The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Party politics will be unrecognisable in 10 years time

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/29/whoever-leader-is-labour-may-never-recover-crisis

[TightEnd]

Psychological profiling of voters last week

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/one-among-many/201606/the-personality-brexit-voters

[TightEnd]

A london view

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

another MP writes....

[TightEnd]

the economis intelligence unit produced a report and did a presentation yesterday

extracts follow

We significantly revised our economic fcast. After growth of 1.5% this year, we expect contraction of 1% in 2017

[Sheriff Fatman]

Tim Farron leaves door open to new party with Labour rebels. http://bit.ly/29fjZGo

Electorally, this may be the best way forward, rather than another start-up party if Corbyn manages to hang onto what's left of the Labour name.

[TightEnd]

- We expect to see decline in investment of 8% and decline in private consumption of 3% in 2017 with the pound levelling out at $1.24

- The vote has transformed our fiscal forecasts. Falling tax rev & higher social transfers as unemployment rises

[TightEnd]

- We now expect the UK's public debt burden to reach 100% of GDP by 2018



- This hit brings UK's post-crisis recovery to a halt. 2018 real GDP will be almost 4% below pre-referendum forecast (2020 = 6% below)

[TightEnd]

- We expect two months of chaos in the near-term. New PM Johnson (or May) will be in post in Sept, and start to figure out way ahead

- The UK will likely invoke Art 50 before year end, implying that negotiations will conclude in late 2018

- UK will agree an EEA minus deal with significant constraints on services access in return for limitations on migration

- Much of the financial services sector may be left in the cold

- This new deal will be confirmed through either a second referendum or a general election at the end of the process

- Leavers will tell voters they wont get what they want on migration. Will lead to major backlash = structural rise for radical right

-  New PM will eat heroic quantities of humble pie to get the deal; UK will be permanently out of the room on big decisions

- This is a particular threat for Labour. We expect UKIP etc to mount a serious challenge in Labour heartlands (even with Corbyn gone)

-  UK establishment will take time to fully reassert itself. Lack of planning / credibility will lead to ongoing doubts about capacity

-  Much of the UK's 'political stability premium' based on predictability / reliability etc could be lost for long time

- As UK leaves, recovery will be underway but economy & politics will look structurally different

- We are not predicting second Scot ref at this stage, but constitutional settlement needs to change (inc London / FPTP?)

- Impacts across Europe will be substantial. We have taken 0.2% off growth and see larger political risks – particularly in Italy/France

- . The region is capable of managing Brexit, and other crises in isolation. It may not be capable of managing several crises at once

- We expect things to hold together, but see major downside risks – include possibility EU wont deal, or that crises spin out of control

[TightEnd]

French finance min Michael Sapin to newsnight: "Those who argued for Brexit were prepared for absolutely none of the consequences of this"

French finance min Sapin to newsnight: "Perhaps if people of Britain had known the consequences they wouldn’t have voted the way they did"

[JohnCharver]

Eagle a stalking horse or an actual candidate?

Everytime I see her do an interview, she doesn't seem the best communicator and always seems very nervous. She doesn't seem to me like a leader. It's not a backwards step as Corbyn has been a complete disaster, but more like a sideways step.

No more of a sidestep than if the Tories get crabb

[TightEnd]

Jeremy Corbyn fights to the last in the war both sides knew would come. a long read:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/jeremy-corbyn-fights-last-war-both-sides-knew-would-come

[TightEnd]

Paddy Ashdown ‏@paddyashdown

To become the Government Boris had to lead the revolution. To be the Government, he has to betray it. Thats what he'll do - without a qualm.

[TightEnd]

Michael Gove runs for PM saying "Boris can't provide leadership" - challengers at a glance

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/06/michael-gove-runs-pm-declaring-boris-cant-provide-leadership-tory

[TightEnd]

after that twist, the brexiteer vote is split and May walks it?

Click to see full-size image.