The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RickBFA]

Donald J. Trump
 ✔  ‎@realDonaldTrump  

Highest Stock Market EVER, best economic numbers in years, unemployment lowest in 17 years, wages raising, border secure, S.C.: No WH chaos!


Trump tries to change the narrative and mislead by quoting results that are nothing to do with him, mostly being extensions of how things were going anyway, for all the world like a Brexiteer picking out selected misleading stats to try to give an impression that the UK economy is going well.

I was going to post this on the US thread, but it just reminded me so much of the recent attempt to mislead by quoting the inflation rate on this thread that I had to put it here for comparison.

Some more current facts about the UK economy to mislead you with.............

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40947087

The shit may well hit the fan but even with the uncertainty, employment numbers keep increasing.

Like I said previously, I post this for a little balance in a thread where most articles by political commentators would have you looking to slit your wrists.

[TightEnd]

for reference,if i could find positive brexit comment,i would post it.

i subscribe to various newspapers and publications, follow others, read periodicals etc and there is NOTHING, even daily mail, express,sun etc

beyond the intellectual premise (ie "i voted leave" because of x, y or z whether that be anti EU, anti immigration or whatever) in practical terms i think its impossible to say that prospects for a successful Brexit have improved.

cabinet splits, lack of strategy etc mean implementation is struggling and risks are higher

[TightEnd]

UK unemployment rate low, but real wage growth will continue to disappoint http://bit.ly/2fL36cI 

[RickBFA]

for reference,if i could find positive brexit comment,i would post it.

i subscribe to various newspapers and publications, follow others, read periodicals etc and there is NOTHING, even daily mail, express,sun etc

beyond the intellectual premise (ie "i voted leave" because of x, y or z whether that be anti EU, anti immigration or whatever) in practical terms i think its impossible to say that prospects for a successful Brexit have improved.

cabinet splits, lack of strategy etc mean implementation is struggling and risks are higher

Not criticising Tighty, you do an amazing job with this thread. Just having a bit of fun replying to Mint.

On a serious note, I know others will say they are poor quality jobs etc but why do people think employers are still recruiting and unemployment is falling? Logically you would expect business to be cost cutting, battening down the hatches if an economic disaster is round the corner?

[DMorgan]

Logically you would expect business to be cost cutting, battening down the hatches if an economic disaster is round the corner?

Seems to me like they have been?

Watering down of employment terms to zero hours and short term contracts seems like a handy way to insulate your balance sheet from a demand side shock

[nirvana]

Logically you would expect business to be cost cutting, battening down the hatches if an economic disaster is round the corner?

Seems to me like they have been?

Watering down of employment terms to zero hours and short term contracts seems like a handy way to insulate your balance sheet from a demand side shock

This might be 180 degrees out, zero hours, poor employment terms (especially in respect of termination) and short term contracts are not a response to us potentially leaving, they are more solidly a consequence of free movement of labour within  the EU (especially since enlargement).

[Woodsey]

Logically you would expect business to be cost cutting, battening down the hatches if an economic disaster is round the corner?

Seems to me like they have been?

Watering down of employment terms to zero hours and short term contracts seems like a handy way to insulate your balance sheet from a demand side shock

This might be 180 degrees out, zero hours, poor employment terms (especially in respect of termination) and short term contracts are not a response to us potentially leaving, they are more solidly a consequence of free movement of labour within  the EU (especially since enlargement).

The company I work for are expanding exponentially and employing new people left right and centre. I have personally employed 2 new people this week on £60k+ salaries....

The uk is fucked obviously 

[arbboy]

Logically you would expect business to be cost cutting, battening down the hatches if an economic disaster is round the corner?

Seems to me like they have been?

Watering down of employment terms to zero hours and short term contracts seems like a handy way to insulate your balance sheet from a demand side shock

This might be 180 degrees out, zero hours, poor employment terms (especially in respect of termination) and short term contracts are not a response to us potentially leaving, they are more solidly a consequence of free movement of labour within  the EU (especially since enlargement).

The company I work for are expanding exponentially and employing new people left right and centre. I have personally employed 2 new people this week on £60k+ salaries....

The uk is fucked obviously 

They got the same pension deal as you Woodsey?  That's the crux of the matter!  Forget about salaries.

[Woodsey]

Logically you would expect business to be cost cutting, battening down the hatches if an economic disaster is round the corner?

Seems to me like they have been?

Watering down of employment terms to zero hours and short term contracts seems like a handy way to insulate your balance sheet from a demand side shock

This might be 180 degrees out, zero hours, poor employment terms (especially in respect of termination) and short term contracts are not a response to us potentially leaving, they are more solidly a consequence of free movement of labour within  the EU (especially since enlargement).

The company I work for are expanding exponentially and employing new people left right and centre. I have personally employed 2 new people this week on £60k+ salaries....

The uk is fucked obviously 

They got the same pension deal as you Woodsey?  That's the crux of the matter!  Forget about salaries.

Nope, I get a few % more for long service   

[DMorgan]

Logically you would expect business to be cost cutting, battening down the hatches if an economic disaster is round the corner?

Seems to me like they have been?

Watering down of employment terms to zero hours and short term contracts seems like a handy way to insulate your balance sheet from a demand side shock

This might be 180 degrees out, zero hours, poor employment terms (especially in respect of termination) and short term contracts are not a response to us potentially leaving, they are more solidly a consequence of free movement of labour within  the EU (especially since enlargement).

Absolutely. I wasn't equating the referendum result with the rise in poor terms of employment.  The problem long pre-dates that and does seem to pretty strongly indicate an excess in the supply of labour.

The economic argument for freedom of movement in terms of UK living standards does seem to me to be somewhat weak. I actually find the arguments that the economic benefits accrue almost entirely to (a) the capitalist employer and (b) the migrant worker leaving very little to trickle down into the wider economy to be very persuasive. I'm on the fence at this point as to whether soft brexit > remain for overall living standards.

This customs union stuff does all seem pretty unnecessary though. Another doubting voice but an entertaining read I thought:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/08/15/the-government-s-customs-union-plan-is-an-absolute-dog-s-bre

Contrary to the leavers' calls to cut EU rules and regulations we seem to be aiming to repatriate and expand customs bureaucracy. Pouring hundreds of millions of pounds of public money into creating unnecessary government jobs? Sounds almost.....socialist!   



 

[nirvana]

Logically you would expect business to be cost cutting, battening down the hatches if an economic disaster is round the corner?

Seems to me like they have been?

Watering down of employment terms to zero hours and short term contracts seems like a handy way to insulate your balance sheet from a demand side shock

This might be 180 degrees out, zero hours, poor employment terms (especially in respect of termination) and short term contracts are not a response to us potentially leaving, they are more solidly a consequence of free movement of labour within  the EU (especially since enlargement).

Absolutely. I wasn't equating the referendum result with the rise in poor terms of employment.  The problem long pre-dates that and does seem to pretty strongly indicate an excess in the supply of labour.

The economic argument for freedom of movement in terms of UK living standards does seem to me to be somewhat weak. I actually find the arguments that the economic benefits accrue almost entirely to (a) the capitalist employer and (b) the migrant worker leaving very little to trickle down into the wider economy to be very persuasive. I'm on the fence at this point as to whether soft brexit > remain for overall living standards.

This customs union stuff does all seem pretty unnecessary though. Another doubting voice but an entertaining read I thought:

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/08/15/the-government-s-customs-union-plan-is-an-absolute-dog-s-bre

Contrary to the leavers' calls to cut EU rules and regulations we seem to be aiming to repatriate and expand customs bureaucracy. Pouring hundreds of millions of pounds of public money into creating unnecessary government jobs? Sounds almost.....socialist!   

 

Aah yes, mis-read your initial post completely.

On your other point about costs and the time and effort to replace what we already have - in a vacuum it seems bonkers and I occasionally waver and question the way I voted.

But then I feel bad for all the countries that aren't allowed in the EU and feel we should leave in solidarity with them rather than the EU states.

[TightEnd]

It's my straw and I'm clinging to it http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/08/hopes-anti-brexit-party-are-illusory-remainers-have-new-plan-stay-eu

[TightEnd]

Hopes of an anti-Brexit party are illusory, but Remainers have a new plan to stay in the EU,

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/08/hopes-anti-brexit-party-are-illusory-remainers-have-new-plan-stay-eu

[TightEnd]

Germany's foreign secretary who says he's shocked the UK has "no real strategy" for Brexit. https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/germanys-vice-chancellor-says-hes-shocked-to-find-uk-has-no?utm_term=.ulZgLeWy7#.ctBqXQMer …

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

David Davis said to privately believe UK-EU trade deal could take five years after Brexit (2024). http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/08/hopes-anti-brexit-party-are-illusory-remainers-have-new-plan-stay-eu …

Click to see full-size image.