Euro 2016 thread

[bergeroo]

I had a little ew on Morata with the last of the 25s for topscorer!

Draw for the last 16 could look like this if it goes to form.

Second place teams
Spain v x
England v x
Portugal v Belg/Italy
-----
Germany v x
Italy/Belg v x
France v x
Second place teams

The two favourites look likely to be in the same half of the draw if it goes to form. Spain avoid them both and get to play second place teams in the quarters, must be nice!

England's draw could be better, could be worse I guess. If we come second in the group we get a second place team in the last 16 from Group F (weakest Group) - but would be in Germany/France side of the draw

---

On a side note, I wish they had kept it at 16 teams, can't really get excited about the group stages. Think there will be a lot of negative games with draws being more important as four of the third place sides go through. Hope I'm wrong!

[TightEnd]

this is some of my stuff, with the simulation material sourced



The groups drawn were as follows:

Group A: France, Albania, Romania, Switzerland.
Group B: England, Wales, Slovakia, Russia.
Group C: Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine.
Group D: Spain, Turkey, Czech Republic, Croatia.
Group E: Belgium, Republic of Ireland, Sweden, Italy.
Group F: Portugal, Iceland, Hungary, Austria.

Due to the competition format, simulations in the following report

http://www.scribd.com/doc/290626039/EURO-2016-The-Group-E-effect

have shown that teams from Group E have an approximately 28% lower chance of reaching the final than teams from group A.

With placings for the last sixteen already decided, this is because according to the report linked above

“1. The winners of group A, B, C and D get to face third-placed teams, when the winners of group E and F move on to face runner-ups (A clear disadvantage)

2. The runner-ups of group A, B, C and F get to face other runner-ups, when the runner-ups of group D and E move on to face winners (A clear disadvantage).

3. This would in theory mean that teams that qualify from Group E already have a lower probability of reaching the quarter-final just by getting drawn into group E. For group D and F this means that they will have a higher probability than the teams from group E, but a lower probability than the ones from group A, B or C”

[bergeroo]

Interesting link - thanks!

It is almost as if the hosts set it up to have the easiest route to the final!

this is some of my stuff, with the simulation material sourced



The groups drawn were as follows:

Group A: France, Albania, Romania, Switzerland.
Group B: England, Wales, Slovakia, Russia.
Group C: Germany, Northern Ireland, Poland, Ukraine.
Group D: Spain, Turkey, Czech Republic, Croatia.
Group E: Belgium, Republic of Ireland, Sweden, Italy.
Group F: Portugal, Iceland, Hungary, Austria.

Due to the competition format, simulations in the following report

http://www.scribd.com/doc/290626039/EURO-2016-The-Group-E-effect

have shown that teams from Group E have an approximately 28% lower chance of reaching the final than teams from group A.

With placings for the last sixteen already decided, this is because according to the report linked above

“1. The winners of group A, B, C and D get to face third-placed teams, when the winners of group E and F move on to face runner-ups (A clear disadvantage)

2. The runner-ups of group A, B, C and F get to face other runner-ups, when the runner-ups of group D and E move on to face winners (A clear disadvantage).

3. This would in theory mean that teams that qualify from Group E already have a lower probability of reaching the quarter-final just by getting drawn into group E. For group D and F this means that they will have a higher probability than the teams from group E, but a lower probability than the ones from group A, B or C”

[dino1980]

Anyone put any bets on yet? I've mainly concentrated on the Outright and Top Goalscorer markets thus far although I've done Spain/France and Spain/Germany 'name the finalists' bets.


I've got:

Outright:
France
Austria
Croatia
Portugal

Top Goalscorer:

Fancied:
Griezmann
Giroud

Mid-priced:
Morata
Pelle
KDB
Hazard
Janko

Long shots:
Milik
Hanrik
Arnautovic

I may have gone overboard in the top goalscorer market! However I'm in profit should one of them scoop. Top Goalscorer market usually chopped though which is a concern!

[exstream]

Giroud, very prolific

[TightEnd]

this is really good

every squad and every player analysed

http://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2016/jun/01/euro-2016-the-complete-guide-to-every-squad-and-every-player-in-france

[dino1980]

Just realised my post above is in the wrong thread, should've gone in the general Euro 2016 thread. Feel free to move it mods. Thanks.

[bergeroo]

Don't think this is the right thread but what the hell!

I like the shout on Sterling to start vs Russia, gonna look at that now. I had a nice score on Rashford being in the squad, so I am happy about that.

I've gone Spain each way - which was also recommended at BE today.

Top scorer - matched some of your selections
Giroud likely to be the starting striker for the tournament favourites, seems like a good price to me.
Morata, likely to be starting striker for tournament third favourites
Gomez - seems likely to be the starter for tournament second favourites
Griezmann - feel like he should be joint fave in this market with Mueller. Price has come in a little but still feel like it is good

Some doubt about selection of the first three of these guys which translates to the price, I've backed all three. Even if they don't start, they are likely to come on in matches, maybe for some of the 'garbage minutes' in group games against softer opposition when the match is won. They are likely to get six matches each. I think Gomez will lead the line, with Mueller behind.

I've got each way bets on the four teams which are most likely to finish second place in groups A and C, which will then meet in the second round in the top (likely softer section) of the draw.
Poland, Switzerland
With smaller bet on Ukraine and v small bet on Romania.

Various other small bets on top scorers for various countries, biggest one on Shaqiri for Switz

[pleno1]

Not sure why Germany are so hotly tipped.

Defense looks weak, strikers look weak, midfield doesn't look great.

Missing Reus, Lahm retired, Scweinsteiger passed it.

Will probably oppose them in most games.

[Sportshead]

Really not so sure that Gomez will start for Germany Bergeroo , they play their last warm up game tomorrow so that may give more of a clue, he started in the loss to Slovakia but was heavily criticised
I think they will go with Gotze as a false 9

[dino1980]

this is really good

every squad and every player analysed

http://www.theguardian.com/football/ng-interactive/2016/jun/01/euro-2016-the-complete-guide-to-every-squad-and-every-player-in-france

Agreed. Just read this about Lewandowski

The Bayern striker is extremely careful with his diet and looks out for every nutritional detail. Everything he eats, he eats backwards – so if having three courses he starts with having dessert first, then the main course before finishing with a starter.

[DungBeetle]

I assume Lewandowski doesn't order the soufflé then.  Would be the hight of selfishness if you are waiting for soup of the day.

[Cavey007]

http://play.wincashlive.com/england-russia?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=cpm&utm_campaign=mnfdeppixellookalike-eng-rus

Have no idea what these guys are like. I'll be honest have never heard of them. 5 quid max. Winnings paid in 5 quid free bets. Doesn't seem to be any rollover requirements. If it loses get your fiver back.

[hhyftrftdr]

How do we expect France to line up? Not particularly interested in their defence, more their midfield and forwards. Do they play both Griezmann and Giroud? Is Payet a regular now? How far forward and how much freedom does Pogba get?

Got my eye on a few potential bets....

[hhyftrftdr]

Great article in The Guardian. Well worth a read. Sahin married his cousin, surprised he didn't fit in at Liverpool tbh.

Surprising to see how many ex City players will be present in France. Obvious ones like Boateng and Given, but plenty of more obscure ones like Fernades, Westwood and Chorluka that I'm sure had slipped off many people's radars.

Roll on wall to wall football from Friday.