The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[neeko]

Has anyone yet proposed a solution to the Gordan knot of free trade or freedom of movement?

thats what the two year negotiation is for.......

I was under the impression that's what it's not for.

The two years is to physically leave and sort out all the processes etc that need to occur for that to happen.

Trade negotiations come AFTER that?

but you have to sort out the freedom of movement issue in that two years....and you can't do that in isolation so you have to sort out the framework for trade even if you don't have the nitty gritty....

ie are we going into an EEA, to give one example

as it stands, to answer neeko's question the main stumbling block is the EU will require freedom of movement to give access to the single market and the UK can't allow freedom of movement (according to many leave politicians) but wants access

so there need to be compromises somewhere

I fear politics has changed and now compromise is now seen as capitulation and a failure of the political elite to do what the leave vote expect.

French and German elections in 2017 mean there will be nothing happening until after then, as neither Hollande or Merkel will drop the freedom of movement demand until after these results.

To use up more metaphors- a don't see a way to square the circle.

I imagine that delay and dithering will be the solution with no article 50 implemented "until the appropriate juncture, in the fullness of time, in due course" aka never and then have a general election to muddy the waters and mean it never gets exercised.

[TightEnd]

Has anyone yet proposed a solution to the Gordan knot of free trade or freedom of movement?

thats what the two year negotiation is for.......

I was under the impression that's what it's not for.

The two years is to physically leave and sort out all the processes etc that need to occur for that to happen.

Trade negotiations come AFTER that?

but you have to sort out the freedom of movement issue in that two years....and you can't do that in isolation so you have to sort out the framework for trade even if you don't have the nitty gritty....

ie are we going into an EEA, to give one example

as it stands, to answer neeko's question the main stumbling block is the EU will require freedom of movement to give access to the single market and the UK can't allow freedom of movement (according to many leave politicians) but wants access

so there need to be compromises somewhere

I fear politics has changed and now compromise is now seen as capitulation and a failure of the political elite to do what the leave vote expect.

French and German elections in 2017 mean there will be nothing happening until after then, as neither Hollande or Merkel will drop the freedom of movement demand until after these results.

To use up more metaphors- a don't see a way to square the circle.

I imagine that delay and dithering will be the solution with no article 50 implemented "until the appropriate juncture, in the fullness of time, in due course" aka never and then have a general election to muddy the waters and mean it never gets exercised.

i think it is a tremendous time not to be in government. little upside from having to negotiate it all and plenty of downside

the issue then becomes can any opposition party capitalise on it and get elected next time? the answer to that appears to be no and the only party i can see making a lot of progress is UKIP as people feel let down, immigration is still high and another protest vote comes?

4m voted UKIP in 2015, add in some more labour heartlands in 2020 and that 4m becomes? 5m? 6m?

under FPTP UKIP won 1 seat but were second in 50 more. i think i read that another 1.5m voters gets them a slew of seats, mainly old labour/northern/inner city seats 

[The Camel]

Has anyone yet proposed a solution to the Gordan knot of free trade or freedom of movement?

thats what the two year negotiation is for.......

I was under the impression that's what it's not for.

The two years is to physically leave and sort out all the processes etc that need to occur for that to happen.

Trade negotiations come AFTER that?

but you have to sort out the freedom of movement issue in that two years....and you can't do that in isolation so you have to sort out the framework for trade even if you don't have the nitty gritty....

ie are we going into an EEA, to give one example

as it stands, to answer neeko's question the main stumbling block is the EU will require freedom of movement to give access to the single market and the UK can't allow freedom of movement (according to many leave politicians) but wants access

so there need to be compromises somewhere

I fear politics has changed and now compromise is now seen as capitulation and a failure of the political elite to do what the leave vote expect.

French and German elections in 2017 mean there will be nothing happening until after then, as neither Hollande or Merkel will drop the freedom of movement demand until after these results.

To use up more metaphors- a don't see a way to square the circle.

I imagine that delay and dithering will be the solution with no article 50 implemented "until the appropriate juncture, in the fullness of time, in due course" aka never and then have a general election to muddy the waters and mean it never gets exercised.

i think it is a tremendous time not to be in government. little upside from having to negotiate it all and plenty of downside

the issue then becomes can any opposition party capitalise on it and get elected next time? the answer to that appears to be no and the only party i can see making a lot of progress is UKIP as people feel let down, immigration is still high and another protest vote comes?

4m voted UKIP in 2015, add in some more labour heartlands in 2020 and that 4m becomes? 5m? 6m?

under FPTP UKIP won 1 seat but were second in 50 more. i think i read that another 1.5m voters gets them a slew of seats, mainly old labour/northern/inner city seats 

I've gone off the idea of a surge in UKIP seats now Farage has gone.

Paul Nuttall, Patrick O'Flynn or Suzanne Evans don't make for good TV.

[TightEnd]

Another Farage view

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Has anyone yet proposed a solution to the Gordan knot of free trade or freedom of movement?

thats what the two year negotiation is for.......

I was under the impression that's what it's not for.

The two years is to physically leave and sort out all the processes etc that need to occur for that to happen.

Trade negotiations come AFTER that?

but you have to sort out the freedom of movement issue in that two years....and you can't do that in isolation so you have to sort out the framework for trade even if you don't have the nitty gritty....

ie are we going into an EEA, to give one example

as it stands, to answer neeko's question the main stumbling block is the EU will require freedom of movement to give access to the single market and the UK can't allow freedom of movement (according to many leave politicians) but wants access

so there need to be compromises somewhere

I fear politics has changed and now compromise is now seen as capitulation and a failure of the political elite to do what the leave vote expect.

French and German elections in 2017 mean there will be nothing happening until after then, as neither Hollande or Merkel will drop the freedom of movement demand until after these results.

To use up more metaphors- a don't see a way to square the circle.

I imagine that delay and dithering will be the solution with no article 50 implemented "until the appropriate juncture, in the fullness of time, in due course" aka never and then have a general election to muddy the waters and mean it never gets exercised.

i think it is a tremendous time not to be in government. little upside from having to negotiate it all and plenty of downside

the issue then becomes can any opposition party capitalise on it and get elected next time? the answer to that appears to be no and the only party i can see making a lot of progress is UKIP as people feel let down, immigration is still high and another protest vote comes?

4m voted UKIP in 2015, add in some more labour heartlands in 2020 and that 4m becomes? 5m? 6m?

under FPTP UKIP won 1 seat but were second in 50 more. i think i read that another 1.5m voters gets them a slew of seats, mainly old labour/northern/inner city seats 

I've gone off the idea of a surge in UKIP seats now Farage has gone.

Paul Nuttall, Patrick O'Flynn or Suzanne Evans don't make for good TV.

i haven't

they lose Farage's barnstorming populism but both likely leaders are northern working class men

Nuttall is from Bootle

Wolfe is from moss side

known as "red ukip" they will go for the labour vote. of course we don't know what labour looks like in 2020 and what is european policy will be

(suzanne evans can't stand)

[PokerBroker]

If SNP ditch a referendum for say the next parliament or generation and start to move into former Labour heartlands in the North they could feasibly freeze UKIP out. 

Highly unlikely, but it could be a way of spreading much optimism for Scottish Independence in the future. 

[DaveShoelace]

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[dakky]

Those of us who still live in working class areas that are seeing abject poverty day in day out and seeing all local services on the brink due to overuse.  We are not blaming the migrants for this we blame successive Labour and Tory governments.  But we need to realise that in certain areas there are problems with migrants.  That is why UKIP are on the surge, they play to the fears.  Labour have refused to listen to these concerns and that is why they are on the ropes. 

The reason public services are squeezed is due to government cuts and a lack of investment.

[nirvana]

There are answers to these issues but the comfortably off want to sit by, do nothing, change nothing and then decry poor people as thick right wing loons. That way leads to a shituation

The arguments are well trodden obviously but if we're serious about wanting freedom of movement then we should address infrastructure as it can't be argued that immigration isn't a major causal factor on pressures on the existing infrastructure. It doesn't really matter if immigration creates a net contribution ..that's really not the point..its about how that money is used. Generally this has been used to make rich people richer and this really can't be argued either.

 We need some serious tax and spend to correct the inequity we have which is deepened by having a bottomless pool of low waged labour. So if the clever and better educated remains would care to share some of their booty then there really.might not be any issues

[PokerBroker]

Those of us who still live in working class areas that are seeing abject poverty day in day out and seeing all local services on the brink due to overuse.  We are not blaming the migrants for this we blame successive Labour and Tory governments.  But we need to realise that in certain areas there are problems with migrants.  That is why UKIP are on the surge, they play to the fears.  Labour have refused to listen to these concerns and that is why they are on the ropes. 

The reason public services are squeezed is due to government cuts and a lack of investment.

Totally agree.  But there are added pressures on shrinking budgets by having to extend the service to more people. 

[dakky]

It doesn't really matter if immigration creates a net contribution ..that's really not the point..its about how that money is used. Generally this has been used to make rich people richer and this really can't be argued either.

 We need some serious tax and spend to correct the inequity we have which is deepened by having a bottomless pool of low waged labour. So if the clever and better educated remains would care to share some of their booty then there really.might not be any issues

I've long argued that this money should be invested in infrastructure, but unfortunately the only time I've heard a politician ever say the same was Ed Miliband on question time a few weeks before the referendum

[DMorgan]

Barrister explains why Article 50 may never be triggered

With so many legal avenues to explore it seems like triggering article 50 is a long way off. Would whoever wins the Conservative leadership election push the button without having won a GE? Feels like the longer this drags on public sentiment shifts towards remain. If we have another referendum the regretful leavers and the regretful non-voters that would vote remain given another chance probably swing it back if its a clear choice between retaining the single market and freedom of movement or ditching freedom of movement and single market and joining the EFTA.

Parliament right now wants to remain and I think that they know that given enough time and turmoil the electorate will get onside, so as far as they are concerned its still all to play for

Meanwhile Standard Life has suspended its £2.7bn UK property fund as it experiences a run from retail investors

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-04/bear-stearns-20-uks-largest-property-fund-halts-redemptions-fears-vicious-circle



Edit: Aviva now too http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-05/domino-2-uks-aviva-property-fund-frozen-due-lack-immediate-liquidity

[Cf]

I'm going to Vegas at the end of September.

I am not amused at the exchange rate.

[nirvana]

Barrister explains why Article 50 may never be triggered

With so many legal avenues to explore it seems like triggering article 50 is a long way off. Would whoever wins the Conservative leadership election push the button without having won a GE? Feels like the longer this drags on public sentiment shifts towards remain. If we have another referendum the regretful leavers and the regretful non-voters that would vote remain given another chance probably swing it back if its a clear choice between retaining the single market and freedom of movement or ditching freedom of movement and single market and joining the EFTA.

Parliament right now wants to remain and I think that they know that given enough time and turmoil the electorate will get onside, so as far as they are concerned its still all to play for

Meanwhile Standard Life has suspended its £2.7bn UK property fund as it experiences a run from retail investors

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-04/bear-stearns-20-uks-largest-property-fund-halts-redemptions-fears-vicious-circle



Edit: Aviva now too http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-05/domino-2-uks-aviva-property-fund-frozen-due-lack-immediate-liquidity

Oh no. We might have to actually produce stuff to create wealth