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Poll
Question: How will you vote on December 12th 2019
Conservative - 19 (33.9%)
Labour - 12 (21.4%)
SNP - 2 (3.6%)
Lib Dem - 8 (14.3%)
Brexit - 1 (1.8%)
Green - 6 (10.7%)
Other - 2 (3.6%)
Spoil - 0 (0%)
Not voting - 6 (10.7%)
Total Voters: 56

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Author Topic: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged  (Read 1327945 times)
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« Reply #20865 on: September 15, 2019, 10:50:19 AM »

Good articles found yesterday


"Boris Johnson is trapped in a prison of his own construction. He isn't out of options, but it must be horrendous to know that all routes to freedom rely on the kindness of people who hate him"

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/14/uk/boris-johnson-is-trapped-in-a-brexit-prison-he-helped-build-intl-gbr/index.html
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« Reply #20866 on: September 15, 2019, 10:50:50 AM »

Why the UK hasn’t presented any specific, backstop proposal to the EU

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/why-the-uk-hasnt-presented-any-specific-backstop-proposal-to-the-eu/
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« Reply #20867 on: September 15, 2019, 10:51:31 AM »

The UK thinks it can satisfy two of the EU’s three requirements for a backstop replacement. But it is the 3rd one—no checks on the island of Ireland—which is where the problem is

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9926048/boris-negotiate-weakened-parliament-new-deal/
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« Reply #20868 on: September 15, 2019, 10:52:12 AM »

Will Boris Johnson go for a NI-only backstop? Here’s RTE's take on the political and legal challenges.

https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0914/1075800-brexit-gamble-boris-backstop/
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« Reply #20869 on: September 15, 2019, 10:53:58 AM »

Gyimah,a minister two months ago, defects to the LDs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49703214

We are seeing the one nation wing of the Conservative party now not under the whip and in some cases moving to other partes
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« Reply #20870 on: September 15, 2019, 10:55:34 AM »

The Opinium poll yesterday was an eye opener

Opinium/Observer latest:

CON: 37% (+2)
LAB: 25% (-)
LDEM: 16% (-1)
BREX: 13% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)

Previous we have been seeing CON+BXP = LAB+LD+GRN, this is the first one that has CON/BXP a few points clear
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« Reply #20871 on: September 15, 2019, 10:58:52 AM »

More in line with other recent polls Comres then came out

CON 28
LAB 27
LD 20
BXP 13
SNP 4
GRN 2
OTHERS 2
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« Reply #20872 on: September 15, 2019, 10:59:37 AM »

The path of polling is interesting

this wiki page shows them in chronological order

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
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« Reply #20873 on: September 15, 2019, 11:07:20 AM »

Latest Brexit, "what next?", flowchart

aka the Elephant
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« Reply #20874 on: September 16, 2019, 01:17:37 AM »

The path of polling is interesting

this wiki page shows them in chronological order

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

The polling seems wild at the minute.  I can't remember a time when there was such disagreement in the polls.  Yougove have been consistenly putting the Tories higher than average for a while, so that is no surprise, but just look at the variety just this last week there have been 2 polls giving the Tories a 1% lead and tow others giving them 12% and 14%.
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« Reply #20875 on: September 16, 2019, 11:46:42 AM »

Latest Brexit, "what next?", flowchart

aka the Elephant

Ah saw this on twitter....but they couldn't answer the most important question................Indian or African ?
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« Reply #20876 on: September 16, 2019, 02:37:05 PM »

Latest Brexit, "what next?", flowchart

aka the Elephant

Ah saw this on twitter....but they couldn't answer the most important question................Indian or African ?


“Queen asks Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister”... 
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
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« Reply #20877 on: September 16, 2019, 10:42:39 PM »

Pretty interesting article here which tries to explain why the polls are all over the place at the moment.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10093

Seems a lot of it comes down to people either not remembering, or deliberately misstating, who they voted for at the last election. The polling companies try to correct for this in different ways, hence big difference in the numbers they report.
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« Reply #20878 on: September 17, 2019, 12:16:55 AM »

I am not surprised to see the backlash to the Lib Dem position in the last few days. They are basically the new Brexit Party, with one message.

I've seen tweets, facebook posts and so on from people say it's not fair to say let's just cancel Brexit. They believe the ultimate way foward is a second vote. I think my favourite response was seeing "A stupid policy from a party who know they'll not get in".

The surge from the Lib Dems has been a lot slower since Jo Swinson joined. She ultimately might want to stop Brexit, but she will probably be paving the way for Brexit to happen.
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« Reply #20879 on: September 17, 2019, 11:21:29 AM »

Didn't the Lib Dem surge just happen because people faced the reality of voting for a party with an ambiguous Brexit position, and not because Vince Cable was better than Jo Swinson.   Since she has taken over their support has remained at the level it was when she took over.

I don't realloy see why a 2nd referendum is so great, have people not learned anything from having one before?  And I don't see how a 1-1 score really helps.  I also don't think that there isn't much wrong in having a manifesto with a simple Brexit policy.   
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