The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Labour sources claiming Corbyn will back staying in 'THE' customs union on Monday - throwing down gauntlet to the Tories. Only close aides know the details - brief that it will be "seismic".

here was a leaver interpretation on guido

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Is Labour's constructive ambiguity on Brexit coming to an end?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43163354

[TightEnd]

UK Brexit negotiating has been ‘a shambles’ demonstrating ‘unpreparedness, a lack of professionalism and competence’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-michel-barnier-european-parliament-negotiations-a8220446.html

[TightEnd]

Corbyn support for a customs union sets scene for showdown on Brexit vote, with gvt on a knife-edge on trade bill

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/corbyn-support-for-a-customs-union-sets-up-brexit-showdown-88zx08303?shareToken=a16424531fe5be310b3e125f44dec1b4

[TightEnd]

The Brexit walls are closing in on Theresa May from two sides

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/23/brexit-walls-theresa-may-customs-union-trade-bill-bystander?CMP=twt_gu

[TightEnd]

interesting stuff...fromthe founder of @demsoc


The “managed divergence” plane is obviously going to explode in the hangar let alone on the runway, but I think this gives the EU side a problem more than the British

The U.K. are where they always were - unable to choose between Canada (no formal alignment on rules, free movement or courts, but lots of trade barriers and a hard border in Ireland) and Norway (stay entirely in the single market).

UK’s new position is what it always was “we want trade on our terms and none of the rules or immigrants”. This is called cherry-picking because it sounds nice and bucolic rather than “arrogant entitled tosspottery” which is what it is.

There is zero chance this will be accepted because it’s already been rejected - explicitly by the EU negotiating team’s PowerPoints the other day and more cautiously (“if reports are accurate”) by Tusk last night.

But that doesn’t make the U.K. strategic position worse (it’s already dreadful), though it hurts May’s personal position. The EU however has to come up with negotiating guidelines which Tusk has says will be created whether U.K. have expressed a view or not.

Given the U.K. will not have expressed a view (that is workable), the EU side will need to prepare guidelines without a U.K. position. If it weren’t for Ireland’s (rightful) special status, it would be easy. Start from the Canada model and negotiate up.

That’s in line with the U.K. red lines, it starts from the bottom of Barnier’s “steps of doom” chart, and if calmer voices take hold in the U.K., they can move up. However - the Withdrawal Agreement will say that Ireland will

(in summary) stay in the single market unless the U.K. does a Norway-type deal or discovers unicorns that can keep cross border trade totally free with no checks or infrastructure. The PM has said there’ll be no hard border in the Irish Sea

(between Belfast and Stranraer in other words). So that means the whole of the U.K. is held in a single market type relationship, if there’s no unicorns or no special deal. So should the EU side prepare on that basis - that the final position will be Norway

because Irish border is insoluble otherwise It’s basically trying to answer the U.K.s dilemma for it, which the EU side sensibly don’t want to do because they’ll be blamed for the inevitable bad consequences of Brexit.

They can’t “make [May] an offer” or they will own the offer and it’s consequences. They can’t draft negotiating guidelines that cover both Norway and Canada because they’re incompatible. Nothing is insoluble and fudge is delicious but

it’s a tricky task. Perhaps the simplest solution is for the U.K. gov to collapse over the legal text on Northern Ireland to be published in a couple of weeks. /end.

[TightEnd]

another interpretation

EU: Trade means rules.
UK: We don't like your rules.
EU: Ok, but then less trade.
UK: How about same trade, only some rules?
EU: No. UK [falls silent, goes off to Chequers, comes back looking smug] Got it. Same trade, your rules for a bit, then only some rules!
EU: No

[TightEnd]

European Council president Donald Tusk has said that the UK’s approach to Brexit negotiations appears to be based on “pure illusion”.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/93106/eu-chief-donald-tusk-slams-uk-brexit-plans-pure-illusion

[TightEnd]

Interesting images from the Chequers summit

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[neeko]

Weeks and months into this process and I still can’t work out if the UK position is brilliant or incompetent.

[RED-DOG]

Weeks and months into this process and I still can’t work out if the UK position is brilliant or incompetent.

[TightEnd]

a big day

[TightEnd]

2015: I'm never trusting polls again
2016: I'm never trusting polls again
2017: I'm never trusting polls again
2018: these polls raise serious questions for Corbyn.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/02/polls-labour-conservatives-next-election

[TightEnd]

The big Brexit crunch will be in parliament.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/25/mrs-mays-awayday-was-a-sideshow-big-brexit-crunch-will-be-in-parliament?CMP=share_btn_tw

[TightEnd]

Brexit’s tricky Irish border dilemma is well explained here ( at length) by Irish Times EU correspondent. I

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0224/943212-brexit-and-the-border-the-great-reckoning/