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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 55

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 2180384 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #22695 on: December 17, 2019, 10:19:19 AM »

Johnson putting it in law that the transition period cannot be extended is so fantastically bad and also unnecessary

It leads UK to one of two conclusions

Either the UK just agrees to what the EU offers it on the future relationship (so much for take back control!)

Or it’s No Deal and crash out end of 2020

If you’re the stronger player, having a deadline might help you. But the UK is the weaker and more ill prepared player here. As it’s been until now.

It doesn’t know in detail what it wants. It doesn’t have adequate negotiation capacity.

Brexit will legally happen 31 Jan. Having the option to extend the transition period after that was a useful insurance policy if negotiations go badly. And now the UK *through its own volition* is denying itself that.

Of course the key point is it's not about the best negotiating strategy, it's about crushing the (now virtually non-existent ) hope and parliamentary debate that arises from any option to change course.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension
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« Reply #22696 on: December 17, 2019, 10:23:57 AM »

Tighty, Christmas is a time to believe!

 Wink

It's all about the negotiating position!


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« Reply #22697 on: December 17, 2019, 10:38:40 AM »

Zac Goldsmith, what a story.

Son of humble billionaire, at 23 made editor of a magazine (owned by his uncle), gets Tory nom for leafy London seat at 32, loses the seat twice in 3 years, (also losing London mayoral race).

Kicked out last week, Elevated to the House of Lords this week so he can stay in cabinet.

Truly, the British dream as requested by those in Blyth Valley and Sedgefield :-)
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« Reply #22698 on: December 17, 2019, 10:39:28 AM »

Apart from the obvious answer of - because they're racist - there was a massive amount of discussion about how it's all related to poverty and the North being decimated and devestated by the Tories. From what they wrote I would have guessed that the North is like some kind of Mad Max-ian post apocalyptic wasteland where the poverty stricken working class can only scrimp they're survival by digging in the dirt for the occasional fragment of coal to keep them going.

I know this was said in jest, but this wasn't far from the truth during the miners' strike in 1984-85, and living through this as the son of a coal miner is the significant factor in why I will never vote Tory in my lifetime.  Ironically, over 15,000 people within the Hemsworth constituency where I grew up managed to overcome this reluctance last week, which was probably the most stark statistic for me as to Corbyn's legacy.

In the height of the strike, it wasn't uncommon for people to try and find coal on the slag heaps (essentially the waste material from the pits) to heat their homes.  Most of the houses in the area were still powered by coal at the time.  There were a few deaths during the strike from teenagers trying to find coal for their families.  I have a distinct memory of standing at the school bus stop one morning when news of one of the deaths was being discussed around us.  The boy had relatives in the village, so news had filtered quite quickly within the small community.

Reading your post triggered the memory in a really vivid way, even though it's not something I've consciously thought about for years.



I'm always astonished when people say this, (Sturgeon said something similar on QT a few weeks back). How can people say that they will never do something in the future? Things change, 40 years before the strikes we were at war with the German's, now we have hysteria that we are trying to break up from them and the EU, things change, Governments change their policies. How can someone be happy to forgive and move on from the worst atrocity in modern age but not be willing to envisage a time they may agree with a political party regardless of their manifesto? it's this kind of party politics that has reduced the modern political picture to a farce.

Surely you'd look at each party on their policies and what you feel is going to be best for you and your core beliefs?

Simple.  My core beliefs will never align with the Tory Party, ever.

There hasn't been a Tory government in my lifetime which hasn't systematically fucked over the community I grew up in.  It's in their fundamental DNA of protecting their own interests, no matter what the cost elsewhere.

That's an immovable position, and will never change.  Rather than being a supporter of any political party my fundamental political viewpoint is anti-Tory.  There is literally nothing they could offer to make me ever consider voting for them, because that would make me a hypocrite.



 I really dont mean to come across as rude but surely that's a little closed minded to say, you'll never change? Its a different party with different policies.
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« Reply #22699 on: December 17, 2019, 10:59:25 AM »

How Brits voted in 2019 by their vote at the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election

1 in 3 Labour Leavers jumped ship

While 2 in 3 Conservative Remainers stayed loyal

the remain vote was far more fractured, and also piled up votes in large city constituencies where they were wasted

 
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« Reply #22700 on: December 17, 2019, 11:32:17 AM »

I really dont mean to come across as rude but surely that's a little closed minded to say, you'll never change? Its a different party with different policies.

It's more than close-minded.  It's a promise I made to myself in 1992 that, no matter how my life progressed, I would never, ever stoop so low as to vote Conservative and to essentially betray my upbringing.  Nothing that I've seen since has ever come remotely close to changing this view, as each successive Conservative government has just continued to the same fundamental policy of protecting the richest at the expense of the poorest.

The tragedy for me, currently, is that Labour have progressively deteriorated to a point where, for the first time in my lifetime, I couldn't rank them as any better than the Tories in this election campaign.  Even in 2017, I'd have put Corbyn's disaster communism slightly ahead of it.

FWIW, I don't view your comments as rude.  I have no doubt that it's difficult to appreciate the level of hatred I hold for the Tory party unless you grew up in a community that was so deliberately targeted by them.  For most people, politics might be an issue of debate or discussion, without ever having had an existential impact on their local communities.
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« Reply #22701 on: December 17, 2019, 11:35:28 AM »

Johnson putting it in law that the transition period cannot be extended is so fantastically bad and also unnecessary

It leads UK to one of two conclusions

Either the UK just agrees to what the EU offers it on the future relationship (so much for take back control!)

Or it’s No Deal and crash out end of 2020

If you’re the stronger player, having a deadline might help you. But the UK is the weaker and more ill prepared player here. As it’s been until now.

It doesn’t know in detail what it wants. It doesn’t have adequate negotiation capacity.

Brexit will legally happen 31 Jan. Having the option to extend the transition period after that was a useful insurance policy if negotiations go badly. And now the UK *through its own volition* is denying itself that.

Of course the key point is it's not about the best negotiating strategy, it's about crushing the (now virtually non-existent ) hope and parliamentary debate that arises from any option to change course.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension

Its fair enough. If people hadn't spent 3 years trying to stop Brexit then perhaps more of the total elapsed time would have been given over to discussions around future arrangements. However thin and crap the deal is or isn't it makes sense to do it in a year and have 4 years to work in a new framework before the next election. Worse thing for all of us is to spend years and years of a publicly played out negotiation when so clearly the majority of people have said 'enough'. Leave alone that most people don't care.

As everyone on the remain side said. Everything bad in this country is due to decisions made here so any improvements to society will come from decisions made here rather than through the arrangements finalised with the EU.. in political terms its pretty irrelevant now.
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« Reply #22702 on: December 17, 2019, 11:40:36 AM »

How Brits voted in 2019 by their vote at the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 general election

1 in 3 Labour Leavers jumped ship

While 2 in 3 Conservative Remainers stayed loyal

the remain vote was far more fractured, and also piled up votes in large city constituencies where they were wasted

 

I think we are missing a chart somewhere, but it looks like 1 in 2 labour leavers jumped ship, and labour remainers were less loyal than Tory leavers.  

The difference in loyalty is probably just a reflection of how comfortable the supporters are with their leadership and policies, and not Brexit, as claimed.  I voted labour this time, not that it made a difference, but I was pretty unhappy with the vote.  I was just swung late by an enthusiastic local candidate who answered questions and appeared at hustings.  If they carry on with much of the same, I am probably going to be struggling again next time.  

I do hope they see a bit of sense, but there still appears to be too much sniping from both sides.  I have no idea how 15 ex labour MPs managed to go through the contortions that lead to them paying for an advert that made a conservative government more likely.  I can see why some ex MPs are bitter with the labour leadership, but why you would go on TV and say Thornbury said that in a private conversation, even if she did.  And I just shake my head at those who spent the day blaming the centrists for the defeat, despite the left having control of pretty much evrything connected with the election.  
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« Reply #22703 on: December 17, 2019, 11:50:49 AM »

It is fairly depressing to see the left joining in with Johnson's attacks on the BBC.  If you both think it is biassed, then it probably isn't.

Given the bias against labour in most newspapers, then why attack places where they get a more balanced hearing.  I have long lost count of the attacks on the Guardian too.  Even though some opinion pieces are anti Corbyn, the overall output is clearly more biassed to the left.  Do you think the mainstream media as a whole becomes better for Labour, or worse, if the Guardian goes, or the BBC no longer gets the licence fee?

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« Reply #22704 on: December 17, 2019, 11:51:23 AM »

Johnson putting it in law that the transition period cannot be extended is so fantastically bad and also unnecessary

It leads UK to one of two conclusions

Either the UK just agrees to what the EU offers it on the future relationship (so much for take back control!)

Or it’s No Deal and crash out end of 2020

If you’re the stronger player, having a deadline might help you. But the UK is the weaker and more ill prepared player here. As it’s been until now.

It doesn’t know in detail what it wants. It doesn’t have adequate negotiation capacity.

Brexit will legally happen 31 Jan. Having the option to extend the transition period after that was a useful insurance policy if negotiations go badly. And now the UK *through its own volition* is denying itself that.

Of course the key point is it's not about the best negotiating strategy, it's about crushing the (now virtually non-existent ) hope and parliamentary debate that arises from any option to change course.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/16/boris-johnson-will-amend-brexit-bill-to-outlaw-extension

don't fall for it.

BORIS ENSHRINES EXIT DATE IN LAW. BORIS OUTLAWS EXTENSION.

etc etc. absolute tosh and totally just playing to the gallery.

Parliament cannot bind its future self. Remember when he also enshrined in law that we'd be out by Oct 31st?

the point is fundamentally this. once we're out on Jan 31st, A50 ceases to apply. Under A50, extensions were, pragmatically speaking, unilateral in nature and could be invoked at the latest hour. For proof of that, consider the right of unilateral revocation and you'll see what I mean easily.

That will not be the case under the WA -- which specifically sets out a date in July by which an extension must be requested.
Extensions under the WA will be far less unilateral in nature, and I have no doubt that they will occur, fwiw. But they require planning and buy-in on all sides and in all capitals of Europe.
That Parliament cannot bind itself may be a fact for which Mr Johnson is grateful, once he's finished his grandstanding.
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« Reply #22705 on: December 17, 2019, 11:57:47 AM »

Sure there will be lots of common ground here

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickluck/status/1204061829409828864



I don't know if anyone saw this, but I caught up with it yesterday and there wasn't really any big poitical arguments and Philip Davies came across better than expected when he wasn't getting political.  Both Philip Davies and Neil Channing got political at times, but they both pretty much ignored each others political bits despite Nick Luck's attempts to get an argument going.  The racing UK catch up service is welcome, but it is hard work as there isn't much option to fast forward bits you don't want to listen to, so I am not sure i'd recommend searching it out.

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« Reply #22706 on: December 17, 2019, 12:10:57 PM »

I really dont mean to come across as rude but surely that's a little closed minded to say, you'll never change? Its a different party with different policies.

It's more than close-minded.  It's a promise I made to myself in 1992 that, no matter how my life progressed, I would never, ever stoop so low as to vote Conservative and to essentially betray my upbringing.  Nothing that I've seen since has ever come remotely close to changing this view, as each successive Conservative government has just continued to the same fundamental policy of protecting the richest at the expense of the poorest.

The tragedy for me, currently, is that Labour have progressively deteriorated to a point where, for the first time in my lifetime, I couldn't rank them as any better than the Tories in this election campaign.  Even in 2017, I'd have put Corbyn's disaster communism slightly ahead of it.

FWIW, I don't view your comments as rude.  I have no doubt that it's difficult to appreciate the level of hatred I hold for the Tory party unless you grew up in a community that was so deliberately targeted by them.  For most people, politics might be an issue of debate or discussion, without ever having had an existential impact on their local communities.

But in the same context how can you try to start to get people to change from being a Con to voting Labour in the future if you already say despite whatever happens over the next 5 years you wont change your mind regardless of what the Cons do?

if we as a nation can move on from wars and the worst atrocities of the modern age and make the EU (which many on here want to stay part of) surely we can get passed such party politics and voting?
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« Reply #22707 on: December 17, 2019, 12:39:57 PM »

I really dont mean to come across as rude but surely that's a little closed minded to say, you'll never change? Its a different party with different policies.

It's more than close-minded.  It's a promise I made to myself in 1992 that, no matter how my life progressed, I would never, ever stoop so low as to vote Conservative and to essentially betray my upbringing.  Nothing that I've seen since has ever come remotely close to changing this view, as each successive Conservative government has just continued to the same fundamental policy of protecting the richest at the expense of the poorest.

The tragedy for me, currently, is that Labour have progressively deteriorated to a point where, for the first time in my lifetime, I couldn't rank them as any better than the Tories in this election campaign.  Even in 2017, I'd have put Corbyn's disaster communism slightly ahead of it.

FWIW, I don't view your comments as rude.  I have no doubt that it's difficult to appreciate the level of hatred I hold for the Tory party unless you grew up in a community that was so deliberately targeted by them.  For most people, politics might be an issue of debate or discussion, without ever having had an existential impact on their local communities.

But in the same context how can you try to start to get people to change from being a Con to voting Labour in the future if you already say despite whatever happens over the next 5 years you wont change your mind regardless of what the Cons do?

if we as a nation can move on from wars and the worst atrocities of the modern age and make the EU (which many on here want to stay part of) surely we can get passed such party politics and voting?


I have to say that I usually find Sheriff's arguments cognisant and persuasive, but this is just robs him if credibility.

What he seems to be suggesting is that if the Tories adopted all the policies he believed in and then kept all their promises for the next decade or two he would still never ever vote for them because of what some other government did in the past.


The Tories have openly persecuted Gypsies for generations (I don't even want to get into the latest abominable proposals) but, at some point in the future, if they have better policies overall than the opposition, I will vote for them.

Sorry Curtis. You know I love you.
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« Reply #22708 on: December 17, 2019, 12:41:43 PM »

Quick question. If the Scots get independence and stay in or re-join the EU, will we need a hard border?
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« Reply #22709 on: December 17, 2019, 12:56:08 PM »

Quick question. If the Scots get independence and stay in or re-join the EU, will we need a hard border?

well all EU borders to the outside world are 'hard' in the absence of arrangements otherwise. Those arrangements might be, e.g., a comprehensive trade deal encompassing a customs union, for example.

it's the same problem as faced by the Irish border. Taking back control of our borders is, it appears, a lot harder to do when one of them is in another country Smiley

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