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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 664608 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #3885 on: June 15, 2020, 07:20:38 PM »

Moved to other thread.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2020, 07:23:25 PM by Marky147 » Logged

MintTrav
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« Reply #3886 on: June 17, 2020, 01:33:25 PM »



The US Supreme Court is quite different to ours, as you may know. The Justices are nominated by Presidents, and tend to decide cases according to their political views, which are well known before they're appointed. Appointing the Justices is an extremely important element of a President's tenure. As with all Supreme Courts, their decisions have extensive effects on the nation for decades or even centuries afterwards. The Court currently consists of four liberals and five conservatives, and their decisions usually follow that pattern, with many 5-4 outcomes, though not always. Despite their leanings, they are all top-level lawyers, and do sometimes come in with non-partisan votes.

They are set out above in line with their general left-right perception. Breyer and Kagan are pretty liberal, but Sotomayor and Ginsberg are the most liberal by a distance. Roberts (the Chief Justice) is the closest on either side to being a centrist, with Thomas far to the right of everyone, with Alito and Gorsuch somewhere in between, conservative but not as hardline as Thomas. Kavanaugh is harder to place - some have said he is another Roberts, while some have him close to Thomas, and some say he is halfway between them.

They were all appointed near the start of the relevant President's term - Ginsburg and Breyer by Clinton; Thomas, Roberts and Alito by GW Bush; Sotomayor and Kagan by Obama; Kavanaugh and Gorsuch by Trump - perhaps reflecting their predecessors hanging on til a President of their flavour came in. The next appointment will probably be to replace Ginsburg, who is 87 and has had some health issues. Breyer is 81, but the rest are considerably younger and should be there for a long time. If Trump gets in again, Ginsburg might not be able to hang around til she is almost 92.

This week, after months of deliberation, they have surprised by coming in with some liberal decisions.

First, they ruled by six to three that the Civil Rights Act, which outlaws discrimination based on sex, also applies to cases where an employee is fired based on their sexual orientation or gender identity. Roberts and Trump-appointee Gorsuch sided with the Libs and Gorsuch wrote the majority text. In the dissenting opinion, Alito somehow concluded that this could lead to anti-discrimination protections for rapists.

In a blow to the Administration, they declined to hear a case of whether local authorities can decline to co-operate with federal bodies, which had been brought because California passed local laws limiting co-operation with immigration authorities. By them refusing to hear the case, California is free to continue impeding ICE. Thomas and Alito dissented, but Roberts, Kavanaugh and Gorsuch voted against Trump. It takes four votes to agree to hear a case, and five to make a decision once it has been heard.

They declined to hear ten Second Amendment cases which sought to extend gun-owners' rights, objecting to a variety of restrictions in particular States. Alito, Gorsuch and Thomas disagreed, but Kavanaugh sided with the liberals.

They also declined to hear eight cases on reducing qualified immunity, which protects government employees, including police and prison staff, from being sued (not for murder or proper crimes, but for things they do in their 'normal' activity). Surprisingly, Thomas, the most conservative, was the only dissenter in an 8-1 vote, though this has long been a hobby-horse of his. The Court's lack of interest in this essentially means that police can continue to bash people about with little comeback.

They granted a stay of execution for the murderer that justice-reform activist Kim Kardashian has been lobbying for. This happened just one hour before the execution was due, on the strange basis that his religious rights were violated by Texas' policy barring chaplains from being with inmates at execution. This means that this issue will go back to lower courts to examine and will, no doubt, take years to resolve, giving more time for the whole case to be challenged.

The Supreme Court has a history of activism. Certainly, when the Court has had a liberal majority, it has moved American society in a progressive direction, and the same is true, probably to a lesser extent, of conservative majorities. The current Court has handed down several conservative rulings, but the failure of the conservatives to hang together, while the liberals have been rock-solid, must be worrying for the White House and many in the country.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3887 on: June 17, 2020, 02:18:51 PM »

Read this as you posted, but left the reply open in another window Cheesy

Super interesting, as always.

Timeline for cheeto to start blustering about them?
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3888 on: June 17, 2020, 05:01:16 PM »

Timeline for cheeto to start blustering about them?

Some sections of his support are livid. They backed him, even though a lot of them didn't like him, because they thought he would deliver certain things. One of those was to install SC Justices who would do the right thing. Now that his appointees have wobbled, many right-wingers are blaming him. The GOP Party isn't too bad - a lot of them agree with the gay rights decision, for example, and SC decisions avoid the issue being played out in Congress, which could cause them a lot of problems. A lot of voters and lobby groups aren't so content about it. Donald accepted that one straight away. I suspect he is in favour of it - he has been quite liberal of such issues in the past.

Roberts, who voted against gay marriage, was the main surprise. Gorsuch wasn't really, in that he has indicated such beliefs in the past. He has made it clear that he can operate beyond the liberal/conservative blocs and sees himself mainly as a textualist. This was the mantra of Scalia, the previous Chief Justice, and means sticking exactly to the words of the law or Constitution, and not giving any consideration to the context of the times when it was enacted, the debates on it, trying to read into the minds of what the legislators actually meant, or the repercussions of the decision.

We can see that Alito does take account of repercussions. He didn't hold back in his dissent: "The court's opinion is like a pirate ship. It sails under a textualist flag, but what it actually represents is a theory of statutory interpretation that Justice Scalia excoriated - the theory that Courts should 'update' old statutes so that they better reflect the current values of society." He is basically accusing them of legislating. I suspect that the grass roots would agree, but might express it differently.

These decisions, though, were very specific - they don't mean that the Court has taken a turn to the left. There are several big decisions coming up in the next couple of months and it's likely that conservatives will be happy with the outcomes of those.

Saagar had a very interesting take on it:

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Marky147
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« Reply #3889 on: June 17, 2020, 05:39:26 PM »

So they've pissed off the church mob, and that might have implications down the line in the elections.

Donald doesn't really care, but Pence no doubt be having some tantrums?

Would those aggrieved be looking to get Pence into his spot, by any means necessary?


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Marky147
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« Reply #3890 on: June 17, 2020, 07:50:46 PM »

Biden just went to town on Donald there, though I imagine they'll be making a clip of his 'contact/ract tracing' blip.

Pretty coherent on the most part, though. For a sleepy one, obv Smiley
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3891 on: June 18, 2020, 01:35:06 AM »

Looks like Bolton's book is delivering as promised. Some of the revelations might have been helpful at the impeachment trial.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/17/john-bolton-book-trump-china-accusations-dictators




There is another one due out in early August by Donald's niece, to coincide with the GOP Convention, whatever the format of that will be. It is reported that he is exploring whether he can sue her to prevent publication.

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Marky147
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« Reply #3892 on: June 18, 2020, 01:54:55 PM »

Oh my days, he's going to be losing the plot.
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bookiebasher
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« Reply #3893 on: June 18, 2020, 02:15:39 PM »

Oh my days, he's going to be losing the plot.

He lost it many years ago  Wink
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Marky147
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« Reply #3894 on: June 18, 2020, 02:58:17 PM »

Oh my days, he's going to be losing the plot.

He lost it many years ago  Wink

I didn't think you'd be that slow with the tap in Grin
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MintTrav
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« Reply #3895 on: June 19, 2020, 02:44:22 AM »

There's a right scrap going on within the Democrats between the Progressives and the Moderates for New York’s 16th Congressional District, mainly consisting of The Bronx. Congressman Eliot Engel, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has represented the District for ever, but he is in the fight of his life to survive. He is facing three challengers for the nomination, with most attention on school principal Jamaal Bowman.



The Justice Democrats group, which succeeded in propelling Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to victory in the next-door District, dislodging a long-time senior Dem, is working to do the same for Bowman, along with the Working Families Party. Together, the two groups have allocated half a million dollars towards the election of Bowman, who has the support of Bernie Sanders and AOC and has been endorsed by Elizabeth Warren, Ayanna Pressley and actor-turned-politician Cynthia Nixon.

On the other side, Basil has been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, John Lewis, House Majority Whip James Clyburn and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries and has just received the biggest endorsement of all, with Hillary Clinton bestowing her first endorsement of this round on him. This seems quite a foreign process to us, but endorsements really are a big deal in the US.

Engel slipped up badly at a gathering after the George Floyd episode. He wanted to speak, as he is the local Congressman and he has this election coming up next week, and explained why to the Dems' District President. Unfortunately, it didn't come out well, and sounded like he didn't care about the protests or the looting. As might be imagined, his opponents have made a huge fuss about Groucho supposedly admitting not caring.


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Marky147
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« Reply #3896 on: June 19, 2020, 03:12:14 AM »

Saw that she had endorsed someone, but it was mentioned with reference to it being bad luck, lol.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3897 on: June 21, 2020, 12:54:19 AM »

Pence really is all in.

Unreal he can keep a straight face up there, lol.

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Marky147
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« Reply #3898 on: June 21, 2020, 03:05:13 AM »



Cheesy

Boy does he manage to last it out, though. That must have been 2 hours, even if I imagine the fact checkers will have fun with it.
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Marky147
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« Reply #3899 on: June 22, 2020, 09:20:07 PM »



The crowds Smiley
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