UK General Election 2015

[George2Loose]

I would love to see what the vote would be if the form said

[  ] Carry on as we are

[  ] Allow the Scottish party, who don't want to be part of the UK, to have a large influence over the next 4 years

Nice impartial voting form there. Not loaded at all

[George2Loose]

We need PR. If there ever was a time to introduce it, it's now.

FPTP was always popular because you formed one cohesive strong government. That is not happening now. I wonder if either of the two main parties will be brave enough to introduce it. I highly doubt it. So flawed in a way that politicians and the system can prevent people from voting for who they want/voting at all

[dakky]

Think Labour have gone favourite with the bookies to form a government

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Though I think labour minority have been favourites for a while

[TightEnd]

labour pm has just gone >50% today on the electionsetc forecasts

are labour losing more projected seats total or has it stayed similar?

going up compared to 2010

they would be a majority government, on english forecasts, if they retained their scottish seats

but scotland looks to be a labour disaster, so minority government virtually certain

the con-lib numbers don't work because of the lib likely halving of seats



majority 323
con 270
lab 270
snp 50
lib 30
green 1
ukip 5 (say)

so 270+50 gets close for lab/snp

270+30+5 gets nowhere near for likely conservative coalitions
hence the favourite at bookies is labour minority government, milibandd pm (favourite for the first time this morning)

[TightEnd]

We need PR. If there ever was a time to introduce it, it's now.

FPTP was always popular because you formed one cohesive strong government. That is not happening now. I wonder if either of the two main parties will be brave enough to introduce it. I highly doubt it. So flawed in a way that politicians and the system can prevent people from voting for who they want/voting at all

PR was beaten in the referendum in the last parliament, which was introduced at the behest of the LDs as part of the coalition agreement

i agree that decades of messy minority government would increase pressure for somethign other than FPTP but its way too soon as both lab and con are anti, and its not likely to be a coalition agreement sticking point this time round, so soon after the last vote

[dakky]

Think Labour have gone favourite with the bookies to form a government

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Though I think labour minority have been favourites for a while

Dropped to 2.68 - 2.70 since I posted!

[dakky]

labour pm has just gone >50% today on the electionsetc forecasts

are labour losing more projected seats total or has it stayed similar?

going up compared to 2010

they would be a majority government, on english forecasts, if they retained their scottish seats

but scotland looks to be a labour disaster, so minority government virtually certain

the con-lib numbers don't work because of the lib likely halving of seats



majority 323
con 270
lab 270
snp 50
lib 30
green 1
ukip 5 (say)

so 270+50 gets close for lab/snp

270+30+5 gets nowhere near for likely conservative coalitions
hence the favourite at bookies is labour minority government, milibandd pm (favourite for the first time this morning)

Yes I understand the scotland disaster...

But what you have said as 270 seats for labour and con each doesn't tally with the graphic projecting 292 con/260 lab... that's what I don't quite get?

[dakky]

WRT to trident, could we keep the deterrent with 1-2 subs instead of the 4 they are saying we "need"? and kind of meet in the middle with it? I genuinely don't know enough about it

[TightEnd]

labour pm has just gone >50% today on the electionsetc forecasts

are labour losing more projected seats total or has it stayed similar?

going up compared to 2010

they would be a majority government, on english forecasts, if they retained their scottish seats

but scotland looks to be a labour disaster, so minority government virtually certain

the con-lib numbers don't work because of the lib likely halving of seats



majority 323
con 270
lab 270
snp 50
lib 30
green 1
ukip 5 (say)

so 270+50 gets close for lab/snp

270+30+5 gets nowhere near for likely conservative coalitions
hence the favourite at bookies is labour minority government, milibandd pm (favourite for the first time this morning)

Yes I understand the scotland disaster...

But what you have said as 270 seats for labour and con each doesn't tally with the graphic projecting 292 con/260 lab... that's what I don't quite get?

it depends what assumptions you put in. different forecasting models do it differently

all we can say at the moment is that the two major parties are set to win 260-300 each

most forecasts are in the middle of this

this page is very useful http://may2015.com/ , the "who will win" section

here you can see a range fo forecasts, and input your own assumptions

[bobAlike]

WRT to trident, could we keep the deterrent with 1-2 subs instead of the 4 they are saying we "need"? and kind of meet in the middle with it? I genuinely don't know enough about it

The world is a big place. Don't think even 3 would be an option as 1 always needs to be in for maintenance.

[AdamM]

We need PR. If there ever was a time to introduce it, it's now.

FPTP was always popular because you formed one cohesive strong government. That is not happening now. I wonder if either of the two main parties will be brave enough to introduce it. I highly doubt it. So flawed in a way that politicians and the system can prevent people from voting for who they want/voting at all

PR was beaten in the referendum in the last parliament, which was introduced at the behest of the LDs as part of the coalition agreement

i agree that decades of messy minority government would increase pressure for somethign other than FPTP but its way too soon as both lab and con are anti, and its not likely to be a coalition agreement sticking point this time round, so soon after the last vote

It was Alternative Vote that was rejected in the 2011 referendum, not a full Proportional Representation system.
I'm not an expert, but I believe there are significant differences.

[Jon MW]

We need PR. If there ever was a time to introduce it, it's now.

FPTP was always popular because you formed one cohesive strong government. That is not happening now. I wonder if either of the two main parties will be brave enough to introduce it. I highly doubt it. So flawed in a way that politicians and the system can prevent people from voting for who they want/voting at all

PR was beaten in the referendum in the last parliament, which was introduced at the behest of the LDs as part of the coalition agreement

i agree that decades of messy minority government would increase pressure for somethign other than FPTP but its way too soon as both lab and con are anti, and its not likely to be a coalition agreement sticking point this time round, so soon after the last vote

It was Alternative Vote that was rejected in the 2011 referendum, not a full Proportional Representation system.
I'm not an expert, but I believe there are significant differences.

I suspect that the number of people who voted against AV but would have voted for one of the other systems of PR was likely to be a fairly inconsequential number.

Most people were either for or against PR, and a lot of people in favour of PR would have voted for it because it would be easier to change from one form of PR to another rather than changing from FPTP to PR.

[TightEnd]

We need PR. If there ever was a time to introduce it, it's now.

FPTP was always popular because you formed one cohesive strong government. That is not happening now. I wonder if either of the two main parties will be brave enough to introduce it. I highly doubt it. So flawed in a way that politicians and the system can prevent people from voting for who they want/voting at all

PR was beaten in the referendum in the last parliament, which was introduced at the behest of the LDs as part of the coalition agreement

i agree that decades of messy minority government would increase pressure for somethign other than FPTP but its way too soon as both lab and con are anti, and its not likely to be a coalition agreement sticking point this time round, so soon after the last vote

It was Alternative Vote that was rejected in the 2011 referendum, not a full Proportional Representation system.
I'm not an expert, but I believe there are significant differences.

there are, i was being lazy

AV referendum was rejected

[TightEnd]

this is well worth a read

i spotted a tweet last night which said

"Wealth creation didn’t rate a mention in TV debate"

which, when i watched was certainly true. lots of talk of spending, though!

and this is the article that followed

http://www.capx.co/wealth-creation-didnt-rate-a-mention-in-tv-election-debate-horror-show/

[George2Loose]

I'm not being patronising but it should just be introduced- not via referendum and I believe the AV voting system is pretty terrible form of PR