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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 266062 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #4320 on: June 12, 2021, 09:14:30 AM »

Lots of discussion of the new Delta variant.

Firstly news from India. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403561579577151498

and here's the headline: [Madhya Pradesh] saw twice its usual (2018-19 average) deaths in April 2021, and *five times* the usual in May 2021

I also saw one the other day suggesting mortality was 2.5x the highest ever previous level in one of the biggest cities.  India is a much younger country overall than any in Europe.

I don't think there should be any doubt how damaging this variant be if a health service is overwhelmed and the population aren't well vaccinated.



Good thread from Stuart McDonald to Jeremy Vine on why he thinks we should delay

https://mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1402912591077384192
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« Reply #4321 on: June 12, 2021, 09:21:37 AM »

Lots of discussion of the new Delta variant.

Firstly news from India. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403561579577151498

and here's the headline: [Madhya Pradesh] saw twice its usual (2018-19 average) deaths in April 2021, and *five times* the usual in May 2021

I also saw one the other day suggesting mortality was 2.5x the highest ever previous level in one of the biggest cities.  India is a much younger country overall than any in Europe.

I don't think there should be any doubt how damaging this variant be if a health service is overwhelmed and the population aren't well vaccinated.



Good thread from Stuart McDonald to Jeremy Vine on why he thinks we should delay

https://mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1402912591077384192


and Tim Spector has been on the don't delay side recently.

https://mobile.twitter.com/timspector/status/1403391647807909896

New cases still increasing rapidly at 13k per day at rates and R of 1.4 seen in feb and last September- but driven by Scotland and North west and the under 30s . So far no big change in over 60s with full vaccination- so could have been much worse. Thx for logging !

Meanwhile Ivor has been tweeting misleading charts showing seasonality and "triggering".  Winter in fecking May again Ivor?

And please ignore comparisons of Indian mortality vs other countries that rely on official Covid deaths.  It is clear the official Indian Covid death rate is massively underreported.



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« Reply #4322 on: June 12, 2021, 01:55:07 PM »

Just for you Marky, as I know you are a big indie sage fan.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403603535116357634

The dumb thing is that we have to estimate off not enough data whatever we decide to do on Monday.   James Ward clearly has a better idea than most how to do this, and look at all the caveats he puts in his thread? 

Presumably she isn't going to spout off on TV after seeing the same small amounts of data he has to look at?  Oh. 
 
To be fair, anybody who starts a thread with "with all due respect" is going to make me grumpy. 

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« Reply #4323 on: June 14, 2021, 02:42:31 PM »

Just for you Marky, as I know you are a big indie sage fan.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403603535116357634

The dumb thing is that we have to estimate off not enough data whatever we decide to do on Monday.   James Ward clearly has a better idea than most how to do this, and look at all the caveats he puts in his thread? 

Presumably she isn't going to spout off on TV after seeing the same small amounts of data he has to look at?  Oh. 
 
To be fair, anybody who starts a thread with "with all due respect" is going to make me grumpy. 


She's a twat.
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« Reply #4324 on: June 14, 2021, 04:28:30 PM »

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1404331303651135488

Interesting read, but not great news for the 'flu bro' gang.
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« Reply #4325 on: June 14, 2021, 07:04:54 PM »

In a good old Hopkin flip flop I probably agree with delaying the full unlocking....

But surely the graphs used to justify it today are again utter alarmist garbage?

How can the model it so poorly?
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« Reply #4326 on: June 14, 2021, 07:12:25 PM »

In a good old Hopkin flip flop I probably agree with delaying the full unlocking....

But surely the graphs used to justify it today are again utter alarmist garbage?

How can the model it so poorly?


Think they were using slightly out of date graphs by the looks of it?

Clusterfuck, same as always.
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« Reply #4327 on: June 14, 2021, 08:13:07 PM »

In a good old Hopkin flip flop I probably agree with delaying the full unlocking....

But surely the graphs used to justify it today are again utter alarmist garbage?

How can the model it so poorly?

I'm surprised exponential didn't get it's own rank like Captain Hindsight. Have to say I found it to be Major Bollocks in philosophy and Private Piss Poor Presentationally
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« Reply #4328 on: June 14, 2021, 08:48:14 PM »

In a good old Hopkin flip flop I probably agree with delaying the full unlocking....

But surely the graphs used to justify it today are again utter alarmist garbage?

How can the model it so poorly?

I'm surprised exponential didn't get it's own rank like Captain Hindsight. Have to say I found it to be Major Bollocks in philosophy and Private Piss Poor Presentationally


You getting the steel toe caps on, mate?

Grin
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« Reply #4329 on: June 14, 2021, 09:30:17 PM »

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1404331303651135488

Interesting read, but not great news for the 'flu bro' gang.

Is that the right link?  Quite amusing though.  Stuatt McDonald even managed a swipe at Nick Hudson too.

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1404400729884958723

I suppose every profession has a small numbers with unorthodox views. Sadly it seems we are no exception.


This one amused me the other day; Ivor has a case of mistaken identity

https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1402221040194015235


 Click to see full-size image.




 Click to see full-size image.



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« Reply #4330 on: June 14, 2021, 09:38:12 PM »

In a good old Hopkin flip flop I probably agree with delaying the full unlocking....

But surely the graphs used to justify it today are again utter alarmist garbage?

How can the model it so poorly?


Think they were using slightly out of date graphs by the looks of it?

Clusterfuck, same as always.


I didn't see it, but am not massively convinced.  I can see why they are doing it, as young people with Covid can last longer in hospital than old people, even if they don't die nearly as much; and having a large group of people blocking ICUs is an issue even if they die less than the usual patients.  I keep meaning to have a proper look, but it is Ascot tomorrow, and priorities... 

I did see Johnson make some statement about it definitely not been longer than 4 weeks, which struck me as odd.  We are extending because of the uncertainty, so how can you be confident 4 weeks resolves it.  You are either uncertain or certain.  I am pretty uncertain of the path FWIW.
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« Reply #4331 on: June 14, 2021, 09:45:34 PM »

Just for you Marky, as I know you are a big indie sage fan.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1403603535116357634

The dumb thing is that we have to estimate off not enough data whatever we decide to do on Monday.   James Ward clearly has a better idea than most how to do this, and look at all the caveats he puts in his thread? 

Presumably she isn't going to spout off on TV after seeing the same small amounts of data he has to look at?  Oh. 
 
To be fair, anybody who starts a thread with "with all due respect" is going to make me grumpy. 


She's a twat.

and an update on this.

James Ward said this, which lead to the with due respect nonsense The VE vs. hospitalisation and death appears robust to different assumptions of exposure risk, and implies that the vaccines are maintaining good protection (~80%) after 1 dose, and very strong protection {>95%) after 2 doses.   

Today PHE published their estimates

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1404494080244162562

Here’s the key table from
@PHE_uk
 new report on vaccine efficacy against hospitalisation with Delta variant:

After 1 dose
• Pfizer: 94% effective
• AstraZeneca: 71% effective

After 2 doses
• Pfizer: 96%
• AstraZeneca: 92%


So given that James Ward was around the average of the two differemt vaccines, then his estimates were pretty good. 

Getting adults double vaccinated is obviously going to help massively, but we aren't doing that in 4 weeks...

 
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« Reply #4332 on: June 14, 2021, 10:20:17 PM »

...
Getting adults double vaccinated is obviously going to help massively, but we aren't doing that in 4 weeks...

There are about 50 million adults in the UK, so 2 shots each is about 100 million shots.

We currently have provided about 72 million.

19th July is 35 days away, if we can average half a million shots a day that would give a total of about 89 million shots

And obviously that will be split in some unknown way between partially and fully vaccinated, and is contingent on maintaining that average.

But maybe the idea is that it won't be totally completed but the remaining 10 million-ish shots will be to the least vulnerable adults so it will be "close enough"?
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Marky147
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« Reply #4333 on: June 14, 2021, 10:40:43 PM »

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1404331303651135488

Interesting read, but not great news for the 'flu bro' gang.

Is that the right link?  Quite amusing though.  Stuatt McDonald even managed a swipe at Nick Hudson too.

Yeah was the thread, and it linked to Roussow's analysis of global excess deaths being ~10million.

Was just too lazy to link each tweet in the thread that was good... Was at my best mate's birthday BBQ yesterday, and she plied me with too much Champagne, Wine & Gin Cheesy

I saw that Snoweron thread as well, apart from Ivor's tweets, as he blocked me when I took the piss out of him.
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« Reply #4334 on: June 14, 2021, 10:45:33 PM »

...
Getting adults double vaccinated is obviously going to help massively, but we aren't doing that in 4 weeks...

There are about 50 million adults in the UK, so 2 shots each is about 100 million shots.

We currently have provided about 72 million.

19th July is 35 days away, if we can average half a million shots a day that would give a total of about 89 million shots

And obviously that will be split in some unknown way between partially and fully vaccinated, and is contingent on maintaining that average.

But maybe the idea is that it won't be totally completed but the remaining 10 million-ish shots will be to the least vulnerable adults so it will be "close enough"?

There are 2 or 3 weeks to get full protection, and I think we have supply issues if we aren't going to be using AZ for 1st vaccines.  We'll definitely get closer ito all adults vaccinated in 4/5 weeks, and we may get nearly every adult who is willing.  

I don't need much persuading, as I am not convinced we even need an extra 4 weeks (I said so earlier, but it probably wasn't obvious if you had only seen the one post).  I can see why they want to be more cautious, as removing restrictions then reimposing them looks worse than postponing.  

The lack of herd immunity in secondary schools iis my current worry, and that is something that feels unresolved whatever happens in the next month.

 
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