The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

current voting intention by generation

[TightEnd]

with some evidence that ukip to con has stalled....

if Cons win all UKIP votes, Lab loses all these seats, but if Cons win only 50% of UKIP votes, Lab only loses seats above green line

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[TightEnd]

the importance of polling methodology

The Huff Post average shows Conservatives only 3 points ahead. Those adjustments make a huge difference for some polls.

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[TightEnd]

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[TightEnd]

Pound falls below $1.28 on UK hung parliament fears – business live http://trib.al/wNM6KT2

[TightEnd]

If you were Jeremy Corbyn, why wouldn't you turn up at tonight's Leader's Debate? What have you got to lose?

[Magic817]

this is amazing

759!

alternative post title "wow,we might be absolutely f****ed"

" On Brexit day, Britain will immediately be excluded from hundreds of treaties and agreements signed by the EU.

Many of the 759 arrangements listed below — from customs procedures and agricultural quotas, to the landing rights of planes — must be replaced, renegotiated or remade by Brexit Britain.

The negotiation will span 168 countries and is one of the biggest administrative challenges confronting Whitehall as Britain exits the EU. This list covers what Britain needs to stand still as it resets its relations with the world."

https://ig.ft.com/brexit-treaty-database/

This is exactly why we needed to leave the EU. Too much bureaucratic piffle that costs a fortune to maintain and is in place to make it harder to leave.

Brexit means Brexit

[Cf]

If you were Jeremy Corbyn, why wouldn't you turn up at tonight's Leader's Debate? What have you got to lose?

He has to. Talk about brexit. Say how she hasn't even got the courage to appear in a debate. How can she have the courage to stand up for our country in the brexit deals. Etc. She'd have no come back to it whatsoever. And just keep asking Rudd who are you and why are you here?

No brainer surely? He'll only damage himself by not being there.

[nirvana]

I think dwelling on the deal, no deal thing is kinda pointless. There will be a deal...you heard it here first

It's understandable that May says things like this, just as Eurozone leaders will say silly things as a preamble to negotiations - they are all playing a tune they think sits well with their electorate, and rightly so.

Some things about negotiations are truisms even if some seem to counter one another and some defy common sense.

You have to be prepared to walk away in the face of a bad deal but you have to be prepared to compromise to get any kind of deal.

You have to talk tough and play hard but you have more chance of reaching a good deal if you get on with the counterparties.

If you're giving something away (compromising) you are losing in the negotiation but you need to compromise some things to get an agreement.

The weakest party will compromise the most and the strongest party will say 'win-win' and take advantage of the weaker party.

Whether people prefer to think we are weak Britain or strong Britain probably correlates fairly directly with the way we voted in the referendum as that was the battle line that was drawn. It's no surprise that politicians (all over Europe) continue to posture, and that the way commentators (including all of us) view things - the sky is going to fall in or things will ultimately get resolved fairly well for all - depends on how we voted.

I'm pleased that a majority thought we were strong Britain. In terms of growth, job creation, attractiveness for inward investment etc we are strong compared to most of Europe. The extra wealth here means we are an attractive export market. It just has to be true that the bulk of the Eurozone will be quite determined to ensure ongoing tariff free access to our market whilst understanding their strengths as a market for us and our desire for tariff free access too - certainly business will, and the only way this can go pear shaped is if the French and Germans get a bit childish about it and demand too much for that access. I'll literally eat a hat if there isn't a deal with us making ongoing contributions at some level for a free trade deal.

Would you prefer to give a bloody difficult woman a deal on whatever you are selling, or an affable, genuine guy that makes you laugh?

I like people who make silly claims about themselves. Bloody difficult woman all day

[Cavey007]

If you were Jeremy Corbyn, why wouldn't you turn up at tonight's Leader's Debate? What have you got to lose?

Its all or nothing for him now. Just because one of them is too much of a coward to be there, no reason why he shouldn't. Although I can see his point of view for not doing it. Look at how the press jumped on him not remembering a number yesterday. If it's just him (of the two main parties) then the mail, times, Sun... BBC.... Would have a field day. Even more so than usual.

[TightEnd]

High-quality overview of the election campaign so far, as if from afar, by David Hayes

http://insidestory.org.au/theresa-may-versus-jeremy-corbyn-game-on

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[TightEnd]

Spread prices on CON seats move sharply down Both SportingIndex & Spreadex now 364-270

http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british?tpid=6441&btag=a_7b_95c_

[TightEnd]

the source of the big changes in markets/pound this morning

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[Woodsey]

Fking hell that is a NIGHTMARE scenario with Brexit discussions starting soon, I'd almost rather Labour won than a hung parliament....

[DaveShoelace]

Almost want to see that happen just to keep making this the best thread ever.

Would we ever see a LAB/SNP/LIB coalition?