The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[aaron1867]

In the last polls of the 2017 election, Tories had a 8 point lead, ended up equating to a 2.75 lead

Labour generally polling 7-11 points behind, still two weeks to go, but generally gaining

Polls have long been unreliable

[RickBFA]

Times projecting 68 Tory majority

Tories 359
Labour 211
Lib Dem 13
SNP 43

[nirvana]

I'll be extremely surprised if the Tories don't get at least 350 seats.

As with the referendum,  just painting a very negative and disastrous future under the Tories and in the event Brexit happens is not enough. The 'remain' parties best offer is to deprive the Tories of a majority, leading to another hung parliament and minority Tory Government. That's not enough either.

This election should have been the biggest open goal in history. Social care, and fair benefits is a massive issue and I'm sure Labour should have banged that drum non stop day in day out ahead of the NHS and demonstrable lies (NHS for Sale, drugs will be 500m a week more) , way ahead of WASPI women, ahead of ad hominem attacks on Johnson's character, ahead of attacks on billionaires. When you attack 'billionaires' , just 150 people in the UK, it's a dog whistle to attack everyone who has achieved and earned quite well. People way outside the top 5% - say earning 50k a year and owning a house will feel just as attacked by this as the billionaire.

A much more honest proposition and winning one in  my view would be to propose the reforms necessary to Universal credit (just give people the money in advance ffs), disability benefits, social care and explain it's about a different vision of what the country should be and we will all (say everyone earning over 40k) will need to pay more tax.  Make it a collective proposition and try to bring people with you.

These things matter much more than re-nationalisation, than banging on about workers rights, gender pay gaps, zero hours contracts, Islamophobia - oh, and stop being anti semitic

[Sheriff Fatman]

Times MRP poll looks pretty grim overall.

Given how few seats it predicts for the Lib Dems, Aaron will be gutted to see it forecasts Sheffield Hallam as a Lib Dem gain.

The 2017 version was a pretty good predictor of the outcome.  Hoping that this one won't prove to be the case.  

The Tories probably won't like the forecast at this stage, as it may prompt some changes in voter behaviour now that the outcome looks so stark.

[nirvana]

Er..nothing

[aaron1867]

Times MRP poll looks pretty grim overall.

Given how few seats it predicts for the Lib Dems, Aaron will be gutted to see it forecasts Sheffield Hallam as a Lib Dem gain.

The 2017 version was a pretty good predictor of the outcome.  Hoping that this one won't prove to be the case.  

The Tories probably won't like the forecast at this stage, as it may prompt some changes in voter behaviour now that the outcome looks so stark.

I’m not bothered about Sheffield Hallam which way it goes. I just wouldn’t be taking the 1/3 on it happenning following the LD drop.

As I’ve seen all over Twitter, it’s scary if you’re remain, but the poll surely can’t factor in so many other factors. Voter reg, tactical voting, Brexit Party, etc

[aaron1867]

There’s been lots of backlash to the poll to be fair

Lots of Labour/remain voters saying they no longer get ask to survey

Doesn’t take into account high registrations

Too much information is sometimes an over analysis

2015

Other polls not agreeing

2 weeks to go

[Doobs]

Agree with pretty much everything Nirvana says above.  I guess the last few words may have been a joke?  It makes no sense to me to object to references to Islamaphobia and then go straight into labelling others as anti-semetic.  Both major parties have their fair share of people who fit both descriptions.

On polling, just because one poll was pretty accurate last time, doesn't mean that is the poll which is going to be pretty accurate this time.   I haven't checked, but a 60 majority is likely to be within the margin of error for most polls.  That means that even if a poll predicts a 60 majority, a hung parliament wouldn't be a significantly different result.

It wasn't that long ago that people were saying the betting was a more accurate predictor than opinion polls as money was at stake, blah, blah.  If people are still saying stuff like that, there aren't as many of them after Trump and the EU referendum.

What is fairly certain is that in 2 weeks time some people are going to say their predictions/polls/betting were right, and others will believe that getting that one prediction right amounted to strong evidence that the methodology behind it was the "correct" one.

[Jon MW]

Times projecting 68 Tory majority

Tories 359
Labour 211
Lib Dem 13
SNP 43

The margin oferror they state give a range of seats for the Tories as 328 to 385 for a bit of context.

[ripple11]

Times projecting 68 Tory majority

Tories 359
Labour 211
Lib Dem 13
SNP 43

The margin of error they state give a range of seats for the Tories as 328 to 385 for a bit of context.

Obviously even 328 get Boris back in number 10 .....but I wonder how many does he realistically needs as a minimum to complete a full term of 5 years without the worries of being out voted in the commons?

Some Tory MP's will leave this world, some might change parties, some might be a rebel on certain votes.....335?

Still think it will be tight.

[nirvana]

Agree with pretty much everything Nirvana says above.  I guess the last few words may have been a joke?  It makes no sense to me to object to references to Islamaphobia and then go straight into labelling others as anti-semetic.  Both major parties have their fair share of people who fit both descriptions.

On polling, just because one poll was pretty accurate last time, doesn't mean that is the poll which is going to be pretty accurate this time.   I haven't checked, but a 60 majority is likely to be within the margin of error for most polls.  That means that even if a poll predicts a 60 majority, a hung parliament wouldn't be a significantly different result.

It wasn't that long ago that people were saying the betting was a more accurate predictor than opinion polls as money was at stake, blah, blah.  If people are still saying stuff like that, there aren't as many of them after Trump and the EU referendum.

What is fairly certain is that in 2 weeks time some people are going to say their predictions/polls/betting were right, and others will believe that getting that one prediction right amounted to strong evidence that the methodology behind it was the "correct" one.

On Islamophobia, I accept of course that it's a real issue in the same way as anti semitism is. Maybe I'm a bit too cynical but I don't think it's very effective electorally or particularly smart to fight one accusation with another. I think Labour's calculation (and I'm sure it is a calculation) is there are more muslims in the UK than Hindus and Jews combined so they beat this drum quite a bit. My take also, is that after recent years, a very large number of people in this country are mildly islamophobic. I don't mean they hate muslims or would attack them or incite others but I'd be really surprised, if after the last 15 years or so, this message about islamophobia resonates strongly with vast numbers of non muslims.

Also, I think I should have chucked climate change in there - i'm not a denier but I am cynical about political motivation. Think most people want to do their bit and understand change is needed but I doubt that vast numbers of the electorate genuinely feel any kind of existential threat and would be perfectly happy with the Tories 2050 target for example.

Labour feels like a protest movement more than ever with an attempt to appeal to every special interest group and, here, I still don't think that's very electable.

Looking forward to results night more than any other election I can remember - wonder how wildly off the mark some of us may prove to be - I'm sticking with Tories 350+ as i'm convinced far less people follow politics and the detail than we ever give due credit for

[nirvana]

No kind of expert on currency markets but the moves since the election were called appear to suggest that the Tory assertion that uncertainty is the depressing factor, rather than the fact of Brexit itself, is pretty accurate

[Doobs]

Boris gets Laura for his sitdown then?

BBCPoliticsUK on my timeline, got me

It seems pretty likely he isn't going to agree to Andrew Neil at all, and also not showing up for channel 4 tonight.  Yet Steve Bannon found it easy to get a slot with him... and guess he wasn't such a busy man all those times when Jennifer Acuri needed a hand?

[RED-DOG]

We hear about anti-Semitism and Islamophobia all the time, (and so we should) but how often to you see someone accused of Antiziganism by a political party or by the media?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiziganism#Public_opinion


It's a long read but if you can't handle it you can scroll down to United Kingdom.

(Or of course, you can ignore it altogether  ).

[teddybloat]

Will these polls capture the increased young participation? Are landline surveys going to capture that?

Being the one stopped clock last time might not mean much