The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Polls over the weekend have shown the lead softening a touch, con down 1-2, lab up 2-3 ish

Electoral Calculus‏ @ElectCalculus

PREDICTION UPDATE: Con majority of 162.

Con 406,
Lab 168,
SNP 45,
Lib 8.

[TightEnd]

yougov yesterday for example

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

in breaking news i was actually part of the big yougov sunday polls.

thrilling stuff

there were some interesting results from their EU questions which follow....

[TightEnd]

51% those polled by Yougov /ST say Britain should stay Single Market member.

26% say not.

this is not on offer from main parties



the pro-Single Market coalition is 80% of Remain voters and, crucially, 25% of Leave voters - rather interesting numbers...

[TightEnd]

The breakdown on Single Market membership is fascinating: 2015 vote intention, only UKIP voters against net +ve in every age group & region

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

the Customs Union is even more popular. 57% of British voters say yes to staying in, 17% against, say yougov / ST

Click to see full-size image.

again rather interestingly the net +40% approval for staying in Customs Union, driven by 79% of Remain voters and 41% of Leave voters

[TightEnd]

and these breakdowns show frankly large support across every age group, social demographic, region for Customs Union even UKIP 2015 +10

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

jeremy cliffe is the berlin correspondent of the economist and he jotted down the following

Today's FAZ report on May's disastrous dinner with Juncker - briefed by senior Commission sources - is absolutely damning.

1) May had said she wanted to talk not just Brexit but also world problems; but in practice it fell to Juncker to propose one to discuss.

2) May has made clear to the Commission that she fully expects to be reelected as PM.

3) It is thought [in the Commission] that May wants to frustrate the daily business of the EU27, to improve her own negotiating position.

4) May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ case against her data retention measures - three times.

5) EU side were astonished at May's suggestion that EU/UK expats issue could be sorted at EU Council meeting at the end of June.

6) Juncker objected to this timetable as way too optimistic given complexities, eg on rights to health care.

7) Juncker pulled two piles of paper from his bag: Croatia's EU entry deal, Canada's free trade deal. His point: Brexit will be v v complex.

8 ) May wanted to work through the Brexit talks in monthly, 4-day blocks; all confidential until the end of the process.

9) Commission said impossible to reconcile this with need to square off member states & European Parliament, so documents must be published.

10) EU side felt May was seeing whole thing through rose-tinted-glasses. "Let us make Brexit a success" she told them.

11) Juncker countered that Britain will now be a third state, not even (like Turkey) in the customs union: "Brexit cannot be a success".

12) May seemed surprised by this and seemed to the EU side not to have been fully briefed.

13) She cited her own JHA opt-out negotiations as home sec as a model: a mutually useful agreement meaning lots on paper, little in reality.

14) May's reference to the JHA (justice and home affairs) opt-outs set off alarm signals for the EU side. This was what they had feared.

15) ie as home sec May opted out of EU measures (playing to UK audience) then opted back in, and wrongly thinks she can do same with Brexit

16) "The more I hear, the more sceptical I become" said Juncker (this was only half way through the dinner)

17) May then insisted to Juncker et al that UK owes EU no money because there is nothing to that effect in the treaties.

18) Her guests then informed her that the EU is not a golf club

19) Davis then objected that EU could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said Juncker, then no trade deal.

20) ...leaving EU27 with UK's unpaid bills will involve national parliaments in process (a point that Berlin had made *repeatedly* before).

21) "I leave Downing St ten times as sceptical as I was before" Juncker told May as he left

22) Next morning at c7am Juncker called Merkel on her mobile, said May living in another galaxy & totally deluding herself

23) Merkel quickly reworked her speech to Bundestag to include her now-famous "some in Britain still have illusions" comment

24) FAZ concludes: May in election mode & playing to crowd, but what use is a big majority won by nurturing delusions of Brexit hardliners?

25) Juncker's team now think it more likely than not that Brexit talks will collapse & hope Brits wake up to harsh realities in time.

26) What to make of it all? Obviously this leak is a highly tactical move by Commission. But contents deeply worrying for UK nonetheless.

27) The report points to major communications/briefing problems. Important messages from Berlin & Brussels seem not to be getting through.

28) Presumably as a result, May seems to be labouring under some really rather fundamental misconceptions about Brexit & the EU27.

29) Also clear that (as some of us have been warning for a while...) No 10 should expect every detail of the Brexit talks to leak.

30/30) Sorry for the long thread. And a reminder: full credit for all the above reporting on the May/Juncker dinner goes to the FAZ.

--

if you are a remainer, a confirmation bias that the whole thing will be a disaster

if you are a leaver, a confirmation bias that we should be leaving!

[Longines]

https://www.ft.com/content/74e5fe4b-b1e4-3f9c-9e9b-73316872e144

Three articles on the EU negotiating position. Very dry but a fascinating read.

[neeko]

Who is a good pro Brexit person on Twitter I should follow?

[Ironside]

is that a "good person" that is pro brexit or a pro brexit person who is "good to follow"

[neeko]

is that a "good person" that is pro brexit or a pro brexit person who is "good to follow"

I tried to limit my prerequisites- just someone who will balance the depressing views from the other side.

Oh, and (probably impossible but) an economist / political commentator who looks at evidence and gives a reasoned assessment rather than has a preconceived set of ideas then cherry picks evidence that proves they are right.

[TightEnd]

Try @montie @iainmartin @lordashcroft @danielhannan. All sensible enough without you having to veer into ukip land

[DaveShoelace]

Try @montie @iainmartin @lordashcroft @danielhannan. All sensible enough without you having to veer into ukip land

Yeah I would have put Daniel Hannan for this too. Little bit over the top rah rah excited about the whole thing but a pretty interesting eloquent fella and seems nice enough.

[neeko]

Try @montie @iainmartin @lordashcroft @danielhannan. All sensible enough without you having to veer into ukip land

Thanks, will have a look, I follow @andrew_lilico so get to see some of their tweets.