blonde poker forum

Not a rival to Tips for Tikay but feel Mr Tight End deserves his own dedicated thread which could obviously work in conjunction with TFT

I am not the first to notice the amount of work & research that he puts in to his recommendations and with it the constant stream of winners produced . These selections sometimes get lost in the TFT thread so they definitely need a vehicle for exposure , especially with there being so much hidden value in the lower football leagues (which I know he studies closely) and other sports such as cricket.

I think the winning formula for this is to use bigger stakes & bet less frequently , so I propose the following  ........

1   Tighty to recomend up to 2 bets per week (Monday to Sunday)

2   Stakes to be selected by Tighty  £50  , £100 , £200 or £300 (dependent on price and strength of selection)

3   Running Total ( Profit or Loss ) to be updated by Tighty weekly.

4   Option of a second stake and separate balance sheet for ante post/long term bets if needed

5   The Pros and Cons of Tightys selections can of course be discussed here by everybody but this thread is for his selections only so as not to get bogged down with other peoples tips and events


As yet he knows nothing about this but Im sure with some encouragement from Blonde Members he will relish the challenge.

So Rich over to you .....   No Pressure   :)

Nothing like peer pressure! Common rich I need some money for Christmas ;)

!

Gulp

Pressures on

Great idea Fraser!

Great idea!

Get the LOT Rich...

great idea, Tighty is on fire.

Good thread but plz keep the cricket bets to a minimum if poss

Footy and NFL by all means, good shout on Sheff Utd this weekend, was easy.

Come on Tighty get on with it :)  I'm matching your bets blow for blow on my own account as I'm convinced you'll be a long term winner.

Um ok.

I don't think this will be a high volume thread

Fraser was asking for a couple of tips a week. Which I will post, if I see any, on tikay (because I want that thread to do well), here and sometimes back on Nits (because I want to spin £10 into £500 repeatedly, current attempt at £131 with two steps to go)


Lower league football, NFL, Rugby Union, Baseball (where my light is firmly hid under an off-season bushel) and maybe a bit of cricket the main stuff.


Cue the losing run......

and I am not a £50 to £300 bettor so I will work it as

Bank of 100 units

Bets on a scale of 1 -5 units, 5 =Max

and do a tally

If people are mad enough to follow, they can decide what their own unit is.

Please delete the cue the losing run line immediately...Karma


hang on a sec...ive created a format....with great planning...people can pro rota accordingly ...stick with the money stake (Units no good) please so people can see tangible profit or loss

Units suck...Its your party but my format si vous plait

You will sir, you will. Incred close on the first bullet!

Not so easy when the chips are down.

Looking forward to this.

Won't make any difference to me. Take my ROI very seriously!

I have one for tomorrow, will write it up then

My units, as Fraser wants me to do it in £, will go from £10 to a £50 max


I suppose I had better get my tenners on before Fraser goes winging in.....

Keep the cricket bets coming, I enjoy your analysis.

yeah to me the analysis is the best bit. Enjoy the analysis more than the actual result.

Any thoughts on the final test. India still favorites. With draw and England seeming to be level pegging.
How do you think the toss will affect this match? If England win do you think Draw/England becomes favorite or just shifts in slightly. Ali Cook is 0/5 in Toss's won! He has to choose right this time surely impossible to lose 6 coin filps!

I'm an advocate that more often than not a Non League team gets one chance to beat a League team in the FA Cup. Ideally for betting purposes you want the non-league team at home, then losing the replay but it can often work the other way round too, with the league team typically priced longer than it should be having not won first time round

There's one tonight

Hereford v Cheltenham

Cheltenham are 7/5

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/hereford-v-cheltenham/winner

The first match finished 1-1 at Whaddon Road. Cheltenham were 8/13 for that

I signed up to Robins player (£4.49 a month, must remember to cancel!) and watched the highlights, and they confirmed what the post match reports said

Cheltenham took the lead, Hereford equalised then parked a bus.


Hereford are under it. Struggling financially, they only managed to put 5 of 7 subs on the bench for the first leg....Just getting this replay is important news for them

The prize for the winners is a home tie with Everton. Cheltenham will not be complacent. They are a big powerful team. Six players over 6 ft 2, with a little bit of impish class in Jermaine McGlashan

Don't see them being bullied out of it at Edgar Street (convex shaped stand at the home end, and a side stand which overhangs the pitch. Quite the viewing experience)

I have them Evens at worst for this

Cheltenham 3rd in League 2, Hereford half way up the conference but in decent form


For me for the purposes of this I have £10 at 7/5 Coral, ie smallest unit

I also have £131.10 for a Nits thread bet on it, hence the small unit for this thread


Game must be a weather doubt, but we will see

BET RECEIPT
Bet(s) Placed Successfully
 
BET 1
 
Selection 1
 
Selection Cheltenham Town @ 2.40 
Market
 Win/Draw/Win
 
Event
 English FA Cup
Hereford United v Cheltenham Town
2012-12-11 19:45:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £300.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £300.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-12-11 11:45:26
 

Win or Lose No Problem....I have faith

cripes

Start a thread for hector or Doobs or various others next time Fraser!

Wow, blondes via various threads have a few quid on Cheltenham tonight!  Good luck guys

!!!

Fraser,

If you don't mind me asking.....


Tighty gave a MINIMUM bet of £10, & you stuck £300 on! 

So, if Tighty goes for a Maximum (£50) how much will you bet?

Feeling the pressure much, Rich? ;)

Just a bit

Its easier when its your money.

 ::)

Quality line that.

I actually think that you spend my money with as much care as you spend your own, & you suggest stakes accordingly.

£10 = £300  so  £50 =£1500 of course  :)

Ill judge them on all on  merit to be honest...... Like this bet and wanted to get the thread rolling

As I said Love your analysis  ,research & Logic especially on the lower league football

Dont feel pressured win or lose I /everybody can take a view , make their own decision and stake accordingly  , I just feel long term your selections will be in profit.

No Problem regardless of the outcome

This made me laugh!!! ;)

Top tekkers I've had a little bet as well so fingers crossed!

Cheltenham on the drift 2.60 now, any reason for this? Has the team bus got a puncture or what?

Just got 2.64 laid pretty easily.  Hoping there is nothing in it obviously

Did write a longish post out, but fell asleep and lost it when battery died. Basically, I think Hereford will win. Hope I'm wrong and the thread gets off to a flyer. glglgl

bck into 2.4

Is it usual for members to post bet evidence.....or is this a bit of dick swinging?!

Don't see anything wrong with it. Better than someone posting on the thread pretending to have lumped a load of money on a bet.

+1

Thats what makes tikays thread work well, proof of bet.

Really ? 

Get with the thread guys and feel the vibe

Fair enough. But I thought it was Tightys thread, just to post his points staking? I dont need/want to know what everyone else has done

Anyway, ignore me, I've always had inadequacy issues! ;D

Its the embodiment of a forum.... everybody together etc cheering on a plan / idea (win or lose).... no Big Time agenda !

Smiling and positive community spirit is what makes it work   :)

I'm easy, people post what they want

criticise the bets, give angles I have not seen. All good

Personally I need to get my head round someone following on from me for £300. I know its down to them and not to me how much they want to bet, and its nice someone wants to follow in, but the sense of responsibility :-)   

Its sort of what I was alluding to. in my ham fisted way. Puts the tipper under some undue pressure knowing whats at stake.

I've put a fiver on.
Sorry if tht upsets anyone.

In the case of TfT, yes, without an audit trail, &/or proof of bet, that thread would have no credibility. Or at least, less than it has.....

We can PROVE we are losers. ;)

But this thread is Tightys tips, so punters that have faith in him will invest.

Thats what tipsters are for.

BOOOOOM big man, 1-0 43 min

:(:(:(

shrug, disappointed to hear Cheltenham sat back so much second half

Running total  -£10

on with the show......

No Probs Rich...good info...just got ul with wayward Hereford goal

going deepish in stars 100r to make amends...fingers crossed

looking forward to the next tip  :)

This looks like an exciting new thread ! Will be interesting to see how it goes! Good luck all

Of course Cheltenham win for rubs  >:(

might be short lived!

good luck!

inevitable.....

Standard   :)

I'm a little ignorant of bookie betting. If you bet for Cheltenham to win and they do, but in extra time, it only accounts for what the score is at the end of 90 minutes?

Morning George,

Correct, unless you bet "to qualify" or whatever.

If you recall the odds when you placed the bet, it would have had three prices - Hereford win, Cheltenham win, & Draw. A draw is only possible after 90 minutes.

Bear in mind that you get much better prices for 90 minutes (including the draw) then you do for "qualify", so it cuts both ways.

I best not get Fraser's thread off-topic or he'll tell me off, but I'll try & write something in my Diary about the efforts by you & your staff on Saturday.

Was sincere wasn't meant to be offending irrelevant of Cheltenham result? Just in case I got wrong end of stick!

my bet for this weekend is Rochdale to win at Aldershot

Best price is 7/4 at Bet365 and I have £25 on

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/aldershot-v-rochdale/winner

Aldershot have won 1 of 10 games at home, losing 7. Lowest scorers in the League at home, 3 goals

Rochdale have won 5 of 10 away, only losing 3


Rochdale have however lost three on the trot, which probably accounts for being 7/4 in a spot. They badly need a win to stay on the coat tails of the play-offs

Last week Rochdale lost 3-2 at home to Exeter, having been 3-0 down and down to 10 men. They had 67% possession in that match.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20564884

I'll take my chances that 7/4 is a decent price here given the poor quality of the opposition.


This will be going on the Nits thread/Tips4tikay tomorrow if 7/4 remains

note to self

http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/tranmere-rovers-fc/tranmere-rovers-news/2012/12/13/tranmere-rovers-fc-boss-ronnie-moore-calls-for-a-return-to-clean-sheets-at-sheffield-united-100252-32417549/

Moore calculates he will have just enough fit senior players to fill the team sheet on Saturday.


Look for Sheff U at Evens if they get there

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/sheffield-utd-v-tranmere/winner

note to self

Under 44.5

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/cincinnati-bengals-at-philadelphia-eagles/total-points

Eagles only scored more than 23 points once in 11 games

Poor OL, rookie QB up against Geno Atkins, missing Jackson and Maclin (?), limits points scoring potential more tonight

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/12/13/3tfo-bengals-eagles-week-15/

Bengals 20,19 last two weeks up against Philly D front. Strong. Can OL protect?

Good Stuff Rich & Thanks

Ill have a look at them all tonight..somebody had called me about the Sheff Utd game earlier...the price on them could shorten with the opposition team news

Cheers Tighty

gone for a nitty double

Rochdale 11/10 (DNB) and Sheffield 10/11

gl us  :)

Decided against. Was close to doing it though

Smashed into this @ Evens.... im told Utd are full strength and Tranmere are struggling for 1st team players...looks big

On this at well £22 at !1o/11 Bet365

Had a nibble @15/8 on Rochdale but main bet is Sheff Utd to beat Tranmere @Evens

Sheff U my only hope...

Start off 0 for 3 and -£60

Downswing.

fyp

Well I'm in now and hooked I'm ready for the up swing!

Chin up, onwards an upwards from now m8.

Notes for the weekend

Cleveland +13.5 at Denver

Minnesota +9 at Houston



Hartlepool 2-1 home to Portsmouth?

Fleetwood 2-1 at Oxford, and BTTS

? Bristol Rovers/John Ward 3-1 home to Rotherham

Write ups to follow if I plunge after research

Kevin Pullein did an in-depth investigation into the "new manager effect" a couple of years ago

Unless there are other factors in play, he found that the whole thing was a myth and teams perform almost at exactly the same level as they did with the old manager, especially in the first couple of games.

Yes I am aware of that. I went a bit early on the theme this season with Bury, Blackwell had no effect in the first few games but after that the turn in results at some reasonable prices (which I was watching, not backing) got me to thinking about looking at each of these as they happen

I know Bristol R are very suspect at the back, the question was whether 3-1 at home against Rotherham gave anything to go at.

£20 Cricketbetlive

MS Dhoni Over 26.5 at 1.9

1 pt per run

10 pts per catch

25 pts per stumping

https://www.cricketbetlive.com/betting.asp?whichone=all&eventid=48843

Reckon its completely the wrong quote

If it were a spreadbetting quote as in my bad old days, I'd be on the overs per point

Shudder


thanks to Mr Picken for the pointer to look at it

Meanwhile I have dismissed Bristol R and Hartlepool

Like the look of Fleetwood at Oxford but apparently the pitch at the Kassam is torn up by London Welsh, and is a leveller, bobbling around the ankles etc.

Oxford do concede from a lot of set-pieces, and Fleetwood are the better team, but don't like it being played on a ploughed field

So perhaps not that either


Doesn't look a great lower league weekend to me, I must say. Taking another look later

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20781987

Who are cricketbetlive ?Rich...can you get on & will they pay out etc ?

They are quite a big company, solid & reputable apparently, & I'm assured by good judges (especially including redarmi, also by the Gent who first recommended them to us) they are perfectly sound.

If you want to withdraw cash though, you'll need to send ID etc.

Their markets for this afternoon are here.....

https://www.cricketbetlive.com/betting.asp?whichone=all&eventid=48843

As tikay said, it looks like a nice find

I'm only small ball, in £10 and £20 stakes and seems fine

Not withdrawn yet though :-)

i have never used cricket bet live

but no plenty of massive cricket players who do everyday and they dont limit bets apparently

would not have a worry using them

Spread betting quote would have to be higher because of the nature of the bet and mean vs median. I'm really torn, I like the CBL are better than 365 line but the Dhoni price just stinks

Ok ...Thanks for The Info Guys

Need to open account

Not running so good

Dhoni drops a catch for 10 points

then scores 24 not out coming in at 7

;-)  a bit off form, same as on tikay's thread in December, coinciding with the start of this one!

Blonde would be wealthier if Fraser had gone for Tips by TL900! Its just variance, really ul today, despite my thoughts on CBL i would have got on if I hadn't been dog walking for the toss! Some dodge. Hope you can find something for the weekend!

Keep The Faith !

Fairly sick Tranmere ship 5-0 hammering at Swindon, less than a week after thread unsuccessfully opposed them.
Variance.

Rochdale hammered Cheltenham 4-1 too

I am on a week's lag!!

Tranmere only just got a team out tonight. Shakes head.

Tighty,

I'm on Wycombe at 11/5 against Bradford. I think Wycombe are over priced having won 4 out of last 6. Bradford played alot of games recently.

And D&R at 15/8 at Morecambe. I tipped D&R 2 weeks ago and they didn't win but had them at Bristol Rovers last week. Still like them at that price.

Bad weather in the US North and Midwest

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20849242

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20847644

the second article forecasts 18 inches of snow on the East coast in the next 24 hours...

bobby1 betting territory


I have been following closely the prospects for Dallas at Washington

Before the bad weather came the outdoor stadium in Washington was not covered. The field is currently covered in Snow. A Dallas fan might say that it is in Washington's interests, playing an indoor team in a must win match, to slow them down....

Dallas are an indoor team that has not played in bad weather all year

Washington's quarterback RG3 is a dangerous runner but is playing after a recent strained cruciate ligament. In last week's game against the Eagles he stood in the pocket and did not move around (his modus operandi and his threat) at all

Dallas struggle to run because the offensive line is sub par

Add to all this, its winner take all. Winner wins the division and goes to the play offs. The loser is probably out of the playoffs

The points spread is http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/dallas-cowboys-at-washington-redskins/total-points

This hasn't adjusted lower for

- conditions
- Washington quarterback unable to run effectively
- Dallas running game difficulties

I would suggest the right pivot price might be 10 points lower come game time, as it adjusts for the weather

£30 under 48.5 Bet365 10/11.

under 49.5 at hills and Sky Rich ?

yes, betting where I have funds

ok mate...but every point counts  :)  ok on 'under 49.5  gl us and thanks

Good pick Tighty, as usual.
Another plus for the unders is that the 'skins defense has got wayyyy better the last few weeks

While I agree the line doesn't account for the changed weather conditions, I would argue RG3's knee condition definitely is factored in the price.

ON...gl us :)

Burton v Southend League 2 tomorrow

Over 3 goals Bet365 9/4

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/burton-v-southend/total-goals


Burton have three strikers/midfielders with a combined 26 goals, Zola, Billy Kee and Maghoma.

They average over 2 goals every home game over 12 games this season

I have had them in goals galore coupons most weeks as they play One of the three goalscorers in midfield, with two wingers and generally play open at home. This was evident to me when I saw their playing pattern in a pre-season match and then at Leicester in the League Cup. They go for it.

Southend have Rastafish's son and Assombalonga with 26 goals combined

They average over 2 goals away from home over 12 away games this season


The Bet365 price is 9/4 over 3 goals when all other market setters only offer that price for over 4 goals...

I have had a small interest, £15, in the above, in my break the thread's duck stakes!
 

Close of December

1 win from 6 bets

balance -£67.83 from £125 wagered


Off the board, at least.

ok Januaray the 1st fast aproaching we need a football win bet tomorrow to lump an start the year wt a bang !

Tighty,

I'm on Bristol Rovers today at 23/11. You mentioned them I think in the last ten days.

New manager and they have signed 3 loanees who all improve their squad. John Joe O'Toole will be good at this level, the keeper Milldenhall has been on loan at Scunny in L1 and they've signed a young kid from QPR.

Plymouth aren't pulling any trees up.

I like BR's chances at that price.

Saw the loanees, John Ward's Colchester connections paying off

I am still watching BR, got word after I mentioned them on here that its a massive job to turn them round, squad in turmoil etc etc, don't expect a quick pick up etc etc

Yes, they were certainly in turmoil - I opposed them against D&R after reading up on them and had a look at their fans forums.

I'm sure its a big job, just think they should be shorter than 23/11 given the new manager and loanees.

We'll see.

Good call Rick

Did you see the game against Burton Albion this weekend. Just seen Nathan Stanton up at school and he can hardly walk and has a massive black eye. I asked him if he'd been playing Sunday league and he said City had battered Burton and he got a battering too. Wondered if you'd seen anything.

No I was updating at DTD so didn't see it or go I am afraid

Notts County to beat Portsmouth this weekend 21/20 BetVictor £20

This is the only market price that does not have County odds on against a free-falling Pompey. Thought I had better hurry up, as I don't expect it to last.

County haven't been in great form, but since Appleton let for Blackpool Pompey are all over the place.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20946060

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20889852

Feel a bit sorry for Pompey fans tbh.

Having to bring in players like Mendez-Laing shows the state they're in and I'm with you 100% on this one.

For those that watch the pennies, William Hill go 11/10 on this.

In 12 league games Ashton Gate has seen 53 goals, more than any other Championship ground

Leicester can bang them in, when the flair players click. Goal Difference this season +21 with 6-0 and 6-1 on their slate, but can give away a soft goal at any time

Crucially Bristol C have lost Danns who was on loan from us, to a loan at Huddersfield. He helped their form pick up considerably and protected that back four in December 

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/bristol-city-v-leicester/over-under-4.5

Banzai £10 over 4.5 goals Bet365 Bristol C v Leicester

For those that watch the pennies, Sporting Bet go 5/1 on this.

;)

lol, I can only go where I have an account (unless I want to open more accounts, and "employ" someone to do a daily spreadsheet for me, which I would need)

Ha! You need a Jeeves.

I was not dissing, just pointing out a better price. Keith shouts at me if I miss a zillionth of a point.

Are you watching any football anywhere today tighty or is it a kids day?

At home today. GCSE exam revision, supervisory role.

Back in the old days it would have been the away end at Ashton Gate with several pies and a notebook to jot down characteristics of the ground's topography.

important times. Do they still have mocks?

yes. and re-takes :-)

Bet365 £50 Under 2.5 goals Leicester v Middlesborough, as per tips 4 tikay

Will get on later! Good luck us!

force majeure

I wouldn't now, players running to the game, abandoned cars, delayed coaches

changes things. Bull in a china shop here was on before this happened

 no Panic!

After a fortunate unders bet comes in for the thread max

2 wins from 8 bets

balance -£17.83 from £185 wagered

Well done Tighty!

Not sure how I missed that on TfT, but I did.

Castres v Ulster under 35.5 points 10/11 £25 bET365

Castres only scored 69 points in 5 games

Ulster virtually qualified, need a conservative win. Won't be throwing it around

Current weather is wet, with 22mph winds

Got to be unders.


I also have £2 (lol) the draw at 18-1

on :)

Castres 8 Ulster 9

Wins hard held, just about the perfect game

After a bad start (-£110), thread goes into profit

3 wins from 10 bets, profit £2.90(!) from £212 invested

Congrats Tighty.

Thank you sir

Is it this sort of sic brag and Tikays £550 profit for the year that has got Alex wanting to be the next Tony Bloom now.
You old boys should be ashamed of yourselves leading that young boy astray. :)

Leicester v Toulouse this afternoon

Banzai

The pitch has been protected by a big tent all week, with hot air blown under it



However the pitch has to be clear for 1.30pm, and it is snowing hard and forecast to do so most of the day

By kick off the pitch will be covered

Soon into the match it will cut up

Points will be at a premium

It's going to be tight and tense independent of the weather, as the winner makes the Heineken quarters, the loser is out


The "Unders" price has been adjusted lower to 32.5/33.5 so the scope for that bet is reduced.

As I expect this to be a score either way, and a forward battle

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-toulouse/highest-scoring-half

£5 Paddy Power: Highest scoring Half: Draw at 17-1

Scores of 12-12,15-15,18-15 etc very possible here

£5 Paddy Power: Draw at 20-1

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-toulouse/winner


note Bet365 are not best price for these

£25 under 49.5 AFC Championship game Bet 365 10/11

Knew you were +EV  well done...

on this AFC unders with you

Wins

4 wins from 12 bets, profit £15.62 from £247 invested

ROI 6.32%

Thanks again sir.

I know nothing about these last two sports we have won on.

Happy to hang on the coat tails of your conviction though.

+1  well done Mr +EV

Top stuff Rich.

England play the 4th ODI Cricket against India tomorrow

They are 2-1 down after playing poorly in the last two games

The fifth ODI at Dharamsala is in doubt due to....

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BBL_uEJCYAAm8H8.jpg:large)


This match is being played in the Punjab at Mohali. Traditionally it is the most seamer friendly ground in India.

It also tends to favour the side batting first. 14 of 20 ODIs have been won by the side batting first. Why? The games are day-night and batting second under lights in dewy conditions is tough.

So

- this is a "toss" match

- conditions favour England more than most Indian grounds

In a toss match, the underdog can often represent value as you are offered a "price" on a team that can get the best of conditions.....


Add to that the current situation in Mohali (playing a tour in the Indian winter...)

Quotes

"The prevailing extreme cold conditions in north India may affect the fourth India-England One-day International in Mohali on Wednesday with the nearby Shivalik and other ranges currently covered with snow.

The cold weather has affected the growth of grass in the outfield and on the pitch square. Due to the adverse conditions the ground is looking brownish, which is starkly different from the traditional lush green outfield at the Punjab Cricket Association (PCA) Stadium, said a top official.

"Since it's been snowing on the hills near Mohali, it has impacted this city too. It rained here day before and that has left moisture on the ground. We need bright sunshine to dry up the ground," PCA joint secretary GS Walia told Mail Today.

"Due to cold conditions, pacers are expected to exploit the conditions that will help them move the ball appreciably. Since it is a daynight encounter, batsmen would find it difficult to cope with swinging deliveries especially in the second innings, which would be played in the evening when the temperature drops further," points out another PCA official.

( http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/england-vs-india-pacers-may-exploit-cold-conditions-at-mohali-odi/1/243074.html )


These are essentially two evenly matched teams, but conditions here should suit England's bowlers, and neutralise the Indian batting which generally does best on dry flat tracks, and the Indian spinners who England have some difficulites with

Because England have lost two in a row they are 6/4 underdogs

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/odi-series/india-v-england-%5B4th-odi%5D/winner

Win the toss, they are odds-on

Lose the toss, and you have chances anyway, particularly for Steven Finn, to make 6/4 a sporting price because of conditions.


Recommendation

£25 win England at 6/4. Bet365

Just got in from school run and I thought I heard them say India won the toss and put England into bat. Do you know the reason for this given all the evidence in above post

No, it was surprising, as the pitch behaved exactly as expected and now should do a bit more under lights

Perhaps they just are happier chasing, and restricting England to 257 was a good start for that

AFCW v Port Vale tonight

Port Vale are second, free scoring and in form, they have won four of their last five matches

AFC Wimbledon are more concerned with preserving their Football League status and are now on a three match unbeaten run, with much needed wins over Torquay and Rochdale meaning they are now just a point off safety.

Adams has brought in Lee Hughes from Notts County and although now 37 years of age, he adds more firepower to a forward line that already contains League Two's top goalscorer, Tom Pope.

Port Vale to score two or more goals is 5/6 with Bet365. Vale have been prolific in front of goal for most of the season and this bet would of landed in four of their last five matches.

This market appears to offer even more value when looking at this season's results against sides currently in 18th place or below where the league leaders have been nothing short of prolific.

Of the seven games that Port Vale have played, they've only failed to land this bet once, in the other six matches they scored at least three times, twice scoring four goals.

With that in mind and in search of a bigger price, it seems logical to take a crack at over 3 goals in the match at 7/4 Bet365: £13.74 (i like round numbers in my account balance!)

The match is also live on Sky. I am not overly confident as a Wimbledon fan, but reckon you've got a good couple of shouts there Tighty.

I could back Vale at 19/20 which also looks a good price to me

Just wanted something with a bit more spice, as unspicy as 7/4 is....

Being an unspicy dull punter i am already on over 2.5

Builds my confidence with you sir recommending another on top!!!!!

Over 2.5 means I can happily hope for a Wimbledon win whilst not hoping your bets lose!

Just about to wander down the bookies ...so good timing  :)

3 bets it is..... the nitty win, the prob 2 goals and the hot tip 3........

http://www.101greatgoals.com/gallery/gimages/image/afc-wimbledons-ballboys-train-ahead-of-thursdays-match-v-port-vale/

Sigh....Hills 19/20 online....but 8/11 in the shop!....waste of time going there!!

Thats my +2.5 home and dry before half time.

Hopefully you have got this spot on Rich.

2.5 nicely in, why did I back PV too though!   Still, small profit I believe.   TYVM :)

Vale still in it, faith silo Faitttttttth

I'm keeping it boss (http://www.dodgeboard.com/forums/data/attachments/4/4379-0ef7007164ab6d23a06d70a01820192a.jpg)

Spiccccccccccccccey

Nice tipping!

Had bets on over 3.5 and over 4.5 goals so happy but hoping at least one more goes in :)

Quite exciting it seems, shame I'm missing it all.  

yeah one more for Vale pls  :)

Winner

5 winners, 14 bets total

Profit £14.66 on £285.74


Nearly had them all up, Port Vale scored two, over 3 goals..just needed Port Vale to score that winner to cover everyone off a winner I think?

Good game, great result, just the 'if only's to bring my mood down a bit!

Good picks Tighty.

Two fancies for tomorrow

1. Hull City v Barnsley in the FA Cup

Just quietly Barnsley have begun to turn round their form, two home wins (Leeds and Burnley) followed by an away draw at Ipswich, coinciding with David Flitcroft taking over from Keith Hill

Simultaneously Hull are a bit off the boil. Losing at home to Sheff Wed (which I watched, and Hull were very lacklustre), needing an away replay to beat Orient and losing their top scorer Aluko to an 8 week layoff during this period. On home soil, Hull have enjoyed just one win in their last four games, drawing two and losing one.

Hull's priority has to be promotion, and while I don't know what team Bruce will select, I wouldn't be surprised to see a player or two changed.

I don't know if Barnsley's partial recovery will be ongoing, but at over 4-1 to win tomorrow I'll have a go that it might be, with a saver on the draw at nearly 3-1

We know that for teams in this division, almost every team can beat almost every other on their day, and I'd expect that to be magnified in the cup

Bet365 Barnsley £15 to beat Hull 17/4, cover £7.50 Barnsley to draw at Hull 11/4


2 Coventry at Preston

Coventry are nearly 2-1 to win at Preston. Mark Robins has of course really turned Coventry round and they are now challenging for the play offs. Graham Westley has not had the same impact at Preston. In part because his style -  pressing, physical - needs a certain type of player to implement and he doesn't have the flexibility to implement that in terms of budget/funding at this stage

Preston have not won at home since beating Yeovil on the 29th September - a run of nine matches (D5 L4).

Coventry lost their last away match at Carlisle, breaking a six match away winning streak.

Bet365 £15 Coventry at 19/10 looks a very sporting price to me

2-1 available in a couple of places

Im joining you with these, and just for roffles have had a double, and also included them in a 4 game acca (with Man U and Arsenal)

Letssss scooooooooooooooop

I like the Barnsley bet.

It's funny I've had a bet on Huddersfield at 15/4 against your team Leicester.

I wonder how motivated Leicester will be with their eye on the league and promotion.

Just think 15/4 is too big.

Could be

I know we've put a 17yo lad Joe Dodoo into the match 18 player squad, so this could be indicative of resting quite  a few

Any thoughts on the 6 nations Tighty?

yes mate, I did a write up on TfT. Will try and find it

Cannot wait for it

We have had a bet on......Wales to finish bottom.

Do you approve?

He sounds a bit shit.

 ;marks;

I wrote this on 11 Jan Dewi

Still all applies. Has to be a down year for Wales doesn't it? France squad looks hugely strong, but the schedule is bad for them in odd years (easier in even years)


anyway...


We are a couple of weeks away from the Start of the Six Nations, one of the best sporting periods of the year

The fixtures are as follows

    Sat 2 Feb: Wales v Ireland, England v Scotland
    Sun 3 Feb: Italy v France
    Sat 9 Feb: Scotland v Italy, France v Wales
    Sun 10 Feb: Ireland v England
    Sat 23 Feb: Italy v Wales, England v France
    Sun 24 Feb: Scotland v Ireland
    Sat 9 Mar: Scotland v Wales, Ireland v France
    Sun 10 Mar: England v Italy
    Sat 16 Mar: Italy v Ireland, Wales v England, France v Scotland

These are of note because

a) France have to go to England and Ireland
b) Two of Ireland's three away games are at Italy/Scotland

Point a) is crucial and in years when France have these fixtures (home and aways alternate year by year) France are far less likely to win the grand slam than when they host the tougher teams and travel to Italy and Scotland.....

There is no outstanding British team either, and this follows a period where we have had 4 Grand Slams in 5 years and 7 in 12 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship)

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/grand-slam

I am not sure you have any appetite to back a 7/10 shot, but the true odds of there being no Grand Slam this year is well under 1/2 in my opinion

In terms of the winners market

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/six-nations/winner

- As explained above France do not appeal at 2-1 given the schedule. Every year they look the most talented team, but throw in an off day usually away.
- Only once in the last six sets of these fixtures (ie every other year) have France won the six nations. A crucial and overlooked point by current prices.
- Wales have injury problems and a rotten Autumn to contend with
- England are improving, but are a touch one dimensional to win five games on the trot, especially travelling to Dublin and Cardiff
- Italy and Scotland are genuine outsiders

Which leaves Ireland at 9/2

Ireland are between generations. O'Connell, O'Driscoll and the rest are passing the mantle on, though it appears O'Driscoll is fit again for this Six Nations

However, there is no outstanding team in my opinion
They have a favourable schedule (starting at Cardiff is a tough start, but I like it after that)
They have a superb kicker in Johnny Sexton, who is probably the Lions Test Kicker as it stands. He's 27, at his peak and will keep them in every game, especially in bad weather
They have a competitive pack both front row (Healy, Ross, Best/Strauss) and back row (Heaslip and O'Brien if fit)

and, structurally, years of Heineken Cup exposure has given many of their players from Munster and Leinster far more big match experience than former Irish teams used to have

This price, 9/2, is an interesting situation in a competition so open

Recommend £20 at 9/2 Ireland to win the Six Nations.

 rotflmfao

Very astute, just be careful what you wish for  ;)

Cheers Rich, I think Scotland will surprise at a good price (but I'm shit at betting)

RickBFA

Knockaert out for LCFC tomorrow, resting an ankle problem

Looks a decent punt for you I'd say

Tighty Porn

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/interactive/2013/jan/25/worlds-most-beautiful-cricket-grounds?CMP=twt_gu

Hadn't heard of this one before. Stunningly eccentric

(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Cricket/Pix/pictures/2013/1/25/1359131296127/Lynton-and-Lynmouth-Crick-001.jpg)

Thanks sounds good news. FA Cup is a betting nightmare these days, some value on outsiders without doubt though with teams making wholsale changes/not taking it seriously.

About halfway up Beachy Head there is a similar cricket square, sitting in a bowl. Used by the private school St Bede's

Leicester have rested 6 with 1 key player injured in th FA Cup

None of Nugent, Wood, Knockaert, Drinkwater and James play

You can get 19/4 Bet365 Huddersfield at home (thats 19/4 for a side in the same division, albeit badly out of form for ages)

Value price, against a weakened team that looks like its manager has thoughts on promotion not the cup


I am joining RickBFA, £20 at 19/4 Bet365

A profit overall, thanks to Barnsley winning at 17/4, of £21

6 winners, 18 bets total

Profit £35.66 on £343.49

ROI 10.38%

We knew this would happen.

Well done, keep em coming.

Coming along nicely now Rich.

Masterful.

 

Not the best of pictures Tighty, but this is the grounds where that cricket pitch is (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Whitbread_Hole_-_geograph.org.uk_-_906092.jpg)

Only in England.

I'll try and go up there in the next couple of days and get a picture from the hill, with the sea in the background

Nottingham v Bedford, RU Championship at 2.45pm

Both sides have scored over 420 points in 13 games this season

Both sides average 4 tries a game

Six of the last seven games between the two have seen point aggregates over 50. Earlier in the season Bedford won 27-25.

Today's quote is 5/6 over/under 44.5

Bedford's manager Mike Rayer in my local paper states

"We have got a good official and both sides are keen to show what they can do, so the flow of the game should be good and we have a responsibility to produce a good product"

The pitch is fine

£18.75 on the over. Bet365

Glorious!


A few years back we played Milian Cricket Club....whose ground was actually up in the Italian lakes.

Stunning location.....and the only game I'll gone to via a Hydrofoil  :)

From their website:

The home ground is basically a meadow in the middle of a beautiful mountain setting with a stream running through which acts well as a beer cooler, if it's not the dry season.


http://web.tiscali.it/mcc/

All the workings are on TfT

I have near my max £45 on Scotland +15 in the 6N on Saturday at Evens B365

£30 Con Eastleigh by election as per Tft Ladbrokes 6/4

Bet365 were 6/5 so had to take the better price

Any ideas when the election will be Tighty? Had Ladbrokes balance on it.....a whole £10  :D

I spoke last night about Eden Park, the T20 being played on a rugby ground tomorrow with short straight boundaries

I tried to get a better depiction of the strange dimensions of this for cricket

(http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTdTzkUU-7WPZhXZwvuDaRCM_bQAPF72-LallzW7N5-ZiVdyKmh)

and the stadium site shows the above which gives you an idea

Including the England Tour last in 2008, the following T20s have been played in Auckland

2008 Eng 13 sixes
2008 W Indies 14 sixes
2010 Pakistan 16 sixes
2012 Zimbabwe 13 sixes
2013 S Africa 12 sixes

the 16 sixes game was remarkable, as 143 included 7 sixes, 146 won it with 9 sixes

For the nit, Ladbrokes will offer you over 11.5 tomorrow at 4/6. Given steady extraneous factors (waether etc) this is really a 1/2 shot.

The drop in pitch is light in colour and looks a belter

For a sporting chance with Sporting bet, over 15 at 11/8

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-england/t20-series/new-zealand-v-england-%5B1st-t20%5D/total-6s

I have £20 over £15 at 11/8, rather than the odds-on shot

28 Feb

Con and Ld now joint favourites, Evens available for either in places

Thanks Tighty! good one this one i got on at 13 on the spreads! Nice little profit! easy money england smashed it!

FA Cup replay tonight Leicester v Huddersfield, 7.30pm ESPN

Put simply, Leicester aren't up for this and not particularly bothered

- Pearson made 5 changes for the first game and wasn't particularly happy we drew

- Two significant injuries since Wood and Marshall. Wood especially, we are a less effective team without him

- There is a cold/flu bug that will see a few others missing

- Priority is promotion, clearly

Quotes in today's local from the manager

"We have a few players who have been suffering with colds and 'flu and such like. That has been a bit irritating for us trying to manage the squad through the weeks building up to games, but the players have just got on with it.

"I will make some changes, but I will make changes that will give us opportunities to win the game.

"We don't have a big squad in terms of having lots of fringe players.

"We have a tight squad of good players and I will be looking to freshen it up where I need to.

"There will be opportunities for players, and it is up to those individuals to go out and really stamp their authority on the game," he said.

"I will fully expect that to happen. It will be a different side and a different complexion to the team"

These types of fringe players: Wellens, Gallagher etc haven't played much all year and have looked off the pace when seen off the bench etc





Huddersfield have picked up some form under their caretaker manager, and are terrific value at 8-1

Stake small because it could easily be extra-time etc, which Leicester would want even less than this replay

Recommend £20 Huddersfield 8-1 bet365

The Bet365 Madrid offer

"Real Madrid and Man Utd clash in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium on Wednesday 13th February - and we’ve got a fantastic free bet offer to add to the excitement.

Place a pre-match bet on this much anticipated fixture and we will give you a free In-Play bet to the same stake on the big match.

To qualify for your free In-Play bet, simply place a bet before kick-off, then once the game starts place another bet on any In-Play market. If your FIRST In-Play bet loses we will refund this stake, up to the same value as your largest pre-match bet (max £50)."

I'm not restricted. Yet.


It's a first leg.

Man U tactically I think will stick two on Ronaldo. Da Silva with Valencia in front

They will play exclusively on the counter, with Rooney part of a 5 man midfield

Phil Jones man to man on Fellaini at the weekend was an interesting tactical nuance that I wondered might have been a precursor to something similar on Wednesday too

Man U have conceded only 3 goals in 7 games, much better since Vidic came back, and others


I think 1-1,1-0,0-0 are all very possible..both teams happy to take it to the second leg....


If the under goes south, the reasonable possibility is that one of Higuain and Benzama, anytime goalscorer at 5/4 is better value than a double marked or man marked Ronaldo at 4/6

As the game starts, stick the free £50 on Benzema (or insert player of your choice) anytime

as the Unders bet and the anytime goalscorer bet amongst the best Madrid goalscoring bets are negatively correlated.



So far I have £50 Under 2.5, 3 on the Bet365 Asian (if half stake back, the free bet is not valid) at 2.075

When play starts I will have the free bet £50 Benzema Anytime at 5/4


and we'll see if the theory comes close

Two interesting analysis there Tighty, Good Luck.

On the Leicester one with Hills. No chance with 365 unfortunately but still got the 8 to 1.

Good luck with this.

Great result with Huddersfield thank you

Amen to that.

N1 Tighty.

Worried about my B365 account, where I am trying to work off a deposit bonus

this message will self destruct before B365 open in the morning

Ship the £180. Told you to leave it with  me. ;)

Updating

£159.41 profit on £537.24

ROI 29.6%

8 winners from 22


Conservatives in Eastleigh and the Man U free bet for tomorrow still live


Will update  again next time I have a winner!

Tremendous stuff, Rich, well done.

 :)up

Thank you sir

+1

Very wpwp. Hammering the bigger-priced Tighty tips in future seems like a fine plan imo.

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Nice to come back to from a lovely walk.

Thanks Rich. Owe you a drink next time at DTD.

Well done Tighty - laid the plaudits on the other thread :)

Show on The Road...........

.... Great Stuff Rich  !!

Vwp Tighty

Top work Tighty.

Welsh Open Snooker

This tournament is really opening up

An Indian player beat Shaun Murphy in the last 32, Doherty beat Higgins last night

There is no particular value in the three likely winners at this stage: Robertson, Selby and Trump all priced at between 9/2 to 6/1 with the last 16 starting later

the draw is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Welsh_Open_%28snooker%29#Main_draw

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/welsh-open/welsh-open/winner


I think there is one of the remaining Last 32 matches where there is an opportunity

Robert Milkins plays Mark Williams

We were all commenting in the Masters that Williams' game is a shadow of what it was. He's less motivated to practice these days.

Milkins is ranked just outside the top 20. He's reached a PTC semi this season, three PTC quarters and a QF in the Wuxi Classic, one of the ranked events. He's beaten Trump in the Wuxi

I'm not claiming eyeball knowledge of Milkins recent play, though I have seen him at the the Crucible. I did see Williams play at the Masters, and he was poor and disinterested.

In essence this is an even money game, of players similar in current standard (the rankings overstate Williams, as they still include historic results, he drops as they go out of the calculation)

Its best of 7, so that increases the likelihood of betting upsets too, as we've seen with Murphy and Higgins amongst others

In this essentially pick-em game you can get 13/8 Milkins

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/welsh-open/robert-milkins-v-mark-williams/winner

I don't think Williams is 1/2 against many if any top 32 players, with the short format randomising the results to an extent too


Notes

http://www.snooker.org/res/index.asp?template=16&season=2012

Provisionally Williams down to 15, Milkins up to 11 (there appear to be multiple provisional lists, but this was the most striking!)

£25 Milkins to beat Mark Williams B365 13/8

The match is at 7pm on BBC Red button or Eurosport 1

Go on Tighty. Great write up Gl.

Trump beaten in the Wuxi made me lol

Looks like Fergie going for the away goal

De Gea; Rafael, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra; Jones, Carrick; Rooney, Kagawa, Welbeck; Van Persie


Pondering changing the free bet to RVP from Benzema anytime, seeing as the Unders looks in trouble....

Not much width in that United team!

Agree

its 4-5-1 when defending I suppose

Will Jones man mark Ronaldo?

How much will they miss Vidic?

Intriguing game, and I am probably going to do 50 notes all seduced by the lure of a free bet offer. Which I suppose is their plan! 

Bet the over with the free bet?

Either win or break level

Impossible they win on this offer. Heaven knows how much it will cost them.

10,000 accounts will do the offer?

maybe, I don't know

I think I'll stick with the original plan, rather than second and third guessing myself.

See if Phil Jones can be in Ronaldo's hip pocket all game

Benzema for the free bet.

An inkling of a heart rate increase when he was free in the box in the first minute

GL me

I've gone United to win @ 19/4 and again @ 9/2 with my bets.
Real are looking lively though!

Milkins beats Williams comforatably 4-1

Another great spot Tighty!

Well that was an interesting night

Milkins looked impressive, Williams out of sorts. Return +£40.63.

At 1-1 H-T at the Bernabeu I thought i had no chance on the unders. Tactically though in the second half Man U tightened up, closed the channels behind Ronaldo and with a bit of luck the unders came in

The free bet failed. Need to have a good think for next time, didn't really find anything much that appealed, but maybe the market is too raked over to spot much in a game like that

£53.75 returned

Very well done Tighty, you are in a rich vein of form.

Updating

£253.79 profit on £612.24 punted

ROI 41.4%

10 winners from 24

Judd Trump v Andrew Higginson in the Welsh Open starting at 2pm

Trump scraped past Dominic Dale yesterday, was 3-1 down and won 4-3

He looked impatient most of the game and his long potting was all over the place

We know (indeed we talked about it) that he struggles to get motivated outside the really big arenas

Higginson is a top 32 player. Not had the best of seasons but solid generally.


He is priced at 11/4 to win this, another 7 frame game

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/welsh-open/judd-trump-v-andrew-higginson/winner

If you want final frame insurance, Bet Victor are 5/2


The randomising nature of short matches, plus Trump's somewhat questionable temperament and form, means 11/4 is over-priced

Because Higginson is not the form horse that Milkins is, its a lower sized recommendation

£16.05 Higginson to beat Trump at 5/2 B365 ( 5/2 Bet Victor with the 4-3 insurance but no account there)

Yeah - with those free bets on the big matches you're never going to find much of an edge - the important thing is just to get the bet on something and suck up the value created by getting half your money back if it goes down.

Phew sweaty second frame that.

Thought it was pretty much game over when he missed that green in to the top right pocket!

Trump playing pretty much as Tighty predicted, unfortunately Higgingson keeps making basic errors too

Yes he's not playing well enough. Trump is beatable, but you have to take your chances, as Milkins, Advani, Perry, Bingham have done in the last 48 hours

You defo read Trump correct tighty but our man aint turned up.

but he's only 2-1 down, if I am watching live!

Every chance, just needs to settle and punish the mistakes

Just missed a sitter and looks like going 3-1 down

yes, sigh

half the idea was right! (the wrong half)

We can stand it, keep em coming

+1

I watched the first few frames but Higgingson was so poor couldn't bear any more and I didn't even bet on the game!!!
Bingham pulled out a cracking clear to take his match.

Keep 'em coming Tighty

£237.24 profit on £628.29 punted

ROI 37.8%

10 winners from 25

Just had a small play on Pakistan in the second test in Cape Town at 9/2

Pak recovered from 30-4 to 338 all out having been put in

The pitch is about a day ahead of schedule in terms of wear, brown, dry and sun beating down

SA having failed to capitalise on 30-4 probably have to bat last against Saeed Ajmal

9/2 looks too big to me, £10 on B365

and Pakistan drop Smith on 0 in the slips

lol

105-4

Pakistan into 13/10 joint favourite, Ajmal all 4 wickets so far and him to bowl last on a dry one

chances chances if Pakistan can get a first innings lead, was certainly interesting at 9/2


Meanwhile, I played Trump into form in the snooker....

I'm talking to myself

109-5

Pakistan go odds-on

If only someone had invented somewhere I could back to lay.

Typical, i have missed this.

Good Luck Sir

Interesting in Cape Town

SA recovered from 139/6 to 326 all out

Pak have a small first innings lead, and have the best spinner possible bowling last

Yet SA are 8/11, Pak 5/2

Assumes Pakistan won't bat well, which is understandable given recent performances

If they can set them 250+ though, Pakistan are great value at 5/2

Ouch.

Pakistan lost both openers for 0 but recovered to 100 for 3, 112 ahead

All to play for with two days to go. The longer Pakistan can bat, the worse the pitch for Ajaml to bowl on

Pakistan into 2-1. SA odds on. Pakistan still a sporting punt, as they have been for most of the three days. Consistently under-estimated, I hope


Elsewhere I contemplated two bets today. Watford at Brum at 6-4 and got talked out of it, nits thread tenner apart. 2-0 up at half time

Quins/Leicester overs on the points. starts 5pm. Talked out of that too

Lesson is probably just to put the bet on, rather than canvas!

46 points at the Stoop

Next time, the bets are going on!

Well as long as everyone else got on, right?

Pak lose 6 for 22, having got into a position to put real pressure on last night

SA 182 to win

Probably sunk, but a couple of quick wickets and then Ajmal might make it tense

The 3rd ODI takes place in Auckland overnight our time

This was the ground on which we achieved a sixes overs bet after one innings a fortnight ago, if everyone remembers. The quote was set at 13, it made up 23, in T20

It's at Eden Park, a dual purpose rugby/cricket round with very short straight boundaries

In the two ODIs in the series so far

1. Hamilton 55 boundaries, 46 fours, 9 sixes. NZ chased and won

2 Napier 54 boundaries 45 fours 9 sixes, Eng chased and won

Auckland is a drop in pitch, quick and true, in favour of batsmen


It is tempting to go overs on sixes. The line is set at 12.5. However the composition of the teams is markedly different to the T20 line ups

For NZ, Guptill is injured and really only B McCullum is a big six hitter

For England Hales, Lumb, Luke Wright are gone and in come Cook, Trott, Root with Bell in the top 4

So for England the top 4 are accumulators, and not "launch it" guys. They come with Morgan and Buttler at 5 and 6

So, I am but reluctant to go for the sixes


However, there represents a real opportunity on the Boundaries market, because

William Hill go 52.5 each of two under/over at 5/6

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/new-zealand-v-england/odi-series/new-zealand-v-england-%5B3rd-odi%5D/total-boundaries

and Cook, Trott, Root etc should be in their element in Auckland, without us having to watch them nurdle around while we want sixes


52.5 has been beaten on both games so far, both on bigger grounds. Albeit Napier was very short square rather than straight

This wicket is also true

The straight dimensions of this ground mean, as we saw in the T20, that you can mishit boundaries


After I researched, I came up with a quote in my head before I looked at the market. I had 60 in mind for a boundary total

I would like to recommend a chunky bet on the overs 5/6 at 52.5


Risks?

NZ are probably the more fragile batting team, especially at 1-3. If they bat first, and Anderson/Finn get among them then we might get a lower first innings total than we need (first two games 258 and 270)

That's a chance worth taking



from TfT. £40 here 5/6 W Hill

Also £20 France 3-1 v England RU tomorrow Sp Bet , from Tft

On GL us

Small wagers for tonight

£5 draw Lcfc v Blackburn 14-5

£5 Walsall at Carlisle 21/10

£10 AFC W  home to Plymouth 13/10

all B365
 

Updating

Profit £157.74 on £718.25

ROI 21.9%

You're probably busy at DTD today.

I've had a look at L1 and L2 tomorrow.

On Coventry are 7/4 at home to Swindon. I think Swindon are wobbling a little.

Like York at 31/16 against Bradford - Bradford drew in midweek and may be tiring/demotivated after Wembley. Promotion looks a long way off now.

Also on Morcambe at 8/5 against Rochdale. Morcambe scored 14 goals in last 6 games. Rochdale scored 2 in last 6.

And Barnet 21/10 at Plymouth. Plymouth struggling at home (last 3 homes games - lost 1-0, drew 0-0 and drew 0-0) and Barnet are under rated for me, they have put together 3 decent results recently.

You got any views on lower leagues this weekend?

Not got a lot of time to be look tbh, been touched off on a few things recently too

I have Sheff Wed/Forest, Cov/Swindon and York/Bradford as draw type games over on the Nit thread

Short of time

Updating from TfT

Anderson top series bowler E v NZ £20 at 9/4 Stan James

£50 real Madrid to qualify 4/6 on the free bet offer, free bet 11/8 over 3 goals in the match on the refundable

Updating

Madrid to qualify at 4/6 won, and I was refunded on the over 3 free bet which missed by a goal

Profit £191.08 on £768.25

ROI 24.87%


Live bets £20 Anderson top series bowler 9/4, Federer £10 e/w Indian wells 11/2 1/2 odds 1,2

as per TfT

£25 Ireland 11/10 v France this weekend

Smallish Non League bets this weekend

I see a lot of the Southern League, think both prices here are way way wrong, Bet365

Weymouth 4/5 v Banbury £20

Hemel 10/11 at Bedworth £22

Both, in terms of quality, are 1/2 shots v the other side


Add those to the Ireland bet today, and Anderson/Federer outstanding

Research notes

PTC Snooker next Tour event starts Tues

The draw is so lopsided it is eye-popping

1    Mark Selby       v       Jack Lisowski         
2    Martin Gould       v       Tom Ford         
3    Marco Fu               v       Mark Joyce         
4    John Higgins       v       Allister Carter         
5    Neil Robertson       v       Jamie Burnett         
6    Barry Hawkins       v       Li Hang         
7    Graeme Dott       v       Xiao Guodong         
8    Judd Trump       v       Alfie Burden    

so the top half has selby, trump, higgins and robertson. These would be the top 4 in the betting pre-draw

     
9    Ding Junhui       v       Andrew Higginson         
10    Robert Milkins       v       Anthony McGill         
11    Mark Allen       v       Mark Davis         
12    Stephen Maguire       v       Joe Swail     

the third quarter has Allen and Maguire, Ding Still much weaker than the top half
   
13    Rod Lawler       v       Cao Yupeng         
14    Ken Doherty       v       Kurt Maflin         
15    Ben Woollaston       v    Mark Williams         
16    Stuart Bingham       v    Joe Perry

the final quarter is extremely weak. Lawler/Doherty and Williams who is out of form.Bingham beat Perry comfortably in Wales

Bingham again. check e/w odds to final. we have a run through to the semi's


check oddschecker

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/players-tour-championship/players-tour-championship-finals/winner

the top four in the market are in the same half of the draw. check

Ding, Maguire, Allen are the next three in the betting. they are in the same quarter. check

Bingham at 22-1 11-1 e/w to final with a run to the semi's that is unusually weak (next lowest odds in his quarter Wollaston 80-1)?

If Bingham can win his quarter we can back to get the stake back on his opponent at the semi

Bazinga.

Love that logic Rich.

Bazinga

On 22-1 £10 e/w Bingham. Price should go. Definitely priced up without a proper look at the draw

Weymouth won, +16 to the balance

Hemel postponed

Updating

Not sure how Ireland failed to win, but they did

Profit £183 on £813.25

ROI 22.5%


Live bets £20 Anderson top series bowler 9/4, Federer £10 e/w Indian wells 11/2 1/2 odds 1,2, Bingham 10 e/w at 22-1

You need a a spready, Rich.

Great results, too.

Good spot that Tighty.

I didn't have you down as a big snooker fan, how did you come across the draw?

Hope it its a good spot

I am a snooker fan, but more generally I am a bit of a draw anorak across various sports, looking for opportunities


In snooker currently the top 4 in any pre-tournament market are Trump, Selby, Robertson, Higgins

the markets generally pay 1/2 e/w 1-2...so when here you have all four in the same half, there has to be e/w value in the other as prices are longer

More notably here, the bottom quarter is by far the weakest on average ranking. This is a function of where various players finished in their PTC roups in the qualification rounds pre-Xmas

I chose Bingham, but may be the wrong call....we'll see

On at 20s

Slow coach

Any F1 thoughts Tighty?

Ferrari looking better?

Yes.

I have resolved not to bet on F1 this year though

The impossibility of predicting tyre performance for various teams - and this year the tyres have been designed to last even less laps than last year - means that its not about raw pace, but more race management and strategy

It really introduces a lottery element, and it was bad enough last year!

From Winter testing it appears that Ferrari are well ahead compared to this stage last year. Whether that means they are consistently winnign races against Red Bull and McLaren I don't know

In so far as I can tell Mercedes look quick, McLaren looks slowish and Red Bull haven't really shown anything yet

Four Australians dropped for the 3rd Indian test in Mohali on the 18th.

They were asked to fill in a form for feedback on ways to improve (bat better, bowl better, hold catches?), failed to do so and dropped

Shane Watson
Pattinson and Johnson
Khawaja

Watson has left in a huff (time to fill in a form, Indian Departure visa)

Watson the best batsman Clarke aside, Pattinson the best quick bowler

aussies down to two quicks in the squad for next week, Starc and Siddle, in Mohali


With team spirit in disarray, already 2-0 down, thread has to take India at Evens while it can

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-australia/test-series/india-v-australia-%5B3rd-test%5D/winner

£22.50 India at Evens B365

I missed my price, which was 13/8, but have to take 11/8 BetVictor No Grand Slam in the 6n..ie Wales to win Saturday

£25 at 11/8

Not a slow coach this time

GL

In again at 2.25

You know it makes sense!!!!

Betfair now go 2.34 India.

Almost feels if it looks too good to be true, it usually is.....

Yep, been there many times and no doubt will return lolz

watch them bring Warne out of retirement

On all available info anything over Evens is decent

Aussie team spirit must be terrible.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/barcelona-v-ac-milan/to-qualify

Milan won 2-0 in the first leg

Did an absolute number on Barcelona tactically at the San Siro, denied the top 3 space and time. Messi hardly had a kick

If they can score 1, Barc need to score 4 to go through

Barca can score 2 in normal time and still not be assured of getting through

Barca's form has also been patchy

Isn't 4/6 just a great price Milan to qualify?

I have £24 to win £16


Not including other peoples tips on this, which after Cheltenham today is a shame!

some cheltenham winnings invested  :)

I think 4/6 is excellent value. If any team can do it, it probably is Barcelona.
But precisely coz it is Barcelona, they are being over valued here. 2-0 is a massive lead, I reckon it should be 1/3 Milan.
Did you put this up for TfT?

yes sir

think it got swamped by Cheltenham fever, but no bother

Stephen Maguire in Bingham's half was 3-0 up against Swail, lost 4-3

Major result, if Bingham can win on Thursday.

It is a best of 7, so we need a touch of luck, all the seeds do..but that bottom half is looking better for us on Bingham


Meanwhile, Mr Messi, that is enough of that.

1 on 1, away goal?......hit the post.


Sulk.

bigger sulk.

They will get at least one more chance and they have to take it.

Not meant as a rub but it did seem very results orientated to forget how unreal Barca are, very likely the greatest team to ever walk on a field. Everyone went on about how they were so poor in Milan, that was never going to happen again.

Not at all results orientated, well I wasn't being. 4/6 was a more than fair price. Thought it was 1/2 or shorter, and I certainly know how good Barca are most nights!

Mes que un club and all that.

 Niang's was the only chance

turned a game from tough/going bad to too tough/gone

Love that, in injury time, defending a lead, where's your left back?

Is he (a) in the left back position, defending?

Or (b) in the opposing box, chipping over the keeper?

lol

they were great though, terrific performance

AC Milan - must admit they didn't park their bus that well

chelsea bus> Inter bus> no bus> AC bus

If you can find anyone doing it I quite like Maflin to have the highest break v Doherty

thank you

Assume Maflin is properly fit again?

See he's 6/4 dog tomorrow, decent player though.

Tbf no side had ever turned over a 2-0 loss from the first leg in the knockout stages before tonight. Even a Barca side since their first great side in 06.

I missed a vital stat

Barcelona have played at home during three papal conclaves. After tonight, they have won each 4-0

That, the few readers of this, I submit is stat of the year

TBH Tighty I don't know how fit  Maflin is. Was researching 'minor/unknown' players last month for these best of 7 games and noticed he had a knack for putting in some big breaks. Doherty done well in PTCs this year for him, but he plays a wiley old game nowadays to restrict the young guns from scoring rather than putting big scores up.
If Maflin gets in he often scores big.

NOW you tell us.

Incred stat, though.

Ben Wollaston, up and comer with a very decent record in best of sevens, 6/4 v Wlliams 1/2 in a best of 7 at the PTC later today

- best of 7 is a randomising format
- Williams no form all season
- Williams possible motivation issues

can't make Williams 1/2 against many players in this format

£20 at 6/4

Ha, I did the same bet earlier Rich, good luck us!

apologies if anyone bet on highest break in maflin game. kens scoring turned up in one frame and he scored a century. one to look out for though i think

Updating

Post Barcelona and Wollaston

Profit £189 on £857.25

ROI 22.04%


Live bets

£20 Anderson top series bowler 9/4,

Federer £10 e/w Indian wells 11/2 1/2 odds 1,2,

Bingham £10 e/w at 22-1,

£22.50 India at Evens,

£25 no grand slam rugby at 13/8

Updating post Federer and Bingham, loss

Profit £149 on £897.25

ROI 16.6%
 

Tighty - regarding Williams it looks like his attitude bucked up a bit.  I'm wondering if the time to oppose him may soon be over (lucrative as it has been).  Might even swim against the tide soon.

Agree with this. Was thinking when watching his last game that opposing him is now over

Updating post No Grand Slam winner

Profit £189.62 on £922.25

ROI 20.56%

£20 Anderson top series bowler 9/4,

£22.50 India at Evens,

live and likely losers
 

Is there light at the end of the Indian tunnel

Interesting 20 odd overs to come.

Tendulkar, must try harder

Well we got there in the end.

Excellent monday morning sweat.

Great call Sir.

Marvellous

In four days too!

The weather forecast was factored into the price, hence why 11/8 and weakening when the team news was announced

Updating post India win

Profit £212.12 on £944.75

ROI 22.45%

£20 Anderson top series bowler 9/4 still outstanding

 

9.40 tonight

£40 Draw 3rd test NZ v E at 7/4 B365

Draw should be odds on, pitch is a road, tiny boundaries.

Montenegro -1 on the h/c at 8/5 tonight B365

£25 win

Montenegro a serious team, that I have followed quite a bit in betting terms through this Qual group and the Euro one

Top of England's group with 10 pts out of 12, 12 goals for, 2 against. Drew away in Poland, beat Ukraine away

Jovetic and Vucinic class players going forward in this team

Moldova 2 goals scored in 4 games

8/5 a serious price for a team that has to win these games to stand any chance of pipping England to the group win

Paddy Power is now 9/5 for anyone who hasn't taken the price.

Edit.  See I am miles behind tikay on the other thread. 

Proof that the 1/100 shot gets turned over sometimes. ;)

Updating post the unexpected Test draw (+£70) and Montenegro and Anderson losing bets (-£45)

Profit £237.12 on £1029.75

ROI 23.02%

You were on the draw?

You run good!

I wrote it off at some point over the weekend.

I woke up, spookily, with two overs to go and pressed the remote control...we were 316-9 and Monty had just come in

I was compos mentis rather quicker than I normally am at 5am!

Fancy having to rely on Monty to save your bet......

Long term stuff from TfT to add on

Middlesex CC D1 7/1 £15 e/w Paddy Power

Judd Trump £20 win 7/1 World Championship Coral

Had a bet on Middlesex though it says 7.5/1 now. Time to put more on?

up to you Simon

Personally I'll go back at 8-1

There are 9 teams in Div 1, they are priced to finish 6th, having finished 3rd last year...and are stronger this year

The E/W part is very very tempting, with hopefully a shot at a sweat for first

Max bet £50 at Evens Ladbrokes.


If anyone wants to get on a bet at Evens when it should be short price odds-on?

Here's one for you

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/politics/british-politics/south-shields-by-election-e216944105-m228702791

UKIP in the upcoming South Shields By-election..to finish second


See very little chance, in this all time safe Labour constituency, that the 20% who voted Tory last time don't move big time to the UKIP

that 20% was 7,886 votes in 2010 and just over 5,000 votes in 2005 and 2001 in what is a very small constiuency

UKIP have never fielded a candidate in this constituency

UKIP can poll 4-5k votes from LD and Cons in the by-election. Yes, I am pretty sure they can

Money tied up til 2nd May.

Colbert Station £10 e/w Grand National 12-1, with a view to more if it weakens

TfT is on Seabass, now 9-1, 3rd last year

Ted Walsh states there is nothing between these two, in the same yard

this one jumps fantastically, well weighted (10-11, 7lb lower than Seabass), form on 3m+ in the soft

Looks  a National horse, downside is relative inexperience but did win a 28 runner race at Leopardstown at Xmas

Don't mind that McCoy has chosen another, means the odds on this don't plummet

colbert 15s on bf
seabass 11

these are on the bf multiple app where you can do proper ew though

thank you

*must check betfair*

need that tatooed somewhere

Dfinitely right to stop opposing Mark Williams

Through to the QF in China and potting much better. Think we got that one about right


Lisowski through to quarters too...sitting on £3 at 100-1 for the Worlds (hey big spender)

which hopefully will see him qualify at which point he will be a danger to anyone

Added, as per TfT

Mumbai Indians IPL £10 at 5-1

Added £20 Robertson WSC 13/2

Opened an account at Stan James, see how long that lasts

£10 on their Madrid/Dortmund both to win at 15/8 Promo, with a £10 free bet to follow which I will plunge with research aforethought on something suitable at Aintree

Happy Birthday

£15 E/W First Lieutenant 4/1 Aintree 2.30 1st three E/W 1/4

£15 E/W Astracad 11/1 Aintree 4.15 1st four E/W 1/4

£5 E/W double

B365

Good stuff Rich, but beware the "filthy ew doubles", from what I gather, they are the account killers, more than the singles.

Didn't think an 11/1 shot was that filthy tbh. Joe Cundall gave me Astracad BTW.

if I am putting up first Lieutenant at 4/1 and Countrywide Flame at 4/1 as an e/w double (which it should be) then that's filthy.



 

Objection over-ruled.

What would Joe Cundall know? Oh, wait.......

I'm trying a Tighty Treble. gogogogo us

+1

omgomgomg, first one won. The sweat is onnnnnnnnnnnn. Come on Countrywide!!!!!!!

Lolz i missed Countrywide out

Did it with astracad and double

great start, god luck with the dbles and trebs guys

Updating post First Lieutenant and the CL loser, other horse loser

Profit £267.12 on £1104.75

ROI 24.17%


Still live

Mumbai
Robertson
Trump
UKIP 2nd in South Shields
Colbert Station e/w
Middlesex e/w

Travelling again today, so no time to wait for Betting Emp and the rest

Profit and then some from yesterday reinvested into

Rocky River (nap, lol) £20 at 11/4 2.30 Aintree

Cue Card £10 e/w 7-1 3.05 Aintree  e/w is only first 2, but I have in my mind CC will really stretch them, try and test SS's stamina and will take him to win without Sprinter Sacre as the e/w portion


Two outsiders

£5 e/w both of

- Renard 40-1 in the Topham. Down the weights a lot, like Venetia Williams horses at high prices at big festivals (learnt that from Channing)
- Uxizandre 16-1 in the At Fishers Cross race. Can't have At Fishers Cross at the price, looked for alternatives, saw this and thought it was over-priced on its improving record this season

You're doomed on the first two tips as I have them as my selections in the tipping comp. :)

Ha!

Too late. We can form an East Midlands axis of funk.

note -£32.50 today for next figures

Brighton £20 6/4 v LCFC tomorrow as per TfT

How much would you need to wager before you'd be wanting Leicester to lose ?

Seperate parts of the brain

the betting should be completely devoid of emotion, I think. What do I think is the right price or not?

I think so many people (not on here, but I see it in a lot of football fans) can't divorce the emotion from the logic, and do their dough as a result

When I used to go to every game for years and years I would visit the little Ladbrokes kiosk in my section of the ground at Filbert Street and look at the prices on the coupon. Almost irrespective of who we were playing the prices would reflect a bias towards Leicester (the local coupons would reflect where they knew the weight of money was going), and routinely I'd be backing the other side in FGS markets etc at prices  I considered value while all around me Leicester Lemmings were plunging onto our striker at 4-1 to score first. At its height, when O'Neill left and Taylor came in and we were going down from about February we had coupons with Akinbiyi 5-1/6-1 to score first at home to Premiership sides. Akinbiyi! I'd perm 3 or 4 from the opposition and went on a great run that season of scooping the "value".

I'd want Leicester to win whatever I had on the other side, is the simple tldr answer, but (on my small scale) done ok over the years at ignoring emotion and treating the betting as seperate from my preferred outcome as a supporter

I was trading stocks for about 15 years, and I think this type of stuff, dispassionate but research and logic led, comes from that

When markets were fast moving, there was no point getting emotional and backing what you might have actually wanted politically, economically etc

Just do the analysis, let the short term take care of itself and try to spot mispricings

Obviously I am not a pro punter and never will be, though if I had my time again I would have done a few things differently (would have loved to have been a sports journalists, sports commentator, sports trader etc etc) but Its the same type of emotional state when it comes to backing against teams I support

I'm happy to advise betting on/against Newcastle and think I can do so without letting emotions cloud my judgement but would never do it myself. I actually started a post on TFT yday about betting on Benfica versus us but by the time I was done the price had gone :(

I once had a scorecast bet on Newcastle winning 3-2, we were winning 3-1 with 10 minutes to go so naturally, imo, I found myself wanting the other team to score, just felt so wrong though and spoiled the game for me in a way.

Think it would be pretty tough for anyone to put there net on the opposition and not want there team to lose.

yeah I am never betting in large sums anyway. Genuinely a £50 max punter these days, usually less, which this thread reflects. Never be self employed in the recreational poker end of the market!

I accept if I had thousands against my side, the mental conflicts would be a lot tougher

Updating post losses

Profit £194.62 on £1177.75

ROI 16.5%


Still live

Mumbai
Robertson
Trump
UKIP 2nd in South Shields
Middlesex e/w


Added £5 e/w Northants County Champ Div 2 at 20-1 1/5 top 3

Forgot to add Warburton £10 11/4 Lions Captain (nb check), which is a swingy market to say the least

Burden v Harold £20 at 11/10 as per Tft, World Snooker Qualifying

Basle o1.5 tonight £30 Stan James 11/8 as per tft

£5 ew each of

all 5 places

Hanson, Peter 75/1
Johnson, Zach 125/1
Dufner, Jason 70/1
Garrigus, Rob 200/1

in the Masters

Weighed in.

Marv........

Updating post Basle and Burden beating Harold 10-9 tonight

Profit £257.87 on £1227.75

ROI 21%

Still live

Mumbai
Robertson
Trump
UKIP 2nd in South Shields
Middlesex e/w
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2
Warburton  Lions Captain
Four Masters bets, of which only one sweat at this stage, Johnson at 125-1 e/w

Nice one Rich, I didn't even know he was still playing!

Following the World Snooker pretty closely

The final qualifying round starts tomorrow

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship

Of the 16 who have qualified through to play seeds 17-32, who get to this round automatically, two are priced as favourites..Jack Lisowski and Kurt Maflin. Tick.

Of the other 14,

I wanted Liang Wenbo against Mark Davis but Liang is priced to run him close, at Evens

I am tempted by Alfie Burden again against Dominic Dale at 8/5. Wouldn't put you off, but Burden went through a gruelling game against Harold that finished very late. Might not be the freshest


The one that appeals is Ben Wollaston against Ryan Day at 13/10 B365

Day's seeding overstates his current form, hasn't been beyond the second round of any event this season, and didn't qualify for the final stages of over half

A good break builder, but prone to lots of silly mistakes and plenty of lapses in concentration

Wollaston made the QF of the recent PTC

Day at 7/10 is priced off past form, and in particular reaching the Quarters of the World's last year.

Make this an Even money game. Provisional rankngs of 29 (Day, falling) and 33 (Wollaston, rising) would suggest it is far closer than 7/10 and 13/10 the pair

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/ryan-day-v-ben-woollaston/winner

Am on Wollaston at 13/10 £25  B365 at midday today

Good Stuff Rich

£15 ew Vettel B365 China GP 11/2

"The drivers ahead of Button and Vettel will all have to pit relatively early to change the fragile 'soft' tyres while the 'mediums' will last around 20 laps.

But Vettel and Button will have to use the 'softs' later in the race.

"Obviously we are on a different strategy," Vettel said. "We will see whether it works tomorrow. But I am confident we did the right thing."

Mercedes team principal Ross Brawn said: "Those on the option will have to stop relatively early. It will be a fascinating race."


- Vettel's pace on long runs in practice is very good, on the medium tyre
- No team will use the soft for more than a few laps in the race
- Vettel starting 9th, and on mediums, gives a betting opportunity at an each way price which we don't normally see
- Expecting him to be on softs at the end when the track is rubbered in
- As the statements above show, the strategies should be very close

Wollaston wins 10-9, in a hairy one (+32.50)

Sadly my developing Dufner sweat at 75-1 appears to have floundered on a double bogey after water, so this was needed!

Crossbar!!

Couldn't have been closer. Got the write up correct anyway.

Updating Wollaston, Vettel, Masters

Profit £220.37 on £1322.75

ROI 16.7%

Still live

Mumbai
Robertson
Trump
UKIP 2nd in South Shields
Middlesex e/w
e/w Northants County Champ Div 2
Warburton  Lions Captain

What are your thoughts on this one now?  Press seem to be putting out a story every couple of days and swinging the betting all over the place, but barring O'Connell having a storming game last week nothing has really changed much.

If he had truly picked his captain already as quoted the other week, then the 100/30 available on Warburton looks worth a top up.

I was very tempted to top up

O'Connell came back from injury after the Six Nations and had a great game for Munster in the Heineken Quarters. They then went to watch him at Munster v Leinster yesterday

The Heineken Cup game on its own took O'Connell odds on

I am just not so sure, after all he captained a losing Lions side in South Africa

I am not sure if you also spotted that on R5L Gatland was interviewed and was asked if a captain of his has ever been a back? No, came the reply.


The realistic candidates are O'Connell, Warburton and Wyn Jones

Selection for the second row is just as tough as selection into the back row, O'Connell and AWJ might be first choice but then you leave out Parling etc. Not easy

I am talking myself into a press, I suppose

Jamie I am going in again

£20 Warburton 4-1 Ladbrokes

Markets now have, roughly

O'Driscoll 13/8
O'Connell 13/8
Warburton 4-1

On betfair Warburton is just under 3-1, though its a strange old illiquid market

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/british-and-irish-lions-tour/to-be-named-captain

As above I don't think Gatland picks BOD as captain, I still think Warburton is his man

Now have a max bet Warburton £30 at 11-4, £20 at 4-1

14 days til Squad announcement

Good luck with this Rich

Laddies wont entertain me and 13 miles from nearest shop

Bugger, missed this but did have a bit more on the 100/30 with Hills earlier on yesterday.  I did see the comment about picking a back - keeping an eye on the news having overinvested already in the market!

;)

Tighty got me, too - I had another £25 for myself today, at 4/1.

£25 Somerset to beat Surrey B365 Evens at T'Oval, County Championship Div 1

Somerset win toss and bat on a good pitch (Surrey go in with two spinners on 17th April...). Lots of batting, and I think a stronger side on this pitch

Somerset 343-8 after day 1, tick

Derbyshire 205-9 v Middlessex, tick

Essex 180 ao, Northants 150-5, tick-ish

Decent start to the county season


At 16-1 Northants remain absolutely tremendous each way value for cc Div 2. Seam attack now containing Crook from Middlesex has taken 25 wickets in two and a half playing days and I will be topping up to a max if I see 16-1 post this round of games

Price contracted again and no one wants to lay him on Betfair currently...

He's now 4/7 with ladbrokes. Well done with this value spotting.

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/ricky-walden-v-michael-holt/winner

£40 Holt to beat Walden at 13/8 Ladbrokes

Starts 10am tomorrow, best of 19

Walden has failed to get beyond the second round of 9 of the 13 ranking tournaments this year, and is definitely one of the better draws for a qualifier to get

Holt is a talent, albeit a touch inconsistent. Some evidence for this can be seen from his leading MAark Joyce in the final qualifier 7-1 but only winning 10-7. A touch streaky.

Has played at the Crucible before

Agree with this Tighty.  Might support Holt on the spreads, although could blow up spectacularly if it goes wrong!

Hope you ducked this one on spreads  :(

What do you reckon to Stevens v Fu this morning?  Stevens has awesome record here despite being well off best form in recent years, while Fu has had a pretty decent season and been smashing in centuries for fun.  Feels like Stevens gets priced too much on past glories and we should be opposing him somehow...

EDIT - Meant general form as do realise he made semis last year :)

Currently 1.41 to back on Betfair, & nobody else seems to still offer prices.

Hard for an ice-cream like me to know if the 1.41 reflects reality. The entire Market has around £12,000 matched, & I've no idea if that is a meaningful or significant sum for such a Market.

If a decision has already been made - & surely it has? - it would not be the sort of thing that would be easy to keep quiet, & plenty would know. But if it were Warburton, surely he would be 1.1 at best?

One of those where as long as you're happy not believing in superstition/fate/bokking you should be counting your money  ;hide;

I don't know

I don't think it took much to move the market...

I haven't heard of a single leak though, and I have been looking, so I doubt its that genuine a market....

but I do think its is most likely to be him 

Northants second bet added £7.50 ew at 12-1 yesterday

NFL draft Paddy Power, to be selected in first round

+3.5 Wide Receivers, £25 @ 6/5.
+ 1.5 Quarterbacks, £12 @ 11/8
+ 0.5 Tight Ends, £50 @ 3/10.

I only got restricted on the QB bet.

Like all these. Despite reports QBs not too good this year, part of which is based on RG3 & Luck being sooo good last year, several teams need QB reinforcements

"Hope you ducked this one on spreads"

Only just dared to check my balance on the laptop!  Oh well, live and learn.

gahhh didn't see this in time, absolute knock in.  been smashed to 1/7 now.  nice coup tighty.

What day/time is this draft thingie?
I've gone both barrels. All my PP account (~E200) spunked over the 3 bets.
In Mr Tightend we trust!

P.s. no probs if it loses.

starts 1am tonight

the tightend bet at 1/3 is the biggest certainty on this board ever

the qb is growing in confidence. all the suggestions are that there are 3-4 teams looking at trading back into the back end of the first round for a qb. one of the reasons for this is under the new cba, 1st round rookie contracts are 5 yrs, 2nd round 4...so if you get a qb there you have an extra year (qbs take time to develop, more than many other positions) of him under contract before the big deal or free agency

so nassib and barkley could go picks 26-32 to cleveland, buffalo, jets etc if they can find a trading partner

the wr bet is as priced, more 50-50%. a bit less likely if people are trading to get qbs

if we don't get 2 out of 3 up here I give up (until tomorrow)

Tighty thoughts on number of running backs in first round. I know nothing but ~80% of mock drafts have Eddie Lacey goin in round 1, and yet bookies varying odds but all around 8/11 etc

For over 0.5 RBs that is

The trend for running backs to be drafted in the first round is falling, only 9 have been selected in the first two rounds in the last 4 years. A position where you can get great value lower down the draft

That said I would not be surprised to see the St Louis Rams try to trade down from 22 to 30-35 to draft Lacy as a replacement for Stephen Jackson

Touch and go, to my mind

If I had to guess I'd say just inside the first round, rather than just outside..but don't think 8/11 is a 1/2 shot in reality...

@Sigmund Bloom, a better than most draft analyst

I have 9 sure-fire top 12 picks: OT Fisher-Joeckel-LJohnson--DT Lotulelei-Floyd--DE Jordan-Ansah-Mingo--CB Milliner - who are the other 3?

Candidates include Geno/Nassib/Barkley - Austin - Warmack/Cooper - Fluker - Vaccaro - Eifert - Richardson - Rhodes/Hayden - Watson


That's the three QBs and the TE in the candidates list.....

could go to bed then :-)

Sigmund Bloom

Although top 10 has its uncertainty, the bottom 10 will be where the real drama happens tonight as teams try to leapfrog each other for QBs

still evens over 2 PP, though the 11/8 over 1.5 was the price

You missed, to my mind the biggest rick of all, one firm (ahem) was 2/5 over 1 QB.  Should have been 1/50......we closed it at 1/20 after we explained to the compiler the flaw in his thinking!!!!

Oooops. I just didn't have the time to look at everything, particularly US markets.

Hope you have a successful night of it.

If the same happens this year as happened last year, where the first pick is made and then the next few are traded, what difference do you think that will make to your bets?

TightEnd, no difference, Tyler Eifertis going in first 20 picks

QB, probably no difference. Relying on trades at the back end of the round there

(Buffalo want Ryan Nassib badly, so the runes say)

WR, a bit more vulnerable, as the type of players being traded up for are pass rushers, linemen etc, and this pushes more receivers to more marginal first round status as the already good teams at the back end who can pick them as skill position "luxuries" will be higher up the draft....

I love the trades, like a sporting game of "risk" olr the back end of a monopoly game...working out who is risking what for what....

If only they didn't put it on in the middle of the night. It's almost like they don't care I have work in the morning.

Thanks for the answer, as ever, though.

As regards above bolded 'biggest certainty ever', can I ask how much, % wise, of your gambling roll you're putting on these bets.
I've put on ~E200, which is about 20% of my sports betting roll. 10% (E100) on the 1/3 shot, 5% (E50) each on the other two bets.
Are you in the same ballpark, % wise?

i'm only small fry :-)

think I have a combined £90 on the three bets, over half of that on a 1/3 shot.

Tony Bloom I am not.

here we go anyway.....

Wide Reciever is the 50-50% one here, could be 3, could be 4.....

I would definitely bet 0 QBs in the first round at 50/1

The teams that need QBs all have high draft picks, but no QBs in this class deserve to be a top 10 pick.

One or two will probably go, but 50/1 is a big price :-)

Eric Fisher OT number 1 pick

He was so lowly ranked coming out of High school, that when he went for a University visit, the football coach said

"thanks for coming, enjoy your visit. I am off to play golf"

Luke Joeckel next to Jacksonville

then the fun starts. Oakland raiders, just as likely to pick a punter as anything else.....

Because there is no state income tax in Florida, Joeckel will earn more net than the top pick will despite the contract slot being worth $2m a year less

Pressure on the Lions now, in need of a tackle and tackles have gone 1,2, might have to trade up

tricky guess for Oakland at 3. Mingo? Jordan? Floyd? Or trade it out.....

(amateur tv draft analysis by myself, to myself....!)

Trade...........

Miami for Lane Johnson I guess?

Raiders trade 3rd pick to Miami, who will almost certainly sign Lane Johnson

Woah, no one expected Dion Jordan there, well not to Miami.......

fun fun fun Eagles next

That just about fcks every mock draft I've read.

It will be the first of many surprises

Eagles..Lane Johnson possibly.

Right, that made sense

Onto  Detroit Lions

dee milliner cb a possibility, as is a pass rusher like Mingo

A lot of teams 5,6,7,8,9 want to trade lower, get extra picks later on

gets tougher to nail the picks from here

currently 3 of 4 lol

Very pleased with that.  Nice start Chip!

Left tackle predicted by me in January, I recall ;-0

Nice solid pick.

Ziggy Ansah next, guy went to Brigham Young, a Mormon college

Only played football for 2 years.....

Cleveland

Pass Rusher.Mingo. Barkevius Mingo, which is a name and a bit

but its Cleveland.....who cares.....

20 stone, runs 100m in 10.9 seconds.

That is scary.

Phew

4 out of 6



Arizona. Might be the first guard, have a very bad OL...Warmack or Cooper. Might be QB.

Basically things get murkier from here on.

Please keep this commentary running Tighty, loving it. I gotta get to bed, but I hope I can read the rest of it in the morning.

Time I retired, it sucks missing stuff like this, as it happens.

What an amazing thing this NFL is.

British football authorities, are you watching?

Cooper, ok we got that one above.


Bills, Tavon Austin the WR maybe

Could be a trade down as lots of teams want him and need to get ahead of the Jets and their two picks at 9 and 13

:o

Who is this Keith?

Jets at 9 and 13

expect a CB to replace Revis who was traded to tampa...Milliner I suppose

need offenive weapons, might be eifert the TE, a WR, outside shot Geno Smith if they dare give up on Sanchez at QB

Bink

Rams for Austin.

WR Count: 1

Ansah, the DE the Lions pick at 5.

Ezekiel Ansah from BYU

Freaky fast for his size, but very raw. Boom or bust stuff

Think the Bills/Rams trade means the Bills will take a QB, Barkley maybe?

If Austin is as advertised, will be fun to watch him against the seattle and 49er defenses in the NFC West...

got Jake Long to protect Bradford too

Perhaps my St Louis Rams to improve tip, now about 4 years old, might be closer to fruition

still got the rg3 pick to come at 22 too......

Bills seem to want Nassib

Coaching connectings from college

thought your annual improvers were KC :)

Nassib

I think Barkley is probably better. Was a top 5 pick in theory, then decided to stay in school. Lost his LT, who got drafted 3 to the Vikes, lost his best receiver and now a year later might not be in first round

think when all is said and done he will play as a solid league quarterback

So Buff might pick a QB

I think Jacksonville might pick Barkley first pick tomorrow, or get him in a trade late tonight....

them too :-) :-(

oh and the panthers

Every mock draft I read said Nassib was a 3rd round talent. 2nd round at best.

ok thats the Revis replacement


Tennessee? dunno. Shrug. Shariff Floyd? Star Lotoletui?

He is from everything I read

Will be fun to see if they pick him over Geno Smith.

Geno Smith was looking very depressed when they just showed him.

Two guards in the top ten for the first time ever

testament to the lack of star skill players in this draft


San Diego...has to be a d lineman...

Oakland sensible pick or QB? should be a richard seymour replacement, floyd or star L

It happens, should be going in next ten picks, maybe a bit later (I hope)

Aaron Rodgers was no 1 in every mock dradt, and sat there til pick 25 looking like his dog had died until the packers took him to back up then succeed Favre...

the fun is in seeing who was right and who is wrong 3 years down the line

Another OL 6 in the first 11 picks....!

not exactly Luck, RG3 and Trent Richardson then.....

Raiders trade down 10 places and still get Floyd?

Never did stuff like this when Al Davis was alive!

this is true. they might select Hayden the corner though, just for giggles

 would quite like the Jets to select our Tight End next please, get a bet up....

Hayden the corner then....

Lots of Defenisve Line value for Carolina, 3 of them sitting there, Floyd, Star, Richardson who mocks had top 5-10

Stupid profession,being a mock draft writer, really

Thats no fun - the fun was the fact the Lions managed to get it wrong for like 20 drafts in a row!!!

Draft coverage needs Jon Gruden.

Mayock and Irvin don't cut it.

And Faulk has hardly said a word

Eisen the only redeeming factor.

D-

I was tense before that Jets pick, and I don't support them....

and it wasn't either of the picks I needed, lol,or their fans wanted....

carolina, floyd

new orleans saints....hmmm, DL?

draft could go a lot of directions now...and so could my bank balance

Skill positions should start to go now (he says hopefully)

ok, the other DL for Carolina.

makes sense,  Carolina's defense is porous

all the top OL gone

all the DL going now

couple of safeties to go

couple of linebackers

another corner

so thats 20 picks left, and maybe 7-9 in those positions

so 11- 13 picks as you say 19 onwards WR,the TE, hopefully a QB or two

time for black coffee

oh, and how are the Jets scoring any points this year with Sanchez, no recievers,no running back and no tight end?

Buffalo pick EJ Manuel

It would be rather galling to lose the QB bet after MANUEL is selected and neither of Geno and Barkley are!

QB Count: 1

LOLOL I love the draft.

Pittsburgh Jarvis Jones to replace James Harrison

Dallas, oh dear Jerry Jones please do not have a brain fart. Just pick the best guy on your board please. Please. No drama

thank you in advance

49ers trade with Dallas.

Must be after a DT?

49ers trade up.............................

SF must be Shariff Floyd?

ok.

Now we need to see some receivers and Eifert please

EJ Manual pick got an F from the live chat I'm following lol.

Need Cincy to take Lacy please.

for crying out loud

kyle long, another offensive lineman

Strangest draft ever.

Teams seem to be panicking over OL..

Phew

the certainty comes in.

now running out of picks

need a run on receivers, fast

Minnesota should be one to replace Harvin

Houston could be another

need 4


then someone to trade into the end for a qb


time for another coffee.

GB the only chance for my Lacy first round bet now I guess.

Indy at a push?

Panic over though!

LOL - this must be the only night of the year that it is possible to have a sweat in every US pro sport and, unbelieveably, right now I do.  I need the mariners, Canucks, Clippers under 180 and another QB!!!!

Don't think Lacy is going 1st round now..

No panic about the TE, he was a cert to go, Cincy wasn't even an option predraft!

Dont rule out Denver.  I nearly backed that too. Cdnt get on.

Bet him at 2/1 thinking Cincy were likely to take him.

GB's running game is tez they could still pick him.

Dalton to AJ Green, Gresham and Eifert

very nice, going to be fantasy huge that offense

No first round golf bets?

tut tut

Minnesota. Please be a receiver in one of these two picks

Te'o first to give me a sweat for the second I suppose

Minny surely grabbing a wideout.

Wonder what Floyd has done to drop so far.

Indy a corner

minn wr

gb could be ol, could be rb, could be wr

hou wr

den ?

ne might be wr, welker has gone. usally defense though

stl rb could be lacy there

dallas fk knows, its jerry

baltimore linebacker


going to fall short on wr/qb unless trade ups

Ugh Minny was my WR cert.