The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

The Scottish Conservative vote has now doubled in a year and a half. A quiet realignment is going on in Scottish politics

SNP 47% (-3)
Con 27% (+6)
Lab 15% (-1)

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w9tablesforpublication300117.pdf

You didn't just copy and pase that from wee Ruthie's twitter feed did you? 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/truth-with-ruth/

no, i took it from a Scottish journalist who used the phrase "quiet realignment". which 14-15% to 27% in the polls seems to represent

[PokerBroker]

The Scottish Conservative vote has now doubled in a year and a half. A quiet realignment is going on in Scottish politics

SNP 47% (-3)
Con 27% (+6)
Lab 15% (-1)

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w9tablesforpublication300117.pdf

You didn't just copy and pase that from wee Ruthie's twitter feed did you? 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/truth-with-ruth/

no, i took it from a Scottish journalist who used the phrase "quiet realignment". which 14-15% to 27% in the polls seems to represent

If it were true, but WoS despite his flaws is very good at disecting this information. 

"And there’s even more. Despite Davidson’s claims, the poll DOESN’T show a 3% drop for the SNP and a 6% rise for the Tories. Compared to the previous Panelbase poll on Westminster voting intention – in September 2016 – the SNP haven’t dropped at all. They’re still on the same 47%, with the Tories up just 3%, from 24%."

[TightEnd]

in the last year and a half, they've gone from 14% to 27%

unarguable no? mostly at the expense of Labour, but a big increase nonetheless.

[SuuPRlim]

Let's have a series of referendums

Should we cut income tax?
Should VAT be lowered?
Should petrol duty be cut?
Should be have more bank holidays?
Should the NHS have more money?
Should class sizes in schools be smaller?
Should nursery care be free?
Should state pension be raised?

The results are easy to predict but impossible to action.

Representative democracy allows choices to be made by the voters MPs given conflicting options, it's not perfect but better than the other options.

A good point, but a little meaningless as these are idealistic principles - would people like to pay less tax, not pay nursery fees, have more holidays, pay less for petrol, of course, everyone would vote this way but like you say, impossible to action so we'd never actually have a referendum on these because no matter what you vote it aint happening.

The EU thing was different because it was pre-faced with, whatever you vote is what will happen, I get that "leaving the EU" is a pretty complicated thing and the manner in which it's carried out is not something they can just do, but the thing that annoys me about this is that if remain had won (which is what I wanted to happen) then leave wouldn't have had this chance to just over-rule it.

The politicians trying to block brexit are disgraceful imo, and if it happens that brexit is impossible to action then the £142m it cost to organise should be given back to all the schools and hospitals brexit was sposed to be in aid of.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Labour's Lisa Nandy is good i think

personable and connects well

here she is on Labour's challenge in connecting with their voters

I really like Lisa Nandy.  She's one of the few Labour MP's who gives me some hope that they can restore something from the wreckage when the Corbyn-lunacy ends in predicatable dismal failure at whatever point.

[DMorgan]

but its all going to be ok

John McDonnell: Labour will have polling lead over Tories within a year http://bit.ly/2jP615l

So the plan is for Brexit to just be a back burner issue while the negotiations are going on? gl with that

If the Greek bailout negotations were anything to go by this is pretty much gunna be a public hearing

[Doobs]

I found this fairly interesting, it was linked to in yet another thickos voted for Brexit article on the BBC website  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

Anyway, the more interesting one is here (though both are interesting).  It is a blog by the campaign director of the vote leave campaign  https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/

He makes a big play on the importance of the NHS promise, though doesn't really defend it.  I guess the ends justify the means.  Some things I didn't agree with, includiing some pretty strongly.  But for others, including his thoughts on Peston, I was thinking he is so right.  He is pretty scathing on Farage too.  It is a long read, but worth perservering with.

Apologies if Tighty has posted it already.

[Woodsey]

I found this fairly interesting, it was linked to in yet another thickos voted for Brexit article on the BBC website  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38762034

Anyway, the more interesting one is here (though both are interesting).  It is a blog by the campaign director of the vote leave campaign  https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/

He makes a big play on the importance of the NHS promise, though doesn't really defend it.  I guess the ends justify the means.  Some things I didn't agree with, includiing some pretty strongly.  But for others, including his thoughts on Peston, I was thinking he is so right.  He is pretty scathing on Farage too.  It is a long read, but worth perservering with.

Apologies if Tighty has posted it already.

It was us thicko racists that won it 😆😆😆

[TightEnd]

New EURef data confirms that Labour hold some of the most "Remainy" and "Leavey" seats in the U.K

hence not easy to form a strategy

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Bercow goes virtue-signalling

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 15-pt lead over Labour (down 1 from 2 weeks ago) -

42-27%

Asked how soon they expect to see Labour return to government, people replied:

At the 2020 election: 15% (was 16% when ICM asked the same question in September)

At the 2025 election: 18% (was 20%)

Total by 2025: 33% (was 36%)

At the 2030 election: 13% (no change)

At the 2035 election: 3% (no change)

At the 2040 election: 2% (was 4%)

Later than this, or never: 10% (was 6%)

Don’t know: 39% (was 37%)

[TightEnd]

Unprompted answers to Populus Polls question

'For you, what would a good Brexit mean?'

Lots of irreconcilable hopes & 1 in 6 say 'No Brexit'

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

it might be argued "he would say that, wouldn't he?"

but here it is

Brexit will cost UK 30,000 finance jobs, says Brussels thinktank

City’s EU rivals must harmonise approach to regulation to avoid banking risk, argues European commission-linked Bruegel

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/07/brexit-uk-finance-brussels-thinktank-city-banking-eu-bruegel?CMP=twt_gu

[PokerBroker]

I should quantify this by saying I hold Ian Murray in the same high esteem that I do sewer rats.  he's a sniveling little arsehole. 

With that said, he's outdone himself this time. 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-phantom-unmasked/

I hope he is de-selected at the next round of elections and Edinburgh South can get the realy Tory is desires. 

[TightEnd]

Interesting PMQ's today

good old fashioned ambush via leaked texts sent to the wrong person

Peston explains

https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1785200455138025