The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Brexit impact papers viewing requests made by just 6% of MPs and peers

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/05/brexit-impact-papers-viewing-requests-made-by-just-6-of-mps-and-peers

[TightEnd]

Britain’s largest carmaker has added its voice to the chorus of businesses warning against a hard Brexit, as negotiations with the EU (and within the cabinet) heat up.

Jaguar Land Rover piled fresh pressure on the government by warning that tens of thousands of jobs are at risk, if new trade tariffs with Europe are imposed after Brexit.

The news has knocked shares in parent company Tata Motors, and sent another shiver through Britain’s increasingly nervous auto industry.

CEO Ralf Speth quantified the impact, warning that a bad Brexit deal would wipe out more than £1.2bn of profits each year - making new investment simply impractical.

Speth declared:

“As a result, we would have to drastically adjust our spending profile – we have spent around £50bn in the UK in the past five years, with plans for a further £80bn more in the next five. This would be in jeopardy should we be faced with the wrong outcome.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jul/05/tata-motors-jaguar-land-rover-brexit-mark-carney-car-sales-business-live

[TightEnd]

The West Midlands and Liverpool could be badly hit if Jaguar Land Rover cuts investment in the UK or moves production overseas because of Brexit.

The company runs several manufacturing plants in Britain - which have benefitted from billions of pounds in investment since bought JLR a decade ago.

Solihull, Birmingham: More than 6,000 people work here, producing Defender, Discovery, Range Rover and Range Rover Sport models.
Castle Bromwich, Birmingham: 3,200 staff produce Jaguar models, including the F-TYPE, XJ, XF and XK
Gaydon, Coventry: Land Rover design team are based at this engineering site, using virtual-reality technology, wind tunnels, CAD systems and a test tracks to develop new models
Halewood, Liverpool: More than 4,00 people work at this 300-acre site, producing the Range Rover Evoque and the Land Rover Discovery Sport.
Whitley, Coventry: JLR’s global headquarters is based here, along with Jaguar Design and Jaguar Land Rover’s corporate staff.
Wolverhampton: Almost 1,400 people work at JLR’s new Engine Manufacturing Centre, which the company proudly calls “one of the most cutting-edge facilities of its kind in the UK”.
It produces low-emission 4-cylinder Jaguar Land Rover petrol and diesel engines, and is a key part of the company’s expansion strategy in recent years.

[nirvana]

Britain’s largest carmaker has added its voice to the chorus of businesses warning against a hard Brexit, as negotiations with the EU (and within the cabinet) heat up.

Jaguar Land Rover piled fresh pressure on the government by warning that tens of thousands of jobs are at risk, if new trade tariffs with Europe are imposed after Brexit.

The news has knocked shares in parent company Tata Motors, and sent another shiver through Britain’s increasingly nervous auto industry.

CEO Ralf Speth quantified the impact, warning that a bad Brexit deal would wipe out more than £1.2bn of profits each year - making new investment simply impractical.

Speth declared:

“As a result, we would have to drastically adjust our spending profile – we have spent around £50bn in the UK in the past five years, with plans for a further £80bn more in the next five. This would be in jeopardy should we be faced with the wrong outcome.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jul/05/tata-motors-jaguar-land-rover-brexit-mark-carney-car-sales-business-live

What % chance would you put on there being any tariffs between ourselves and the EU post Brexit ..if it happens

[TightEnd]

No deal: WTO Car industry tariffs (trade to/from EU) are 10%. 100% incidence of tariffs to EU across industry

Chance of no deal 60-40 now up from 50-50 and rising still? think thats a consensus view

May wants soft brexit but might not get it past ERG this weekend  so government might fall

A lot of pieces in play.

[TightEnd]

EU not bluffing says Simon Nixon of WSJ

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-eu-may-have-cut-a-deal-before-but-that-was-when-it-felt-secure-bgc22p9wr

[TightEnd]

46 Tory MPs including 11 former cabinet ministers have written to Theresa May urging her to listen to business ahead of the Chequers meeting

50 last Sunday wrote to tell her to go for hard brexit

she has a tough gig!

https://www.ft.com/content/07cfc4be-804a-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

[nirvana]

No deal: WTO Car industry tariffs (trade to/from EU) are 10%. 100% incidence of tariffs to EU across industry

Chance of no deal 60-40 now up from 50-50 and rising still? think thats a consensus view

May wants soft brexit but might not get it past ERG this weekend  so government might fall

A lot of pieces in play.

In a worse case scenario of  no deal but a mutual residual interest, indicated to the WTO, on reaching a free trade deal then my understanding is we can operate with zero tariffs for up to 10 years while a deal is worked on. I can't imagine any scenario where it's in EU interests to not do that. I'd rate the chance of tariffs at zero. If I'm wrong and the EU was bent on ensuring a conflict then I'd happily batten down the hatches, stock tinned peaches and give them a big fk off

[kukushkin88]

Ensuring the UK gets a terrible deal is a really simple way of ensuring the rest of the Union stays intact. In spite of the tragic yet hilarious Mantis fantasy, they hold all of the power. Why would they do anything else? It seems we now want them to be kind to us :-), (Mantis aside) you couldn’t make it up really.

[TightEnd]

Trade deals with the US and others would add just 0.6% to GDP, government's own figures show (compared to 2-8% loss from hard Brexit).

"The notion that the UK will thrive outside the EU's customs union is an ideological fantasy. "

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/02/trade-delusion-why-brexit-won-t-be-britains-salvation

[TightEnd]

David Davis leading frantic bid by Cabinet Leavers to talk Theresa May out of her new ‘soft Brexit’ plan - two showdowns with PM in 24 hours;

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6698448/davis-may-brexit-plan-split/

the latest from sky news is "it’s ‘touch & go’. Cab ministers may not resign but might refuse to back her"

[Doobs]

David Davis leading frantic bid by Cabinet Leavers to talk Theresa May out of her new ‘soft Brexit’ plan - two showdowns with PM in 24 hours;

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6698448/davis-may-brexit-plan-split/

the latest from sky news is "it’s ‘touch & go’. Cab ministers may not resign but might refuse to back her"

Getting Davis and Rees Mogg to feck right off would be a bonus.   Would help packing their bags.

[TightEnd]

Laura Kuenssberg
‏
Verified account
 
@bbclaurak

1. Here's the phrase I hear could cause a lot of trouble tomorrow - the UK will make an 'upfront choice to make a legally binding agreement to ongoing harmonisation with the EU, including agrifoods'

2. Cabinet paper is more than 100 pages long, it also does say that the single standards model' would make it harder, if not impossible, to do a trade deal with the US

3. Decision for Brexiteers is whether they scramble tonight + tomorrow to shoot down the proposals, or whether they allow it to go thro because of political pressure to find an agreement

4. Hear Johnson and Davis plan to argue again for max fac option tomorrow, but on past form, it seems likely that meeting will be bumpy, but will go through

5. In any case, acid test is whether EU sees proposal as remotely credible - one cab minister says that's what this is about, 'to start the conversation' again wtih Brussels, remember until now there have been no proper negs about the future relationship, just about divorce deal

6. But EU sources pretty clear if White Paper isn't in their eyes realistic, the choice becomes again, Norway, or Canada, high or low alignment, best mates or respectful neighbours, here we go round the mulberry bush, again and again, and again

7. What also stays the same is the different arithmetic - majority in Parliament is for something soft and fudgey like this sort of Swiss-ish thing, but there are enough eurosceptics in the Tory party to stop May in her tracks, IF they want to

8. Biggest problem for May as ever, not the enormous complexity of Brexit, but lack of majority - hype is often in inverse proportion to news events once they actually arrive, but PM is v vulnerable in the next few days

[MANTIS01]

Fisheries blueprint unveiled today for UK to take back full control of our own waters.

We will be able to set our own quotas in our own waters for the first time in 50yrs.

Everyone connected with British fishing delighted

Yep, no chance at all that the EU will object to this or restrict access to their markets for our fish and fish products.   Sure "everyone" in the fishing industry must be delighted.  Michael Gove has done such a good thing, that the fishermen all want children with him.  Unfortunately the USA has already declared this to be their independence day, so we'll have to call it Michael Gove day instead.   Or maybe snivelling little shit day is more appropriate?

Good times.

Yes undoubtedly quite right. But here's the clincher, the British don't take kindly to threats and punishment from Jonny foreigner for e.g. fishing our own waters.

And we don't want to be in a union with folk who behave in that way.

It's a cultural thing yo, we're an island nation of people, we're overly proud and a bit arrogant. We love the underdog and we're happy to assume that role. Lots of other traits in our DNA also.

So the threat that other countries will do a, b or c will only make us more determined. It will only back the British bulldog into a corner. Because that is who we are.

That's why tables, charts and figures, doom & gloom stories, or threats about euro politicians being grumpy with us will never make a difference.

it really is barmy. Nationalism that's pretty outmoded in an integrated global economy. British bulldog and cultural throwbacks to byegone eras aren't going to save millions of jobs in a hard brexit, or whistle up a customs solution by the end pf 2020 or preserve peace in Northern Ireland with a hard border

For 250 years, since at least the days Pitt the Elder, British foreign policy has been predicated on not having Europe united against us. Brexit has achieved exactly that. It is a stupendous national folly

Hindus worship thousands of Gods and one's got a trunk. It really is barmy.

Kids think they gonna be astronauts when they grow up. It really is barmy.

Footballers sing God save our Queen with pride. It really is barmy.

Women fall in love with bastards. It really is barmy.

These are amongst a million examples of people behaving like people where logic doesn't compute. But that's people for you.

On the Brexit topic all the brains in all the countries look like they're heading for a lose lose situation for everybody concerned. Why do people do that? It really is barmy.

Europe want to ensure we get a terrible deal? To warn others about stepping out of line? To ensure the union remains intact? All sounds completely bonkers to me. Zero evidence that giving Britain a terrible deal will be good for Europe, will be an effective deterrent, or will ensure the union remains in tact. Where are the tables and charts that prove that hypothesis?

[kukushkin88]

Surely you don’t actually need it to be explained? I assume nearly everything you write is in the ‘tongue in cheek’/‘take it with a pinch of salt’ territory.

Maybe a little assistance. If the only country ever to leave the EU suffered devastation as a result. Other countries would be:

a) More likely to leave
b) More likely to stay