The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[BigAdz]

Last time I went to Ireland I went from north to south without getting my passport out.

What needs to change?

Clearly I am far too simple to be amongst such giants of modern thinking so will leave you all to it.

[StuartHopkin]

If we leave with no deal, then NI comes out with us.

That means the south is in the customs union and the north isnt.

That means that there has to be both goods and passport checks meaning are hard border rather than the current soft border.

That is my understanding anyway?

[TightEnd]

If we leave with no deal, then NI comes out with us.

That means the south is in the customs union and the north isnt.

That means that there has to be both goods and passport checks meaning are hard border rather than the current soft border.

That is my understanding anyway?

yes to protect the single market and Rep of Ireland

It is to be hoped that free movement of people continues, but that is only one part of the story

The WA proposed a transition agreement giving 2-3 years to amongst other things develop technoligical solutions to a hard border (so called "max-fac" initiatives) None of which are even off the drawing board yet

Leavers fear that this transition agreement could be unending (a reasonable viewpoint given the barriers to solving the issue) and wouldn't vote for it. here is a good explainer https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/brexit-explained-what-is-the-transition-period-and-why-is-it-so-important-1.3671622

but as i have been saying, accepting the WA at least got us out.

As it is by refusing to vote for it, the ERG upped the stakes.Its much more now no deal or no brexit. No deal might happen, Boris trying to force it through, but Parliamentary votes show there is no majority in the house for it. So if no deal can't pass, and no new prime minister is going to want an election, what happens in October? Boris asks for another extension? He wouldn't deliver Brexit either.

So, de facto,the ERG put the "risk" of a Corbyn goverment up dramatically.

Any new PM faces the same problems May did

[Doobs]

So unpopular opinion one was : Theresa May is right. It’s been the unwillingness of the ERG to compromise that has prevented Brexit (firmly believe that's true)

---

Unpopular opinion 2 might become: Boris failing in Oct 2019, not May, will give legitimacy to bury Brexit.

He will use all of his political capital with Leavers to try and see off the Brexit Party

In an unforeseen event when he became leader , Corbyn will then be onto his fourth Conservative leader

(bookmarked)

If Boris(as a true Brexiteer) or whoever cant convince the EU that Ireland should remain border free in the best interests of peace, then that must surely prove to everyone that the EU doesn't have the correct principles at its heart, regardless of what it thinks of the UK.........do we want to be a part of that???

Boris isn't a true Brexiteer, he is whatever he needs to be at that precise minute to get what he wants.  I suspect he will end up like Trump, with a mass of contradictions defining his various views, no grasp of the unerlying issues and just brazening it out.  Pretty much a continuation of his previous life.

But they all have the same issue, there is no majority for whatever Brexit Boris wants, and the Conservatives still have a wafer thin majority and needs the support of the DUP.  I suspect they just end up going into the next election with no Brexit and a resurgent Brexit party that ensures another wafer thin majority or hung parliament.

 

[MANTIS01]

Amazing to think UK is the only country/region in the world required to deal with border issues...

More amazing to consider that our expectation of leaders is so low that problems are "impossible" to solve and uniting people is beyond contemplation

If we are really and I mean really facing an impossible problem I wish everybody would stop wasting our time.

More accurate to think it's a remain angle which makes stuff impossible.

Yesterday my wife asked me to do a basket of ironing.

Sorry love, impossible!

[TightEnd]

in a customs union, no border issues

outside a customs union,border issues

Switzerland for example doesn't have a sectarian dimension complicating things

In three years there has been no workable solution proposed (beyond a temporary transition agreement buying time) which brexiters won't vote for

hence impossible/unachievable is a fair reflection.

[MANTIS01]

in a customs union, no border issues

outside a customs union,border issues

Switzerland for example doesn't have a sectarian dimension complicating things

In three years there has been no workable solution proposed (beyond a temporary transition agreement buying time) which brexiters won't vote for

hence impossible/unachievable is a fair reflection.

Bespoke customs union just for UK

Hey presto I'm a genius. Throw my hat in the ring for PM somebody.

[TightEnd]

in a customs union, no border issues

outside a customs union,border issues

Switzerland for example doesn't have a sectarian dimension complicating things

In three years there has been no workable solution proposed (beyond a temporary transition agreement buying time) which brexiters won't vote for

hence impossible/unachievable is a fair reflection.

Bespoke customs union just for UK

Hey presto I'm a genius. Throw my hat in the ring for PM somebody.

straight into 10/1 in the 18 runner field

no each way terms

so Brexiters would accept a Bespoke customs union then?

ERG
House of Commons
Houses of Parliament,
London
SW1A 0AA

Attn Steve Baker

you better tell them! :-)

[TightEnd]

Boris is in Switzerland today. Paid speaking engagement

He has set out his Brexit stance.

V significant:

“A new leader will have the opportunity to do things differently and have the momentum of a new administration. We will leave the EU on October 31 deal or no deal. The way to get a good deal is to prepare for a no deal"

So TL/DR: Prime Minister Johnson would go back to Brussels to renegotiate the deal (and remove the controversial Irish border backstop). And if he fails, full steam ahead for no-deal in October.

However.

The Single Market is the crown jewel of the EU.  If EU concedes on the 4 Freedoms doctrine, then it may as well disband.  So it looks like hard Brexit.

But.

Parliament has repeatedly said it won't permit that to happen, so no change here.

So.

We'll still be in the EU on 1st November as Boris will have asked for yet another extension.

I struggle to get alternatives to this

[Woodsey]

Boris is in Switzerland today. Paid speaking engagement

He has set out his Brexit stance.

V significant:

“A new leader will have the opportunity to do things differently and have the momentum of a new administration. We will leave the EU on October 31 deal or no deal. The way to get a good deal is to prepare for a no deal"

So TL/DR: Prime Minister Johnson would go back to Brussels to renegotiate the deal (and remove the controversial Irish border backstop). And if he fails, full steam ahead for no-deal in October.

However.

The Single Market is the crown jewel of the EU.  If EU concedes on the 4 Freedoms doctrine, then it may as well disband.  So it looks like hard Brexit.

But.

Parliament has repeatedly said it won't permit that to happen, so no change here.

So.

We'll still be in the EU on 1st November as Boris will have asked for yet another extension.

I struggle to get alternatives to this

How can parliament stop the next PM running down the clock and not asking for an extension so we fall out with no deal by default?

[TightEnd]

vote of no confidence called and wins.

For that to win the remain MPs on the Tory side have to fall on their general election swords to avoid no deal. the greater good.

They just might, depends how Boris (if PM) goes with them June to October

this was in my big write up of two days ago on here

[BigAdz]

Not sure why the rest of us bother.

Tighty knows. End of.....

[Pokerpops]

Not sure why the rest of us bother.

Tighty knows. End of.....

What’s this? BigArz concedes that he doesn’t actually have an argument to set against Tighty’s fact-based approach?

[RED-DOG]

Not sure why the rest of us bother.

Tighty knows. End of.....

It's not end of.

Tighty only offers one opinion, his own, and that is subject to debate.

We all get to offer our opinion, subject to debate. That's how forums work.

[engy]

Not sure why the rest of us bother.

Tighty knows. End of.....

What’s this? BigArz concedes that he doesn’t actually have an argument to set against Tighty’s fact-based approach?


[/quote

What’s this? BigArz concedes that he doesn’t actually have an argument to set against Tighty’s fact-based approach? Then spits dummy out