The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

[MANTIS01]

Italy now in recession, German economy in decline, Spanish unemployment significant

Tinned peaches all round

[nirvana]

Italy now in recession, German economy in decline, Spanish unemployment significant

Tinned peaches all round

They need us more than we need them, clearer by the day.

Wonder if their ideologues will win the day over practical considerations.

Fascinating doc the other day on BBC 2 about recent EU history - hearing Sarkozy and other 'ever closer union' types speaking sent a shudder down my spine - pretty much made me feel that I don't care what the disruption is, I don't want to be part of that group. The old Belgian joke goes something along the lines of where do you shoot to kill a Frenchman, about 2 inches above his head to destroy his superiority complex. Doesn't make complete sense but I know what those Belgians mean.

[BigAdz]

This has been my point all along.

We have looked at this as worst case from our perspective.

Europe will have thousands of companies that sell UK stuff, and they aren't going to be best pleased if Europe puts up massive road blocks to them making sales to us, it just makes no sense.

They do need us as much as we need them.

[Doobs]

This has been my point all along.

We have looked at this as worst case from our perspective.

Europe will have thousands of companies that sell UK stuff, and they aren't going to be best pleased if Europe puts up massive road blocks to them making sales to us, it just makes no sense.

They do need us as much as we need them.

They don't.   Other than Ireland, the effect on individual countries is much less severe than it is here.   If 45% of your trade is with block X you are much more effected than if 7% of your trade is with country Y.

So whilst France will be affected, they won't be nearly as affected as we are.   I thought you understood everything when you voted?

[MANTIS01]

And that’s the beauty of this Euro club attitude.

Apart from Ireland the rest of us will be ok.

Fine to feed that member state to the wolves cos we’ll be alright.

Well in fact our citizens will suffer but not as much as UK citizens so it’s ok.

Such an endearing attitude can’t imagine why it’s not more popular.

Go Team Europe!

[RickBFA]

This has been my point all along.

We have looked at this as worst case from our perspective.

Europe will have thousands of companies that sell UK stuff, and they aren't going to be best pleased if Europe puts up massive road blocks to them making sales to us, it just makes no sense.

They do need us as much as we need them

They don't.   Other than Ireland, the effect on individual countries is much less severe than it is here.   If 45% of your trade is with block X you are much more effected than if 7% of your trade is with country Y.

So whilst France will be affected, they won't be nearly as affected as we are.   I thought you understood everything when you voted?

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

Whilst Doobs is right that this affects us more than them, the timing in the economic cycle for the EU is not great.

In 2017 they exported £341 billion of goods to us and we £264 billion to them.

With Italy falling into recession this week and even the mighty German economy struggling, they need this like a hole in the head.

Hopefully they are pragmatic to realise this behind the scenes.

[RickBFA]

Was at a market briefing with a large investment house today. The feeling is that we are now 70% plus to do a deal of some sort. Markets/sterling v dollar etc priced that in currently.

[ripple11]

Was at a market briefing with a large investment house today. The feeling is that we are now 70% plus to do a deal of some sort. Markets/sterling v dollar etc priced that in currently.

At least 70% I would say....bottom line is May, whatever she says, will not allow us to leave without some sort of withdraw agreement/orderly exit.

[Doobs]

And that’s the beauty of this Euro club attitude.

Apart from Ireland the rest of us will be ok.

Fine to feed that member state to the wolves cos we’ll be alright.

Well in fact our citizens will suffer but not as much as UK citizens so it’s ok.

Such an endearing attitude can’t imagine why it’s not more popular.

Go Team Europe!

They have ratified the deal, it is us that haven't.

[Longines]

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

Whilst Doobs is right that this affects us more than them, the timing in the economic cycle for the EU is not great.

In 2017 they exported £341 billion of goods to us and we £264 billion to them.

Raw numbers don't always tell the whole story when comparing two unequal entities.

EU to UK represents 8% of EU total exports.
UK to EU represents 44% of UK total exports.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

I'm yet to be persuaded that they need us more than we need them.

[nirvana]

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

Whilst Doobs is right that this affects us more than them, the timing in the economic cycle for the EU is not great.

In 2017 they exported £341 billion of goods to us and we £264 billion to them.

Raw numbers don't always tell the whole story when comparing two unequal entities.

EU to UK represents 8% of EU total exports.
UK to EU represents 44% of UK total exports.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

I'm yet to be persuaded that they need us more than we need them.

My real view would be that we both need each other from a trading perspective and the numbers probably don't reflect any relative reliance between the parties. Both sides need each other in the short to medium term.  Even in the event of no deal I can't imagine either side taking a course of action that led to any tarriff barriers ( the French would probably want to because they're French). In a practical sense the only real issue would be at the borders with queues possible.

Can't imagine this could take long to resolve

[Longines]

Can't imagine this could take long to resolve

(c) David Davis 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019

[BigAdz]

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851

Whilst Doobs is right that this affects us more than them, the timing in the economic cycle for the EU is not great.

In 2017 they exported £341 billion of goods to us and we £264 billion to them.

Raw numbers don't always tell the whole story when comparing two unequal entities.

EU to UK represents 8% of EU total exports.
UK to EU represents 44% of UK total exports.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

I'm yet to be persuaded that they need us more than we need them.

Sounding like a true remoaner Grant. Present the facts to reflect a doom and gloom outcome only

You still ignore the individuals in this equation. Mr Garcia/Mr Baguette/Mr Schnell etc are still going to be the EU ones hit by losing their percentage of sales. Not sure they will be that happy with Mr Juncker in the months after Brexit if they lose significant amounts of their turnover etc, regardless of the percentage it is of overall EU numbers.


And to another smartarse on here. When did I ever say I understood everything about Brexit before I voted, Doobs? I wouldn't dare be as smug as you.......

[Longines]

Sounding like a true remoaner Grant.

I think we should leave.