The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

Parliamentary Tory Brexiteers have a simple choice

- stay in power with this deal or something like it, and then work at it post 30/3/19

- risk losing power and risk losing Brexit altogether

At what point in the next 3 weeks will they wake up to that binary choice? Or will they at all?

plenty of twists and turns ahead

[RED-DOG]

Never before has the shit flown in such a long, slow, torturous arc before reaching it's inevitable destination.

[nirvana]

Another TV debate ?

Since there's no vote at the end of it, shirley no-one other than people with their minds made up will watch ?

Perhaps the Tories intent is to try and land the first blows in a looming GE campaign ?

The notional strategy seems to be to persuade the public to persuade their MPs. Can this work ?

I guess I have some interest in seeing May v Corbyn in an environment outside the Commons but that doesn't have much to do with Brexit. If it becomes a wide range of people all shouting each other down it feels too depressing to tune into.

[TightEnd]

UK carmakers warn no-deal Brexit would be ‘catastrophic’

(again)

https://www.ft.com/content/dfe2e338-f253-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d

[MintTrav]

The Chancellor of the Exchequer says that the UK will be worse off economically under any Brexit scenario than if we stay in the EU.

[TightEnd]

HMT Economic analysis out:

Each scenario UK economy will grow, but not as fast as without Brexit. Worse case scenario (over 15 years). No Deal growth up to 10.7% lower (this is based on strict restrictions on EU workers coming to UK)

The No-Deal scenario his two sectors particularly hard: Autos and pharmaceutical could see growth 20% lower over 15 years. Chequers model with tariff-free access (of course this isn't actually deal MPs now voting on), economy 0.6% smaller over 15 years

[TightEnd]

Top line results of the cross Government Brexit impact studies

- No Deal hit to economy over 15 years from -6.3% to -10.7% depending on migration policy
- Canada FTA: -3.4% to -8.1%
- Norway EEA: -0.9 to -2.3
- White Paper: -0.1 to -3.1

[TightEnd]

Yikes

Buried in the analysis of May's Brexit deal is fact it's based on UK successfully signing new deals with US, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Brunei, China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain.

what price a trade deal with all of these on a 3-5 year view?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-uk-government-admits-brexit-will-inevitably-leave-britain-poorer-2018-11

[TightEnd]

John McDonnell says a People's Vote “might be an option we seize upon".

That decision marks a pivtoal - even historical - fork-in-the-road moment either for the future of the UK, if Corbyn agrees with him, or the future of Labour, if Corbyn does not.

[TightEnd]

This is a very good read. Fair too I think, quite balanced

The Tory right believed EU withdrawal could be used to impose a new economic model on the UK. But they sought to govern a country that does not exist,

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/11/how-right-s-brexit-dream-died

[TightEnd]

Spooky

Here's Alan B'stard in the late 1980s. Sounds like it could have been last week!

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1067364193907744768?s=19

[Pokerpops]

This is a very good read. Fair too I think, quite balanced

The Tory right believed EU withdrawal could be used to impose a new economic model on the UK. But they sought to govern a country that does not exist,

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2018/11/how-right-s-brexit-dream-died

Turns out that I’m a Lexiteer. A label I didn’t know existed until I read this article.
But I do believe that the policies mentioned as being supported by Lexiteers would be worthy of support...

greater public investment and state intervention, a revival of UK manufacturing and the rebalancing of the economy away from finance and the south-east of England (drawing on the “Rhineland model” of capitalism or, more radically, democratic socialism). The irony, pehaps, is that as it leaves the EU, the UK could yet develop a more European-style economy.

[MANTIS01]

Bank of England say worst case scenario of No Deal would lead to 30% drop in house prices. What great news for anybody looking to get onto the property ladder.

[TightEnd]

an interesting one

"Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of people flying or displaying the English flag at their home?"

% Favourable

Leavers 75%
Remainers 40%

[TightEnd]

BoE Brexit analysis is a "doom" and "boom" affair.

Doom if no deal ( a worst case scenario)

mini mini Boom if deal goes through AND UK stays v v close to the EU

nice chart. effectively people can input their assumptions and see what that means. on the proviso that the trade deals mentioned in a post yesterday take placeof course