The Next President of the United States

[Doobs]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/30/build-your-own-us-election-result-plot-a-win-for-biden-or-trump

I have messed around with this, and it really seems like Biden could win by just 1 or 2 electoral college votes.  With Trump in charge, that must be just about the worst time for that to happen?

[Longy]

and it may be Biden + Republican Senate? so scope to do much limited?

Every newscast, every poll, virtually every respectable pundit told us American voters had collectively turned heavily against Trump. That manifestly wasn't true. In fact without COVID Trump would have won handily?

The US commentariat seems to be unrepresentative of large swatches of the country? suppose its the same here

It is clearly a big problem here and in the US. I think the increasing education gap is the big issue here, by the media’s nature you are going to be highly educated to get your foot in the door and the heavy consumers of said media (not including social media) is educated. It is a massive echo chamber, while the populist governments around the world have been a lot better at getting to the non university educated masses.

The polling does have me more confused, it clearly has missed badly in the battleground states and that whole industry is going to have to look at its methodology.

[Longy]

So if Biden takes Wisconsin where it is reported he is now ahead with the absentees and very Dem cities being counted, , he needs one of North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan or Pennsylvania for the presidency? Or have I got my maths wrong?

Nevada and Arizona are not Biden locks in my opinion. The rest adds up and I think Michigan is the most likely candidate for Biden.

[KarmaDope]

Biden now at 1.35 on BF. It was 3.01 at 8am!

[KarmaDope]

So if Biden takes Wisconsin where it is reported he is now ahead with the absentees and very Dem cities being counted, , he needs one of North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan or Pennsylvania for the presidency? Or have I got my maths wrong?

Nevada and Arizona are not Biden locks in my opinion. The rest adds up and I think Michigan is the most likely candidate for Biden.

Nevada is probably more likely than it looks right now. All in person voting is counted - they're just counting mail in's now and they normally favour Biden/Dems.

[Cf]

Biden now at 1.35 on BF. It was 3.01 at 8am!

It was 4.5 at 3am or so.

[Chompy]

1.26 now.

I know eff all about politics and even less about Biden but this can only be a pleasing result.

[MintTrav]

At no point in the night was Trump the favourite, as in more likely to win. Those bookies being quoted don’t know what they’re doing.

Biden is still a moderate favourite, as he has been throughout. Wisconsin should be in the bag soon and there are favourable signs in Penn.

[nirvana]

1.26 now.

I know eff all about politics and even less about Biden but this can only be a pleasing result.

Gonna be so dull when Donald leaves the stage

[Doobs]

At no point in the night was Trump the favourite, as in more likely to win. Those bookies being quoted don’t know what they’re doing.

Biden is still a moderate favourite, as he has been throughout. Wisconsin should be in the bag soon and there are favourable signs in Penn.

It is Betfair leading the bookies not the other way round.  A bookie who didn't follow betfair here wouldn't know what they were doing not the other way round?  People like me would be just hoovering up free money.

[MintTrav]

At no point in the night was Trump the favourite, as in more likely to win. Those bookies being quoted don’t know what they’re doing.

Biden is still a moderate favourite, as he has been throughout. Wisconsin should be in the bag soon and there are favourable signs in Penn.

It is Betfair leading the bookies not the other way round.  A bookie who didn't follow betfair here wouldn't know what they were doing not the other way round?  People like me would be just hoovering up free money.

Betfair/bookies whatever. I don’t really know how betting works but whoever has been setting those odds hasn’t a clue, so I agree there were easy opportunities for wins.

[RED-DOG]

1.26 now.

I know eff all about politics and even less about Biden but this can only be a pleasing result.

Gonna be so dull when Donald leaves the stage

Anarchist!

[MintTrav]

1.26 now.

I know eff all about politics and even less about Biden but this can only be a pleasing result.

Gonna be so dull when Donald leaves the stage

Anarchist!

It’s true though. He’s given us so much entertainment and so much to talk about. I read an article by a White House reporter from Bush Snr’s time who said she used to go there every morning and hang around hoping something would happen. Sometimes the highlight was George having a bad golf practice. Donald has given us crazy stories twenty times a day from Day 1 right through. In some ways I wish he’d win so it carries on.

[Doobs]

At no point in the night was Trump the favourite, as in more likely to win. Those bookies being quoted don’t know what they’re doing.

Biden is still a moderate favourite, as he has been throughout. Wisconsin should be in the bag soon and there are favourable signs in Penn.

It is Betfair leading the bookies not the other way round.  A bookie who didn't follow betfair here wouldn't know what they were doing not the other way round?  People like me would be just hoovering up free money.

Betfair/bookies whatever. I don’t really know how betting works but whoever has been setting those odds hasn’t a clue, so I agree there were easy opportunities for wins.

It is just a reflection of a really tight race in the swing states.  When it is so close that the result is going to come down to one or two states, a little bit of voting news can swing the market massively.

I think it is a bit much saying people don't have a clue, I thought 1.6 or so Biden was good value, you thought it was much more likely Biden would win.  We all get stuff wrong, but it doesn't mean we have no clue.

[RED-DOG]

1.26 now.

I know eff all about politics and even less about Biden but this can only be a pleasing result.

Gonna be so dull when Donald leaves the stage

Anarchist!

It’s true though. He’s given us so much entertainment and so much to talk about. I read an article by a White House reporter from Bush Snr’s time who said she used to go there every morning and hang around hoping something would happen. Sometimes the highlight was George having a bad golf practice. Donald has given us crazy stories twenty times a day from Day 1 right through. In some ways I wish he’d win so it carries on.

I would agree with you if it didn't matter so much but I truly believe that the Trump presidency has already cost countless lives. Just imagine how callously arrogant he will be if he is "vindicated" and gets a second term.