The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[arbboy]

He does rip the piss out of me when i moan about how stressful my life is (whilst living in a £500k house that he bought in 1971 for £1800) in the same arm chair that he bought in 1971 whilst gran brings him a cup of tea!  When you have knocked out 20 large in a month and the legend that is your grandad tells you 'you don't even work son' it is hard to bite your lip.  He is always right mind compared to his life i have never done a days work in my life. haha

Incred

He is a proper 2nd world war legend.  It is very hard to ever say you have it tough to him.  He really keeps me grounded.  He is a total legend.

[Marky147]

He does rip the piss out of me when i moan about how stressful my life is (whilst living in a £500k house that he bought in 1971 for £1800) in the same arm chair that he bought in 1971 whilst gran brings him a cup of tea!  When you have knocked out 20 large in a month and the legend that is your grandad tells you 'you don't even work son' it is hard to bite your lip.  He is always right mind compared to his life i have never done a days work in my life. haha

Incred

He is a proper 2nd world war legend.  It is very hard to ever say you have it tough to him.  He really keeps me grounded.  He is a total legend.

Yeah, those boys cracked some graft, and not a lot we can say to any of them.

[arbboy]

He does rip the piss out of me when i moan about how stressful my life is (whilst living in a £500k house that he bought in 1971 for £1800) in the same arm chair that he bought in 1971 whilst gran brings him a cup of tea!  When you have knocked out 20 large in a month and the legend that is your grandad tells you 'you don't even work son' it is hard to bite your lip.  He is always right mind compared to his life i have never done a days work in my life. haha

Incred

He is a proper 2nd world war legend.  It is very hard to ever say you have it tough to him.  He really keeps me grounded.  He is a total legend.

Yeah, those boys cracked some graft, and not a lot we can say to any of them.

This is my point about 'working class' men.  They just don't exist anymore like they did 40 years ago .

[Woodsey]

He does rip the piss out of me when i moan about how stressful my life is (whilst living in a £500k house that he bought in 1971 for £1800) in the same arm chair that he bought in 1971 whilst gran brings him a cup of tea!  When you have knocked out 20 large in a month and the legend that is your grandad tells you 'you don't even work son' it is hard to bite your lip.  He is always right mind compared to his life i have never done a days work in my life. haha

Incred

He is a proper 2nd world war legend.  It is very hard to ever say you have it tough to him.  He really keeps me grounded.  He is a total legend.

Yeah, those boys cracked some graft, and not a lot we can say to any of them.

This is my point about 'working class' men.  They just don't exist anymore like they did 40 years ago .

I think they do, but they are just the chavs of the world rather than the old school gents of that era.......

[Doobs]

I spent the afternoon in the boozer reading this thread whilst having a few beers obviously and there were a bunch of working class stokie type guys on the table next to me which really summed up why the labour party is fucked.   They were all £30k max types who are social climbers who fancy themselves a bit but should be hard core lefties but dressed in their corporate polo shirts so clearly not close to senior management just having a drink after work like any normal working class type would years ago.  They all said 'i used to be labour when i was skint but i am middle class (lolllllzzzzz) now'.  I really think all joking aside the labour party just doesn't appeal to the vast majority of people in this country any more when people like this are talking like this.  UKIP has run its course and all their votes are just going to the tories because very few people in this country would want to admit to voting for a socialist ultra left party that Jezza dreams of.  The world has changed so much in the last 20 years that the vast majority of people under 35 really do see themselves in a different light to their parents and grand parents.  There are so few 'proper' working class jobs nowadays that actually existed in teh 1980s when i was a kid.  Back then those people were proud to be labour.  Even though in most cases they will worse off financially than them they consider themselves middle class (wtf does middle class mean nowadays? - i think of woodseys types who say i am middle class! )  Nobody wants to consider themselves working class any more.  Social media and seflies have changed the ego about how the vast majority of people see themselves.  

It makes you realise how talented Blair was 20 years ago selling the story the other way to middle class 'mondeo man' types and turning them from tories into lefties.  Politics is nothing but a sales job in reality.

As for Abbott RIP Diane your time is up.  You have lived the champagne socialist gravy train through the best years of your life and had it right off.  I hope you looked after the ill gotten gains.  D abbot v Choo choo on the 'this week' sofa has been a bigger mis match than Chelsea v Sunderland this season for 10 years.  At least Choo choo won't have to chuckle politely every time you open your mouth on the sofa any more.  Surely the bbc sack her off now?  Sleeping with the boss surely can only take you so far in any job?  

I think it goes back to Maggie selling off the council houses.

Swathes of working class people who had never owned a house suddenly thought of themselves as middle class.

The working class was squeezed out, those who missed out became a new underclass, the homeless, the unemployed and the unemployable. And no one gives a shit about them any more.

The fact that so many working class jobs are no longer available due to improvements in technology meaning it takes one man on a computer controlling robots to do the work of 50, reinforces the fact there is no working class any more.

I agree totally with you which is why i think the labour party has no role in modern day society even more than UKIP does after brexit.  Isn't this the real reason for the decline in the labour vote because they don't really represent anyone in UK society any more?  Corbs stands for everything that is labour but no one wants what he stands for anymore.  The mines are closed.  The steelworks are closed etc etc.  The world has moved on.

The amazing con trick the Tories and the mass media has pulled off is to make ordinary people to believe the reason their lives are shit is the fault of the EU and mass immigration.

What and who will they blame in thirty years time when the population is aging, there isn't enough money to fund the massive increase of care homes and not enough people prepared to work in the care industry?

I saw a horrifying stat prediction the other day. Apparently a child born today is even money to live to 105. One hundred and bloody five. Good luck coping with that crisis in three generations time.

My grandad is 96 and i seriously don't want to be alive at that age give how he is struggling just to get about.  105 is mind boggling.  I still find that amazing that it is a flip to get to 105.  Obesity will kill off most of the kids if nothing changes way before 100 never mind 105.

It isn't a flip. It is made up bollocks

i thought camel had swallowed some left wing garbage tbh.  105 is insane.

It is nothing to do with left wing, it is some charlatan making up stuff to sell to some newspaper.  Seems a fairly right wing thing to do?

Life expectancy has been increasing (well up until 5 years ago) fairly steadily over the years.

Some real statisticians view

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/how-has-life-expectancy-changed-over-time/. 

If you build in more generous increases in life expectancy you might get to 90 or so.  As mentioned on this thread the other day, life expectancy improvements have stalled over the last 5 years.  So the Tory policies have resulted in the early deaths of a huge number of people, or we are reaching the stage that expected improvements in life expectancy are going to be smaller than they have been recently.  Probably a combination of the two.   In addition, though the life expectancy has been improvimg, the peak age that a human can reach hasn't improved much, if at all.  Very very few people live past 115, and that is still the case even if there are now way more people who get to 100.

Having said that, even without a big increase in life expectancy, there are going to be a lot more pensioners in the future and so each worker will have to pay more taxes to support them.  This will be especially true with the reduction in final salary pension schemes going forward.  And of course closing the door to cheap migrant labour is hardly going to make things easier.

FWIW I read yesterday that much of the 2017 Finance Bill has been shelved last week.  If only we had a strong and stable Government who didn't make future planning so bloody difficult, eh? 

[The Camel]

I spent the afternoon in the boozer reading this thread whilst having a few beers obviously and there were a bunch of working class stokie type guys on the table next to me which really summed up why the labour party is fucked.   They were all £30k max types who are social climbers who fancy themselves a bit but should be hard core lefties but dressed in their corporate polo shirts so clearly not close to senior management just having a drink after work like any normal working class type would years ago.  They all said 'i used to be labour when i was skint but i am middle class (lolllllzzzzz) now'.  I really think all joking aside the labour party just doesn't appeal to the vast majority of people in this country any more when people like this are talking like this.  UKIP has run its course and all their votes are just going to the tories because very few people in this country would want to admit to voting for a socialist ultra left party that Jezza dreams of.  The world has changed so much in the last 20 years that the vast majority of people under 35 really do see themselves in a different light to their parents and grand parents.  There are so few 'proper' working class jobs nowadays that actually existed in teh 1980s when i was a kid.  Back then those people were proud to be labour.  Even though in most cases they will worse off financially than them they consider themselves middle class (wtf does middle class mean nowadays? - i think of woodseys types who say i am middle class! )  Nobody wants to consider themselves working class any more.  Social media and seflies have changed the ego about how the vast majority of people see themselves.  

It makes you realise how talented Blair was 20 years ago selling the story the other way to middle class 'mondeo man' types and turning them from tories into lefties.  Politics is nothing but a sales job in reality.

As for Abbott RIP Diane your time is up.  You have lived the champagne socialist gravy train through the best years of your life and had it right off.  I hope you looked after the ill gotten gains.  D abbot v Choo choo on the 'this week' sofa has been a bigger mis match than Chelsea v Sunderland this season for 10 years.  At least Choo choo won't have to chuckle politely every time you open your mouth on the sofa any more.  Surely the bbc sack her off now?  Sleeping with the boss surely can only take you so far in any job?  

I think it goes back to Maggie selling off the council houses.

Swathes of working class people who had never owned a house suddenly thought of themselves as middle class.

The working class was squeezed out, those who missed out became a new underclass, the homeless, the unemployed and the unemployable. And no one gives a shit about them any more.

The fact that so many working class jobs are no longer available due to improvements in technology meaning it takes one man on a computer controlling robots to do the work of 50, reinforces the fact there is no working class any more.

I agree totally with you which is why i think the labour party has no role in modern day society even more than UKIP does after brexit.  Isn't this the real reason for the decline in the labour vote because they don't really represent anyone in UK society any more?  Corbs stands for everything that is labour but no one wants what he stands for anymore.  The mines are closed.  The steelworks are closed etc etc.  The world has moved on.

The amazing con trick the Tories and the mass media has pulled off is to make ordinary people to believe the reason their lives are shit is the fault of the EU and mass immigration.

What and who will they blame in thirty years time when the population is aging, there isn't enough money to fund the massive increase of care homes and not enough people prepared to work in the care industry?

I saw a horrifying stat prediction the other day. Apparently a child born today is even money to live to 105. One hundred and bloody five. Good luck coping with that crisis in three generations time.

My grandad is 96 and i seriously don't want to be alive at that age give how he is struggling just to get about.  105 is mind boggling.  I still find that amazing that it is a flip to get to 105.  Obesity will kill off most of the kids if nothing changes way before 100 never mind 105.

It isn't a flip. It is made up bollocks

It was in an article in The New Statesman.

I maybe wrong, but I don't believe they are purveyors of fake news.

[Doobs]

I spent the afternoon in the boozer reading this thread whilst having a few beers obviously and there were a bunch of working class stokie type guys on the table next to me which really summed up why the labour party is fucked.   They were all £30k max types who are social climbers who fancy themselves a bit but should be hard core lefties but dressed in their corporate polo shirts so clearly not close to senior management just having a drink after work like any normal working class type would years ago.  They all said 'i used to be labour when i was skint but i am middle class (lolllllzzzzz) now'.  I really think all joking aside the labour party just doesn't appeal to the vast majority of people in this country any more when people like this are talking like this.  UKIP has run its course and all their votes are just going to the tories because very few people in this country would want to admit to voting for a socialist ultra left party that Jezza dreams of.  The world has changed so much in the last 20 years that the vast majority of people under 35 really do see themselves in a different light to their parents and grand parents.  There are so few 'proper' working class jobs nowadays that actually existed in teh 1980s when i was a kid.  Back then those people were proud to be labour.  Even though in most cases they will worse off financially than them they consider themselves middle class (wtf does middle class mean nowadays? - i think of woodseys types who say i am middle class! )  Nobody wants to consider themselves working class any more.  Social media and seflies have changed the ego about how the vast majority of people see themselves.  

It makes you realise how talented Blair was 20 years ago selling the story the other way to middle class 'mondeo man' types and turning them from tories into lefties.  Politics is nothing but a sales job in reality.

As for Abbott RIP Diane your time is up.  You have lived the champagne socialist gravy train through the best years of your life and had it right off.  I hope you looked after the ill gotten gains.  D abbot v Choo choo on the 'this week' sofa has been a bigger mis match than Chelsea v Sunderland this season for 10 years.  At least Choo choo won't have to chuckle politely every time you open your mouth on the sofa any more.  Surely the bbc sack her off now?  Sleeping with the boss surely can only take you so far in any job?  

I think it goes back to Maggie selling off the council houses.

Swathes of working class people who had never owned a house suddenly thought of themselves as middle class.

The working class was squeezed out, those who missed out became a new underclass, the homeless, the unemployed and the unemployable. And no one gives a shit about them any more.

The fact that so many working class jobs are no longer available due to improvements in technology meaning it takes one man on a computer controlling robots to do the work of 50, reinforces the fact there is no working class any more.

I agree totally with you which is why i think the labour party has no role in modern day society even more than UKIP does after brexit.  Isn't this the real reason for the decline in the labour vote because they don't really represent anyone in UK society any more?  Corbs stands for everything that is labour but no one wants what he stands for anymore.  The mines are closed.  The steelworks are closed etc etc.  The world has moved on.

The amazing con trick the Tories and the mass media has pulled off is to make ordinary people to believe the reason their lives are shit is the fault of the EU and mass immigration.

What and who will they blame in thirty years time when the population is aging, there isn't enough money to fund the massive increase of care homes and not enough people prepared to work in the care industry?

I saw a horrifying stat prediction the other day. Apparently a child born today is even money to live to 105. One hundred and bloody five. Good luck coping with that crisis in three generations time.

My grandad is 96 and i seriously don't want to be alive at that age give how he is struggling just to get about.  105 is mind boggling.  I still find that amazing that it is a flip to get to 105.  Obesity will kill off most of the kids if nothing changes way before 100 never mind 105.

It isn't a flip. It is made up bollocks

It was in an article in The New Statesman.

I maybe wrong, but I don't believe they are purveyors of fake news.

You only had to read the post above.

People selling a book vs somone selling nothing.  You choose.

[The Camel]

I spent the afternoon in the boozer reading this thread whilst having a few beers obviously and there were a bunch of working class stokie type guys on the table next to me which really summed up why the labour party is fucked.   They were all £30k max types who are social climbers who fancy themselves a bit but should be hard core lefties but dressed in their corporate polo shirts so clearly not close to senior management just having a drink after work like any normal working class type would years ago.  They all said 'i used to be labour when i was skint but i am middle class (lolllllzzzzz) now'.  I really think all joking aside the labour party just doesn't appeal to the vast majority of people in this country any more when people like this are talking like this.  UKIP has run its course and all their votes are just going to the tories because very few people in this country would want to admit to voting for a socialist ultra left party that Jezza dreams of.  The world has changed so much in the last 20 years that the vast majority of people under 35 really do see themselves in a different light to their parents and grand parents.  There are so few 'proper' working class jobs nowadays that actually existed in teh 1980s when i was a kid.  Back then those people were proud to be labour.  Even though in most cases they will worse off financially than them they consider themselves middle class (wtf does middle class mean nowadays? - i think of woodseys types who say i am middle class! )  Nobody wants to consider themselves working class any more.  Social media and seflies have changed the ego about how the vast majority of people see themselves.  

It makes you realise how talented Blair was 20 years ago selling the story the other way to middle class 'mondeo man' types and turning them from tories into lefties.  Politics is nothing but a sales job in reality.

As for Abbott RIP Diane your time is up.  You have lived the champagne socialist gravy train through the best years of your life and had it right off.  I hope you looked after the ill gotten gains.  D abbot v Choo choo on the 'this week' sofa has been a bigger mis match than Chelsea v Sunderland this season for 10 years.  At least Choo choo won't have to chuckle politely every time you open your mouth on the sofa any more.  Surely the bbc sack her off now?  Sleeping with the boss surely can only take you so far in any job?  

I think it goes back to Maggie selling off the council houses.

Swathes of working class people who had never owned a house suddenly thought of themselves as middle class.

The working class was squeezed out, those who missed out became a new underclass, the homeless, the unemployed and the unemployable. And no one gives a shit about them any more.

The fact that so many working class jobs are no longer available due to improvements in technology meaning it takes one man on a computer controlling robots to do the work of 50, reinforces the fact there is no working class any more.

I agree totally with you which is why i think the labour party has no role in modern day society even more than UKIP does after brexit.  Isn't this the real reason for the decline in the labour vote because they don't really represent anyone in UK society any more?  Corbs stands for everything that is labour but no one wants what he stands for anymore.  The mines are closed.  The steelworks are closed etc etc.  The world has moved on.

The amazing con trick the Tories and the mass media has pulled off is to make ordinary people to believe the reason their lives are shit is the fault of the EU and mass immigration.

What and who will they blame in thirty years time when the population is aging, there isn't enough money to fund the massive increase of care homes and not enough people prepared to work in the care industry?

I saw a horrifying stat prediction the other day. Apparently a child born today is even money to live to 105. One hundred and bloody five. Good luck coping with that crisis in three generations time.

My grandad is 96 and i seriously don't want to be alive at that age give how he is struggling just to get about.  105 is mind boggling.  I still find that amazing that it is a flip to get to 105.  Obesity will kill off most of the kids if nothing changes way before 100 never mind 105.

It isn't a flip. It is made up bollocks

It was in an article in The New Statesman.

I maybe wrong, but I don't believe they are purveyors of fake news.

You only had to read the post above.

People selling a book vs somone selling nothing.  You choose.

Not sure I know what you mean.

The journalist who wrote the article I read wasn't selling anything.

[Doobs]

I spent the afternoon in the boozer reading this thread whilst having a few beers obviously and there were a bunch of working class stokie type guys on the table next to me which really summed up why the labour party is fucked.   They were all £30k max types who are social climbers who fancy themselves a bit but should be hard core lefties but dressed in their corporate polo shirts so clearly not close to senior management just having a drink after work like any normal working class type would years ago.  They all said 'i used to be labour when i was skint but i am middle class (lolllllzzzzz) now'.  I really think all joking aside the labour party just doesn't appeal to the vast majority of people in this country any more when people like this are talking like this.  UKIP has run its course and all their votes are just going to the tories because very few people in this country would want to admit to voting for a socialist ultra left party that Jezza dreams of.  The world has changed so much in the last 20 years that the vast majority of people under 35 really do see themselves in a different light to their parents and grand parents.  There are so few 'proper' working class jobs nowadays that actually existed in teh 1980s when i was a kid.  Back then those people were proud to be labour.  Even though in most cases they will worse off financially than them they consider themselves middle class (wtf does middle class mean nowadays? - i think of woodseys types who say i am middle class! )  Nobody wants to consider themselves working class any more.  Social media and seflies have changed the ego about how the vast majority of people see themselves.  

It makes you realise how talented Blair was 20 years ago selling the story the other way to middle class 'mondeo man' types and turning them from tories into lefties.  Politics is nothing but a sales job in reality.

As for Abbott RIP Diane your time is up.  You have lived the champagne socialist gravy train through the best years of your life and had it right off.  I hope you looked after the ill gotten gains.  D abbot v Choo choo on the 'this week' sofa has been a bigger mis match than Chelsea v Sunderland this season for 10 years.  At least Choo choo won't have to chuckle politely every time you open your mouth on the sofa any more.  Surely the bbc sack her off now?  Sleeping with the boss surely can only take you so far in any job?  

I think it goes back to Maggie selling off the council houses.

Swathes of working class people who had never owned a house suddenly thought of themselves as middle class.

The working class was squeezed out, those who missed out became a new underclass, the homeless, the unemployed and the unemployable. And no one gives a shit about them any more.

The fact that so many working class jobs are no longer available due to improvements in technology meaning it takes one man on a computer controlling robots to do the work of 50, reinforces the fact there is no working class any more.

I agree totally with you which is why i think the labour party has no role in modern day society even more than UKIP does after brexit.  Isn't this the real reason for the decline in the labour vote because they don't really represent anyone in UK society any more?  Corbs stands for everything that is labour but no one wants what he stands for anymore.  The mines are closed.  The steelworks are closed etc etc.  The world has moved on.

The amazing con trick the Tories and the mass media has pulled off is to make ordinary people to believe the reason their lives are shit is the fault of the EU and mass immigration.

What and who will they blame in thirty years time when the population is aging, there isn't enough money to fund the massive increase of care homes and not enough people prepared to work in the care industry?

I saw a horrifying stat prediction the other day. Apparently a child born today is even money to live to 105. One hundred and bloody five. Good luck coping with that crisis in three generations time.

My grandad is 96 and i seriously don't want to be alive at that age give how he is struggling just to get about.  105 is mind boggling.  I still find that amazing that it is a flip to get to 105.  Obesity will kill off most of the kids if nothing changes way before 100 never mind 105.

It isn't a flip. It is made up bollocks

It was in an article in The New Statesman.

I maybe wrong, but I don't believe they are purveyors of fake news.

You only had to read the post above.

People selling a book vs somone selling nothing.  You choose.

Not sure I know what you mean.

The journalist who wrote the article I read wasn't selling anything.

He referred to a book that somebody was peddling and he is selling a magazine.  Titling your book "we might possibly live to 90"  doesn't sell as much as "the hundred year life".  One grabs attention, one doesn't.  Nature of the World these days. 

All the issues with increased life expectancy and an ageing population are enormous problems, just wish they didn't dress it with sensationalist crap.

[Jon MW]

I read the article - I don't think there's a problem with bias in the article I think the problem was the book (if that's where the figure came from) or not understanding the statistics if it came from the journalist.

This is a link to the ONS methodology on life expectancy https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/methodologies/periodandcohortlifeexpectancyexplained#period-life-expectancy-projections

It contains a graph (which is interactive rather than a flat picture - if it was a flat picture I would have just embedded it)

For cohort life expectancy at birth for around now, the upper variant for female offspring is about 105.

This means if a girl baby is born today the most they're likely to live to is 105.

I suppose they could have argued that there's a 50:50 chance of being born a girl - and if you're born a girl you could live to 105; therefore there's a 50:50 chance of living to 105

It might not be that but it definitely seems like someone either got the wrong end of the stick or was being deliberately misleading somewhere.

[TightEnd]

UKIP has been a gateway drug for Labour voters to go to the Tories... but more just went straight for the hard stuff

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/05/ukip-gateway-drug-more-are-going-straight-hard-stu/

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

"it’s Emirates v. EasyJet’

Lord Ashcroft's general election focus group report, always a fun read

now at http://LordAshcroftPolls.com

[TightEnd]

The idea of a Tory winning Tees Valley was so outlandish that the candidate pledged to nationalise his local airport.

Now he is Mayor.

[TightEnd]

boom. bell curves, normal distributions and tails from a Nuffield professor at Oxford

"Lots of uncertainty in the forecast because it's a fairly blunt method (plot of range of outcomes below) but 99.95% probability Con > Lab."

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

another fun one

LE2017 graph time: here is Conservative swing fitted with % workers in manual labour (per ward) - Tories sweeping up the blue collar vote.

Click to see full-size image.