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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 278793 times)
EvilPie
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« Reply #4515 on: November 30, 2021, 04:48:23 PM »

Was moved to write to my MP today and explain how he'd lost my vote.

Drifting left on so many 'woke' issues while doing nothing meaningful in areas that matter to people's quality of life in areas like social care, benefits levels for those in need

Drifting right on rhetoric around illegal immigration while doing nothing meaningful to resolve the issue at source, improve systems, help people in need in a controlled way etc

Latest abso bollocks to wear a mask in shops - just performative shite - am I really more likely to contract covid in a shop than sat in a pub or busy restaurant. Fkn morons (didn't say that in my letter)

He's lucky my vote isn't a six pointer as no way I can vote for any of the other parties either, we don't even tend to get any jokey candidates so limited options there too.

Explained I didn't need a response but felt he should know directly, rather than via polls, that he has definitely lost at least one vote thanks to the abso stream of shite emanating from his party and that being the least worse option wasn't enough to get me to vote for them


Completely agree with most of this but not on the masks.

You're obviously correct about the likelihood of contracting anything but I think it's more to do with personal choice in scenarios where they've made masks compulsory again.

Pubs are personal choice, you can go to them or not and if you're vulnerable you can choose to lessen your personal risk by staying away.

Public transport and shops are essential for many so I think mask wearing is a good thing.

I don't think wearing a mask is going to save my life but if makes some old dear feel more a bit more comfortable sat near me on the bus or walking past me in Lidl then I'm all for it.

Where they completely f**ked up was getting rid of mandatory mask wearing in the first place. If they'd kept them in place all along for shops and public transport nobody would've batted an eye lid. Now I'll be amazed if more than 25% of people bother with them.
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nirvana
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« Reply #4516 on: November 30, 2021, 09:11:33 PM »

Yep, that's a good point on pubs being personal choices and I do get the bit about making others feel more comfortable.

Cheers
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« Reply #4517 on: December 02, 2021, 08:33:25 AM »

The main issue with masks was the flip flopping around exemptions.

Should have made it mandatory to have your exemption certified by a doctor. Would have stopped the people claiming to have one just to avoid wearing a mask, and then hopefully would have seen society get used to them. Now you just have people fed up of "mask on, mask off" rules just saying sod it and claiming an exemption when they dont have one.
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« Reply #4518 on: December 15, 2021, 11:12:39 PM »


It has taken me a while to come back and it is more like a monthly update now.  Things just seemed really steady for a while, so I didn't give it much attention, and cases appeared to be falling, so thought I'd have a look.  I was pretty surprised by what I found.

I used to do a weekly comparison on a Wednesday as it tended to smooth out the peaks and troughs, and since I posted last time there hasn't been a single week where deaths have fallen, and they are now 50% higher than they were last month.   Deaths were up at about 130 a day on average in England in the week to the 3 November.  If we have reached a more stable endemic state then I was hopeful that we'd be having less than 100 deaths a day.  I don't think we will go back to severe restrictions any time soon, but it is still a bit sad to see this.

Hospitalisations have avaeraged over 1,000 a day for the last month or so, but there are signs the tide could be turning, which suggests that we may well be near the peak of deaths and we may well get deaths below 100 a day.

Cases seems to be all twitter talks about now, maybve because that is where the good news has been.  I don't really buy into the ongoing belief that cases are really tumbling.  4 weeks ago there were 43,000 cases, a week ago 35,000.  So sure cases are falling, but there hasn't been a massive fall off yet.   

I was thinking it must have been a couple of months ago when I posted that we might be entering a more stable state, and just checked 8 weeks ago and we had pretty much bang on 35,000 cases then too.  Now Covid has gone through the secondary schools and there is nowhere else it can really spread rapidly, so there should be a fall from here.  It does feel that we'll need to keep on top of boosters and improving treatments going forward, but that will need most people to keep taking it seriously and we need to keep the proportion that can't be arsed with it anymore quite low.     

Might move to three month updates, can't be arsed with it anymore.

Looks like about 6 weeks since I did one of these and how things have changed

I was pretty optimistic all of 6 weeks ago, but events...

Deaths have actually trended down since I last posted.  Back then we were averaging just above 100 a day in England, last week it was just below. 

Hospitalisations were just going below 1,000 a day back then; we went below that, but that is about to end, because...

Even before Omicron, cases had been steadily increasing for the last month or so.  I look at 7 day averages, and compare them with 7 day averages a week ago.  On that measure we have been seeing increases for over a month now, so with just Delta things were likely getting worse each week (boosters were definitely having an effect, so I can't really be sure).  If you add Omicron on to an outlook that was probably getting worse, then it can't be good news. 

There has been a lot of talk that Omicron is no worse than flu; frequently from the same people who said every other variant was no worse than flu.  It may well be that Omicron is no worse than flu, and it is still a possibilty, but you can't just assume that, particularly as we know that we were already experiencing news that wasn't good from just the Delta variant. 

The problem people like me have is that we don't really know yet with Omicron.  Even now I am not really sure how this goes.  But over the last couple of weeks every Covid moron has jumped into the information vacuum with their hot takes, and some of them are really bad. 

If Omicron cases double every 2 or 3 days, and that is what has been happening, then comparing oimicron cases today with omicron deaths today is clearly a ludicrous comparison.  There has been a roughly 3 week lag between cases and deaths throughout this, so we could clearly be comparing deaths with a cases figure which is out by a factor of 64 (cases increase 4 fold per week, so 3 weeks = 64 as 4x4x4 is 64), and even then that could be an underestimate of the effect of lag.  If you look at an average of any distribution, you can assume that roughly half the distribution is below the mean, and half above, so we could be out by a factor of over 100 if we just compare omicron deaths to omicron cases today.  And that is before we add in the fact that not every omicron death is going to be recorded accurately as an omicron death.  And nearly every poor sod who has died from Covid started out with an illness that looked mild at the beginning, so noticing most omicron cases are mild today isn't really as strong a piece of evidence as people think, particularly when omicron seems to be hitting the young first. 

So right now, we have a lot of younger people with mild illnesses, and with just one (?) confirmed death in the UK, and a lot of people are popping open the champagne. This may be a sign that this wave is going to be OK, and it may well be.  But maybe just give it a couple of weeks, and crack the Champagne open on New Year's Eve, if it has got no worse.

I still think vaccine passports are a bit of a waste of time; they are clearly divisive and I don't think they work very well (because genuine vaccine sceptics are too few to make a significant difference to our overall risk in most settings).  It must be tough to vote down vaccine passports in reality, given the absolute bellends you'd be associated with by doing so.   

Merry Christmas everyone, FWIW I haven't cancelled yet.
   
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« Reply #4519 on: December 16, 2021, 10:05:07 AM »

Merry Christmas Doobs, and thanks for your take on this, it's always interesting and informative.
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« Reply #4520 on: December 17, 2021, 08:34:29 AM »

Merry Christmas Doobs, and thanks for your take on this, it's always interesting and informative.

+1

Happy Xmas everyone!

This has been one of the much better COVID threads to follow, that's for sure.

I'm hoping I might time things right, for once this trip.

Avoiding UK until early Janaury, and getting out of the US at the same time.
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« Reply #4521 on: December 23, 2021, 11:13:10 PM »

This made me chuckle.



Cannot stand Candace Owens, one of the biggest grifters to come out of the states.

Funny watching how annoyed she's getting when Donald is talking about how good the vaccines are Cheesy
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« Reply #4522 on: December 24, 2021, 02:07:48 PM »

Merry Christmas Doobs, and thanks for your take on this, it's always interesting and informative.

+1
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« Reply #4523 on: December 25, 2021, 08:41:09 PM »

Merry Christmas Doobs, and thanks for your take on this, it's always interesting and informative.

+1


Thanks for the good wishes.

Could do a minor Christmas non standard pdate.

Omicron isn't mild, it might be milder, but a milder version of something 10x worse than flu isn't a cold.  I read the other day it was up to 70% less severe than flu, but think that is like the sales where everything is "up to" 70% off, but when you look at things closer they are all 20% off.   

The case number rises are still worrying, so am hoping I am wrong and 70% is real and they haven't got the numbers the wrong way around (again).   Got boosted the other day, and managed to get my mum (long story) and daughter in the cubicles next to each other a couple of days ago... despite living 150 miles apart.

Stats will be all over the place over Christmas, as there will be no/under-reported official numbers for a few days.  So the epidemic really hasn't gompertz-downed in the next couple of days and the record numbers on the 29th are going to be significantly overstated too. 

Have done Christmas with the family, hope everyone else was so lucky and didn't get omicroned.   
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« Reply #4524 on: December 27, 2021, 03:47:20 PM »

25th/26th/27th figures are all in for Scotland and all significantly higher than previously that's even with the probably under reporting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59802261
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« Reply #4525 on: January 02, 2022, 03:56:34 PM »


Looks like about 6 weeks since I did one of these and how things have changed

I was pretty optimistic all of 6 weeks ago, but events...

Deaths have actually trended down since I last posted.  Back then we were averaging just above 100 a day in England, last week it was just below. 

Hospitalisations were just going below 1,000 a day back then; we went below that, but that is about to end, because...

Even before Omicron, cases had been steadily increasing for the last month or so.  I look at 7 day averages, and compare them with 7 day averages a week ago.  On that measure we have been seeing increases for over a month now, so with just Delta things were likely getting worse each week (boosters were definitely having an effect, so I can't really be sure).  If you add Omicron on to an outlook that was probably getting worse, then it can't be good news. 

There has been a lot of talk that Omicron is no worse than flu; frequently from the same people who said every other variant was no worse than flu.  It may well be that Omicron is no worse than flu, and it is still a possibilty, but you can't just assume that, particularly as we know that we were already experiencing news that wasn't good from just the Delta variant. 

The problem people like me have is that we don't really know yet with Omicron.  Even now I am not really sure how this goes.  But over the last couple of weeks every Covid moron has jumped into the information vacuum with their hot takes, and some of them are really bad. 

If Omicron cases double every 2 or 3 days, and that is what has been happening, then comparing oimicron cases today with omicron deaths today is clearly a ludicrous comparison.  There has been a roughly 3 week lag between cases and deaths throughout this, so we could clearly be comparing deaths with a cases figure which is out by a factor of 64 (cases increase 4 fold per week, so 3 weeks = 64 as 4x4x4 is 64), and even then that could be an underestimate of the effect of lag.  If you look at an average of any distribution, you can assume that roughly half the distribution is below the mean, and half above, so we could be out by a factor of over 100 if we just compare omicron deaths to omicron cases today.  And that is before we add in the fact that not every omicron death is going to be recorded accurately as an omicron death.  And nearly every poor sod who has died from Covid started out with an illness that looked mild at the beginning, so noticing most omicron cases are mild today isn't really as strong a piece of evidence as people think, particularly when omicron seems to be hitting the young first. 

So right now, we have a lot of younger people with mild illnesses, and with just one (?) confirmed death in the UK, and a lot of people are popping open the champagne. This may be a sign that this wave is going to be OK, and it may well be.  But maybe just give it a couple of weeks, and crack the Champagne open on New Year's Eve, if it has got no worse.

I still think vaccine passports are a bit of a waste of time; they are clearly divisive and I don't think they work very well (because genuine vaccine sceptics are too few to make a significant difference to our overall risk in most settings).  It must be tough to vote down vaccine passports in reality, given the absolute bellends you'd be associated with by doing so.   

Merry Christmas everyone, FWIW I haven't cancelled yet.
   

Given I said we that we should have a clearer view by New Year's Eve, I'll do an update.

I am not sure we should have been cracking open the champagne on New Year's Eve or visiting vulnerable relatives at Christmas, but I did both.

I'd say that it is pretty clear by now that Omicron is milder than delta, but can't say how much of that is down to vaccines, previous infections, the virus itself or age distribution of victims.  I think it is a combo of all those things, and the proportions don't really matter.  There is also some evidence that it has peaked in London; I don't think it is falling rapidly yet, and it is hard to tell due to the disruptions to reporting over Christmas and the New Year.  I think it has least hit a plateau and has probably fallen a bit.  Deaths have been pretty flat since I posted last time.

So that is the good news, on to the not so good news.

Cases overall have been increasing pretty rapidly, but are no longer doubling every 2 or 3 days.  It doesn't seem like long ago at all that cases had been steady at about 50,000 a day for some time.   There might be some disruption in the figures, but we are close to 200,000 a day right now.  It might not be obvious to most, but that 200K ignores reinfections, so if you have officially had it before, then your current infection doesn't count.  This didn't really matter much before omicron, as reinfections were known to be fairly rare, but now it is likely to be significant.  This is on target to get resolved towards the end of January, so they'll likely be an unusual jump around then. 

Hospitalisations have also been rising rapidly, by about 60% a week.  People seem to be spending less time in hospital, which is good.  Some of that may be temporary, as omicron is so new that longer stays aren't possible yet, so average and median stays can be understated (some of those currently in for a couple of days could still end up staying a couple of months).  Also ICU and ventilator beds are still looking much lower than in the last, which appears to be at least partially genuine (again much of that will be hidden as hospital admissions have only started rising rapidly for the last week or two, so many of those ICU movements won't have happened yet).     

Deaths are flat right now, but you can see in the last week's stats that this is about to change once the lag effects are removed.

So overall it appears manageable for now, but there are some worrying times ahead, and hospitals are likely to be busy for some time.
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« Reply #4526 on: January 02, 2022, 08:30:48 PM »

I, and other people I know from different social circles, have had Covid over Xmas and it’s all similar symptoms - basically that of a head cold, without the big coughing and lung shenanigans of previous waves.

I’m in Dublin and in the space of a few days, it went from me not knowing anyone who had covid since the start of it all, to several friends, who don’t know each other, getting it in a space of a few days. It’s essentially everywhere here - case levels are at record levels yet many people can’t even get PCR tests as the testing centres are maxed out - the website to book them gets booked out just after midnight everyday when the new day’s appts are available.
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« Reply #4527 on: January 03, 2022, 12:32:48 PM »

I, and other people I know from different social circles, have had Covid over Xmas and it’s all similar symptoms - basically that of a head cold, without the big coughing and lung shenanigans of previous waves.

I’m in Dublin and in the space of a few days, it went from me not knowing anyone who had covid since the start of it all, to several friends, who don’t know each other, getting it in a space of a few days. It’s essentially everywhere here - case levels are at record levels yet many people can’t even get PCR tests as the testing centres are maxed out - the website to book them gets booked out just after midnight everyday when the new day’s appts are available.

Think the availability of tests is pretty much the same here.   I have sleep apnoea, so every so often I get bad sleep, headache and feel like crap.  I put that in the Zoe App the other day and it said I should get a PCR test.  I didn't want to bump those who are more likely to have Covid, so didn't go. 

I am pretty optimistic we can get through this now, as it seems clear that it is milder overall.  I suspect the kids are going to find it hard to dodge omicron next term and I am not at all convinced it is milder for them, as child admissions are higher than ever. 

I had booked a holiday to Norway later in the year, but that seems pretty unlikely now.  Think the current rules there are multiple tests plus 10 days quarantine, which isn't going to be the best trip ever.   I did check back and the UK has been on the naughty list for 4 months or so, so am going to need a proper sharp drop off in cases or a Norweigan rethink.  Norweigan Airlines was already a basket case too, so we may struggle to get there even with an optimistic runout.

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« Reply #4528 on: January 03, 2022, 05:09:33 PM »

Should it not just be considered as winter flu ?

Does nobody die of pneumonia/ heart attack / stroke anymore?

All deaths are grouped as covids ?

What are the normal daily deaths pre covid in the uk ?
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« Reply #4529 on: January 03, 2022, 05:26:28 PM »

Should it not just be considered as winter flu ?

Does nobody die of pneumonia/ heart attack / stroke anymore?

All deaths are grouped as covids ?

What are the normal daily deaths pre covid in the uk ?

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/selected-deaths-vs-covid-19-united-kingdom

thats shows you all the deaths in UK and there causes since the start of the pandemic

flu and Pneumonia has killed half the amount COVID has
heart disease and Alzheimers have both killed more
and if you lump all the cancers together maybe about the same

the number of deaths from COVID would be a lot higher without the distancing measures and the vaccines
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