The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[nirvana]

Cheers for the articles, some interesting stuff.

Pretty depressing how the Tories will be able to wander through this whole campaign with no party being able to articulate a genuine alternative in an attractive way.

Surprised how little traction a 'remain' alternative is able to muster. The remain view has been marginalised really successfully by the vocal remainers - still just whining rather than being able to articulate a European vision that makes sense to the wider UK population.

Ridiculous how the loudest labour message of the campaign so far is that Day 1 of a labour government (chortle Starmer, chortle) will see Euro nationals told they are safe to stay here. Man, the guys you're appealing to with this sentiment can't vote, ffs, how stupid are you that posturing as some kind of leftie nicey soft Brexitys is more important to you than winning an election.

Incred, well not really, how the Tory remainers go 100% pragmatic to secure their careers ahead of any philosophical concerns over Brexit.

Most def the most fkd up political backdrop to any election I've witnessed.

Apart from the 1983 election, I don't think I've ever felt so depressed by the choice in front of us.

[The Camel]

Any thoughts on the Richmond Park constituency?

Most interesting betting heat of the whole election.

[TightEnd]

Any thoughts on the Richmond Park constituency?

Most interesting betting heat of the whole election.

what are you thinking?

Zak's back. still though a very remain area, why wouldn't the lib dems win again?

[TightEnd]

Conservative isn't happy with the BBC

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

YouGov:

Scots oppose Indy by 55% to 45%.

Key findings:

49% of Scottish Remainers oppose Independence.
58% of women/76% of over 65s oppose.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Any thoughts on the Richmond Park constituency?

Most interesting betting heat of the whole election.

what are you thinking?

Zak's back. still though a very remain area, why wouldn't the lib dems win again?

pose this question back to you

Here is Bedford. How do Labour win? What votes go where? Seat is (roughly) 52% Leave.

Click to see full-size image.

the LD vote was 15% lower in 2015 than 2010

[TightEnd]

"Of those who plan to abandon UKIP for another party, c. 73% are switching to Cons & just 14% to Labour."

http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-general-election-ukip-why-collapse-matters-conservative-majority-theresa-may/

[TightEnd]

A disastrous dinner date in London

How did the May-Juncker dinner go? ‘Badly. Really badly.’

http://www.politico.eu/article/britains-brexit-denial/

[TightEnd]

Swing to govt in 5/16 post-war elections.

Record pro-govt swing is 4% (1983) which would be emulated if wider than C 40% to L 25% in 2017

[TightEnd]

this is facinating

focus groups talk the election

What would make you vote Labour? "change leader/remove Corbyn/another leader". Corbyn's a "joke/silly/untrustworthy"

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-turning-off-labour-voters-in-slough-huffpost-uk-edelman-focus-group-finds_uk_5904443ce4b05c39767fcab0?ir=UK+Politics&utm_hp_ref=uk-politics

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

this is an important leader given murdoch influence

The Sun Says today: Be bold Theresa, dump the Triple Lock and help the struggling young.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

for nerds

European Council Brexit negotiation guidelines, just adopted in full, unanimously by the EU27:

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/european-council/2017/04/29-euco-guidelines_pdf/

[TightEnd]

Jeremy Corbyn's speech shows there are two Labour election campaigns underway

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/jeremy-corbyns-personal-speech-shows-that-there-are-two-labour-campaigns-underway/

[TightEnd]

Opinium poll has LAB getting a touch closer

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LD: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

LD vote in line with pollster house effect

[TightEnd]

YouGov/Times:

CON 44 (-1)
LAB 31 (+2)
LD 11 (+1)
UKIP 6 (-1)
GRN 3 (=)

27th-28th April N=1,612

so thats Lab above 30% in both polls yesterday