The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

The non-debate of the non-leaders. New post on Grey'sBrexit Blog reviewing the latest Brexit developments through the lens of the Corbyn-Johnson TV debate.

The awful truth is that we did actually hear all they have to say about Brexit.

Just up, now: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-no

[StuartHopkin]

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

I agree, it really is something else.
The worst bit is, I think he actually believe's he can deliver it.

The one that annoys me the most is getting rid of student debt and tuition fees.
The system works pretty fairly really why would you scrap it, other than to buy student votes.

I think you are going to have a pretty good sweat Aaron, I reckon they will be in the 185-205 range so it should be an exciting night for your investments!

[mulhuzz]

The non-debate of the non-leaders. New post on Grey'sBrexit Blog reviewing the latest Brexit developments through the lens of the Corbyn-Johnson TV debate.

The awful truth is that we did actually hear all they have to say about Brexit.

Just up, now: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-no

fixed the link: https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-non-debate-of-non-leaders.html

also: https://www.thetorymanifesto.com/

[TightEnd]

Did anyone watch this last night?

Excellent clip if you want to just ponder political messaging, people’s perceptions of wealth and just stubborn pig-headedness!

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1197656952240791562

[Sheriff Fatman]

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.

Judging by the reaction to it from the audience on Question Time last night, I sense the latter is the more accurate of these two takes on the manifesto.  Ultimately I think people over-estimate the impact of manifesto launches in general, and very few of the people who vote will actually read any of them.

I'm intrigued as to whether the 'costings' in this one are as tenuous as the GE17 version, where they analysed a small proportion of their plans, and shunted everything else into 'capital spend'.  Given that the basic policy is 'if we don't like it, nationalise it' I suspect it will be more of the same.

There's some interesting analysis of Labour's wording around the referendum option they're offering, as to whether it would require a 'super-majority' of 65% for Remain to prevail.  Suggestions that this has come from a shadow cabinet source, and Barry Gardiner (who else) has said similar in previous interviews.  I haven't seen the question asked outright of anyone post-manifesto launch but I hope that someone asks it.  Anything other than a straight 'yes' in response would be telling.

Manifesto-wise, Labour's best hope is that the Tory manifesto launch is as disastrous as the last one.  It was that, rather than anything in the Labour one, that had the most telling impact on the GE17 election.

[Cf]

Did anyone watch this last night?

Excellent clip if you want to just ponder political messaging, people’s perceptions of wealth and just stubborn pig-headedness!

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1197656952240791562

I've seen the clip. Whole thing is ridiculous. Did have the typical frothing at the mouth QT audience member look.

Thought it was a good advert for Labour on the whole.

[TightEnd]

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.

Judging by the reaction to it from the audience on Question Time last night, I sense the latter is the more accurate of these two takes on the manifesto.  Ultimately I think people over-estimate the impact of manifesto launches in general, and very few of the people who vote will actually read any of them.

I'm intrigued as to whether the 'costings' in this one are as tenuous as the GE17 version, where they analysed a small proportion of their plans, and shunted everything else into 'capital spend'.  Given that the basic policy is 'if we don't like it, nationalise it' I suspect it will be more of the same.

There's some interesting analysis of Labour's wording around the referendum option they're offering, as to whether it would require a 'super-majority' of 65% for Remain to prevail.  Suggestions that this has come from a shadow cabinet source, and Barry Gardiner (who else) has said similar in previous interviews.  I haven't seen the question asked outright of anyone post-manifesto launch but I hope that someone asks it.  Anything other than a straight 'yes' in response would be telling.

Manifesto-wise, Labour's best hope is that the Tory manifesto launch is as disastrous as the last one.  It was that, rather than anything in the Labour one, that had the most telling impact on the GE17 election.

rightly or wrongly, the 2008-09 financial crash apparently still comes up on the doorstep when Labour and economics comes up.

Magic Grandpa's manifesto has the feel, which possibly may not be fair, of something that is playing to his core vote to shore up a position post election than something that will win a majority and win over the marginal voter

Yes its fully costed but a) raising those funds not easy (tax evasion etc) and b) the sums are eye-watering. 

[TightEnd]

An analysis of the LD attempt

Britain’s Lib Dems unveil a manifesto to counter their polling squeeze

Strict fiscal rules to tempt Tory voters, big spending to woo Labourites

https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/11/21/britains-lib-dems-unveil-a-manifesto-to-counter-their-polling-squeeze

[Doobs]

Did anyone watch this last night?

Excellent clip if you want to just ponder political messaging, people’s perceptions of wealth and just stubborn pig-headedness!

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1197656952240791562

I've seen the clip. Whole thing is ridiculous. Did have the typical frothing at the mouth QT audience member look.

Thought it was a good advert for Labour on the whole.

I think Richard Burgon did pretty well here.  There is a temptation to question yourself when somebody is so adamant that you are wrong.  I wish he would have just said "yes if you earn over 80k you will pay extra tax" rather than pretend it was billionaires and some unamed others who aren't there that got hit. 

He could be making the mistake of confusing the wealthiest 5% with the top 5% of earners, as many do.  There is a pretty good chance that he isn't in the wealthiest 5%, though 50% might be a stretch...     

[Magic817]

Did anyone watch this last night?

Excellent clip if you want to just ponder political messaging, people’s perceptions of wealth and just stubborn pig-headedness!

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1197656952240791562

https://twitter.com/TheIDSmiths/status/1197830064106287104?s=20

Another version of this!

[TightEnd]

Very good report from Channel 4 a couple of days ago on UK trade policy after Brexit. Essentially a mystery - unrealistic timescales, unknown motivations, under-discussed in the election

https://www.channel4.com/news/what-actually-is-the-uks-post-brexit-trade-policy

[TightEnd]

very inventive ad for an MP's campaign

https://twitter.com/DrRosena/status/1197884965444366337?s=20

[aaron1867]

I genuinely think the Labour manifesto is going to change things. It really is something else. How can you work in the public sector and not vote for them? My personal belief is that manifesto is just going to stop people from being able to go from Labour to Conservative and I think Lib Dem movers might think twice too.

I really do think Labour are going to do a lot better than people think. I am absolutely all over the over 200s at evens.

There is a widely accepted belief that successful change comes through evolution not revolution.

Corbyn is certainly going for the revolution route. The list of promises is long and financially pretty scary.

I think the public will see them as a fantasy wish list. It plays perfectly into the narrative that Labour can’t be trusted with the economy.

Of course it’s seen by some as a fantasy wish list, but to those struggling which box to tick as either leave or remain, they may just tick the Labour box. I could see plenty of public sector staff doing this for the increase.

But also the costing of their manifesto have been quoted as fair and can fund his wish list. Along with nationalising been quoted as being able to pay for itself in 8 (I think) years

I genuinely think that labour will smash 200, but still lose seats from 2017

[nirvana]

Did anyone watch this last night?

Excellent clip if you want to just ponder political messaging, people’s perceptions of wealth and just stubborn pig-headedness!

https://twitter.com/L__Macfarlane/status/1197656952240791562

I've seen the clip. Whole thing is ridiculous. Did have the typical frothing at the mouth QT audience member look.

Thought it was a good advert for Labour on the whole.

I think Richard Burgon did pretty well here.  There is a temptation to question yourself when somebody is so adamant that you are wrong.  I wish he would have just said "yes if you earn over 80k you will pay extra tax" rather than pretend it was billionaires and some unamed others who aren't there that got hit. 

He could be making the mistake of confusing the wealthiest 5% with the top 5% of earners, as many do.  There is a pretty good chance that he isn't in the wealthiest 5%, though 50% might be a stretch...     

Agree he didn't too badly but he should have asked him what he earned and calculated the marginal additional tax he would pay. i know not everyone can do that but it's pretty easy to do. Or maybe just have a pre-prepared crib sheet too hand - summat like for every 10K over 80k you earn you will be paying about £40 a month more tax or whatever the numbers are. I think he should have been able to do a bit better and make it clear to the whole audience that £80k a year means you're in the top 5% -FACT- and as you say, confirm he will pay more. Most people would be perfectly accepting of this because 95% etc

[Pokerpops]

John. McDonnnell on TV and radio this morning spouting all sorts of very reasonable arguments in support of tax increases on companies and high earning individuals.
Unfortunately it fell apart when he explained that the reason why companies who were paying more tax wouldn’t simply put up prices. It’s because the elected’worker directors’ will stop them.
When he followed that up with the plan to roll back the ‘anti-union’ laws and re-introduce collective bargaining the fantasy of a socialist led utopia slipped down the plug hole.