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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2193445 times)
aaron1867
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« Reply #21645 on: October 21, 2019, 11:43:29 PM »

I don’t see how the Tories win a majority or ‘romp’ it.

They are going to be facing voters who are split between them and Brexit Party.

They are predicted to lose all Scottish seats.

Lib Dem’s are on an upsurge, kinda, not so much right now with Jo.

Labour expected to be crushed, but I’m pretty sure historically they tend to win by larger majorities.

I’m happy for a GE, but I think there’s a high possibility of it not solving anything.

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« Reply #21646 on: October 22, 2019, 08:23:50 AM »

The Speaker rules that it would be “repetitive & disorderly” for the government to put Johnson’s Brexit Deal to a Meaningful Vote today.

On we go.

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1186304106526363649

Olympic level petard hoisting.

I just don't think many people outside the abso convinced remainers see it like this - most people just see a strange little man, rather full of himself, trying to stop Brexit - it may be completely wrong but I think Boris and Co are playing a blinder in losing every vote and winning outside parliament. Even more nuanced observers would note his willingness to break convention at times being rarely in support of pursuing Brexit

There has to be an election soon doesn't there and surely the conservatives absolutely romp it?

I know lots of labour devotees who wouldn't dream of voting for labour now because of JC and his brexit antics. They seem to love Boris though.

I don't know of any regular conservative who voted remain and would now switch to labour because of JC just being a general bell end.

Out of interest is there anybody on here who voted conservative at the last election and would now switch to Labour?

Anybody normally labour who would now switch to conservative?

Perhaps another poll thread is needed to see where the blondes allegiance currently lies?

An election would surely just be throwing in the towel for remainers?

Everybody knows it's really a vote about Brexit but they also know that they can't vote for JC because of....... Well because he's JC.

In my opinion of course.....


Why can't we vote for JC exactly? Apart from being told we can't and that he's unelectable over and over. This was a big thing going round at the previous election. But Labour campaigned well and boosted a lot.

I don't think anyone can really predict what will happen in a GE. My instinct is it will be closer than people think but who knows.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #21647 on: October 22, 2019, 10:23:32 AM »

what happens next?
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« Reply #21648 on: October 22, 2019, 10:51:29 AM »

Good article:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/governments-timetable-designed-frustrate-brexit-scrutiny
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« Reply #21649 on: October 22, 2019, 10:56:41 AM »

The Speaker rules that it would be “repetitive & disorderly” for the government to put Johnson’s Brexit Deal to a Meaningful Vote today.

On we go.

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1186304106526363649

Olympic level petard hoisting.

I just don't think many people outside the abso convinced remainers see it like this - most people just see a strange little man, rather full of himself, trying to stop Brexit - it may be completely wrong but I think Boris and Co are playing a blinder in losing every vote and winning outside parliament. Even more nuanced observers would note his willingness to break convention at times being rarely in support of pursuing Brexit

There has to be an election soon doesn't there and surely the conservatives absolutely romp it?

I know lots of labour devotees who wouldn't dream of voting for labour now because of JC and his brexit antics. They seem to love Boris though.

I don't know of any regular conservative who voted remain and would now switch to labour because of JC just being a general bell end.

Out of interest is there anybody on here who voted conservative at the last election and would now switch to Labour?

Anybody normally labour who would now switch to conservative?

Perhaps another poll thread is needed to see where the blondes allegiance currently lies?

An election would surely just be throwing in the towel for remainers?

Everybody knows it's really a vote about Brexit but they also know that they can't vote for JC because of....... Well because he's JC.

In my opinion of course.....


Why can't we vote for JC exactly? Apart from being told we can't and that he's unelectable over and over. This was a big thing going round at the previous election. But Labour campaigned well and boosted a lot.

I don't think anyone can really predict what will happen in a GE. My instinct is it will be closer than people think but who knows.

On this theme  "why I'm not betting on a tory landslide":

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/10/20/just-a-little-bit-of-history-repeating/
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« Reply #21650 on: October 22, 2019, 11:10:16 AM »

Bush read the 240 pages overnight

"It's a long bill and I had to read it pretty quickly, but these are what I think the biggest problems that Parliament's various Brexit factions will have with it:"

"The government has published the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, giving MPs (and the rest of us) less than 24 hours to read it before voting begins. So while there may be some vital bits and pieces that I have missed, here’s what, to me, look to be the bits that might cause the Bill to come unstuck:"

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/what-look-out-parliament-votes-boris-johnson-s-brexit-deal

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« Reply #21651 on: October 22, 2019, 11:13:13 AM »

One example

Here's a summary of the UK Govt impact assessment of the NI/IRL Protocol in the WA Bill.

TLDR

* Impact not included
* Details to be finalised
* Subject to discussion
* No data.

Whatever else, there is a risk of uninformed & thus irresponsible decision-making here.

cliffs: A bodge job cobbled together quickly to try to hit 31 October for electoral advantage.
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« Reply #21652 on: October 22, 2019, 11:39:19 AM »

Why can't we vote for JC exactly? Apart from being told we can't and that he's unelectable over and over. This was a big thing going round at the previous election. But Labour campaigned well and boosted a lot.

I don't think anyone can really predict what will happen in a GE. My instinct is it will be closer than people think but who knows.

If your main priority is Brexit, why would you choose to vote for someone who offers no opinion on it, on behalf of the party he 'leads'?

If your main priority is something other than Brexit, then why would you choose to vote for a party under EHRC investigation for institutional antisemitism, which all but the most blinkered can see is overwhelmingly supported by evidence, under the watch of this apologist?  If that doesn't bother you, there are a myriad other reasons not to condone supporting Corbyn, and the fact that a sizeable proportion of his sitting MPs have reservations about doing so speaks volumes.  As far as I'm aware, the PLP vote of no confidence in him has never actually been reversed or overturned.

The fact that we have a sitting PM who's totally unsuitable for the office doesn't condone the fact that the alternative is at least equally unsuitable and, to many ordinary voters, a great deal more repellent an option than BoJo.  Look at the consistent trends of best PM polling for evidence of this.

I agree that we can't predict what a GE will bring, which is why its much less preferable an option to address Brexit than a 2nd Referendum.  What is undoubtedly the case is that there are a sizeable number of voters out there, of which I'm one, who would never consider voting Tory, but are equally as adamant that they will never vote for this version of the Labour Party, so are resigned to voting for alternative options as and when a GE happens.  In a voting system where, in all likelihood, one of two people becomes PM at the end of it, it doesn't favour the odds of JC being that person.  The consistent Tory poll leads are also relevant in this regard, as the next election won't have such a pathetically run Tory campaign as the last one did, so I very much doubt that you'll see the same closing of the gap as last time (which many of the Corbynista brigade simply assume will occur).

With regard to the comparison with the 2017 election, three things have fundamentally changed since then:
1) Many people voted Labour as a remain option, or at least as an way to prevent Theresa May getting the majority required to enact her Brexit.  It's obvious now that this isn't the case in a future GE.  Labour have deliberately distanced themselves from being a pro-Remain party, so these votes will naturally land with Lib Dems/Greens/SNP/Plaid.  This was evidenced in the Euro elections, and we're essentially in the same place on Brexit policy.
2) The EHRC investigation didn't exist at the time, and it's a significant consideration for many people, especially when it ranks Labour alongside the BNP as the parties who've been subject to one.
3) We've had 2 further years of seeing Corbyn in action as LOTO (actually, 'inaction' would be a better description).  Labour would be polling much better than they are if he was any kind of vote winner, on a national basis.
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« Reply #21653 on: October 22, 2019, 11:54:29 AM »

Bush read the 240 pages overnight

"It's a long bill and I had to read it pretty quickly, but these are what I think the biggest problems that Parliament's various Brexit factions will have with it:"

"The government has published the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, giving MPs (and the rest of us) less than 24 hours to read it before voting begins. So while there may be some vital bits and pieces that I have missed, here’s what, to me, look to be the bits that might cause the Bill to come unstuck:"

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/what-look-out-parliament-votes-boris-johnson-s-brexit-deal



The more people are scratching away at the surface of the Bill, the things they're revealing are generally quite alarming.  If the timetable motion passes this evening it will be a collective dereliction of duty by the entire HoC not to subject this to the scrutiny it requires.

Below is a thread from my constituency MP on his early reading

https://twitter.com/alexsobel/status/1186388770175758337


He's also retweeted an 'interesting' tweet from Nikki Da Costa from December regarding required timing for the WAB.  37 days was the estimate at the time from one of BoJo's own core strategy team.

https://twitter.com/alexsobel/status/1186592253063634945?s=20
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« Reply #21654 on: October 22, 2019, 12:05:13 PM »

This is a mandate for another year of no-deal chaos:

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/10/22/brexit-legislation-this-is-a-mandate-for-another-year-of-no
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« Reply #21655 on: October 22, 2019, 12:57:39 PM »

Classic Dom:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/british-journalists-have-become-part-of-johnsons-fake-news-machine/
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« Reply #21656 on: October 22, 2019, 05:39:32 PM »

Some more wtf in the house today

Vote for second reading, then block then block programme timescale. Then block a GE.

Labour block another GE & they really are toast. These riots are coming.
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« Reply #21657 on: October 22, 2019, 06:12:03 PM »

A low as 1/7 that we dont leave on 31st now.

Ist vote tonight "2nd reading" vote looks like it will get through fairly ok...but not looking good for the 2nd vote on how much  time taken to debate the bill.

So Boris threatening GE again, or can he live with a small extension by the EU to get the Bill through ?.......


1 hour to go.......
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« Reply #21658 on: October 22, 2019, 07:12:11 PM »

The Speaker rules that it would be “repetitive & disorderly” for the government to put Johnson’s Brexit Deal to a Meaningful Vote today.

On we go.

https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1186304106526363649

Olympic level petard hoisting.

I just don't think many people outside the abso convinced remainers see it like this - most people just see a strange little man, rather full of himself, trying to stop Brexit - it may be completely wrong but I think Boris and Co are playing a blinder in losing every vote and winning outside parliament. Even more nuanced observers would note his willingness to break convention at times being rarely in support of pursuing Brexit

There has to be an election soon doesn't there and surely the conservatives absolutely romp it?

I know lots of labour devotees who wouldn't dream of voting for labour now because of JC and his brexit antics. They seem to love Boris though.

I don't know of any regular conservative who voted remain and would now switch to labour because of JC just being a general bell end.

Out of interest is there anybody on here who voted conservative at the last election and would now switch to Labour?

Anybody normally labour who would now switch to conservative?

Perhaps another poll thread is needed to see where the blondes allegiance currently lies?

An election would surely just be throwing in the towel for remainers?

Everybody knows it's really a vote about Brexit but they also know that they can't vote for JC because of....... Well because he's JC.

In my opinion of course.....


Why can't we vote for JC exactly? Apart from being told we can't and that he's unelectable over and over. This was a big thing going round at the previous election. But Labour campaigned well and boosted a lot.

I don't think anyone can really predict what will happen in a GE. My instinct is it will be closer than people think but who knows.

It was a bit scary wasnt it how many people expected him to deliver all the unicorns he promised.
I'm a big fan of people who vote based entirely upon expectation of said unicorns being delivered.

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« Reply #21659 on: October 22, 2019, 07:13:45 PM »

Some more wtf in the house today

Vote for second reading, then block then block programme timescale. Then block a GE.

Labour block another GE & they really are toast. These riots are coming.

Let's be honest anyone who ends up rioting over this is out first and foremost because the love a good riot. So they can crack on as far as I'm concerned along with those extinction rebellion guys who again, love a protest much more than the cause they champion.
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