The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Combined Labour-Lib Dem vote share in ICM poll is 35%. The centre-left has never been weaker in an ICM poll

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now who to blame for Lab 27%?

a Corbynista will say its the PLP, and all the infighting, that he has a mandate and lets crack on

the PLP will say that Corbyn is the problem, the public can see he's unelectable etc

maybe its a bit of both

still, it provides the scope for a bounce post leadership contest to -4-6% over conference season and for that to be seen as a success

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must be sorely tempting for Mrs May to make a run for the polls before (the possibility of) implementing Brexit being a real headache

[TightEnd]

Guy who wrote Art50 says it was never intended to be used & solving the 2 yr hard stop clause is critical to Brexit

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-amato-idUSKCN1012Q8


"My intention was that it should be a classic safety valve that was there, but never used. It is like having a fire extinguisher that should never have to be used. Instead, the fire happened."

[Sheriff Fatman]

Guy who wrote Art50 says it was never intended to be used & solving the 2 yr hard stop clause is critical to Brexit

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-amato-idUSKCN1012Q8


"My intention was that it should be a classic safety valve that was there, but never used. It is like having a fire extinguisher that should never have to be used. Instead, the fire happened."

This is a very good example of all the bureaucracy entailed within the EU, beyond simply the legislative matters.

It was effectively a captive organisation in the sense that once someone was in, it was virtually impossible to leave it (which was hardly a great advert for choosing to continue membership).

It was always likely that someone would leave at some stage.  The only surprise to me is that the first one came as a result of a national vote, rather than someone being booted out for failing the membership criteria, most likely in terms of financial stability (e.g. Greece).

[MANTIS01]

Report from the Tourism Alliance makes for very positive reading as domestic and inbound UK tourism shows a sharp upturn since Brexit. Inbound trending 21% up and domestic 18% growth. This has created many new jobs and stimulated plans for immediate further investment in our infrastructure.

[david3103]

FTSE100 up since June 23
FTSE250 within 2% of June 23 value

No emergency budget, no riots, just a massive queue on the approaches to Dover.

[doubleup]

No brexit yet either

[Woodsey]

FTSE100 up since June 23
FTSE250 within 2% of June 23 value

No emergency budget, no riots, just a massive queue on the approaches to Dover.

My pension up 8% too 

[Doobs]

FTSE100 up since June 23
FTSE250 within 2% of June 23 value

No emergency budget, no riots, just a massive queue on the approaches to Dover.

Pound down 12.5%, so companies with dollar earnings should be up similar amounts.  To balance that uk facing companies down by similat amounts in the opposite direction. 

The next budget will reflect lower expected tax revenues.  Presumably the NHS budget will be safe as ever, whilst not quite enjoing a brexit bonanza.

[TightEnd]

this is an interesting read (barry Carter will like it, behaviour of crowds on social media)

If you want to understand Jeremy Corbyn's appeal, you need to understand the place he's winning - Facebook

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/how-jeremy-corbyn-won-facebook

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

FTSE100 up since June 23
FTSE250 within 2% of June 23 value

No emergency budget, no riots, just a massive queue on the approaches to Dover.

Pound down 12.5%, so companies with dollar earnings should be up similar amounts.  To balance that uk facing companies down by similat amounts in the opposite direction. 

The next budget will reflect lower expected tax revenues.  Presumably the NHS budget will be safe as ever, whilst not quite enjoing a brexit bonanza.

cbi business optimism out yesterday

mapped against that worrying pmi survey

[Archer]

Report from the Tourism Alliance makes for very positive reading as domestic and inbound UK tourism shows a sharp upturn since Brexit. Inbound trending 21% up and domestic 18% growth. This has created many new jobs and stimulated plans for immediate further investment in our infrastructure.

Well, I'm reading the report and I don't know where those figures have been plucked from. As an example, for inbound forward bookings c75% of operators are reporting no change, c15% reporting bookings are up and c10% reporting down.

Then for investment in the inbound category, 29% reporting planned investment has been put on hold compared to 8% who are planning to increase. 

[nirvana]

I think we can all probably agree that the sky hasn't actually fallen in. A mild recession is the consensus forecast for next year now.

 In the meantime I'm pretty sure the average European is probably more concerned with Governments ' collective inability to protect its citizens from being maimed and slaughtered rather than being over concerned about big business and economics. Of course if you're based in the no job zone of southern Europe then these economic factors might resonate more

[DaveShoelace]

I think we can all probably agree that the sky hasn't actually fallen in. A mild recession is the consensus forecast for next year now.

 In the meantime I'm pretty sure the average European is probably more concerned with Governments ' collective inability to protect its citizens from being maimed and slaughtered rather than being over concerned about big business and economics. Of course if you're based in the no job zone of southern Europe then these economic factors might resonate more

Might just be my own timelines/personal biases etc etc, but I have noticed many of the very vocal remainers have been tremendously quiet since this horrific wave of terrorist attacks. Obviously it's very wrong to suggest that leaving the EU will prevent them on our shores, but I wager if the referendum had been next week instead, Leave would have won by a much bigger margin.

[DaveShoelace]

this is an interesting read (barry Carter will like it, behaviour of crowds on social media)

If you want to understand Jeremy Corbyn's appeal, you need to understand the place he's winning - Facebook

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/how-jeremy-corbyn-won-facebook

Yes really liked that thanks Tighty. Also nicely explains why Corbynistas appear to be speaking for 'the people' when in fact they are just a (very engaged) vocal minority.