The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Doobs]

Theresa May says dropping Easter from egg hunt event is ridiculous.

Has she really got nothing better to do than comment on some statememt that is barely true in the first place?  

I'm assuming she was asked the question - unlike some comments journalists get in this way, this seems like a fairly sensible way to get them to move onto more important things rather than trying to say that's not really news and them badgering her to answer it.

Or maybe just say "no comment" or "feck off, it says easter all over the promotional material you clowns". 

Then they just move on to the next question.  It is how press confernces work.  Mrs May isn't strapped in a chair with her nipples tweaked until she comes out with the most ridiculous overeaction to a nothing story. 

Come on Corbyn, give her a kick.

[Doobs]

There is a really big story in amongst this one that should be better known.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39481110

I am an actuary by profession and for pretty much my entire working life, life expectancy has been improving.  It has been improving so much that the rate of improvement was built into all our projections.  The improvement was such that you could estimate mortality rates were improving by 1.5/2% every year for men and women.  The reasons were pretty clear; medical advances have been happening over the years that have improved our survival chances from all manner of diseases.  In addition we have seen a reduction in the amount of adults that smoke, thereby increasing life expectancy too.  This rate of improvement has helped make company pensions unaffordable and caused all manner of fear over the future cost of state benefits from pensioners.  It was so ingrained that when anybody slagged off the NHS, you could honestly point out, but look how much the life expectancy has been improving in our Country.  As recently as last month, I saw a story that we needed to increase the state pension age to allow for this increased life expectancy. 

For the last five years or so, something very odd has been happening.  The rate of improvement first of all stalled, and now it may even be reversing.  Whilst there may be some bad things happening, such as resistence to antibiotics and the failure of the flu jab in 2015, it is hard to get away from the conclusion that the cuts in social care and state benefits are likely to be playing a major part in the increase in deaths.  Surely now isn't the time to be reducing Corporation tax, boosting ISA saving limits etc?     

The irony of this, is that the aged are big supporters of the Conservative party and most have voted to increase the economic turmoil through Brexit.   

 

[Woodsey]

Surely rising obesity is the biggest factor?

As a self confessed fat bastard I know I will be blaming myself for the shit lifestyle choices I make rather than pointing the finger at the healthcare system should something happen.

[Doobs]

Surely rising obesity is the biggest factor?

As a self confessed fat bastard I know I will be blaming myself for the shit lifestyle choices I make rather than pointing the finger at the healthcare system should something happen.

Obesity has been rising for years whilst mortality has been falling.  This isn't a minor change, it is pretty stark if you see the graphs.  And it isn't a poll of 100 people, it is whole population data, so 64 million have been included.  So right bow 50,000 more people are dying each year than you would expected if you just assumed the trend would continue 5 years ago. 

There has been the odd bounce over the years after bad winters or a bad dose of flu.  But this is 5 years in now and still no sign that the previous trend is going to restart. 

[Woodsey]

Surely rising obesity is the biggest factor?

As a self confessed fat bastard I know I will be blaming myself for the shit lifestyle choices I make rather than pointing the finger at the healthcare system should something happen.

Obesity has been rising for years whilst mortality has been falling.  This isn't a minor change, it is pretty stark if you see the graphs.  And it isn't a poll of 100 people, it is whole population data, so 64 million have been included.  So right bow 50,000 more people are dying each year than you would expected if you just assumed the trend would continue 5 years ago. 

There has been the odd bounce over the years after bad winters or a bad dose of flu.  But this is 5 years in now and still no sign that the previous trend is going to restart. 

The general consensus from a fair few presentations I've seen at medical conferences over the years is that is will start to affect overall life expectancy across the population at some point, it will obviously affect the individual life expectancy of people with obesity, but it's such a problem in the population that it's a ticking time bomb that will have a large impact down the road at some point if it isn't already, this could be the start of it.

I know some people like to blame the Tories for everything, but when you suggested life expectancy increases have stalled or been reversing, the first thing that sprung to mind wasn't to blame the Tories, it was worse general health of the population because of poor lifestyle choices.

If it rains on Easter weekend when I'm on the south coast do I get to blame the Tories then? 

[rfgqqabc]

Surely rising obesity is the biggest factor?

As a self confessed fat bastard I know I will be blaming myself for the shit lifestyle choices I make rather than pointing the finger at the healthcare system should something happen.

Obesity has been rising for years whilst mortality has been falling.  This isn't a minor change, it is pretty stark if you see the graphs.  And it isn't a poll of 100 people, it is whole population data, so 64 million have been included.  So right bow 50,000 more people are dying each year than you would expected if you just assumed the trend would continue 5 years ago. 

There has been the odd bounce over the years after bad winters or a bad dose of flu.  But this is 5 years in now and still no sign that the previous trend is going to restart. 

The general consensus from a fair few presentations I've seen at medical conferences over the years is that is will start to affect overall life expectancy across the population at some point, it will obviously affect the individual life expectancy of people with obesity, but it's such a problem in the population that it's a ticking time bomb that will have a large impact down the road at some point if it isn't already, this could be the start of it.

I know some people like to blame the Tories for everything, but when you suggested life expectancy increases have stalled or been reversing, the first thing that sprung to mind wasn't to blame the Tories, it was worse general health of the population because of poor lifestyle choices.

If it rains on Easter weekend when I'm on the south coast do I get to blame the Tories then? 

The life expectancy of the population is probably something you want your government to take responsibility for. There has to be a link between government and lifestyle choices. Furthermore, governments can introduce anti-obesity legislation, see the soft drink industry in Mexico for example. Do you not think increasing tax on cigarettes affects usage? Would you credit that to government in power or to the weather? You can't really tell me you believe the government has zero control over the general health of the population with a straight face, can you?

This is why party terms need to be longer so you can effectively judge these sorts of policies. I don't think its particularly a party problem, more of a societal one. But without changing the attitudes of the people in power it is hard to shape the overall course of the population.

[Woodsey]

Surely rising obesity is the biggest factor?

As a self confessed fat bastard I know I will be blaming myself for the shit lifestyle choices I make rather than pointing the finger at the healthcare system should something happen.

Obesity has been rising for years whilst mortality has been falling.  This isn't a minor change, it is pretty stark if you see the graphs.  And it isn't a poll of 100 people, it is whole population data, so 64 million have been included.  So right bow 50,000 more people are dying each year than you would expected if you just assumed the trend would continue 5 years ago. 

There has been the odd bounce over the years after bad winters or a bad dose of flu.  But this is 5 years in now and still no sign that the previous trend is going to restart. 

The general consensus from a fair few presentations I've seen at medical conferences over the years is that is will start to affect overall life expectancy across the population at some point, it will obviously affect the individual life expectancy of people with obesity, but it's such a problem in the population that it's a ticking time bomb that will have a large impact down the road at some point if it isn't already, this could be the start of it.

I know some people like to blame the Tories for everything, but when you suggested life expectancy increases have stalled or been reversing, the first thing that sprung to mind wasn't to blame the Tories, it was worse general health of the population because of poor lifestyle choices.

If it rains on Easter weekend when I'm on the south coast do I get to blame the Tories then? 

The life expectancy of the population is probably something you want your government to take responsibility for. There has to be a link between government and lifestyle choices. Furthermore, governments can introduce anti-obesity legislation, see the soft drink industry in Mexico for example. Do you not think increasing tax on cigarettes affects usage? Would you credit that to government in power or to the weather? You can't really tell me you believe the government has zero control over the general health of the population with a straight face, can you?

This is why party terms need to be longer so you can effectively judge these sorts of policies. I don't think its particularly a party problem, more of a societal one. But without changing the attitudes of the people in power it is hard to shape the overall course of the population.

Of course it has some control, but the buck stops with us first and foremost. We have to make the right choices in life and if we choose to ignore them no amount of money will ever be enough to solve the problem....

[arbboy]

Big increases in the use of recreational drugs and alcohol use amongst the middle classes/middle aged over the past 20 odd years must be a decent factor in this alongside the obesity argument.

[Woodsey]

Big increases in the use of recreational drugs and alcohol use amongst the middle classes/middle aged over the past 20 odd years must be a decent factor in this alongside the obesity argument.

Yup that too....

[Doobs]

Surely rising obesity is the biggest factor?

As a self confessed fat bastard I know I will be blaming myself for the shit lifestyle choices I make rather than pointing the finger at the healthcare system should something happen.

Obesity has been rising for years whilst mortality has been falling.  This isn't a minor change, it is pretty stark if you see the graphs.  And it isn't a poll of 100 people, it is whole population data, so 64 million have been included.  So right bow 50,000 more people are dying each year than you would expected if you just assumed the trend would continue 5 years ago. 

There has been the odd bounce over the years after bad winters or a bad dose of flu.  But this is 5 years in now and still no sign that the previous trend is going to restart. 

The general consensus from a fair few presentations I've seen at medical conferences over the years is that is will start to affect overall life expectancy across the population at some point, it will obviously affect the individual life expectancy of people with obesity, but it's such a problem in the population that it's a ticking time bomb that will have a large impact down the road at some point if it isn't already, this could be the start of it.

I know some people like to blame the Tories for everything, but when you suggested life expectancy increases have stalled or been reversing, the first thing that sprung to mind wasn't to blame the Tories, it was worse general health of the population because of poor lifestyle choices.

If it rains on Easter weekend when I'm on the south coast do I get to blame the Tories then? 

The life expectancy of the population is probably something you want your government to take responsibility for. There has to be a link between government and lifestyle choices. Furthermore, governments can introduce anti-obesity legislation, see the soft drink industry in Mexico for example. Do you not think increasing tax on cigarettes affects usage? Would you credit that to government in power or to the weather? You can't really tell me you believe the government has zero control over the general health of the population with a straight face, can you?

This is why party terms need to be longer so you can effectively judge these sorts of policies. I don't think its particularly a party problem, more of a societal one. But without changing the attitudes of the people in power it is hard to shape the overall course of the population.

Of course it has some control, but the buck stops with us first and foremost. We have to make the right choices in life and if we choose to ignore them no amount of money will ever be enough to solve the problem....

Of course there is some responsibility for each individual, but as I said these are whole population statistics and if the whole population is starting to die younger then the Government should carry some responsibility.

People were eating lard, smoking fags, covering walls with asbestos, working down pits etc for years and the mortality rate was still constantly falling for years and years.  Now it has stopped, and it is guesswork which way it goes from now.  Something has changed and there is a good chance that there are consequences from all these shitty policies.  I accept some of it couldn't be helped as Government spending needed to be brought under control.  But when you are cutting corporation tax at the same time as you cut social care funding, it isn't something that you need to do.    

Mortality improved right through the Thatcher years.  World War II caused less of a blip etc.

[Doobs]

Big increases in the use of recreational drugs and alcohol use amongst the middle classes/middle aged over the past 20 odd years must be a decent factor in this alongside the obesity argument.

Yup that too....

You can't have paid much attention in these lectures.

It is those in their 70s, 80s and 90s that do most of the dying.  That is where there is a lot of data, and that is where the changes are been noticed.

If the deaths of people in their 20s doubled through recreational drug use then it would barely make a difference after all.  And FWIW Alcohol and cigarettes are way bigger killers than any illegal drug, and alcohol and cigarette use are both falling.

[Woodsey]

Big increases in the use of recreational drugs and alcohol use amongst the middle classes/middle aged over the past 20 odd years must be a decent factor in this alongside the obesity argument.

Yup that too....

You can't have paid much attention in these lectures.

It is those in their 70s, 80s and 90s that do most of the dying.  That is where there is a lot of data, and that is where the changes are been noticed.

If the deaths of people in their 20s doubled through recreational drug use then it would barely make a difference after all.  And FWIW Alcohol and cigarettes are way bigger killers than any illegal drug, and alcohol and cigarette use are both falling.

I pay a lot of attention, I sell medicines for liver conditions and listen to the issues surrounding that exact subject just about every week and it was alcohol I was mainly referring to. The big shift in this area in recent years is people presenting with serious illnesses, dying and needing transplants a lot younger than ever before, not just the oldies these days....

[nirvana]

There is a really big story in amongst this one that should be better known.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39481110

I am an actuary by profession and for pretty much my entire working life, life expectancy has been improving.  It has been improving so much that the rate of improvement was built into all our projections.  The improvement was such that you could estimate mortality rates were improving by 1.5/2% every year for men and women.  The reasons were pretty clear; medical advances have been happening over the years that have improved our survival chances from all manner of diseases.  In addition we have seen a reduction in the amount of adults that smoke, thereby increasing life expectancy too.  This rate of improvement has helped make company pensions unaffordable and caused all manner of fear over the future cost of state benefits from pensioners.  It was so ingrained that when anybody slagged off the NHS, you could honestly point out, but look how much the life expectancy has been improving in our Country.  As recently as last month, I saw a story that we needed to increase the state pension age to allow for this increased life expectancy. 

For the last five years or so, something very odd has been happening.  The rate of improvement first of all stalled, and now it may even be reversing.  Whilst there may be some bad things happening, such as resistence to antibiotics and the failure of the flu jab in 2015, it is hard to get away from the conclusion that the cuts in social care and state benefits are likely to be playing a major part in the increase in deaths.  Surely now isn't the time to be reducing Corporation tax, boosting ISA saving limits etc?     

The irony of this, is that the aged are big supporters of the Conservative party and most have voted to increase the economic turmoil through Brexit.   

Its an interesting subject - seems hard to believe that a couple of years of the LibCons could make a difference in the numbers. Labour, for all their faults did pile money into these areas, cut waiting lists etc, be interested to know if their most recent period in office showed higher than typical increases in life expectancy.

I imagine, but don't know of course, that the general sedentary/obese thing has some kind of lag in terms of impact - ie could we just be having the first generation of extra fatties getting into their 50s/60s

Quite bizarre, I agree, that any oldies without pots full of cash would vote Tory.

[nirvana]

Quite fascinating reading all about this subject on the ONS site - bit too complicated for me but fascinating all the same

[TightEnd]

The 18 months of Corbyn's leadership that seem like 18 years. In one paragraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/04/local-elections-will-car-crash-labour-not-enough-have-jeremy/

Click to see full-size image.