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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 257771 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #4335 on: June 14, 2021, 10:45:41 PM »

In a good old Hopkin flip flop I probably agree with delaying the full unlocking....

But surely the graphs used to justify it today are again utter alarmist garbage?

How can the model it so poorly?


Think they were using slightly out of date graphs by the looks of it?

Clusterfuck, same as always.


I didn't see it, but am not massively convinced.  I can see why they are doing it, as young people with Covid can last longer in hospital than old people, even if they don't die nearly as much; and having a large group of people blocking ICUs is an issue even if they die less than the usual patients.  I keep meaning to have a proper look, but it is Ascot tomorrow, and priorities... 

I did see Johnson make some statement about it definitely not been longer than 4 weeks, which struck me as odd.  We are extending because of the uncertainty, so how can you be confident 4 weeks resolves it.  You are either uncertain or certain.  I am pretty uncertain of the path FWIW.

I think that's because we know he doesn't ever want to lockdown, and maybe has thrown his toys out this time.

One more, and then it's see what transpires.
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Marky147
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« Reply #4336 on: June 14, 2021, 11:14:02 PM »

Pretty good summary from Mr Spector.

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Doobs
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« Reply #4337 on: June 16, 2021, 01:53:33 PM »


Wednesday again, and overall quite good news.

I mentioned before that deaths data was so small that it is hard to pick up a trend from it.  I think that big drop a couple of weeks ago was a bit of an outlier, as deaths didn't increase at all over the last week (40 both weeks in England).  It may be a bit higher when this week's data comes through, but there is still no real sign of deaths increasing significantly.

Hospitalisations are much the same story, they have held pretty steady at about 125 new ones each day.   To put that into context, even at the lowest point after wave 2,  they only dropped by a tiny amount below 100 on the 7 day average.

Cases are where the worry is.  We are now getting about 6,000 a day, and it probably went down to about 1,500 at the lowest point.  What has been noticeable is that the highest proportions are in those of school age.  I have a nagging worry that if this vairiant is really twice as likely to put people in hospital (and kill them) then there is a good chance it causes worse effects than before at the lowest ages.  This needs to be monitored as schools are going to have the highest proportions of those who aren't vaccinated going forward (The should teenagers be vaccinated arguement is for another day).

So overall it seems that the vaccination drive is nearly keeping up with the new variant, so I don't think there is a massive amount to worry about in the UK.  Though delaying "freedom day" just to piss off Andrew Lloyd Webber is almost worth it.   

Just going to add a bit to the travel debate.  Though we are likely to keep a semblance of control of the virus here going forward, I'd say it would be pretty bad to travel from a high proportion Delta variant country (eg here) to a country that doesn't have many people vaccinated (eg Japan). 

Another Wednesday, and another big shrug at the "Third Wave".

Starting with deaths, which is where thos weekly update started.  Another week has passed and there has been no increase in deaths at all.  There may be a lag in some of the data, but we are still seeing only 6 deaths a day on average and that has been the case for a fortnight now.  At this level it seems that "excess" deaths may stay below zero for some time.

Hospitalisations are up to an average of 150 a day over the latest week I can see, which is slightly up on the 125 I reported last week.  It has been over 180 for the last couple of days but that still isn't massive, and doesn't suggest there will be mases of deaths in the next couple of weeks.

Cases have been increasing by about 40% a week.  We have seen several days above 7,000 a day, but none above 8,000 in the last week.     

So overall things are getting a bit worse, but not massively so. 

   
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Marky147
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« Reply #4338 on: June 16, 2021, 02:13:26 PM »

https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1404822406015995912

Meaghan Kall is pretty good as well.

Hopefully it just pitters around like this for a few weeks, and the gov might even get back some of the lost goodwill by opening on the 5th.
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Marky147
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« Reply #4339 on: June 18, 2021, 01:21:43 AM »



Herd me up, buttercup.

Or not, probably.
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« Reply #4340 on: June 18, 2021, 12:05:16 PM »

A thread that I missed last week.

https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1405244834957365257

Meanwhile in Cornwall, the G7 summit is in danger of turning into a super spreader event, in an area that has had the lowest infection rates in England until now.

13 out of 17 staff at a hotel housing media and members of the German delegates' security team have caught covid.
...

The last few days have seen a surge in cases in Cornwall.

There have already been almost as many cases this week (102) as there were in the whole of May (121), and the data is still incomplete!

...

It took a day longer than I predicted, but Monday saw 120 covid cases in Cornwall, pretty much matching the 121 cases they had in *the whole of May* in a single day!
...

Zooming in on the map, it certainly looks like the G7 summit caused the surge.

By far the highest case rates are in St Ives on the left (were the summit took place) and Falmouth and the surrounding area on the right (where the media centre was).


Note this all started before the G7, but clearly a lot of preparation going on for G7 with large numbers of police etc. descending on Cornwall.

Further to this thread, the Uk Covid map has cases rising 834% in Cornwall in the week to 12 June, which I strongly suspect is the highest rate in the country (I haven't checked).

I know it isn't Wednesday, but since I did the Wednesday post, cases and hospitalisations have significantly increased.  Some deaths will inevitably follow. 

And Carl Henghan has taken to retweeting good news stories from August 2020. 

https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1299981956759924736

Presumably we can look forward to radio silence if deaths take off again?

Strangely, there is this quote from Carl within that article.  He seems to be doing someone else's job in highlighting how terrible his own predictions have been?

If you do end up in hospital, your chances of surviving Covid-19 have improved significantly. Medical teams now have a far better understanding of how to combat the virus with more effective treatments, such as dexamethasone.

The reality was that in wave 2, death rates in hospital were not much different from wave 1.

Anyway, in this wave, we are seeing much younger people, on average, in hospital.  So we should see much lower mortality rates than in the two previous waves. 
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« Reply #4341 on: June 18, 2021, 01:36:33 PM »

I only really follow the ONS, a few other shrewdies, and some accounts that like trolling the idiots now Cheesy

Think it's just going to be a summer like our roads... A little bit bumpy, but we'll get there safe enough in the end.

I'm quite confident Vegas will be ok for us by WSOP time.
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« Reply #4342 on: June 18, 2021, 03:29:34 PM »

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-16/reasonable-chance-travel-between-uk-and-us-could-resume-by-september-us-covid-expert-dr-anthony-fauci-tells-itv-news

Did not like seeing this, only a reasonable chance for September.

Say it aint so!
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Marky147
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« Reply #4343 on: June 18, 2021, 03:43:26 PM »

ITV in scaremongering headline shocker, and Hopkin giving them airtime.

Say it isn't so Cheesy
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« Reply #4344 on: June 18, 2021, 06:15:04 PM »

ITV in scaremongering headline shocker, and Hopkin giving them airtime.

Say it isn't so Cheesy


I think it should be OK.  I think the only worry is likely on the US side, where the delta variant is still only 10% of cases there.  I think we'll be well on the way down by then, with the school's breaking up.for 6 weeks and most adults will be double vaccinated. 

I think the US won't be far behind on vaccinations, so the WSOP will be fine, though I can't see me making it.  There are more people opposed to vaccination there, so wouldn't like to say there is no risk at all.   We'd have to run really bad to still have an issue here.   
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« Reply #4345 on: June 18, 2021, 06:17:40 PM »

ITV in scaremongering headline shocker, and Hopkin giving them airtime.

Say it isn't so Cheesy


I think it should be OK.  I think the only worry is likely on the US side, where the delta variant is still only 10% of cases there.  I think we'll be well on the way down by then, with the school's breaking up.for 6 weeks and most adults will be double vaccinated. 

I think the US won't be far behind on vaccinations, so the WSOP will be fine, though I can't see me making it.  There are more people opposed to vaccination there, so wouldn't like to say there is no risk at all.   We'd have to run really bad to still have an issue here.   

As long as you don't want to go to a Springsteen concert on Broadway and have had the Oxford, like me Grin
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« Reply #4346 on: June 19, 2021, 01:28:31 AM »

ITV in scaremongering headline shocker, and Hopkin giving them airtime.

Say it isn't so Cheesy


I think it should be OK.  I think the only worry is likely on the US side, where the delta variant is still only 10% of cases there.  I think we'll be well on the way down by then, with the school's breaking up.for 6 weeks and most adults will be double vaccinated. 

I think the US won't be far behind on vaccinations, so the WSOP will be fine, though I can't see me making it.  There are more people opposed to vaccination there, so wouldn't like to say there is no risk at all.   We'd have to run really bad to still have an issue here.   

As long as you don't want to go to a Springsteen concert on Broadway and have had the Oxford, like me Grin

Oh wow, didn't realise that was happening
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« Reply #4347 on: June 19, 2021, 04:53:17 AM »

ITV in scaremongering headline shocker, and Hopkin giving them airtime.

Say it isn't so Cheesy


I think it should be OK.  I think the only worry is likely on the US side, where the delta variant is still only 10% of cases there.  I think we'll be well on the way down by then, with the school's breaking up.for 6 weeks and most adults will be double vaccinated. 

I think the US won't be far behind on vaccinations, so the WSOP will be fine, though I can't see me making it.  There are more people opposed to vaccination there, so wouldn't like to say there is no risk at all.   We'd have to run really bad to still have an issue here.   

As long as you don't want to go to a Springsteen concert on Broadway and have had the Oxford, like me Grin

Oh wow, didn't realise that was happening

Haha, not sure it will much. Just seems to be this instance, and because it's not FDA approved yet.

Think all the other non FDA approved ones are in the same boat, but Oxford obv a better headline.
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« Reply #4348 on: June 19, 2021, 11:49:00 AM »

This thread is good.

Why do we get rising cases in summer? why do cases rise despite vaccination increases?  why did cases rise after we had to wear masks?  All covered in this well explained thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1405913697093140487

Now you too can roll your eyes at everything Ivor Cummins says.  It isn't just limited to Cummins obv.  Surprised my eyesight is still so terrible given the amount of exercise my eyes have got over the last 18 months.

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« Reply #4349 on: June 19, 2021, 02:05:42 PM »

This thread is good.

Why do we get rising cases in summer? why do cases rise despite vaccination increases?  why did cases rise after we had to wear masks?  All covered in this well explained thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1405913697093140487

Now you too can roll your eyes at everything Ivor Cummins says.  It isn't just limited to Cummins obv.  Surprised my eyesight is still so terrible given the amount of exercise my eyes have got over the last 18 months.

I read some of that, but was working and had to sack it off.

He's really good, and anyone with half a brain has been rolling their eyes at HP Cummins since last spring, anyway Grin

I've probably done more reading this last 12 months, than Tikay!
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