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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 353911 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #1800 on: April 28, 2020, 03:45:44 PM »


This is good, addressing the ‘following the science’ nonsense:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/28/theres-no-such-thing-just-following-the-science-coronavirus-advice-political
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Woodsey
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« Reply #1801 on: April 28, 2020, 05:20:58 PM »


You have always said you never read the guardian......
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Woodsey
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« Reply #1802 on: April 28, 2020, 10:28:15 PM »

Massive queues in fast foods places after NZ after lifted restrictions slightly, god I’d be in that queue..... 
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RickBFA
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« Reply #1803 on: April 28, 2020, 10:41:03 PM »

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-ready-to-tighten-lockdown-as-coronavirus-cases-climb-again-jgbsl5xp6

Interesting article on Germany.
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Woodsey
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« Reply #1804 on: April 28, 2020, 10:47:22 PM »


No surprise......those rattling on with judgments need to wait a good 12 months with those judgements happen.....
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Doobs
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« Reply #1805 on: April 29, 2020, 12:07:56 AM »


No surprise......those rattling on with judgments need to wait a good 12 months with those judgements happen.....

Outside the payroll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/germany-lockdown-eases-spread-coronavirus-worsens-200428075843362.html

Just for interest, what judgements do you think people need to wait 12 months on?   

The Government have clearly been making judgements for several months already.  Many things have been known about COVID19 for some time, and we now know more than the Government did when they started making these judgements. 
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« Reply #1806 on: April 29, 2020, 12:27:59 AM »

Excess deaths now in the range 41,000 to 48,000

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2016%202020%20v01%202020-04-28.pdf

Several people have been ridiculing the idea that deaths could reach 100,000 this year if we move to just shield the elderly.  It seems pretty clear that deaths could reach 100,000 this year even if we don't.   Whilst the hospital deaths may have peaked, it seems uncertain that care home deaths have peaked, and there is no certainty the way down is rapid enough even if we carry on as we are.   
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EvilPie
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« Reply #1807 on: April 29, 2020, 07:32:16 AM »


No surprise......those rattling on with judgments need to wait a good 12 months with those judgements happen.....

Outside the payroll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/germany-lockdown-eases-spread-coronavirus-worsens-200428075843362.html

Just for interest, what judgements do you think people need to wait 12 months on?   

The Government have clearly been making judgements for several months already.  Many things have been known about COVID19 for some time, and we now know more than the Government did when they started making these judgements. 

What? Of course Governments can't wait 12 months to make their judgements, they have to act as soon as possible and hope they get it right.

Pretty sure what Woodsey was referring to was holding off on the "what they should've done......" hindsight bullshit for 12 months.

This Germany stuff seemed pretty obvious to me for what my humble opinion is worth. You can't keep the thing out forever unless you completely close your country forever (or until a vaccine turns up). Every country that has seemingly done brilliantly has to let the f**king thing in at some point unless they plan on completely isolating themselves from the rest of the world for a couple of years.

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Pokerpops
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« Reply #1808 on: April 29, 2020, 07:54:35 AM »

Excess deaths now in the range 41,000 to 48,000

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2016%202020%20v01%202020-04-28.pdf

Several people have been ridiculing the idea that deaths could reach 100,000 this year if we move to just shield the elderly.  It seems pretty clear that deaths could reach 100,000 this year even if we don't.   Whilst the hospital deaths may have peaked, it seems uncertain that care home deaths have peaked, and there is no certainty the way down is rapid enough even if we carry on as we are.   

Are these total death figures available for other nations?
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
kukushkin88
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« Reply #1809 on: April 29, 2020, 07:56:15 AM »


No surprise......those rattling on with judgments need to wait a good 12 months with those judgements happen.....

Outside the payroll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/germany-lockdown-eases-spread-coronavirus-worsens-200428075843362.html

Just for interest, what judgements do you think people need to wait 12 months on?   

The Government have clearly been making judgements for several months already.  Many things have been known about COVID19 for some time, and we now know more than the Government did when they started making these judgements. 

What? Of course Governments can't wait 12 months to make their judgements, they have to act as soon as possible and hope they get it right.

Pretty sure what Woodsey was referring to was holding off on the "what they should've done......" hindsight bullshit for 12 months.

This Germany stuff seemed pretty obvious to me for what my humble opinion is worth. You can't keep the thing out forever unless you completely close your country forever (or until a vaccine turns up). Every country that has seemingly done brilliantly has to let the f**king thing in at some point unless they plan on completely isolating themselves from the rest of the world for a couple of years.


This is a good explanation of how to deal with it. No need to close your country forever.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1810 on: April 29, 2020, 07:57:18 AM »

Excess deaths now in the range 41,000 to 48,000

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2016%202020%20v01%202020-04-28.pdf

Several people have been ridiculing the idea that deaths could reach 100,000 this year if we move to just shield the elderly.  It seems pretty clear that deaths could reach 100,000 this year even if we don't.   Whilst the hospital deaths may have peaked, it seems uncertain that care home deaths have peaked, and there is no certainty the way down is rapid enough even if we carry on as we are.   

Are these total death figures available for other nations?

https://euromomo.eu/
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1811 on: April 29, 2020, 08:12:48 AM »


No surprise......those rattling on with judgments need to wait a good 12 months with those judgements happen.....

Outside the payroll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/germany-lockdown-eases-spread-coronavirus-worsens-200428075843362.html

Just for interest, what judgements do you think people need to wait 12 months on?   

The Government have clearly been making judgements for several months already.  Many things have been known about COVID19 for some time, and we now know more than the Government did when they started making these judgements. 

What? Of course Governments can't wait 12 months to make their judgements, they have to act as soon as possible and hope they get it right.

Pretty sure what Woodsey was referring to was holding off on the "what they should've done......" hindsight bullshit for 12 months.

This Germany stuff seemed pretty obvious to me for what my humble opinion is worth. You can't keep the thing out forever unless you completely close your country forever (or until a vaccine turns up). Every country that has seemingly done brilliantly has to let the f**king thing in at some point unless they plan on completely isolating themselves from the rest of the world for a couple of years.


This is a good explanation of how to deal with it. No need to close your country forever.

Ha, completely forgot the link:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e
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Pokerpops
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« Reply #1812 on: April 29, 2020, 08:16:25 AM »

Excess deaths now in the range 41,000 to 48,000

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2016%202020%20v01%202020-04-28.pdf

Several people have been ridiculing the idea that deaths could reach 100,000 this year if we move to just shield the elderly.  It seems pretty clear that deaths could reach 100,000 this year even if we don't.   Whilst the hospital deaths may have peaked, it seems uncertain that care home deaths have peaked, and there is no certainty the way down is rapid enough even if we carry on as we are.   

Are these total death figures available for other nations?

https://euromomo.eu/

I’ll wait for an actuary or a statistician to advise on the interpretation of these figures.
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"More than at any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
Jon MW
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« Reply #1813 on: April 29, 2020, 08:31:30 AM »


No surprise......those rattling on with judgments need to wait a good 12 months with those judgements happen.....

Outside the payroll

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/germany-lockdown-eases-spread-coronavirus-worsens-200428075843362.html

Just for interest, what judgements do you think people need to wait 12 months on?  

The Government have clearly been making judgements for several months already.  Many things have been known about COVID19 for some time, and we now know more than the Government did when they started making these judgements.  

What? Of course Governments can't wait 12 months to make their judgements, they have to act as soon as possible and hope they get it right.

Pretty sure what Woodsey was referring to was holding off on the "what they should've done......" hindsight bullshit for 12 months.

This Germany stuff seemed pretty obvious to me for what my humble opinion is worth. You can't keep the thing out forever unless you completely close your country forever (or until a vaccine turns up). Every country that has seemingly done brilliantly has to let the f**king thing in at some point unless they plan on completely isolating themselves from the rest of the world for a couple of years.


This is a good explanation of how to deal with it. No need to close your country forever.

Ha, completely forgot the link:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e

It's generally a good description but it has got an editorial bias.

It is working on the assumption that every country could control the virus if they did the right thing at the right time, and that would be down to primarily just doing enough tests.

For example it says,
"On one side, we have countries like the US, Spain, UK, or France that have an epidemic that is out of control. They weren’t prepared to handle the crisis, so they applied the Hammer, a series of very heavy measures to lock down the economy and prevent people from getting infected. This is how they stop the epidemic. For them, testing massive amounts of people is not necessary at this point, because they limit the spread with the Hammer. The only people they need to test are those who are sick or likely to get sick (eg, healthcare workers)"

This correctly says that testing a lot isn't necessary at the point where the epidemic is out of control (more accurately when the government monitored spread of the disease is less than the community 'unknown' spread of the disease) but the underlying implication is that it is just a matter of doing more earlier that lead to that point.

It also says, "For most developed countries, the worse their testing has been, the worse their epidemic."

I'd suggest that's the wrong way around, the worse a countries epidemic has been - the less their testing has been; for the exact reason the same article already mentioned - they didn't need it.

The idea that every country could have control like New Zealand, S Korea or Singapore 'technically' 'migt' be possible, but for example, someobody suggested that for the UK to test every entrant to the UK (like S Korea did) would mean 500,000 tests a day. Germany started the epidemic with 100,000 a day capacity and the US currently has about 200,000 test a day capacity so it's clear that (even if it worked, which it might not have done) actually being able to stop the virus  from becoming out of control is not in reality something that could have ever happened.

Summary: the gist is right, the editorial bias is ... misguided.


EDIT: it also uses some figures as definitive whereas they're actually (research driven) estimates, still goes with the gist being right but the answer is not as 'definite' as they suggest.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2020, 08:34:26 AM by Jon MW » Logged

Jon "the British cowboy" Woodfield

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #1814 on: April 29, 2020, 08:32:48 AM »

Excess deaths now in the range 41,000 to 48,000

https://www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2016%202020%20v01%202020-04-28.pdf

Several people have been ridiculing the idea that deaths could reach 100,000 this year if we move to just shield the elderly.  It seems pretty clear that deaths could reach 100,000 this year even if we don't.   Whilst the hospital deaths may have peaked, it seems uncertain that care home deaths have peaked, and there is no certainty the way down is rapid enough even if we carry on as we are.   

Are these total death figures available for other nations?

https://euromomo.eu/

I’ll wait for an actuary or a statistician to advise on the interpretation of these figures.

The bottom of this page is straightforward enough for comparative purposes, without expert interpretation:

https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

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