The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Sheriff Fatman]

We hear about anti-Semitism and Islamophobia all the time, (and so we should) but how often to you see someone accused of Antiziganism by a political party or by the media?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiziganism#Public_opinion


It's a long read but if you can't handle it you can scroll down to United Kingdom.

(Or of course, you can ignore it altogether  ).

Have you seen this section of the Tory manifesto, Tom (copied from Twitter, where I've seen some (limited) reference to it)?  They use the term 'travellers', but I can't imagine that there's been a more blatant example of this type of discrimination committed to a manifesto previously by a mainstream party.

[aaron1867]

Times projecting 68 Tory majority

Tories 359
Labour 211
Lib Dem 13
SNP 43

The margin of error they state give a range of seats for the Tories as 328 to 385 for a bit of context.

Obviously even 328 get Boris back in number 10 .....but I wonder how many does he realistically needs as a minimum to complete a full term of 5 years without the worries of being out voted in the commons?

Some Tory MP's will leave this world, some might change parties, some might be a rebel on certain votes.....335?

Still think it will be tight.

Boris said to be looking for a majority of 9

[nirvana]

Really good young pundit on Politics live now that I have not seen before - Torsten Bell, gonna have to look into his research org. He's just very clever and explains things so clearly

[Doobs]

We hear about anti-Semitism and Islamophobia all the time, (and so we should) but how often to you see someone accused of Antiziganism by a political party or by the media?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiziganism#Public_opinion


It's a long read but if you can't handle it you can scroll down to United Kingdom.

(Or of course, you can ignore it altogether  ).

Hi Tom

I can't say I have ever heard the word before, or if I did, it never sank in*.  That isn't to say I was unaware of the prejudice you face.  You have done a very good job in educating me (and likely others) on the prejudices you face and I defintely cringe more when I hear the word pikey than I would have done 10 years ago.  I genuinely hope it becomes as unacceptable as anti-semism is now and Islamaphobia is becoming.  

The constant focus on Labour anti-semitism is a bit grating now.  Opinion polls have shown that there are higher number of racists, and anti-semites,  supporting the Conservative Party than supporting Labour.  I am also a bit sceptical of people that believe that Jeremy Corbyn is more racist than Boris Johnson.  I get that he has hung round with a few bad eggs over he years, but Boris Johnson has a lot of recent history, and has been a lot less careful with his own particualr wording over the years.

I don't think people should pick and choose though, just going on about one form of prejudice that suits your narritive is wrong whichever way you cut it.  I can eye-roll just as well at both labour and conservative supporters here.  

* probably more liekly these days

[Doobs]

We hear about anti-Semitism and Islamophobia all the time, (and so we should) but how often to you see someone accused of Antiziganism by a political party or by the media?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antiziganism#Public_opinion


It's a long read but if you can't handle it you can scroll down to United Kingdom.

(Or of course, you can ignore it altogether  ).

Have you seen this section of the Tory manifesto, Tom (copied from Twitter, where I've seen some (limited) reference to it)?  They use the term 'travellers', but I can't imagine that there's been a more blatant example of this type of discrimination committed to a manifesto previously by a mainstream party.

I think it was mentioned on Blonde when Priti Patel annouced this, though might have read it elsewhere.

FWIW The police have already come out against this


https://inews.co.uk/news/priti-patel-gypsies-travellers-halting-sites-evictions-police-1040494

I think the Guardian, or another paper, also got access to each police response to the consultation and the responses were mainly against what Priti Patel and the Conservatives have proposed. 

[Jon MW]

Times projecting 68 Tory majority

Tories 359
Labour 211
Lib Dem 13
SNP 43

The margin of error they state give a range of seats for the Tories as 328 to 385 for a bit of context.

Obviously even 328 get Boris back in number 10 .....but I wonder how many does he realistically needs as a minimum to complete a full term of 5 years without the worries of being out voted in the commons?

Some Tory MP's will leave this world, some might change parties, some might be a rebel on certain votes.....335?

Still think it will be tight.

Boris said to be looking for a majority of 9

At the end of October I did some analysis using the opinion polls, Electoral Calculus and some jiggery pokery and I got

CON   335
LAB   219
LIB   27
Green   1
SNP   47
PlaidC   3
N.Ire   18

So would still look ok for Boris if that was the case

[Doobs]

Times projecting 68 Tory majority

Tories 359
Labour 211
Lib Dem 13
SNP 43

The margin of error they state give a range of seats for the Tories as 328 to 385 for a bit of context.

Obviously even 328 get Boris back in number 10 .....but I wonder how many does he realistically needs as a minimum to complete a full term of 5 years without the worries of being out voted in the commons?

Some Tory MP's will leave this world, some might change parties, some might be a rebel on certain votes.....335?

Still think it will be tight.

Boris said to be looking for a majority of 9

Where does he say this?

The difference between and a 9 seat majority and a hung parliament must be fractions of a percent in the overall vote  (like 0.2% or similar), and a majority of 9 leaves you very vulnerable to defectors and mortality/sickness.  I am sure he'd take 9, but he really isn't looking for 9.

[arbboy]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-sikh-turban-racist-general-election-philip-dunne-kuldip-sahota-ludlow-a9222776.html

You have to wonder how these people get jobs in the first place as MP's in 2019?  The tories still have the ability to mess up badly on gaffs like this.

[aaron1867]

Times projecting 68 Tory majority

Tories 359
Labour 211
Lib Dem 13
SNP 43

The margin of error they state give a range of seats for the Tories as 328 to 385 for a bit of context.

Obviously even 328 get Boris back in number 10 .....but I wonder how many does he realistically needs as a minimum to complete a full term of 5 years without the worries of being out voted in the commons?

Some Tory MP's will leave this world, some might change parties, some might be a rebel on certain votes.....335?

Still think it will be tight.

Boris said to be looking for a majority of 9

Where does he say this?

The difference between and a 9 seat majority and a hung parliament must be fractions of a percent in the overall vote  (like 0.2% or similar), and a majority of 9 leaves you very vulnerable to defectors and mortality/sickness.  I am sure he'd take 9, but he really isn't looking for 9.

Of course he isn’t looking specifically for 9 and would like more. I know somewhere I read it though and according to Google he said it on YouTube and Sun reported it.

[Marky147]

Boris gets Laura for his sitdown then?

BBCPoliticsUK on my timeline, got me

It seems pretty likely he isn't going to agree to Andrew Neil at all, and also not showing up for channel 4 tonight.  Yet Steve Bannon found it easy to get a slot with him... and guess he wasn't such a busy man all those times when Jennifer Acuri needed a hand?

I got caught by a spoof Twitter handle whilst whizzing through my timeline looking for boxing news, and why I crossed it out.

Then I saw that 'unable to tiie him down to a date', so guess they likely weren't wrong despite messing around

[Cf]

If you're a remainer and would vote based on the basis of keeping the tories out then our poll is a nice example of the issue with FPTP.

[superwomble]

If you're a remainer and would vote based on the basis of keeping the tories out then our poll is a nice example of the issue with FPTP.

Unless the LibDem voters are voting tactically?

[TightEnd]

Kensington is a good example of the "problem"

Heavy remain consituency, one side (Grenfell, North Kensington) very red, the other side of the constituency (other side of the A40 flyover up Ladbroke Grove) very blue

Proper three way marginal

MRP yesterday has 37% Con, 29% Lib, 26% Lab from memory

So split remain vote (no signs of a proper tactical vote pact locally) means Brexit-supporting party takes the seat

[ripple11]

Kensington is a good example of the "problem"

Heavy remain consituency, one side (Grenfell, North Kensington) very red, the other side of the constituency (other side of the A40 flyover up Ladbroke Grove) very blue

Proper three way marginal

MRP yesterday has 37% Con, 29% Lib, 26% Lab from memory

So split remain vote (no signs of a proper tactical vote pact locally) means Brexit-supporting party takes the seat

As the Brexit candidate standing here would say, it's about "Making Your Mind Up"

[dakky]

Will these polls capture the increased young participation? Are landline surveys going to capture that?

Being the one stopped clock last time might not mean much

I've been doing some polling and calling people and damn it's hard to get hold of 18-34 year olds, and slightly less hard to get 35-44 year olds. We have been calling mobiles as well as landlines but...