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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353936 times)
Jon MW
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« Reply #1140 on: April 04, 2020, 07:08:41 PM »


It is a massively long read but really does have lots of good insight. Hopefully helpful on the idea China are just making their numbers up as well.

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1246392991524229123?s=21

Have you got more links to journals and papers and less links to people on twitter?
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1141 on: April 04, 2020, 07:26:36 PM »


It is a massively long read but really does have lots of good insight. Hopefully helpful on the idea China are just making their numbers up as well.

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1246392991524229123?s=21

Have you got more links to journals and papers and less links to people on twitter?

I only tend to link people through Twitter who can evidence that they’ve taken a rigorous approach to what they present, it’s an excellent platform for sharing information in a spot like this, provided you filter out the nonsense. The findings of the public inquiry will be interesting but that’s a way off. It will also be a while until the issues as described by this guy are widely documented in journals and papers, I’ll bring them to your attention as and when I come across them.
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Woodsey
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« Reply #1142 on: April 04, 2020, 07:42:40 PM »


It is a massively long read but really does have lots of good insight. Hopefully helpful on the idea China are just making their numbers up as well.

https://twitter.com/atatimelikethis/status/1246392991524229123?s=21

I didnt read it but that’s not even a surprise to me? Just assumed they are as you would expect they would......
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1143 on: April 04, 2020, 07:53:14 PM »


This is an important one, with contributions from a guy at the ONS, I don’t think it matters that Twitter is the platform they’ve used to communicate:

https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1245066506842583040?s=21

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1144 on: April 04, 2020, 07:56:58 PM »


Another good chart (it’s a bit old now), for what Glen and Marky were discussing yesterday. US a big concern, if lockdown is the only the answer once you’ve lost and given up on the contact tracing battle:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246123616040779776?s=21
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aaron1867
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« Reply #1145 on: April 04, 2020, 08:33:23 PM »

Liverpool have put their staff on Furlough along with other Premier League clubs. But the outrage was clear to see across social media. I don't understand how folk can be annoyed about it? British Airways, will soon be putting 35,000 of their staff on it too.

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Jon MW
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« Reply #1146 on: April 04, 2020, 08:46:44 PM »


Another good chart (it’s a bit old now), for what Glen and Marky were discussing yesterday. US a big concern, if lockdown is the only the answer once you’ve lost and given up on the contact tracing battle:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246123616040779776?s=21

It would be a better chart if - for example - you were comparing more like with like; more countries in general for instance.

Mobility changes 29th March 2020

Retail - figures make sense given that Italy and Spain are basically at a standstill, the others are all pretty close to each other
Italy     -94%
Spain    -94%

France  -88%
UK       -85%
Switzerland -81%
Germany -77%

Grocery & Pharmacy - I don't think it's a good sign if pharmacists and food shops are hugely down
Italy             -85%
Spain            -76%
France          -72%

Germany        -51%
Switzerland    -51%
UK                -46%

Parks - parks are officially closed in Italy, Spain and France and they're not in UK, Germany and Italy.  
Italy              -90%
Spain            -89%
France           -82%

UK                -52%
Germany       -49%
Italy              -41%
Switzerland    -41%

Transit Stations - the UK is lower than the other countries the FT used in their graph; but why didn't they include this set of results in article? Is it because a 75% reduction in public transport doesn't help their argument enough? Why didn't they include Germany (for example) at all?
Spain             -88%
Italy               -87%
France            -87%
UK                 -75%
Germany         -68%
Switzerland    -68%

In terms of the statistics that were available why didn't they include possibly the most relevant ones: Workplaces and Residential?

Workplaces
Spain            -64%
Italy              -63%
France           -56%
UK                  -55%

Switzerland    -46%
Germany       -39%

Residential
Italy              +24%
Spain             +22%

France           +18%
UK                +15%
Switzerland     +15%
Germany         +11%


The wider set of numbers are interesting - https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

But I think it serves a wider and better illustration of why reliable sources on twitter might not be all that reliable.

You have a certain point of view.
You are more likely to notice a twitterer who shares your point of view
They are more likely to notice newspaper articles (for example) that share their point of view
But the newspapers have an editorial stance and they are the ones who will show the data which supports it rather than questions it. Most importantly they will select the data that supports it out of a wider set that might not be quite so conclusive.
That then feeds it's way back down the echo chamber.

That's why you will get a chart that compares park usage comparing countries where parks are officially closed to ones where parks are still open for example; but will ignore data that shows where countries are broadly similar or, when there is a difference, it is statistically insignificant.
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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Marky147
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« Reply #1147 on: April 04, 2020, 08:52:50 PM »

Give Jon MW the whole advent calendar this year, imo.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1148 on: April 04, 2020, 09:11:10 PM »


Another good chart (it’s a bit old now), for what Glen and Marky were discussing yesterday. US a big concern, if lockdown is the only the answer once you’ve lost and given up on the contact tracing battle:

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1246123616040779776?s=21

It would be a better chart if - for example - you were comparing more like with like; more countries in general for instance.

Mobility changes 29th March 2020

Retail - figures make sense given that Italy and Spain are basically at a standstill, the others are all pretty close to each other
Italy     -94%
Spain    -94%

France  -88%
UK       -85%
Switzerland -81%
Germany -77%

Grocery & Pharmacy - I don't think it's a good sign if pharmacists and food shops are hugely down
Italy             -85%
Spain            -76%
France          -72%

Germany        -51%
Switzerland    -51%
UK                -46%

Parks - parks are officially closed in Italy, Spain and France and they're not in UK, Germany and Italy.  
Italy              -90%
Spain            -89%
France           -82%

UK                -52%
Germany       -49%
Italy              -41%
Switzerland    -41%

Transit Stations - the UK is lower than the other countries the FT used in their graph; but why didn't they include this set of results in article? Is it because a 75% reduction in public transport doesn't help their argument enough? Why didn't they include Germany (for example) at all?
Spain             -88%
Italy               -87%
France            -87%
UK                 -75%
Germany         -68%
Switzerland    -68%

In terms of the statistics that were available why didn't they include possibly the most relevant ones: Workplaces and Residential?

Workplaces
Spain            -64%
Italy              -63%
France           -56%
UK                  -55%

Switzerland    -46%
Germany       -39%

Residential
Italy              +24%
Spain             +22%

France           +18%
UK                +15%
Switzerland     +15%
Germany         +11%


The wider set of numbers are interesting - https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

But I think it serves a wider and better illustration of why reliable sources on twitter might not be all that reliable.

You have a certain point of view.
You are more likely to notice a twitterer who shares your point of view
They are more likely to notice newspaper articles (for example) that share their point of view
But the newspapers have an editorial stance and they are the ones who will show the data which supports it rather than questions it. Most importantly they will select the data that supports it out of a wider set that might not be quite so conclusive.
That then feeds it's way back down the echo chamber.

That's why you will get a chart that compares park usage comparing countries where parks are officially closed to ones where parks are still open for example; but will ignore data that shows where countries are broadly similar or, when there is a difference, it is statistically insignificant.

Thanks again for a detailed reply. I think it would be wrong and might cloud your judgement to be over occupied with my anti Conservative view. The reason why he picked out the metrics he did was because they were exactly the same ones the government used in their slides that evening. There has never been a credible idea up to now that the FT is anti Tory, there might be a growing body of evidence that they don’t like Boris/right wing post truth populism, it would be hard to say they’re on the wrong side of those issues. I obviously have a strong anti Boris and anti Conservative view but my much bigger overriding interest in this is that all countries do the best possible job in combatting the virus.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #1149 on: April 05, 2020, 01:37:05 AM »

The closing non-essential work is a bit trickier, if we don't go over the ICU capacity then it definitely wasn't needed and if we do go over the ICU capacity there's a chance it would have made a difference.

Crikey. I assume this just slipped through and you don't really mean it.
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Jon MW
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« Reply #1150 on: April 05, 2020, 06:45:34 AM »

The closing non-essential work is a bit trickier, if we don't go over the ICU capacity then it definitely wasn't needed and if we do go over the ICU capacity there's a chance it would have made a difference.

Crikey. I assume this just slipped through and you don't really mean it.

No. I dont really understand your thinking.

Every measure is aimed at keeping critical cases below ICU capacity so if we don't breach that it implies we don't need any of the few extra restrictions to be put in place.

Can you elaborate on what you mean?
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Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1151 on: April 05, 2020, 09:05:37 AM »

The closing non-essential work is a bit trickier, if we don't go over the ICU capacity then it definitely wasn't needed and if we do go over the ICU capacity there's a chance it would have made a difference.

Crikey. I assume this just slipped through and you don't really mean it.

No. I dont really understand your thinking.

Every measure is aimed at keeping critical cases below ICU capacity so if we don't breach that it implies we don't need any of the few extra restrictions to be put in place.

Can you elaborate on what you mean?

We’re already going to need to give the decision makers a wide definition of what overwhelmed ICU capacity looks like:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52145140

Not good reading for the nations who went down the abandon contract tracing and then pause before going for a lockdown lite approach:

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

The gagging threats described in the BBC article will be familiar to anyone who’s worked in public service since 2010.





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nirvana
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« Reply #1152 on: April 05, 2020, 09:43:48 AM »

Don't worry everyone Keir is in charge of holding the Government to higher competency levels now - he has stated, quite clearly, categorically, that there should be a national vaccination programme put in place when a vaccine is available.

This kind of insight has been missing so far
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nirvana
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« Reply #1153 on: April 05, 2020, 09:51:43 AM »

The closing non-essential work is a bit trickier, if we don't go over the ICU capacity then it definitely wasn't needed and if we do go over the ICU capacity there's a chance it would have made a difference.

Crikey. I assume this just slipped through and you don't really mean it.

No. I dont really understand your thinking.

Every measure is aimed at keeping critical cases below ICU capacity so if we don't breach that it implies we don't need any of the few extra restrictions to be put in place.

Can you elaborate on what you mean?

This is how i read things too, if we don't accept this as a premise, given a vaccine is probably > 12 months away, then we don't lift any restrictions for a very long time which is unsustainable in my view.

I suppose if we find out in the meantime that 70-80% of people have had it and this confers some immunity then we could escape lockdown sooner
« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 09:54:32 AM by nirvana » Logged

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nirvana
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« Reply #1154 on: April 05, 2020, 09:53:44 AM »

Be very interesting to see how things develop in Sweden, Germany, Austria where the experience of outcomes so far, making a large assumption we're all measuring consistently, is very different from UK, Italy, France, Spain.
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