Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

Do you think Ireland are a bet today at a shade over evens? I certainly wouldn't back the French as I thought they were fairly inept, and they have made 4 more changes. If I knew Sean O'Brien was fully fit I would be fairly confident.

Yes, though the six day turnaround is a worry

6 changes for the French. Just as well their selection policy is consistent

[TightEnd]

there is a £150k 22 runner 5 places e/w 1/4 hurdle at newbury today at 3.35pm

it might look impossible, but is an interesting shape of race for e/w no?

any strong thoughts

[DropTheHammer]

Norwich v West Ham

Norwich: 2.5 (Best odds)
West Ham: 3.1

How can 18th place Norwich be a favourite for this match, West Ham are 6th and the league doesn't lie at this stage of proceedings!

In comparison, 7th place Southampton are away at 16th place Swansea
Swansea: 3.3
Southampton: 2.5

West Ham's odds lengthened after they dumped Liverpool out of the FA Cup on Tuesday and went all the way out to 3.25 at B365 and Victor (so I had a good-sized bet). They've now come in a little but I stiill can't see how Norwich are favourites. Both teams have some injury issues.

Thoughts?

[DropTheHammer]

double post

[Doobs]

Norwich v West Ham

Norwich: 2.5 (Best odds)
West Ham: 3.1

How can 18th place Norwich be a favourite for this match, West Ham are 6th and the league doesn't lie at this stage of proceedings!

In comparison, 7th place Southampton are away at 16th place Swansea
Swansea: 3.3
Southampton: 2.5

West Ham's odds lengthened after they dumped Liverpool out of the FA Cup on Tuesday and went all the way out to 3.25 at B365 and Victor (so I had a good-sized bet). They've now come in a little but I stiill can't see how Norwich are favourites. Both teams have some injury issues.

Thoughts?

Have already backed West Ham and Stoke.  I was thinking much the same, but would never put West Ham shorter than Norwich.  I Haven't backed them, but Swansea look too big too. 

I have also backed Neil's two from Tighty's weekly article elsewhere.  There are probably a few others can be backed in that race at fifth first 4, but haven't had time to check yet. 

[Karabiner]

there is a £150k 22 runner 5 places e/w 1/4 hurdle at newbury today at 3.35pm

it might look impossible, but is an interesting shape of race for e/w no?

any strong thoughts

Tom Segal has just the four selections in this.

[rinswun]

I also backed West Ham yesterday. All stats point to a comfortable away win.

[Karabiner]

I can only assume that the 120 minutes played midweek is a factor.

[TightEnd]

I can only assume that the 120 minutes played midweek is a factor.

in particular Payet played 120 minutes and was out on his feet for the last 20.

[BigAdz]

Morning.

Wouldn't mind chucking a couple of darts at the Betfair. As Ralph pointed out Mr Seagull has 4, and there is room for a couple more after this.

First one is a horse I thought was being prepared for a Festival handicap, but he turns up here and its a massive price.
Champagne at Tara has so far looked a bit of a rogue, having run out 4/5 races back, but since then seems to be on the upgrade and has form on this sort of ground. Last time out he ran at Cheltenham in the race won by Solstice Star, and he travelled very well, but looked inexperienced when coasting up round the bottom bend. He was a big price that day too, and Richie McLernon wasn't what I would call hard on him, and I suspect it was all part of his education process.
As stated, I thought the run was a sighter for the festival, to show him the course etc, but at 66-1 today, if I have chosen the wrong day I would be sick. JP is often known to have a strong fav turned over by one of these progressive rags in the race, but at the price we can take a chance.

The second is one of my and Markys old favourites from the Hobbs stable.
Cheltenain has been place in this twice before already and while he is off his highest mark yet, and topweight, he still has plenty in his favour. Course and distance form, ground form and the most important thing is this is the first year the Hobbs have had him sound for a good stretch and they have him bouncing at home. Again, if Dickie J had chosen him, he would be half the price. 40-1 was about 15 points more than I ever dreamed of.

No need to go mad at the price so £5/10 ew each

Cheltanian Sb/Lads/Hlls  40-1
Champagne everywhere 66-1. GL
Champagne

[hhyftrftdr]

No good for here but Skybet are paying 5 places in that 3.35 race.

Edit....though that might be the same across the board, haven't looked 

[TightEnd]

No good for here but Skybet are paying 5 places in that 3.35 race.

Edit....though that might be the same across the board, haven't looked 

many places are, but thanks

[TightEnd]

        Bet Type: Single
            Norwich v West Ham Match Prices
                West Ham 41/20
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 61.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    20.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 20.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 61.00 GBP

[TightEnd]

Morning.

Wouldn't mind chucking a couple of darts at the Betfair. As Ralph pointed out Mr Seagull has 4, and there is room for a couple more after this.

First one is a horse I thought was being prepared for a Festival handicap, but he turns up here and its a massive price.
Champagne at Tara has so far looked a bit of a rogue, having run out 4/5 races back, but since then seems to be on the upgrade and has form on this sort of ground. Last time out he ran at Cheltenham in the race won by Solstice Star, and he travelled very well, but looked inexperienced when coasting up round the bottom bend. He was a big price that day too, and Richie McLernon wasn't what I would call hard on him, and I suspect it was all part of his education process.
As stated, I thought the run was a sighter for the festival, to show him the course etc, but at 66-1 today, if I have chosen the wrong day I would be sick. JP is often known to have a strong fav turned over by one of these progressive rags in the race, but at the price we can take a chance.

The second is one of my and Markys old favourites from the Hobbs stable.
Cheltenain has been place in this twice before already and while he is off his highest mark yet, and topweight, he still has plenty in his favour. Course and distance form, ground form and the most important thing is this is the first year the Hobbs have had him sound for a good stretch and they have him bouncing at home. Again, if Dickie J had chosen him, he would be half the price. 40-1 was about 15 points more than I ever dreamed of.

No need to go mad at the price so £5/10 ew each

Cheltanian Sb/Lads/Hlls  40-1
Champagne everywhere 66-1. GL
Champagne

Newbury 15:35
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5   Champagne At Tara   66/1   
Total stake   £ 15.00
Estimated return   £ 633.75
Full stake   £ 15.00
Full estimated return   £ 633.75

Cheltenian Newbury 15:35 Winner
40/1 Each Way (5 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £390.00

[JohnCharver]

Morning.

Wouldn't mind chucking a couple of darts at the Betfair. As Ralph pointed out Mr Seagull has 4, and there is room for a couple more after this.

First one is a horse I thought was being prepared for a Festival handicap, but he turns up here and its a massive price.
Champagne at Tara has so far looked a bit of a rogue, having run out 4/5 races back, but since then seems to be on the upgrade and has form on this sort of ground. Last time out he ran at Cheltenham in the race won by Solstice Star, and he travelled very well, but looked inexperienced when coasting up round the bottom bend. He was a big price that day too, and Richie McLernon wasn't what I would call hard on him, and I suspect it was all part of his education process.
As stated, I thought the run was a sighter for the festival, to show him the course etc, but at 66-1 today, if I have chosen the wrong day I would be sick. JP is often known to have a strong fav turned over by one of these progressive rags in the race, but at the price we can take a chance.

The second is one of my and Markys old favourites from the Hobbs stable.
Cheltenain has been place in this twice before already and while he is off his highest mark yet, and topweight, he still has plenty in his favour. Course and distance form, ground form and the most important thing is this is the first year the Hobbs have had him sound for a good stretch and they have him bouncing at home. Again, if Dickie J had chosen him, he would be half the price. 40-1 was about 15 points more than I ever dreamed of.

No need to go mad at the price so £5/10 ew each

Cheltanian Sb/Lads/Hlls  40-1
Champagne everywhere 66-1. GL
Champagne

Have done champagne at Tara as well, like low weights, for the win part anyway and jockey bookings a lovely spare. Big fan of modus maybe not his ground. Had a bet on a few but biggest on agraparts form is working out really well.