The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Doobs]

Whilst they look nice there must be something off with the calculations - according to the first one in 2015 UKIP picked up as many votes from ex-LibDems as they did from ex-Tories, and more ex-Libdems than ex-Labour voters.

There were many more lib dems had to find a new party than labour and conservatives?  Devon and Cornwall voted leave too, and weren't the lib dems strong down there too? 

Might just be that the Lib Dem vote consists of a much bigger proportion of floating voters than Labour and Conservatives.  I know a fair few people who I imagine always vote labour or always vote conservative.   Really struggling to think of anyone who I think always votes lib dem.

[AndrewT]

Whilst they look nice there must be something off with the calculations - according to the first one in 2015 UKIP picked up as many votes from ex-LibDems as they did from ex-Tories, and more ex-Libdems than ex-Labour voters.

There were many more lib dems had to find a new party than labour and conservatives?  Devon and Cornwall voted leave too, and weren't the lib dems strong down there too? 

Might just be that the Lib Dem vote consists of a much bigger proportion of floating voters than Labour and Conservatives.  I know a fair few people who I imagine always vote labour or always vote conservative.   Really struggling to think of anyone who I think always votes lib dem.

That's a good point - also LibDems would have a sizable proportion of 'sod Tories and Labour' protest votes that could easily switch to the protest party du jour

[PokerBroker]

Surprised this wasn't picked up in the same poll. 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15215078.Thumbs_up_for_Nicola_Sturgeon_as_other_politicians_see_negative_approval_rating/

[TightEnd]

i find this remarkable

not sure why she is so "bullet proof"with electors


YouGov (Theresa May doing well minus badly by xtab):

Men +20
Women +25
18-24 -5
25-49 +8
50-64 +32
65+ +71
ABC1 +19
C2DE +29
ALL +23

[TightEnd]

anyone noticed the real blitz of policy stuff from Labour?

wonder if it is cutting through?

Popular policies aren't enough for Labour, writes stephenkb

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/04/popular-policies-arent-enough-labour

[AndrewT]

anyone noticed the real blitz of policy stuff from Labour?

wonder if it is cutting through?

Popular policies aren't enough for Labour, writes stephenkb

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/04/popular-policies-arent-enough-labour

Will have zero cutthrough - the only way I noticed that Labour had announced policy stuff is through comments from Corbyn et al that the media weren't reporting on them because they were writing 'Corbyn is shit' stories instead.

[nirvana]

i find this remarkable

not sure why she is so "bullet proof"with electors


YouGov (Theresa May doing well minus badly by xtab):

Men +20
Women +25
18-24 -5
25-49 +8
50-64 +32
65+ +71
ABC1 +19
C2DE +29
ALL +23

I think it's because she's been dealt a tough hand and is just quietly going about things. Could blow up at some point but not yet. Compared with the sneering whingers from all other parties, with the irrelevant exception of Corbyn, this makes her look powerful, statesmanlike and competent. Probs temporary but I think it's how she.looks right now

[TightEnd]

a really good read

"The problem with Boris Johnson is not that he's America's poodle. It's that he's a disorganised narcissist"

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21720630-boris-johnson-embodies-weakness-britains-foreign-policy-foreign-office-needs-learn?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/bagehottheforeignofficeneedstolearnsomenewtricks

[TightEnd]

A visual depiction of recent polls

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

this is interesting. in ComRes Indy/S Mirror poll tonight. Half sample asked reaction to policies with LAB named, other half with Corbyn named

[TightEnd]

ComRes/Independent/S Mirror:

CON 46 (+4)
LAB 25 (=)
LD 11 (-1)
UKIP 9 (-1)
GRN 4 (=)
SNP 4 (-1)
N=2,029
11th-13th http://www.comresglobal.com/our-work/poll-archive/ …

Biggest Tory lead in any poll since 2009, biggest lead for Tories in govt since eve of 1983 election when Thatcher won 144-seat majority

article accompanying http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-s-conservatives-are-21-points-ahead-of-labour-in-a-new-poll-a7685271.html

[TightEnd]

now the interesting thing is that the labour blitz on policy has been quite popular from this survey , and the blind test didn't reveal many worse attitudes when you ascribe them to corbyn not Labour

Click to see full-size image.

[neeko]

now the interesting thing is that the labour blitz on policy has been quite popular from this survey , and the blind test didn't reveal many worse attitudes when you ascribe them to corbyn not Labour

Click to see full-size image.

I wonder what proportion of the population understand what a national investment bank even means?

Would love to see the figures of how many are against govt borrowing but for an investment bank.

[TightEnd]

LAB drops to just 23% in new YouGov Times poll

CON 44%+2
LAB 23% -2
LD 12% +1
UKIP 10%-1

YouGov's 12% LD share is highest since GE2015 and suggests a LAB to LD swing of 6

YouGov/Times also gives the Conservatives a 21 point lead (+4). Ties with y'day's ComRes for the biggest Tory lead while govt since Sep 1987

Meanwhile Opinium gives Con 30% Lab 10% (behind SNP) in the Scotland/Westminster voting intention poll

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.