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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 315665 times)
MintTrav
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« Reply #3405 on: February 09, 2020, 12:20:32 AM »

Can anyone explain why Trump is 4/6 for re-election. Are all the Dem candidates terrible again? Has America actually become greater again behind the headlines?

Trump was 40% to be re-elected three months ago, but now he is favourite. I think there are a few reasons. One is that no-one has emerged as the obvious challenger and it is hard to predict who will eventually face off against him. Also, this may be the President's high-point. Apart from a temporary boost from the acquittal, this is the lull before the tough news starts coming in. We are told that this will be a rough year for the economy, for jobs and on Iran, so his approval rating could start heading South again soon. I'd say he is mispriced at this stage, and right now is probably the best value time to bet against him.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3406 on: February 09, 2020, 01:17:47 AM »

Buttigieg is adept at saying a lot of nice-sounding phrases without saying anything. He was attacked from all sides in last night's debate, and had no response other than bland buzzwords. Following the debate, a video was released showing how his campaign has added applause and laughter to footage of him. This probably isn't the only time this has happened, but this has got a wide viewing on both left and right-wing outlets.

https://twitter.com/CPDAction/status/1225673303953526784

https://twitter.com/CPDAction/status/1225672587843231744


And today, Biden released a devastating advert, which contrasted Pete's inexperience with Joe's deep background, and also planted a racism seed.



The candidate with no known policies has had a fairly easy ride so far. Now that the others are going for him, it will be interesting to see if his campaign crumbles as his lack of substance is exposed to the public. He'll probably do alright in New Hampshire, but it will get much harder for him after that.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3407 on: February 09, 2020, 01:38:34 AM »

This site has put together the "funniest" moments from this debate and the previous two. You need a liberal view of funny, but it's watchable.

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MintTrav
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« Reply #3408 on: February 09, 2020, 02:05:29 AM »

Trump had a mini-purge yesterday, sacking Gordon Sondland as United States Ambassador to the European Union, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman as National Security Council Director for European Affairs, and Lieutenant Colonel Yevgeny Vindman as Legal Advisor to the National Security Council. The Vindmans are twins and both were escorted (separately) from the White House.

Sondland and Alexander testified against Tump at the impeachment hearing, Alexander calling Trump's call "improper". Yevgeny had no involvement with the hearings, but is believed to be the one who released John Bolton's manuscript to the press.

Joe took advantage for a powerful moment in the debate. Would have been even better if he hadn't stumbled over his words.

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MintTrav
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« Reply #3409 on: February 10, 2020, 12:36:00 AM »

Joe's charm offensive with the electorate continues (emphasis on offensive).

"You're a lying dog-faced pony soldier." 

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MintTrav
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« Reply #3410 on: February 11, 2020, 11:16:42 PM »

Candidate who Wasn’t on Ballot Paper and Didn’t Canvas Wins by Landslide!

First votes in the New Hampshire Primary took place at midnight and there were shocks in store. First declaration came from the critical vote at Dixville Notch, and the outcome was a landslide for Bloomberg. Final result:
Mike Bloomberg 2
Bernie Sanders 1
Pete Buttigieg 1

Bloomberg isn't even on NH ballot papers and didn't campaign there but, in the US, you can write in the names of people who aren’t on the ballot paper and they are counted. So Round One to Bloomberg - and it didn’t end there. The Republican Party is also voting and the result of the GOP Primary was:
Mike Bloomberg 1
Bill Weld 0
Donald Trump 0

It's an incredible outcome as the only Republican voter to turn up wrote in Bloomberg as well to make him the Dixville Nox choice of both parties, amassing 50% of the vote for one party and 100% of the other! Write-ins have won numerous elections in the past, but I don’t know if this is this first time that a candidate has won both parties’ Primaries at the same time. If this pattern continues, Bloomberg will sweep a State he has completely ignored.

 Click to see full-size image.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3411 on: February 11, 2020, 11:50:20 PM »

Three precincts in total voted at midnight. Other results:

Millsfield:
Klobuchar 2
Sanders 1
Buttigieg 1
Biden 1

Hart's Location
Klobuchar 6
Warren 4
Yang 3
Sanders 2
Biden 1
Gabbard 1
Steyer 1

Adding in Dixville Notch shows Amy with a resounding lead:
Klobuchar 8
Warren 4
Sanders 4
Yang 3
Buttigieg 2
Biden 2
Bloomberg 2
Gabbard 1
Steyer 1

Amy Klobuchar excelled in Friday's debate and could exceed expectations. Almost half of voters are saying that they made their decision in the last few days, much higher than in previous elections. It has been expected that Sanders will take NH with ease, followed by Buttigieg, but watch Klobuchar - this could be the point where she shoots up the field.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3412 on: February 12, 2020, 01:36:25 AM »

We are at such a weird point in the race. With Biden apparently going backwards, but still ahead, this thing could go in many directions. Some previous front-runners at this stage have gone completely down and out within a couple of months, and it could happen again. So who is favourite now to get the nomination? That has to be Sanders - going strong in most places. As for the rest:

Biden still has a lead but is on the slide. In particular, his Black support is slipping and his firewall of South Carolina is under attack. These early White States may be misleading, in that he may still do much better later. He isn't even in New Hampshire tonight, having left for South Carolina while the NH voting was still in progress. Joe's support has been much more resilient than some expected, partly because there is widespread affection for him. He doesn’t seem as sharp as in the past, but he’s clearly still very effective. New Hampshire will be a repeat of Iowa but he’ll do well in Nevada. South Carolina is where he’s expected to smash the field. The question is whether that will be enough to cancel the earlier 90%+ White States. One threat is Tom Steyer, who has built a lot of support in SC, and is polling strongly in second place. Biden should win, but Steyer could cut him back. These races are about momentum rather than actual numbers, so he might bounce back after that but, if Nevada and South Carolina aren’t big enough, funding could suddenly dry up.

Bloomberg has spent $350m to date and has 2,000 staff carpet-bombing the future States. It's hard to know where he stands in the race, but he is consistently polling 3rd now and is still on the rise. He could win this. The champion of 'stop-and-frisk' is even getting strong support from Black voters, who are more concerned with finding someone to beat Trump than anything else, even if it means holding their noses and voting for Bloomberg. He has appeared to be a fringe figure so far, but he is a major player in this, and we will see his presence everywhere in a month’s time. If Joe starts dropping badly, the party needs a stable centrist to take over. It won't be Buttigieg but it could be Mike. It could also be Amy Klobuchar, who has been solid throughout and performed really well in the latest debate.

Warren has recovered from recent errors, but has lost ground. It's not looking good at this stage but, apart from Bloomberg, she has the most staff working ahead in later States, so may come back stronger than her underwhelming start.

Andrew Yang's campaign is on the point of collapse. 100 staffers were laid off after Iowa and the campaign isn't expecting to survive beyond New Hampshire.

Buttigieg has done very well in the States that suit him but I expect him to go backwards from now on. 4% with Black voters doesn't get you elected.

Klobuchar is my dark horse tip. Her solid support is not only due to her extensive record of being the Senator who has got the most legislation through and her debate performance, but also partly due to being seen as 'normal' and as having a sense of humour. Her weakness is with Black voters. Buttigieg has 4%, but Klobuchar is at 0% and hasn't even seemed to be trying.

A month ago it seemed we had a two-way contest between Biden and Sanders. I can't see Buttigieg maintaining his position, so I'd say we're now looking at a three-way contest between Sanders, Bloomberg and Klobuchar, though we can't write off Biden until South Carolina and Super Tuesday are done. I still can’t believe they let Kamala Harris go, cos she surely would have been the best option to pick it up. While the party was happy with its panel of contenders a while ago, none of them are looking stellar right now and bringing in someone else is not impossible. It was widely reported that John Kerry was overheard last week discussing what he would have to do to run, including resigning from the Board of Bank of America. He took to Twitter to deny that he's interested (in fruity terms) - so we can't discount him! There is another name that is still mentioned as a possibility to be dropped in - Hillary. Don't laugh - if Joe drops out, there is a vacancy. All-in-all, I'm liking Amy Klobuchar.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 01:55:30 AM by MintTrav » Logged
Skippy
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« Reply #3413 on: February 13, 2020, 10:01:52 AM »

Yang is dunzo, in case you haven't heard:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/11/politics/andrew-yang-ends-2020-presidential-campaign/index.html
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bookiebasher
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« Reply #3414 on: February 13, 2020, 11:08:47 AM »

Not convinced Bernie is going to win and to me he is a lay rather than back at 6-4.

It's a messy race which looks like its going to go through to the convention in July.

15% will be Super delegates , of which , very few will vote for Bernie.

Loads of horse trading to be done and Bernies best chance is to do a deal with Warren
obviously.

Even then , it looks like he is still short of 50%.

After a couple of moderates have dropped out , Biden and Pete possibly or Biden and Amy
then I can see where Bloomberg and either Pete or Amy combine to get enough votes.

His money will certainly have a big influence.

On the exchange I see Warren has been matched at 1000 and someone wanted to lay
her at 200 for over £200 this morning.

I know I have rose tinted spectacles on with her but at 200 I had to nibble  
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 11:22:31 AM by bookiebasher » Logged
bergeroo
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« Reply #3415 on: February 14, 2020, 06:20:30 PM »

Bernie 2.75
Bloomberg 3.0
Buttigeg 9.0
Biden 13.0
Clinton(!!) 23.0
Kloubuchar 26.0
Warren 81.0 - wow
Michelle Obama! 101,0

I have a Bloomberg ticket at 25/1. Considering if now is the time to lay it off before people realise he is a billionaire Republic douchebag. Although perhaps that isn't a problem?
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Marky147
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« Reply #3416 on: February 14, 2020, 06:47:10 PM »

Bernie 2.75
Bloomberg 3.0
Buttigeg 9.0
Biden 13.0
Clinton(!!) 23.0
Kloubuchar 26.0
Warren 81.0 - wow
Michelle Obama! 101,0

I have a Bloomberg ticket at 25/1. Considering if now is the time to lay it off before people realise he is a billionaire Republic douchebag. Although perhaps that isn't a problem?

I'd prob take the freeroll.

I had a freebet I used on Klobuchar, so will owe MintTrav dinner if it comes in Smiley
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bookiebasher
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« Reply #3417 on: February 14, 2020, 11:31:29 PM »

When he gets to the debate stage , Warren and Bernie going to go after him big style.

Not sure how he will handle it . The little I have seen of him makes me think he will struggle
against the pros.

Be interesting to see if he does stand on a box or wear 👠.

Asking whether to lay off , don’t look at me for advice 🙈

Could have cleared over 30k on Elizabeth but believed in her , still do.

At least she gave me liquidity to back a few others.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3418 on: February 15, 2020, 06:30:46 PM »



MT's girl on Bill Maher last night.
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mondatoo
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« Reply #3419 on: February 16, 2020, 02:42:24 AM »

Just wanted to echo the appreciation to MintTrav (as well as others also) for all the updates, following with interest and appreciate the efforts, cheers.
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