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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 664733 times)
dakky
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« Reply #315 on: April 06, 2016, 12:38:45 AM »

Has anyone been watching Inside Obama's Whitehouse.

Formidable stuff, formidable man imo. Imagine what he could have done with the support of congress.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #316 on: April 06, 2016, 08:03:13 AM »

So Cruz has taken Wisconsin. A highly-educated, church-going State, where most Republicans describe themselves as conservatives, wasn't ever likely to support Trump. Cruz' lead increased in the last few days of the campaign, but he should thank Rubio for dropping out and averting the split in the conservative vote that we saw in earlier States. Wisconsin may ultimately be regarded as a turning-point by some if Cruz does well from here, but it is a State that he was expected to win. More important is his performance in the next few weeks. Trump is currently crushing in New York and Pennsylvania and there are four other North-East States coming up. We can expect plenty of Trump razzmatazz, though Cruz may find some opportunities to keep a lid on the damage though a difficult period for him.
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Teacake
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« Reply #317 on: April 06, 2016, 11:37:12 AM »

Sanders appears to have momentum but looks like he is too far back and has very little super delegate support, how does New York and California look in the Democrat contest? I know Sanders is from NY and Hilary served there for a number of years how does that dynamic play out?

Great updates btw.
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Teacake
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« Reply #318 on: April 06, 2016, 11:44:57 AM »

Has anyone been watching Inside Obama's Whitehouse.

Formidable stuff, formidable man imo. Imagine what he could have done with the support of congress.

Yeah it's been really interesting, I still have last nights to watch but I'm certainly more sympathetic towards Obama than I was before which I imagine the programme set out to do. The partisan stance from the Republicans throughout his tenure was something he just couldn't overcome with so many issues.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #319 on: April 06, 2016, 03:14:28 PM »

Sanders appears to have momentum but looks like he is too far back and has very little super delegate support, how does New York and California look in the Democrat contest? I know Sanders is from NY and Hilary served there for a number of years how does that dynamic play out?

I agree with what you say.

The Democrat race is getting interesting. Sanders not only survived March, when Clinton hoped to kill him off, but his win in Wisconsin means he has won seven of the last eight Primaries, mostly by large majority. His national share in polling isn’t that far off Clinton's and he has all the momentum. He says he is going all the way to the Convention and it looks like it could be a close-run race when they get there.

Wrong!

Of course, they would have liked to finish this earlier, but Hillary's team still has control. She didn’t waste time on a lost cause in Wisconsin, spending the last few days in New York.

Sanders has three big problems:

One is the Democratic National Committee, which is loaded with Clintonites and has been doing everything to hold him back. We have mentioned previously how they scheduled TV debates for times when viewing would be low, so any mishaps by the frontrunner would have less impact and how they withdrew Sanders’ access to the shared voter database.

The second problem is super-delegates, which we have discussed before as well. There are 714 of them - 21 Governors, 46 Senators, 193 House Representatives, 20 Distinguished Party Leaders (ex-Presidents and so on) and 434 members of the DNC (including every State’s Chair and Vice-Chair). They can vote for whoever they like. The Primaries generate 4,051 delegates who have to vote at the Convention according to the outcome of their State vote, so the requirement to win is 2,383 votes. In an unusual year like this, a maverick candidate can be suppressed, despite the popular vote. The Republicans don’t have super-delegates, but I bet they wish they did, rather than having to go through contortions to keep Trump out. 505 super-delegates have declared their allegiance so far, 473 for Clinton, 32 for Sanders. Of the ones we are familiar with, Bill Clinton and Bernie Sanders cancel each other out and the rest (Carter, Gore, Obama, Biden) are still uncommitted and will probably just support the winner. Sanders’ team has been putting pressure on super-delegates (who can change their minds right up til they vote in July) to turn on the basis of Sanders’ popular support and State wins. Good luck with that. So far, zero have been turned.

Sanders’ third problem is of his own making, in that he got off the mark too slowly. He could have made a huge impression if he had notched up the first few States but, to be frank, he didn’t put 100% effort into it. Firstly, he seemed not to believe himself that he actually had a chance of winning and was mainly interested in getting a wider audience for his views. Secondly, against all his advisors, he refused to attack Clinton on her weaknesses (emails, fees for Wall St speeches, Mid-East) as he doesn’t believe in that sort of negative politics and, thirdly, again against advice, he felt obliged to honour his Senate duties and was still spending three days a week there, even though no-one would have criticised him for not doing so (and the other Senators in the race weren’t doing the same). Personal appearances in their State seems to work better than anything else with the voters and a more focussed effort was needed. He has sharpened his attacks on Clinton, particularly on the bank speech fees, but has been trying to catch up on lost ground.

The Democrats have got Wyoming before New York, but it scarcely matters. NY is the key now. Clinton is definite to win and is hoping to put it to bed there with a big result. Sanders is from Brooklyn, but she is more of a New Yorker now. A bit like Cruz, Sanders is hoping his momentum will help him to show up well. Then it’s on to  the other North-East States.

I haven’t looked at betting markets, but I would expect Clinton to be at her highest odds for the nomination now and to reduce after New York, or even before.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #320 on: April 06, 2016, 03:47:44 PM »

Some other super-delegates people may know:

Clinton:
Walter Mondale, Howard Dean, Dick Gephardt, George Mitchell ( Good Friday Agreement), Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, Barbara Boxer, Andrew Cuomo.

Uncommitted:
Jerry Brown, Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren, Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Co-Chair of Hillary's 2008 campaign and current Chair of the DNC).
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MintTrav
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« Reply #321 on: April 06, 2016, 04:52:00 PM »

The Panama thing could put a spanner in Hillary's works, as it is clear that she supported the Panama Free Trade Deal, which Sanders opposed strongly. As The Independent says,  "For some Americans, Hillary Clinton is the embodiment of a global elite which benefits from tax avoidance schemes. Bernie Sanders, her opponent, is its antithesis."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-panama-papers-could-hand-bernie-sanders-the-keys-to-the-white-house-a6969481.html

Some think this could be the issue to drive Sanders forward, as he can clearly be seen to be on the side of the angels, while Hillary is the wicked witch, so the same might be inferred by the population about all the other times when he has pointed out the evils of banks, government, big business, super-rich individuals and so on.

I expect that, in the end, the public probably won't care about it enough for it to make a significant difference to the election.

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PokerBroker
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« Reply #322 on: April 06, 2016, 05:03:29 PM »

I just read no American's were implicated in these Panama Papers. 

I wonder were the leak initially came from. 
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Longines
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« Reply #323 on: April 06, 2016, 07:14:48 PM »

As an American why would you use Panama when Delaware has even more lax regulation?
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MintTrav
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« Reply #324 on: April 09, 2016, 01:48:41 PM »

Have you seen the statement Trump's campaign issued after losing Wisconsin?

"Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again. Lyin' Ted Cruz had the Governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him. Not only was he propelled by the anti-Trump Super PAC's spending countless millions of dollars on false advertising against Mr. Trump, but he was coordinating with his own Super PAC's (which is illegal) who totally control him. Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet--- he is a Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump. We have total confidence that Mr. Trump will go on to win in New York, where he holds a substantial lead in all the polls, and beyond. Mr. Trump is the only candidate who can secure the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton, or whomever is the Democratic nominee, in order to Make America Great Again."


The statement contains some truths, but it is written in a childish tone, recognisable as pure Trump. Although it comes from the campaign rather than him, it reads pretty much the way he speaks. I am surmising that it was dictated and issued with little or no editing. In this, it seems similar to Palin's statement, above, which also reads very much as she speaks. People usually write more formally than they speak, even those not over-concerned about language rules, so I find it interesting that these two, with their high profiles, are prepared to issue such unedited statements.

Of course, they are both loose cannons who could come out with a bizarre statement at any time. Worse, they have another similarity in that they have both turned up unprepared on the issues at times and got themselves into situations where they had to try to think it through while speaking, instead of taking the more sensible route of thinking through the options before-hand when the pressure is off.
 
Trump spends his nights tweeting opinions and insults, with no controls or filtering possible by his campaign team. In my view, it is his immaturity, rather than his views, that makes him unfit for office.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #325 on: April 10, 2016, 12:16:09 PM »

Bill Clinton woke up from his coma this week when Black Lives Matter protested his speech in Philadelphia. They objected to his 1994 crime bill which led to substantially reduced crime, but is also partly responsible for the increase in the black prison population. That the bill could have been better has been acknowledged by both Clintons, though she has gone further than him.

Every politician in the land is afraid of taking on BLM, but Bill is never going to stand by while anyone says that his wasn't the greatest Presidency ever. The Clintons are in an unusual situation, in that they are so close with the black leaders and voters that they believe they can challenge elements within them without losing support.

Bill is so good in this kind of situation:



There has been speculation that this will hurt Hillary's support and that Bill will be put back into the background. Remains to be seen if that is what happens.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2016, 12:46:49 PM by MintTrav » Logged
MintTrav
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« Reply #326 on: April 10, 2016, 03:11:45 PM »

Paul Ryan isn't running for President.

He has told you several times already that he isn't interested.

So why do you keep asking him?

Now he has had to put out this video this week to prove that he isn't interested.

Hopefully, this will finally convince you.

Now please leave him alone.

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Rexas
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« Reply #327 on: April 10, 2016, 03:45:16 PM »

Paul Ryan isn't running for President.

He has told you several times already that he isn't interested.

So why do you keep asking him?

Now he has had to put out this video this week to prove that he isn't interested.

Hopefully, this will finally convince you.

Now please leave him alone.



Well I'm convinced.
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humour is very much encouraged, however theres humour and theres not.
I disrepectfully agree with Matt Smiley
MintTrav
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« Reply #328 on: April 12, 2016, 12:08:33 AM »

The Onion will keep you up-to-date with what's really happening in the election.

I have picked out some recent headlines. The full stories are on the link below.


- Clinton Campaign Treasurer Crushed To Death After Stack Of Campaign Funds Topples Over

- Shimmering Immaculate Republican Candidate Appears Before GOP Officials

- Kasich Privately Worried He’ll Never Have Charisma Necessary To Incite Supporters To Violent Frenzy

- Clinton Campaign Airlifts 200 Crates Of Volunteers To Wisconsin Headquarters

- Mysterious Necrotic Skin Disease Continues To Eat Away At Baby’s Face Weeks After Being Kissed By Ted Cruz

- Hillary Clinton Pleasantly Surprised After Finding Old $20,000 Donation Check In Coat Pocket

- Exuberant Trump Rally Crowd Bats Syrian Refugee Child Around Arena Before Candidate Comes On Stage

- Confounded Pollsters Admit There No Way Of Predicting Mercurial Behaviors Of Beguiling Female Vote
 
- Poll: Ted Cruz Currently Leads Among Voters Disputing Boundaries Of Neighbor’s Yard

http://www.theonion.com/tag/election-2016
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MintTrav
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« Reply #329 on: April 12, 2016, 08:35:22 AM »

My favourite Onion article on the election:

ISIS Struggling To Narrow Down GOP Debate Sound Bites For New Recruitment Video

RUKBAN, SYRIA—Growing increasingly tired and frustrated as they pored through tens of hours of footage packed with usable material, members of the militant group ISIS informed reporters Friday that they’ve been struggling to narrow down which GOP debate sound bites to use in their new recruitment video. “We’ve spent days cutting down our video to feature only the most inflammatory anti-Muslim statements that will attract new soldiers of jihad, but it’s still over 40 minutes—no one’s gonna sit through something that long,” said ISIS spokesman Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, adding that his team had already pulled several long nighrs focused solely on finding the most egregious clips of Donald Trump dehumanizing Muslims before even beginning to catalogue statements from the rest of the GOP candidates. “After staring at the monitor for so long, you lose the ability to tell whether a clip of Ted Cruz effectively saying the U.S. is at war with Islam has the same level of impact as a clip of Donald Trump talking about entering every Muslim into a government database. It’s a real shame we’re going to leave so much great recruitment material on the cutting room floor, but we’re confident we’ll be able to use the extra footage to roll out a brand-new propaganda video every week for the foreseeable future.” Sources confirmed that ISIS members were later seen sighing, shaking their heads, and dejectedly muttering under their breaths upon learning that another GOP debate had just been held the previous night.
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