The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

this is thought provoking

"The mainstream Left is in collapse across the Western world. That should worry us"

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-left-is-collapsing-everywhere/article/2614491

[DaveShoelace]

this is thought provoking

"The mainstream Left is in collapse across the Western world. That should worry us"

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-left-is-collapsing-everywhere/article/2614491

The stuff about the way work is changing is pretty spot on. There have been studies which have shown that starting a small business moves you further to the right (same study shows that backpacking moves you further to the left) and given many more people are in some way or shape self employed or at least having to play a much bigger role in their own career trajectory, the argument makes sense.

[TightEnd]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 26% (-1)
UKIP: 13% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via ICM / 17 - 19 Feb)

it will be interesting to see how this tallies up with two real elections this week, copeland and stoke

so far since the GE at local level the lib dems have made big gains, and there has been a big decline in UKIP. Con has declined but UKIP to Con has masked it a bit

Labour has held its five safe seats under Corbyn, should hold Stoke and Copeland is a flip at best for them

[nirvana]

The livid reaction to Tony Blair’s speech suggests that he must have a point about Brexit, says

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/02/tony-blair-right-brexit/

Just read this, so poor.

I mean, did I miss the livid reaction. I've probably interacted with 100+ people since his call to arms - can honestly say not a single person mentioned it let alone appeared to be seething underneath, if they were I could have enquired if it was down to Blair's speech.

the only person livid is the writer and he takes Blair's ticket. So funny reading a frother only writing for people who are already frothing

[TightEnd]

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 44% (+2)
LAB: 26% (-1)
UKIP: 13% (+1)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via ICM / 17 - 19 Feb)

it will be interesting to see how this tallies up with two real elections this week, copeland and stoke

so far since the GE at local level the lib dems have made big gains, and there has been a big decline in UKIP. Con has declined but UKIP to Con has masked it a bit

Labour has held its five safe seats under Corbyn, should hold Stoke and Copeland is a flip at best for them

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

The Guardian front page, Tuesday 21.02.17: Crashing out of EU without a trade deal would saddle UK exporters with extra annual costs of £6bn

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

(it comes from a remain perspective of course, but an interesting read)

"How difficult, and how costly, is a hard Brexit?

Leaving the EU without a deal and falling back on WTO rules would mean paying customs duties on British exports to the EU. Guardian calculations put the annual bill at $7.6bn just in tariff costs. Here’s why"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2017/feb/20/how-difficult-and-how-costly-is-a-hard-brexit-leaving-eu?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

Labour is said to be smacking UKIP all over the place in Stoke postal voting

now it is said that Con could beat UKIP into 2nd despite having abandoned campaigning in the seat to try to win Cpeland

http://uk.businessinsider.com/ukip-faces-coming-third-in-stoke-as-voters-turn-on-nuttall-for-his-toxic-hillsborough-claim-2017-2

[doubleup]

(it comes from a remain perspective of course, but an interesting read)

"How difficult, and how costly, is a hard Brexit?

Leaving the EU without a deal and falling back on WTO rules would mean paying customs duties on British exports to the EU. Guardian calculations put the annual bill at $7.6bn just in tariff costs. Here’s why"

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2017/feb/20/how-difficult-and-how-costly-is-a-hard-brexit-leaving-eu?CMP=twt_gu

This is nonsense.  Tariffs are paid by the purchasers.  This results in a reduction in demand for the relevant product.  The price might be reduced ie the exporter might absorb some of the tariff, but if for example input costs are rising, they might just simply reduce production to maximise profit at the level of the new demand.

Tariffs have the effect of increasing costs to consumers and reducing the quality of products (by increasing demand for inferior substitutes).  They are lose/lose. 

The most dramatic effect of the WTO scenario would be if the UK applied tariffs.  The £ would fall further and the effect of that added to the tariffs could lead to a dramatic increase in inflation followed by higher interest rates with all that means.

[TightEnd]

Win a referendum by promising to cut immigration, then cheerfully admit it won't do that at all..

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[TightEnd]

!

lovely man (not)

Lord Mandelson: I do something every day to unseat 'maniac' Jeremy Corbyn - http://bit.ly/2l2EgTm

[TightEnd]

of course its all that comes up on the doorstep

"well we would have voted labour, but then the nasty PLP tried to stage a coup against lovely Jeremy"

Jeremy Corbyn: Media to blame for Labour poll woes http://bit.ly/2lzF5WS

[TightEnd]

Hammond's Organ

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[TightEnd]

the grauniad goes again

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[TightEnd]

copeland sounds really touch and go tomorrow

and voting in 80mph winds won't be fun and there could be turnout issues

if it happens

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