The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

this is interesting if a little heavy

economist supports labour's keynesian tax and spend....

New post: But do the numbers add up? https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/but-do-numbers-add-up.html …

the alternative view

Manifesto madness: The Labour Party raises the bar for electoral suicide notes

http://www.economist.com/blogs/speakerscorner/2017/05/manifesto-madness?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/

[TightEnd]

"The Lib Dems might not look v important at this election. But they cd become v important after it." Andrew Grice


"The Lib Dem manifesto has put too many eggs in the Brexit basket

The problem is that the 48 per cent have splintered. The British way, it seems, is to move on, and get on with Brexit"

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/lib-dem-manifesto-brexit-tim-farron-eggs-in-basket-a7740561.html

[TightEnd]

Why is Labour's support is holding up? YouGov's chris curtis takes a look and finds two reasons

1/ Those Labour voters Corbyn has driven off are being offset by non-Labour voters he has attracted

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/how-labours-support-holding/

2/ 2015 Labour voters who don't like Corbyn have been coming back into the fold and deciding to vote Labour in 2017

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/how-labours-support-holding/

Click to see full-size image.

BUT Labour must beware - their vote is softer (less committed) than the Conservatives' https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/how-labours-support-holding/ …

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Jeremy Hunt on Dilnot £72k cap: "Yes we're dropping it, because we don't think it's fair on different generations paying taxes" BBCR4 today

Huge difference between May and Cameron - she will wage the inter-generational war, even though it threatens the grey vote.

Cameron of course would say that he never had the poll lead/majority to do it and get in/ get back in

[TightEnd]

Lots of anticipation over today's Ipsos-MORI poll due about noon. Tweets overnight suggested that it might be a cracker

come on admit it,you will now change your plans to make sure you are now online at midday to see it

[The Camel]

Click to see full-size image.

He must be toast in the post election reshuffle, surely?

[TightEnd]

Manifesto will propose extra charges for businesses who employ non-EU migrants and higher charges for migrants who use the NHS

A firm that employs a non EU migrant will have to pay £2k to do so, for example

Personally i find it a distateful policy but pretty sure the right wing will approve

i suppose practically its a counterpoint to the interventionist "red theresa" stuff elsewhere to throw the right wing a bone.

[TightEnd]

and this sort of stuff is why she needs to do these things

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

woah

Striking word cloud from British Election Survey conference today on what voters think is most important issue facing the country.

Click to see full-size image.

[ripple11]

woah

Striking word cloud from British Election Survey conference today on what voters think is most important issue facing the country.

Click to see full-size image.

Hence keeping the sound bite " immigration target of under 100,000" to keep the brexit voters on side.
She knows not a hope in hell of ever achieving it if you include students....who of course bring in about 7 billion to the economy, and the vast majority leave after studies.
If you want to keep the target then why oh why doesn't she exclude students and make it a realistic target for "real" immigration

[TightEnd]

Economic impact of loss of international students just in England

Public support student migration and it has huge economic benefits. Seems very strange to me.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems all support higher taxes and more state intervention - sense of a new political era.

Discuss.

[TightEnd]

Exactly one month since Theresa May called the election, the Tories' poll average is up four points. Lab is up five, Ukip down six.

Click to see full-size image.

i think i need to ignore this thread for a day. getting nothing done at all in real life.

[TightEnd]

i lied

one more

Ipsos-MORI

Con 49 (nc)
Lab 34 (+8)
LD 7 (-7)
Greens 3 (+2) 
UKIP 2 (-2)

the poll referred to earlier

the labour manifesto bounce...

[Sheriff Fatman]

i lied

one more

Ipsos-MORI

Con 49 (nc)
Lab 34 (+8)
LD 7 (-7)
Greens 3 (+2) 
UKIP 2 (-2)

the poll referred to earlier

the labour manifesto bounce...

Not much use to them if it's coming from the Lib Dem vote though.