UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

a reminder because of the electoral system (constituency sizes compared to distribution of major party votes), the tories need to be 3% ahead on election day to have most seats

[George2Loose]

Maybe the SNP vote has been over stated? It's gonna be very interesting times for politics! What are the chances of another election within 12 months? Would that yield a different result?

[DMorgan]

Paddy are 9/2 on 2 or more elections in 2015

[TightEnd]

Maybe the SNP vote has been over stated? It's gonna be very interesting times for politics! What are the chances of another election within 12 months? Would that yield a different result?

(sorry to keep replying, i love elections)

there is some chatter that there will be tactical voting in scotland with lib, lab and tory voters voting for the most likely of the three in a constituency to keep snp out. we will see

the fixed term parliament act was introduced, and you think that if neither side can get a majority or a coalition that a supply and confidence vote by vote deal will be very vulnerable

however, this graphic gives some reason why a weak government might limp along

written by the mp chris huhne (him, disgraced for the speeding tickets stuff) but still a very asutue political mind

Click to see full-size image.

so whilst a second election is possible, its less likely than you'd think

elections are expensive, the government wouldn't want one but the opposition might calculate that playing the long game is better

[George2Loose]

Tighty pls keep replying. I love elections too. Need to get the Friday off so I can watch it all night!

I didn't realise the fixed parliament act applied to all governments onward. I thought it was just for the one term. Can't a new government simply reverse that? It's a pretty huge constitutional change which slipped under the radar somewhat

[TightEnd]

the full huhne article is at http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/david-cameron-coalitions-here-to-stay-voters-fixed-term-parliaments

again to reverse it, you need to get it through parliament, that needs a majority

under what circumstances would an opposition in a minoirty parliament vote a change in the fixed term act through, as soon as they do so the government might call an election to try to win a majority...?

and the government will only ask in the first place, if it wants to call an election

so there is no time which would suit both....

[DungBeetle]

Tighty pls keep replying. I love elections too. Need to get the Friday off so I can watch it all night!

I didn't realise the fixed parliament act applied to all governments onward. I thought it was just for the one term. Can't a new government simply reverse that? It's a pretty huge constitutional change which slipped under the radar somewhat

Haha - thought I was the only person in the country who did that.  Get tanked up and watch 10 hours of election results and interviews.

Meanwhile, the comments below Miliband and Cameron's twitter accounts bring me childish amusement on an almost daily basis.  Today's observation:

"Weird looking f*cker but I like him"

[StuartHopkin]

I would love to see what the vote would be if the form said

[  ] Carry on as we are

[  ] Allow the Scottish party, who don't want to be part of the UK, to have a large influence over the next 4 years

I don't really get this line of argument. Ok so the SNP don't want to be part of the UK but the majority of Scottish people do
 

 

But I thought that the majority (55% on an 85% turnout) voted that they didn't???

Not 100% sure I understand the question but I think we're talking about SNP non-independence supporters?

There are going to be a lot of people that voted No to independence voting for SNP MPs in May if the polls are correct.. It will be very interesting to see whether they do really make the 50ish seats that they are polling or whether there still exists a hangover from the referendum where there was a silent majority that voted No. Maybe there will be a similar situation come polling day when for all the momentum and patriotic feeling that the SNP is experiencing that is left over from the referendum translates into big gains and puts the SNP on the map as a major player in Westminster or whether a lot of the lifelong Labour voters will tick the same box that they always have.

My point  was meant to be that the majority of people who I seem to speak to don't realise that their actions are an indirect vote for a Labour/SNP coalition.

When you explain this to them, it isn't what they want at all.

Another reason for PR. Much prefer the above to blukip

Why, if you don't mind me asking?

[George2Loose]

I just think the blukip have no social conscience. I understand that ideology can sometimes cause problems when trying to run a country but I believe miliband when he says they've learnt lessons from the past. Not so sure on Ed Balls.

I think the language and rhetoric that comes from UKIP is quite dangerous although I understand partly what he's trying to debate.

[DungBeetle]

Who are BluKip?

[TightEnd]

good grief

the latest ashcroft constituency polls

just published

Click to see full-size image.

[DMorgan]

Who are BluKip?

A possible Tory, UKIP, DUP right-leaning coalition or I suppose more likely UKIP and the DUP lending support to a Tory minority government

[redsimon]

good grief

the latest ashcroft constituency polls

just published

Click to see full-size image.

What % of respondents said don't know/wouldn't say though?

[TightEnd]

good grief

the latest ashcroft constituency polls

just published

Click to see full-size image.

What % of respondents said don't know/wouldn't say though?

full tables and analysis at http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/latest-scottish-constituency-polling/

haven't looked at them all but in jim murphy's seat don't knows are 8%

.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Paisley-Renfrewshire-South-April-2015-Full-tables..pdf

[redsimon]

I heard a Scottish Labour MP say 40% undecided voters , which I thought way too high, though if there's a much lower turnout that in Indyref that's possible?