet

https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/04/jennifer-arcuri-boris-johnson

The paragraph beginning "However unlikely this possibility may seem..." is the funniest thing ever

[TightEnd]

An interesting piece about the 3 part long con behind Brexit

https://politics-punked.com/2019/10/02/brexit-the-great-british-heist

[TightEnd]

Downing Street say that Boris Johnson won’t request an extension, won’t disobey the law and won’t resign. How do you square that circle?

(i can't work it out yet! nether can this article)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/will-leave-voters-forgive-a-brexit-delay/

[TightEnd]

In all the discussions about the offer this week, the first recorded instance of taking lipstick off a pig...but something parliament might pass but the EU won't the essential problem re-emerges: The Good Friday Agreement and a Hard Brexit cannot co-exist. The issue is the insistence on breaking from the Customs Union. Once Ireland is inside the CU and Northern Ireland is outside the CU, the GFA creates an impossible Venn diagram.

[TightEnd]

now what Johnson's "final offer" does do is give the DUP a veto. (which is why it can't be accepted)

"I have a hunch that DUP acquiescence with Boris Johnson’s proposal for a new regulatory border between Northern Ireland & Great Britain is not just a spectacular U-turn, but will come to be seen by Northern Irish unionists in retrospect as a terrible error for the unionist cause."

was one comment

[TightEnd]

The worst outcome according to Team Johnson? Second referendum. Govt insiders think it would lead to violence:

“MPs wouldn’t be able to leave a secure zone in SW1, they would be lynched. I think people would get killed.”

Must read from the FT

Note the FT saying it, via govt source, not me

https://www.ft.com/content/e81bd39e-e455-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

[TightEnd]

Column: On Johnson and the innovative poker technique of the re-bluff - continuing to bluff when your bluff has been called.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/01/boris-johnson-eu-prime-minister-brexit

[TightEnd]

Interesting ONS  chart on Brexit hit to the economy.

March 2016 OBR forecast 6.6%
Actual growth 4.7%

The EU referendum has cost UK roughly 2% of national income

That's roughly £44bn a year, c 2 Boris buses worth

[TightEnd]

so we are two weekends away from the EU summit, at which they won't negotiate. No one in Ireland or the EU except the DUP finds the latest proposal acceptable

by the Benn/Burt law he has to ask for an extension if there is no deal agreed

he would prefer to no deal not extend

No one has a clue how this resolves

[BigAdz]

I've resisted reading this thread for much of the week.

It could be the way forward as I see much of the last few posts are duplicates/rehashes/rewords of the same old white noise.

[engy]

Turn a blind eye to whats happening/facts seems what Boris and co have been doing all along