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hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #780 on: March 26, 2020, 10:51:08 AM »

Yeah if pushed I'd say its more unlikely than likely but with almost 12 weeks to go a lot can change (good or bad).

The problem is it's 2 countries that can throw a spanner in the works....Spain might be tentatively open by then but the UK could still be in bad shape and not permitting travel, or the opposite of course.

I work in the industry and the general consensus is that by June is when things will have improved enough for people to start commencing travel and other normal activities.
Most airlines are grounding flights until 31st May (Jet2 only until 1st May at present)

Watch this space but hoping for the best.

Sadly if these knob heads keep treating this as an extended bank holiday then we'll never get out of our homes.
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« Reply #781 on: March 26, 2020, 11:20:38 AM »

It’s hard to believe that they only did 2355 tests yesterday. The attempts to manipulate the numbers continue to go unchallenged. They do hardly any tests, it’s pointed out to them, so Boris says we’ll do “10,000” tests every day. They keep doing hardly any tests so Boris says we’ll “25,000” tests every day, a very Trumpesque approach.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview

Yesterday we went full North Korea on the numbers. Started briefing their preferred media outlets that England had 28 deaths in the last 24 hours at the end of the press conference. Waited until midnight for the DHSC to announce these numbers are not for 24 hours, no indication of what period they did cover. What are they expecting people to think happened for the numbers to drop like that?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url=http://[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20



The point being that if they want people to take instruction to lockdown seriously, then misrepresenting deaths will not help. Twitter/FB indicates that plenty of people think yesterday’s numbers mean the measures have worked and we have seen it off. We hadn’t take any measures in the relevant period other than “sing happy birthday while you wash your hands”.

It seems a stretch that they are deliverately misrepresenting stats.   The DHSC said it wasn't the full 24 hours in their twitter release.  It is easy for others to miss and accidentally misrepresent it.

If it carries on, then worry about it, it is more likely that something broke in their reporting process and they didn't have time to fix it.

I am not saying that Dom doesn't like to misrepresent things, he clearly does, but right now I don't think there is much evidence that they are trying to underplay the seriousness of this.

I rate your judgement, I hope you’re right. The problem is they’ve been indulged by the electorate to believe they can exist in a completely post truth world, it’s a luxury they won’t give up lightly. I usually hate a conspiracy theory even more than I hate a Conservative government, this is a suspicious though and they clearly won’t want to be reporting huge numbers while there is nothing remotely resembling a lockdown in place. Just for a bit more detail on yesterday, the DHSC said they’d update the dashboard at 14:00, they then updated to say they would be late but no new time given. The government briefed a small number of the press that it is was 28, so everyone went on the DHSC Twitter and said ‘why haven’t you updated and why has an obviously untrue number been informally briefed to the press’. Nothing from the DHSC until just before midnight when they said the numbers
were not for a 24 hour period, at the very least they should say the period it was for.
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Chompy
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« Reply #782 on: March 26, 2020, 11:34:02 AM »

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Good piece I found.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #783 on: March 26, 2020, 11:45:25 AM »


Best article I’ve read making the case against drastic action at this point, thanks for finding it.
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Doobs
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« Reply #784 on: March 26, 2020, 11:45:50 AM »


FYP
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« Reply #785 on: March 26, 2020, 12:19:30 PM »


I am an actuary and have been mathematically modelling for 30 years.  I am not Woodsey's bloke down the pub.

These type of articles are thouroughly misleading.   There are some scenarios where the death rate is kept to a few thousand and mortality is just like a bad flu epidemic.   If that happens great, and we went too far.  We lost a lot of jobs because we were too cautious.  That isn't so good, but we can celebrate most of us have our health and can resume our lives.

There are a lot of scenarios where this does not happen.   500,000 deaths in a few weeks wasn't some extreme scenario, I looked through the paper and you wouldn't really argue with any of it.  In these scenarios we lose hundreds of thousands of people we didn't need to.    We lose a lot of jobs too as we were too reckless.  We will get on with our lives too, but we lose a lot of people and the economy is trashed anyway.  

It isn't the fact it is new that has caused the reaction, it is the fact it will leave huge numbers of bodies piled up in a very short period.  We can cope with 500,000 deaths over the year, we can't cope with 500,000 extra ones in a month.  

I could go through the article and criticise a lot of it, but am home schooling so don't have the time right now.  But focussing on current death rates is idiotic, really idiotic.  We know what is likely to happen in 2 weeks with inadequate action, we can see Italy and Spain.  We know people don't die the second they are infected, they die 17 days later on average.  We know this lag is there.  We know cases were doubling every 2 or 3 days and it will take a couple of weeks until we can see the effect of the new measures.  

If in a month or so there is a really good outcome, and our NHS isn't overwhelmed, and we discover half the population already has immunity.  We overeacted and we can all go back to booking our holidays and reopening our pubs.  Some businesses that were on the brink already will be lost.  I can look for work again, and my hope to retire a bit before pension age may be tralistic again.   I think that would be a good result in the circumstances, and will be happy we avoided the really bad results.

Some of the assumptions will be shown to be wrong, so what?
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 12:36:29 PM by Doobs » Logged

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nirvana
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« Reply #786 on: March 26, 2020, 12:36:21 PM »


I am an actuary and have been mathematically modelling for 30 years.  I am not Woodsey's bloke down the pub.

These type of articles are thouroughly misleading.   There are some scenarios where the death rate is kept to a few thousand and mortality is just like a bad flu epidemic.   If that happens great, and we went too far.  We lost a lot of jobs because we were too cautious.  That isn't so good, but we can celebrate most of us have our health and can resume our lives.

There are a lot of scenarios where this does not happen.   500,000 deaths in a few weeks wasn't some extreme scenario, I looked through the paper and you wouldn't really argue with any of it.  In these scenarios we lose hundreds of thousands of people we didn't need to.    We lose a lot of jobs too as we were too reckless.  We will get on with our lives too, but we lose a lot of people and the economy is trashed anyway. 

It isn't the fact it is new that has caused the reaction, it is the fact it will leave huge numbers of bodies piled up in a very short period.  We can cope with 500,000 deaths over the year, we can't cope with 500,000 extra ones in a month. 

I could go through the article and criticise a lot of it, but am home schooling so don't have the time right now.  But focussing on current death rates is idiotic, really idiotic.  We know what is likely to happen in 2 weeks with inadequate action, we can see Italy and Spain.  We know people don't die the second they are infected, they die 17 days later on average.  We know this lag is there.  We know cases were increasing every 2 or 3 days and it will take a couple of weeks until we can see the effect of the new measures. 

If in a month or so there is a really good outcome, and our NHS isn't overwhelmed, and we discover half the population already has immunity.  We overeacted and we can all go back to booking our holidays and reopening our pubs.  Some businesses that were on the brink already will be lost.  I can look for work again, and my hope to retire a bit before pension age may be tralistic again.   I think that would be a good result in the circumstances, and will be happy we avoided the really bad results.

Some of the assumptions will be shown to be wrong, so what?
I'm totes sold on we're overreacting but tbf, I don't believe there's a climate emergency either
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Jon MW
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« Reply #787 on: March 26, 2020, 12:54:40 PM »

It’s hard to believe that they only did 2355 tests yesterday. The attempts to manipulate the numbers continue to go unchallenged. They do hardly any tests, it’s pointed out to them, so Boris says we’ll do “10,000” tests every day. They keep doing hardly any tests so Boris says we’ll “25,000” tests every day, a very Trumpesque approach.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview

Yesterday we went full North Korea on the numbers. Started briefing their preferred media outlets that England had 28 deaths in the last 24 hours at the end of the press conference. Waited until midnight for the DHSC to announce these numbers are not for 24 hours, no indication of what period they did cover. What are they expecting people to think happened for the numbers to drop like that?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url=http://[url=https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20] https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-uk-death-toll-reaches-435-after-rise-in-scotland-and-wales-11963431[url]

[url] https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1242950122981470208?s=20



The point being that if they want people to take instruction to lockdown seriously, then misrepresenting deaths will not help. Twitter/FB indicates that plenty of people think yesterday’s numbers mean the measures have worked and we have seen it off. We hadn’t take any measures in the relevant period other than “sing happy birthday while you wash your hands”.

It seems a stretch that they are deliverately misrepresenting stats.   The DHSC said it wasn't the full 24 hours in their twitter release.  It is easy for others to miss and accidentally misrepresent it.

If it carries on, then worry about it, it is more likely that something broke in their reporting process and they didn't have time to fix it.

I am not saying that Dom doesn't like to misrepresent things, he clearly does, but right now I don't think there is much evidence that they are trying to underplay the seriousness of this.

I rate your judgement, I hope you’re right. The problem is they’ve been indulged by the electorate to believe they can exist in a completely post truth world, it’s a luxury they won’t give up lightly. I usually hate a conspiracy theory even more than I hate a Conservative government, this is a suspicious though and they clearly won’t want to be reporting huge numbers while there is nothing remotely resembling a lockdown in place. Just for a bit more detail on yesterday, the DHSC said they’d update the dashboard at 14:00, they then updated to say they would be late but no new time given. The government briefed a small number of the press that it is was 28, so everyone went on the DHSC Twitter and said ‘why haven’t you updated and why has an obviously untrue number been informally briefed to the press’. Nothing from the DHSC until just before midnight when they said the numbers
were not for a 24 hour period, at the very least they should say the period it was for.

I'm pretty sure the DHSC have had to put out a tweet every day for a while saying they're going to post the numbers late.

My guess would be that they get all the numbers from the different health authorities - and they get it all from their constituent parts; and the DHSC aggregates them to release the figure.

Without any explanation I would assume that some of these places are being a bit slow. If it's London that's basically holding up the process - that's a big difference.

Given the time that DHSC actually posted their tweet I'm guessing they decided that no matter what they could not go a whole day without posting an update even though they knew it was incomplete.

As they said that this doesn't represent a whole day, I'd revise that to say it probably works like that but they get updates throughout the day.

If they had a problem receiving the 1am to 9am data, for example, or even just that data from London that would also fit in with the process I assume they do and the numbers could still make sense if that's the kind of level that's missing.

If it was a technical problem then it should get fixed, but London having so much data coming in that the data is difficult to compile is very feasibly an issue and we might get longer delays for a while.

This could be part of the reason why they were keen to change the updated figures being released weekly instead of daily, they might have anticipated that the process could be difficult to keep up.
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Doobs
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« Reply #788 on: March 26, 2020, 12:56:49 PM »


I am an actuary and have been mathematically modelling for 30 years.  I am not Woodsey's bloke down the pub.

These type of articles are thouroughly misleading.   There are some scenarios where the death rate is kept to a few thousand and mortality is just like a bad flu epidemic.   If that happens great, and we went too far.  We lost a lot of jobs because we were too cautious.  That isn't so good, but we can celebrate most of us have our health and can resume our lives.

There are a lot of scenarios where this does not happen.   500,000 deaths in a few weeks wasn't some extreme scenario, I looked through the paper and you wouldn't really argue with any of it.  In these scenarios we lose hundreds of thousands of people we didn't need to.    We lose a lot of jobs too as we were too reckless.  We will get on with our lives too, but we lose a lot of people and the economy is trashed anyway. 

It isn't the fact it is new that has caused the reaction, it is the fact it will leave huge numbers of bodies piled up in a very short period.  We can cope with 500,000 deaths over the year, we can't cope with 500,000 extra ones in a month. 

I could go through the article and criticise a lot of it, but am home schooling so don't have the time right now.  But focussing on current death rates is idiotic, really idiotic.  We know what is likely to happen in 2 weeks with inadequate action, we can see Italy and Spain.  We know people don't die the second they are infected, they die 17 days later on average.  We know this lag is there.  We know cases were increasing every 2 or 3 days and it will take a couple of weeks until we can see the effect of the new measures. 

If in a month or so there is a really good outcome, and our NHS isn't overwhelmed, and we discover half the population already has immunity.  We overeacted and we can all go back to booking our holidays and reopening our pubs.  Some businesses that were on the brink already will be lost.  I can look for work again, and my hope to retire a bit before pension age may be tralistic again.   I think that would be a good result in the circumstances, and will be happy we avoided the really bad results.

Some of the assumptions will be shown to be wrong, so what?
I'm totes sold on we're overreacting but tbf, I don't believe there's a climate emergency either

It is a similar thinking.

If you think there is an element of doubt, so there is only a 90% chance that the climate warming had been caused by human action.  

Do you
a) stop burning coal or

b) write an article in the Spectator saying there is a 10% chance this isn't down to us, and tell people assumptions can be wrong, so go build loads of coal powrler stations and go buy yourself big V8 cockmobiles.

Different ways of looking at the same thing, but I'd be firmly trying to do something rather than do nothing.
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« Reply #789 on: March 26, 2020, 01:08:03 PM »

Potentially positive news from what I assume is classed as a reputable source:

https://youtu.be/6bTF0_GUsRg

Thanks to all for their contributions itt and stay safe everyone.
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« Reply #790 on: March 26, 2020, 01:13:17 PM »

Potentially positive news from what I assume is classed as a reputable source:

https://youtu.be/6bTF0_GUsRg

Thanks to all for their contributions itt and stay safe everyone.

oh ffs. 
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« Reply #791 on: March 26, 2020, 01:15:35 PM »

Potentially positive news from what I assume is classed as a reputable source:

https://youtu.be/6bTF0_GUsRg

Thanks to all for their contributions itt and stay safe everyone.

That’s it, off out on the piss tonight!  Cheesy
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« Reply #792 on: March 26, 2020, 01:31:09 PM »

Fingers crossed the report is right.   
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« Reply #793 on: March 26, 2020, 01:42:50 PM »


Best article I’ve read making the case against drastic action at this point, thanks for finding it.

Sure thing. Took some finding but glad I made the effort.

Tbh I'm with nirvana at the moment in leaning towards this being overhyped sniffles but we're all still guessing of course.

The neighbour's made at least three essential journeys in her Range Rover already today but I Will NOT be going out.
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« Reply #794 on: March 26, 2020, 02:10:58 PM »


Best article I’ve read making the case against drastic action at this point, thanks for finding it.

Sure thing. Took some finding but glad I made the effort.

Tbh I'm with nirvana at the moment in leaning towards this being overhyped sniffles but we're all still guessing of course.

The neighbour's made at least three essential journeys in her Range Rover already today but I Will NOT be going out.

I‘m still leaning heavily towards our reaction has been late and is woefully inadequate. The guy in your article made a few points that were of more interest to me than most of the rest of the counter arguments that I’ve come across.
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