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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 13 (35.1%)
Labour - 8 (21.6%)
SNP - 0 (0%)
Lib Dem - 7 (18.9%)
Brexit - 1 (2.7%)
Green - 2 (5.4%)
Other - 1 (2.7%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 5 (13.5%)
Total Voters: 37

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 902401 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #75 on: September 02, 2015, 03:52:52 PM »

ok a vox pop then

Corbyn wins as an "anti-politics" "anti-blairite" candidate, attracting not only the traditional left wing but new labour party sign ups from previous non voters,   

is he electable in a general election?

yes/no

do his views on hamas/hezbollah/jews/america/isis/bin laden matter to you?

are his economic views credible?

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« Reply #76 on: September 02, 2015, 04:04:30 PM »

ok a vox pop then

Corbyn wins as an "anti-politics" "anti-blairite" candidate, attracting not only the traditional left wing but new labour party sign ups from previous non voters,   

is he electable in a general election?

yes/no

do his views on hamas/hezbollah/jews/america/isis/bin laden matter to you?

are his economic views credible?



I can only see him pushing away more labour voters than bringing in new ones. He will probably attract some former LibDem voters, but other than that he will cause the party to implode.

I think he will win the Labour election, but only because the other three candidates all cancel each other out. Majority of labour voters probably don't want him in, but their votes will be spread out three ways. If it was just him against one of the other three, he doesn't win IMO.

If you went on social media/read the news during the election this year, you would assume Labour would win by a landslide. The reality is it was just Labour supporters were much more vocal about it, and the Tories were 'shy Tories'. Within Labour this seems like the same thing, the Corbyn supporters are just way more vocal than everyone else.

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AndrewT
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« Reply #77 on: September 02, 2015, 04:10:07 PM »

do his views on hamas/hezbollah/jews/america/isis/bin laden matter to you?

As I understand it, he has had the opinion over the years that the thinking and decisions of the Israeli government may not be the absolute be all and end all of what should happen in the Middle East.

Not sure this is the same as his 'views on jews' (which I now think should be the title of a chat show discussing the merits of David Baddiel and Maureen Lipman)
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TightEnd
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« Reply #78 on: September 02, 2015, 04:14:40 PM »

he had a big spat with the jewish chronicle in august...agreed to be interviewed then backed out


they then published

http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/142144/the-key-questions-jeremy-corbyn-must-answer


we are continually told that to criticise corbyn for sharing a platform with hezbollah, having tea with gerry adams etc is to ignore the context within which his views are framed

of course, for balance, the mainly right leaning uk media doesn't care about context


when the subjects are raised on social media by journalists/commentators, you get shouted down by rabid supporters, much like the unionists did by the snp nat hard liners a year ago
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« Reply #79 on: September 02, 2015, 04:25:39 PM »

The establishment press know that people don't read much beyond the headlines, and won't read context, so they can just keep hammering away it at, knowing most people won't read the rebuttals.

Corbyn won't be able to just deflect that approach, without essentially taking on (and turning opinion against) the Sun/Mail/etc.
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« Reply #80 on: September 02, 2015, 04:29:46 PM »

ok a vox pop then

Corbyn wins as an "anti-politics" "anti-blairite" candidate, attracting not only the traditional left wing but new labour party sign ups from previous non voters,   

is he electable in a general election?

yes/no

do his views on hamas/hezbollah/jews/america/isis/bin laden matter to you?

are his economic views credible?



I can only see him pushing away more labour voters than bringing in new ones. He will probably attract some former LibDem voters, but other than that he will cause the party to implode.

I think he will win the Labour election, but only because the other three candidates all cancel each other out. Majority of labour voters probably don't want him in, but their votes will be spread out three ways. If it was just him against one of the other three, he doesn't win IMO.

If you went on social media/read the news during the election this year, you would assume Labour would win by a landslide. The reality is it was just Labour supporters were much more vocal about it, and the Tories were 'shy Tories'. Within Labour this seems like the same thing, the Corbyn supporters are just way more vocal than everyone else.



This just isn't true.

It's a STV election.

If no candidate gets over 50% in round one, the lowest scorer gets knocked out and their votes redistributed to the second preference of the electorate.

Only when one candidate gets 50%+ do we get a result.
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« Reply #81 on: September 02, 2015, 04:32:28 PM »

ok a vox pop then

Corbyn wins as an "anti-politics" "anti-blairite" candidate, attracting not only the traditional left wing but new labour party sign ups from previous non voters,   

is he electable in a general election?

yes/no

do his views on hamas/hezbollah/jews/america/isis/bin laden matter to you?

are his economic views credible?



I can only see him pushing away more labour voters than bringing in new ones. He will probably attract some former LibDem voters, but other than that he will cause the party to implode.

I think he will win the Labour election, but only because the other three candidates all cancel each other out. Majority of labour voters probably don't want him in, but their votes will be spread out three ways. If it was just him against one of the other three, he doesn't win IMO.

If you went on social media/read the news during the election this year, you would assume Labour would win by a landslide. The reality is it was just Labour supporters were much more vocal about it, and the Tories were 'shy Tories'. Within Labour this seems like the same thing, the Corbyn supporters are just way more vocal than everyone else.



This just isn't true.

It's a STV election.

If no candidate gets over 50% in round one, the lowest scorer gets knocked out and their votes redistributed to the second preference of the electorate.

Only when one candidate gets 50%+ do we get a result.

Did not know that, my bad.
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« Reply #82 on: September 02, 2015, 04:47:49 PM »

Agreed.  Politics going to get very interesting soon if Corbyn wins.  Proper debates and not just different shades of the same viewpoint.


What are the real odds, in your opinion, of Corbyn winning.

The next election or being Labour leader Red? 
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« Reply #83 on: September 02, 2015, 04:49:07 PM »

Or could we rename the general election thread?

Not to shit on your idea as you are spot on, just the general election thread was one of the best ones ever on Blonde and would be nice to preserve the legacy etc.

I agree that thread was superb.

Happy with what Tighty wants to do.
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« Reply #84 on: September 02, 2015, 04:50:26 PM »

ok a vox pop then

Corbyn wins as an "anti-politics" "anti-blairite" candidate, attracting not only the traditional left wing but new labour party sign ups from previous non voters,   

is he electable in a general election?

yes/no

do his views on hamas/hezbollah/jews/america/isis/bin laden matter to you?

are his economic views credible?



He might not be able to win an election, but he will give a voice to millions of the electorate who don't bother to vote at the moment.

I imagine if he is still Labour leader at the next general election, Labour's vote in inner cites and places of high unemployment and large numbers of immigrants will be extremely strong.

Might well get quite a lot of seats back in Scotland too.

But there will be a huge anti Corbyn vote in more prosperous areas.

I guess if austerity is really biting by 2020, he mighthave a chance, but he'll probably leave the nation utterly divided between the haves and the have nots.

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« Reply #85 on: September 02, 2015, 04:53:25 PM »

I don't think Labour has much chance in the next election whoever wins.

Better off having Corbyn as leader for the next election and massively increase and energise the core Labour vote.

And then Dan Jarvis, Stella Creasy or Keir Starmer take over for 2025 when we'll have a real shot again hopefully.
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"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
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« Reply #86 on: September 02, 2015, 05:01:09 PM »

I think he is more electable that people think - I think politics will be more interesting for him being there.

I do get troubled by the allegations about his views on middle east/america.  I appreciate that everything must be taken in context, but it seems there is a never ending stream of stories of him being in the wrong place at the wrong time which makes me wonder personally.

In terms of his economic policies, I'm undecided on the "people's quantative easing" which I am trying to read more about.  Seems to have support of economists but they seem to be largely Big State left wing types.  Need to educate myself more on that.

I don't think he has any credibility at all on talking of finding £130 billion down the back of the sofa via the tax gap.  This is a number calculated by his advisor Richard Murphy when other estimates are around £30 billion.  Also Murphy admits even if his number is correct then only 20% or so it collectible.

I don't think he has any credibility at all on finding £93 billion from reduced corporate welfare.  I read the report on this and it includes capital allowances which are vital for business.  Furthermore, in my opinion the author (who is not an accountant/economist) doesn't seem to understand how capital allowances work from my reading of his commentary.  He thinks if a company pays £100 for a truck they get £110 back from the Government.
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« Reply #87 on: September 02, 2015, 05:06:14 PM »

another one that i can't see being popular with middle england, let alone the flaklanders

giving the argentinians the falklands?

not a vote winner

remind me not to go in online comments boxes.

yuk

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« Reply #88 on: September 02, 2015, 05:16:04 PM »

another one that i can't see being popular with middle england, let alone the flaklanders

giving the argentinians the falklands?

not a vote winner

remind me not to go in online comments boxes.

yuk



Apart from the last line, which is completely pathetic, I agree with what the comment.

Why on earth would anyone ask Simon Weston what his opinion of Jeremy Corbyn's Falkland's policies are.

If you asked someone whose legs were blown off by an IRA bomb, they probably would have said the British government shouldn't negotiate with Sinn Fein.

Leave politics to politicians, not wounded soldiers whose views are clearly (and understandably) biased.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

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« Reply #89 on: September 02, 2015, 05:19:01 PM »

and corbyn's view that the falklands should be argentinian?

no comment about his geopolitical views either i note Keith.
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