The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Woodsey]

...
Tuition fees - This is the worst pledge he has made in my eyes. I was previously a student and have racked up debt myself and I am not particulary worried about it really. However in my view, I don't believe it shopuld be free, but instead the cost should go down. £9k too much, £0 too less. Let's find the middle ground.
...

This is one of a few pledges which seem pretty strange for a Labour manifesto.

My wife and her friends are just coming up to the end of their degrees, some of them are looking at jobs like teaching or research where they'll get adequate but completely unspectacular wages - some of them (and others in their year) are looking at jobs with big Pharma companies or banks where they could get 6 figure salaries; how can a Labour government think that they should all end up paying the same amount towards the cost of their degree (i.e. zero)? Aren't the Tories the one's who are meant to look after the rich?

The country as a whole benefits from a better educated workforce, but so do graduates themselves, like Aaron said it seems clear that both should pay towards it and the question should be where the balance lies.

Pharma co jobs with big 6 fig salaries? Can you ask them where these exist mate unless your a director 

[TightEnd]

New Survation

Con 43 (-)
Lab 37 (+3)
LD 8 (-)
UKip 4 (-)

Con lead 6 pts
May 26-27 May

In last night's Survation May has

23 pt lead- 'best PM'
45 pt lead among over 65s
54 pt lead among Kippers
lead in all regions except London

[TightEnd]

To get their campaign back on track, argues IainDale, the Tories should put the professionals back in charge http://bit.ly/2s6m2nV

cliffs brexit brexit brexit and boris boris boris

[TightEnd]

Labour's 2015 seats sorted by majority & 2015 Ukip vote.

Red = Ukip now absent

Source: Johnston et al



after a poor campaign the realignment on the right probably gets May home as labour vote share won't equal seat gains given this

democraticaudit.com/2017/05/29/how-ukips-election-strategy-is-boosting-theresa-mays-chances-of-a-big-majority/ …

[TightEnd]

Jeremy Corbyn says he will "open discussions" with Scottish govt over independence referendum if he wins election http://bbc.in/2quYwQk

[TightEnd]

Kezia Dugdale is trapped. Damned if she goes in one direction; damned if she goes in another, says

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/05/scottish-labours-jeremy-corbyn-problem/

[TightEnd]

Three reasons why the opinion polls could be wrong.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/general-election-polls-opinion-surveys-labour-gain-tory-loss-very-wrong-again-be-careful-a7760951.html

[TightEnd]

the debate

a selection of political journalist comments

Corbyn said he backed the Good Friday Agreement. But on Corbynanswers, set up by his supporters, it says this.

http://www.corbynanswers.com/84/why-did-corbyn-refuse-to-sign-the-good-friday-agreement

--

corbyn seems to have just rewritten his manifesto by saying benefits will be up-rated every year. Expensive

---

So, what did we learn? That the Falklands War was a Tory plot, that killing Bin Laden was a tragedy & that he wouldn't take out a terrorist.

---

Interesting that, Corbyn smooth on expected security questions: Trident, IRA. But left field ones - Falklands War/drone strike threw him.

--

line of the night may 'a blowhard who collapses at the first sign of gunfire'.

---

theresa may to Paxman: No deal better than a bad deal. Hope that's a negotiating tactic & not serious. No deal would mean financial market collapse

--

May on Brexit: "no deal is better than a bad deal" Studio audience: *thunderous applause*

--

Excellent summary of "BattleForNumber10" http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/seven-things-we-learnt-battle-number-10

--

Corbyn, Paxman, May and a TV studio audience: verdict for Independent

"Corbyn had a much better 45 minutes than May did, but she was the one the studio audience would send in to Brussels to negotiate with our European partners"


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/corbyn-paxman-may-and-the-tv-studio-audience-the-verdict-a7762051.html

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

so when looking at all of these polls you have to bear in mind the different methodologies

6-10pt Tory leads with self-certified turnout,

12-14pt with modelled turnout.

one assumes that everyone who says they are going to vote votes

the other assumes that voting percentages are as they have been in past elections. things like propensity of the old to vote and the young not to vote are modelled in

two big issues, unknown results....

1 does the tendency of the young and previous non voters to not turn out hold this time?

Corbyn's play for young voters and previous non-voters (both heavily pro Labour) are a pretty big swing factor for next Thursday. without them 12-14 points is a landslide. with them, on some polls the tory win is lower than it was in 2015

2 then add in the ukip issue.

so a majority of 12 in 2015 could be a bigger majority on a lower tory vote share because of the constituency mix under FPTP
ie labour piles up votes in metropolitan areas, safe seats etc but gets the votes in the wrong places to win the election and the UKIP collapse (how much? where do the ukip votes go) is another big swing factor for next thursday

--

Labour are fighting the electoral system to an extent here,and there are boundary changes to come in 2018-19 that make it tougher

[TightEnd]

so during the programme last night at times May was heckled, at times the audience laughed at her and at times they disagreed with her. she's not a natural at it and it showed

but her strongest moment was right at the end

"no deal is better than a bad deal"

big applause

(which makes you wonder why they just haven't rammed home Brexit for three weeks of the campaign)

----

anyway, this troubled me. of course,i voted remain

In her Article 50 letter, Mrs May said that if there is no deal then Britain will be forced to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

no deal at all is a big risk

John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform (CER), said

“Leaving the EU with no deal would mean tariffs on trade; legal chaos, with every British company selling to the EU unsure if they are doing so legally; and Britain’s alliances with other European countries in ruins,” 

a leaked treasury report said plans to rely on World Trade Organisation tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit will cause a “major economic shock”



so, why does she get thunderous applause on this? a major economic shock would affect many of the people clapping thunderously!

[dakky]

Despite how brilliant the Labour campaign has been and how fantastically Corbyn has performed I just don't see how Labour wins this.

10% of Tories are simply not going to vote for him, no matter how bad Theresa May is.

Hope I'm wrong.

I am not sure how you come to a conclusion of Jeremy Corbyn performing "fantastically". I would say it's more of Labour jumping on the social care aspect which has been the party gain a few inroads. He is the only reason I am not voting Labour because all the pledges, his past and weakness are too much for me to not to trust him.

Trident/Security - How can you trust a man, who is a pacifist? You don't get terrorist around a table drinking tea and biscuits, that's not how it works Jeremy.

£10 min wage - Nonsense & absolute disaster for small businesses.

Tuition fees - This is the worst pledge he has made in my eyes. I was previously a student and have racked up debt myself and I am not particulary worried about it really. However in my view, I don't believe it shopuld be free, but instead the cost should go down. £9k too much, £0 too less. Let's find the middle ground.

As for tonight's "debate" or more "Q&A", it was a good night for Corbyn, I thought he was just the winner in it. Just felt as if he was really close to a fantastic night, if he decided that when he jumped in to answer Paxman, that he continued on, and not be interupted again. Paxman a disaster tonight though.

Hurtful for me not voting Labour this time round after 2010 & 2015, but I can't see how I can possibly vote for this man. I'll probably swing from Labour to Lib Dem just as a protest vote and hope Corbyn can't possibly stay on. He isn't what the Labour party is about.

What's wrong with tea and biscuits? Whatever we have been doing isn't working.

£10 min wage? Why is it nonsense? Its going to be £9 anyway so what's the big deal?

What is the labour party about then?

[TightEnd]

May speech today.

Bad brexit is a threat to public finances and jobs. Fascinated to see polling behind this. (it obviously tests well)

they have to take it back to Brexit, its where they score well

but i am non-plussed.

How can she warn of the dangers of failure and then talk up no deal? everything depends on avoiding bad brexit but how is bad brexit worse than no deal?

(sorry, i think about this shit too much)

Click to see full-size image.

[The Camel]

so when looking at all of these polls you have to bear in mind the different methodologies

6-10pt Tory leads with self-certified turnout,

12-14pt with modelled turnout.

one assumes that everyone who says they are going to vote votes

the other assumes that voting percentages are as they have been in past elections. things like propensity of the old to vote and the young not to vote are modelled in

two big issues, unknown results....

1 does the tendency of the young and previous non voters to not turn out hold this time?

Corbyn's play for young voters and previous non-voters (both heavily pro Labour) are a pretty big swing factor for next Thursday. without them 12-14 points is a landslide. with them, on some polls the tory win is lower than it was in 2015

2 then add in the ukip issue.

so a majority of 12 in 2015 could be a bigger majority on a lower tory vote share because of the constituency mix under FPTP
ie labour piles up votes in metropolitan areas, safe seats etc but gets the votes in the wrong places to win the election and the UKIP collapse (how much? where do the ukip votes go) is another big swing factor for next thursday

--

Labour are fighting the electoral system to an extent here,and there are boundary changes to come in 2018-19 that make it tougher

Forget the computer models. They are written with the expectations drawn from previous elections and politics has changed beyond recognition in the last couple of years.

Now whether the left can confound the opinion polls the way the right did over Brexit and Trump is the only the question we need answering.

And we will only find that out on June 8th.

Definitely the most exciting election of my lifetime, probably ever.

[Magic817]

so during the programme last night at times May was heckled, at times the audience laughed at her and at times they disagreed with her. she's not a natural at it and it showed

but her strongest moment was right at the end

"no deal is better than a bad deal"

big applause

(which makes you wonder why they just haven't rammed home Brexit for three weeks of the campaign)

----

anyway, this troubled me. of course,i voted remain

In her Article 50 letter, Mrs May said that if there is no deal then Britain will be forced to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

no deal at all is a big risk

John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform (CER), said

“Leaving the EU with no deal would mean tariffs on trade; legal chaos, with every British company selling to the EU unsure if they are doing so legally; and Britain’s alliances with other European countries in ruins,” 

a leaked treasury report said plans to rely on World Trade Organisation tariffs in the case of a hard Brexit will cause a “major economic shock”



so, why does she get thunderous applause on this? a major economic shock would affect many of the people clapping thunderously!

When you asked this question it made me think of this from family guy

www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYtbWWmtVYM