blonde poker forum

150/300/25. table is amazing. Probably the softest table of the summer even with Jake there. Taking low variance lines where possible and Jake and I haven't tangled at all really. I'm down to 24k from 30k starting, Jake has doubled through on of the villains in the hand, and has loads - 75k+

Jake opens utg+1 800, MP flats, hijack flats folds to me in bb I raise to 3100 with Ahrt Kh. Jake makes it 5700. MP and hijack fold. I have 21 back after my 3bet. WWYD and why? (hijack and MP are both recs, one tight, one v spewy)

My perception of Jake is that he's a very smart player who will probably not be taking high variance lines either in this tournament on this table. I think he gets so many donations that he doesn't need to go to war with me in spots like this. Having said that, he knows I won't wanna get in 80bbs without a huge hand for the same reasons, so it makes it a good spot for him to fk with me esp when he has me well covered. We have some history from 2011 where he's seen me make two spewy jams deep in the Monte Carlo. So if I had to guess I'd say he might think I was liable to put it in lightish generally. I've grown up a lot since then :D

I obv don't wanna just flip for stacks vs JJ or QQ, and would feel like I'd made a massive mistake if I jam and run into AA/KK and bust level 4 of the main event getting in 80bbs with AK on a soft table. Having said that, folding seems bad, and peeling doesn't seem much better.

Surely when you 3b you had a plan for if he pulled the 4b out. What was this plan and what made you change your mind? Or was there not a plan? Did you expect folds/peels.

As played it is a horrible spot but i def wouldnt be folding here. Is it almost worth a peel and play the hand out. Must be getting the right price even vs a monster.

Maybe my answer isnt the most helpful but im a firm believer in having a plan for all eventualities when i'm putting chips in.

I would just flat pre if I didn't want to go with it

I don't mind clicking it back or just jamming.  If he has AA/KK, get there imo.  Assuming that he knows you're capable, this is just such an obvious squeeze spot and he has to give you no credit for a hand.  I'm really torn between shoving and 8300 call (I'm really not sure what looks weaker).

Sometimes we have to go with it though :(

We are getting such an outrageous price that folding seems very very meh. If the table is that outrageous we should flat pre?

This Jake Cody kid seems v talented. Absolutely disgusting spot. everything seems shit, every option is a level. Probably let him have this one, seen as the table is so good. Maybe jam it in his eye later with J2 or something

I'm going with it. Reckon he knows he can put u in a shit spot even with a hand this strong. Problem is its really awkward re sizing because if u go too small he may peel in pos. In his eye all in.

We're getting a nice price to flop A or K (probability c.40% if you hold QQ, so basic tinkering says 2/1ish at worst) and win chips. Plus our cool-haired villain is not going to get all fancy Dan on that kind of flop, so is there any harm in taking an unusual line of "call, then either c/f or bet, depending on if we hit"?

ABC ftw?

Beautiful 4b/f spot for him, puts you in a coffin with his entire opening range. Especially considering his stack size.

I overcall pre this early in this tournament to try find some hearts.

As played, 8900/c, jam any flop if he peels. Never peeling the 4b due to spr. Peeling and folding would be horrif imo.

I'm trying to play this as a very specific situation, so an abnormal line seems logical.

sizes seem nice to stick it in his eye here. circa 10k in pot and we are jamming 18k more.

Although I am an advocate of clicking it back, we just don't have enough chips to make it work, so getting em in seems about our only play.

I don't hate folding fwiw, given soft table and the like, but in that case id have been peeling pre (which I think would have been my actual play in this spot)

He can spend bout 7% of his stack to find out if a guy playing low variance wants to commit 100% of his

This is why I think jamming is the least favourable option.

Against me, it's a no brainer (as, you PHA lot have successfully argued any number of times, am I); but this is someone who knows what they are doing and you have an otherwise delightful set of tablemates.

All in imo. Not wanting to take high variance lines for him will make this more likely to be a bluff and less for value since getting in JJ here for him is kinda thin and high variance but bluffing is not.

Also I've been thinking a bunch about the main event. Everyone is taking incredibly nitty/low variances lines cos they dont wanna bust cos of their massive hedge etc etc. Surely if you stop taking a bunch of winning lines you have far less of an edge anyway. Also, if everyone if playing tight it is even more reason for you to go off like a train

Yeh just checked my sums, clicking it back means we're putting 34.4% of our stack in the middle so we can never be folding.  In which case, jamming 100% looks weaker, and if he has history of you spazzing out with stuff (like everyone does), then has to be a pretty clear shove.

Such a sexy hand and probably looks like a squeeze. I'm all-in here. Don't really like calling and don't really like folding. I suppose peeling pre would have been ok too

If bluffing is such a certainty then jamming makes his life so easy.

I'm min clicking it back so that he's forced to not fold, get him to either jam or peel his 67s.

Do we really want him peeling with hands like 67ss. Think he will just fold his bluffs anyway. He's not gonna hero 6 bet jam air here imo

Have we seen Villain on an Ipad reading Prose from a Poshboy?  I do think posting that you plan to avoid him on a forum of which he is a member was a mistake IMO.  Whilst Jake is not a regular reader someone could easily get that to him.

As played I think you can fold if the table is genuinely that soft. However, Jakes 4b range versus you whilst he has position, includes hands you beat a lot of the time.

He's just never going to hood flat you here.  If we 5b, were never folding, so shoving and 5 betting do the same job, except he might find some looser calls if he really thinks were fucking about.

Def think flatting is the worst of your options - not deep enough to call almost 25% of your stack pre and would be pretty tilting if you miss flop (which ofc you will more often than not), then fold. Perfect jamming spot imo, don't really like the min-raise as to me it suggests you're either button-clicking or trying to find a way not to commit all of your chips with a hand like A-K, whilst giving a very good players more options.

5b/calling is didgy imo, I think flatting i the best although I think you had quite a cool spot to flat pre-flop (as in don't squeeze), lots of gd flops with there likely to be some dominated Ax/Kx hands in play.

Getting such a good price now i think flattng better than folding, and not really a fan of 5betting, Jake wont expect you to be going of your lid for 80bigs, and wont expect you to expect him to be doing that either.

Given your overall gameplan, I'd definitely flat preflop rather than 3bet. Your hand plays very well multiway with the NFD possibility, and also it is great to have a deceptively strong hand when OOP vs a very good player. You are often going to flop a top of the range bluff catcher which is going to be really easy to play because you will beat much of his value range as well as his bluffs on many run-outs (a result of not 3betting is that you keep all dominated Ax and Kx hands in the pot). And if the hand gets to showdown it shows villain that you are giving him plenty of respect, sort of like implicitly saying "leave me alone and I'll leave you alone... let's just take it in turns to get the easier money". And finally, if you ever do get heads up in a pot with him (esp OOP) he always has to be worried about you having a stronger than usual range, which will prevent him fucking with you too much.

I've thought about this sort of thing too, not really to do with the ME but when we think we have say a 50% roi, if we don't take any spots with say a 10% return then how have we affected our roi overall. Is the 50% made up of all the 10% spots added together, or the overall equity of each decision averaged out to make 50% roi? If we fail to take some closer spots we potentially hurt ourselves in future situations due to our shorter stack. Someone waiting for a spot with an incredible return will capitalise on it for less than say someone who pushes all but the thinnest of edges.

9 handed u jammed his raised with suited gapper in the MC n get there on the river . FT u jammed into Rastafish with J2o n didn't get there . All that happened infront of Jake . He's taking note and I think his notes computer is working at that time . Just fold n wait for better spot . U r a clever kid .

Wouldn't of 3bet pre, think its a good spot to just peel. Keep in dominated Ax, dominated Kx and also dominated heart flush draws  ( the later part hasn't been spoken about ITT I don't think, but is something that allows us to win a big pot).
As played would gg

Def agree with flatting initially re honeybadger's logic:

"Given your overall gameplan, I'd definitely flat preflop rather than 3bet. Your hand plays very well multiway with the NFD possibility, and also it is great to have a deceptively strong hand when OOP vs a very good player. You are often going to flop a top of the range bluff catcher which is going to be really easy to play because you will beat much of his value range as well as his bluffs on many run-outs (a result of not 3betting is that you keep all dominated Ax and Kx hands in the pot). And if the hand gets to showdown it shows villain that you are giving him plenty of respect, sort of like implicitly saying "leave me alone and I'll leave you alone... let's just take it in turns to get the easier money". And finally, if you ever do get heads up in a pot with him (esp OOP) he always has to be worried about you having a stronger than usual range, which will prevent him fucking with you too much."

But once it's played out as it has, surely this is a shoving or folding spot? I'll let the better plays decide but just hate flatting/min raising further given stack sizes. Given it's the ME and perceived edge then folding can never be too bad here.

Jakes value range giving action and sizing is probably AA and KK, with the blockers we have, id be jamming.

3betting is truly woeful if were folding to jakes 4b in such a GREAT spot for him imo. If he has a blocker in his hand, especially Ax, I actually expect him to 4bet with a decent frequency in a spot like ths, given that it likely has the affect of making u want to fold the bottom of ur value range (QQ and AK).
All this talk of main event edges etc is really exaggerated imo. Yes, its  really great tourney, yes its only once a year, yes we may find "better spots", but what exactly constitutes as a better spot in a NLHE mtt? I fully expect us to be getting someone to 4bet fold for like 20bb and not having to show our hand down, seems like a pretty good spot to me. Yes, id rather have top set vs 2nd set in a 3bet pot, but its not always possible, plus we might just be against pleno and he will just fold a set np :-)
 Obviously FML spot If the guy wasn't jake, and was a guy from the south, drinking JD, aged over 50, wearing a cowboy hat.
Despite the above, I think peeling pre is still best given stacks, positions and also the fact were suited and were going mult-way.

THISSSSSS

also flatting pre is fine, might even flat this 4ball tbh and checkjam anything resembling equity and c/c anything good.

If you fold here he can pretty much runover you all day on this soft table.  Sometimes even with a soft table you have to get the other good players under control so that you can fully take advantage of the rest of the table

The hand is all about Jakes perception of you (and to a lesser extent his perception of how you perceive him).  You have already said he has seen you spew before but I am assuming he knows you and that you are capable so he is very likely to think you could be squeezing light here which widens his range.  He may also have read your post about wanting to avoid him and take a low variance route.  I dont see how we are significantly behind to his range here and we could quite easily be in great shape. 

This

Ship it in his eye, pretty sure we are good most of the time. Seems standard, if he has.aa/kk sux but im not folding or calling here vs a good/aggro player

ftr I posted about "avoiding him" with only an hour before the end of the day and when I had 20-30bbs so I don't think it would have made a difference even if he did read it. If we were still deep / had longer left to play then I agree it would be bad to post anything like that - though having said that it's just the smart thing to do when you have a table like that, and I'm sure he would expect it anyway. We both stayed out each others way for the first 6/7 hours of play but once I got short and he had chunks then he put the pressure on more.

About the hand, I think my options preflop (having 3bet) are to CALL or SHOVE. Clicking back is the worst option I think.

I felt it was an obligatory 3bet because of the 2 callers in the pot. One especially was a very loose player who I would expect to peel this 3bet v wide, and he was peeling EP opens with 95s, 42s, 89o etc so getting into a big pot with a top notch hand with him was very appealing to me.

The idea that 3betting a value hand and then folding to a 4bet being bad is just plain wrong in my opinion. There's several permutations of things can happen when we 3bet, all of which are positive for us. If we were to 3bet for value because of all these postive outcomes but fold when we get 4bet I think that's just fine in theory. Not necessarily with AK but say we had AQ or TT. This is all in theory and not about this specific hand obviously.

Its not always wrong to fold to a 4b when 3betting i agree with you there. But what was your plan when you did it? Whilst deciding to 3b you must of considered what action to take if he did 4b?

Was going to ask. What do you do with TT here?

I didn't think I'd get 4bet very often and since I decided that I was definitely going to 3bet, I thought I'd cross that bridge if I came to it.

If you're always going to do something, eg bet river when checked to with AK on K2259, then it's perfectly fine to consider what to do when c/raised when that actually happens.

@Kinboshi, I'd probably just flat TT pre, probs squeeze JJ and jam over a 4bet since it doesn't flop as well as AKs, I felt I could take a flop with AKs here profitably given getting such a good price and having such a strong hand.

Seen as we dont really have a plan for getting 4b my guess is that we have to take the easy route and mine the shit out of it.  I would probably be happy to 5b shove it too though.

Everything's been said already and I agree with everyone.

Flatting pre the first time. In general when we have a good player opening and one or more bad players calling and then we act, it's good to squeeze wide because the good player will recognize that he will be sandwiched at every point in the hand, i.e. worst possible relative position, while the bad players will be happier to call with a wider range as they are closing the action. However I feel that here that's outweighed by the deceptive value of having Jake or others put lots of money in on A and K-high flops, not expecting us to turn up with a hand as strong as AK. Also that Jake isn't just a good player, he's a great player and will take delight in fking with you as he has done here.

As played tho we have a very easy jam.

How can you agree with everyone and then say we have a very easy jam when many people have said to peel the 4b and see a flop?

It's 100% NOT an easy jam.

Oh did the majority not say to jam?

I don't think we're jamming for value. Even with our history (and it's questionable he remembers it) it's very unlikely we're getting a call from AQ. We're jamming to protect our hand, because it's a lower variance line, because it sets a good table image (that when we 3b we're willing to go with the hand - our 3bs should get more respect in the future) and because sucking out on AA/KK with AK is absolutely awesome.

I can't honestly understand the logic of putting 80bb in the middle with AK against the only player at the table we have any worries about.

In a vacuum, it's an obvo-jam, but this is contextually a very different situation. We can play very ABC against Mr Cody and then do our best Phil Ivey impression with the other seven players.

To me, the way this is being discussed by people whose opinions obviously carry greater weight than mine just seems bizarre. We end up some of the time being asked how we lost our chips and having to explain we got into a pissing contest with the only bloke with a badge and a bracelet at the table, being outlasted by three old ladies, a man who rustles pigs, a banker, a satellite winner who has never played live before and Wyoming Willie, the 1954 All-American Poker Series Kansas City Stud Lowball winner.

Conversely, I think the only player at the table I'd pretty happily snap jam this against is Shaun's friend Jake.

Having no self perceived edge is incredibly liberating

Don't get me wrong. I think Jake's range here is far wider than the average player's but that isn't justification for the consequences of running into the top of his range with the bottom of ours.

I think it is

I understand what you're saying but theres no need to try and out fox the fox when there's easier pickings to be had elsewhere.  On a side note though, if I did manage to out fox the fox, that would make me verrrryyyyyy foxy.

This is kind of my point. The two of them haven't tangled all day until this hand. Both of them know where the juicy stacks are and that each others are the most difficult ones to get chips out of.

My point is, play straightforward and cautious poker against Jake and then normal, clever stuff to attack the others. As the table gets tougher, you widen your range and play more subtly against the stronger players gradually.

Wyoming Willie tho

That man's got a tongue that could make a hooker blush.

Exactly.

Yeah but if we're 3b folding AKs vs jake probably don't have an edge to preserve

Yes I agree with what you are saying, though I think you have the terms slightly the wrong way around, but what you mean is exactly in line with my thoughts.

Playing ABC vs Cody would be to jam here imo. And we don't need "clever stuff" to attack the others. We need ABC stuff there.

Jake played the following hand vs one of the guys in this hand. He raised with 88 from early position. The chap called with 95 suited. 982rainbow flop, Jake bet 1200, the chap raised to 2800, Jake made it 5800, the chap made it 11200, Jake shoved for 27k, the guy called.

That is pretty ABC from Jake and he's just been gifted 90 big blinds. Passing up this edge in favour of future situations like that with a 2 hour clock and plenty of time to wait to "cooler" the others is definitely the way forward. If he goes after me again and again then I'll have to adjust, but since this is the first time that we've battled I think jamming could be a mistake.

In my experience of playing Jake he will go up against your first time more often than not. He won't pass up the op esp with your stack size here Probably why he's won a comp or two

Yes, I got the terms wrong as you said. Yet another example of me looking sixty when trying to talk like a PHA wizard.

Sigh...

wow, whatever the other fella had in the 9-8-2 hand, not good play!

I think flatting has a lot of merits, but as soon as we 3b I really think we have to go with it.  If we're going to 3b fold AKs here that has be extremely exploitable.  I also think flatting for a 5th of our stack hoping to hit a flop is a little on the ambitious side.  

I have never played with Jake so have no idea how he plays at all but a good player once told me the first time a seemingly competent player 3b's/4b's you you should always put in another bet if stacks are deep enough etc because the confidence you gain/confidence he gets knocked and the likelihood that it decreases the amount he will get OOL make it so profitable even more so than the chips won. So it isn't inconceivable that Jake is 4betting 100% his opening range for these reasons.

So many levels, it is all v interesting though.

fwiw im in the peel pre camp too.

the root of the problem is re-raising & not being comfortable with any following actions.

Peeling the 4b is what I'm advocating here not 3b/folding but it might the case the jamming is the best of a bad bunch.

I really didn't expect Jake to 4bet that often here, I thought he'd fold a large % of the time, and call sometimes all of which I am "comfortable" with.

7896/call

Interested after reading how the hand actually played out after jake 4 bet ?

Just saw positions. Gross

How does he perceive our range when we call the 4bet

I think he is wayyyyyyyy more weighted to bluffs

I want to say polarised but I wouldn't expect Alex to flat here for nearly 25% of his stack.  

same

you could just call and make sure the flop doesnt have any T's or 4's on it then go all in

That's lowest variance route imo.

This.

All this way over my head in general but thrilling reading/learning.

My 2p worth if its appropriate, what is your perception of what Jake thinks of you?

As i see no reason, as its clear Jake would have the same read of the table as you, ad think of you in the same manner you see him, so is it not conceivable he bets like this for the very reason that is being debated here?!

He who shoots first so to speak?

I don't see how we don't jam. Calling seems like the next best option, I don't mind it too much. Folding surely out of the question and means the squeeze is really bad.

Edit: Looked back and these are basically my thoughts worded better:

People keep agreeing with this, but it is still misleading. 

We have 3 bet now, so we are only calling off an additional 10% of our stack.  So calling to hit a flop we hit a third of the time is no longer ambitious, it can't really be that bad.   

There are a ton of post flop permutations that would be really hard to quantify accurately, but I'll have a go at explaining why I think it's ambitious.

Although its only additional 10%, were going to be committing 5700 of our 24k stack (24% of it) and there will be roughly 13,000 in the middle and we have 18,300 left behind.  Not only that, we are OOP to an good thinking player.  As soon as he c.bets, which I suspect he will, I see no way of us not sticking it in his eye given the AMAZING price we will have to do it AND two overs.  We almost have to. 

If you wanted to go down the route of hitting enough of the flop to go with before committing more chips, then I would suspect we would hit this flop hard enough for you consider going with it around 35% of the time (say 1 in 3 to make my life easier).  So 2/3 times were going to check fold which nets us -11,400 chips.  So the 1/3 times we do continue, we need to make more than 11,400 chips to make the play profitable. Given that we have 18k behind, we basically need to play for stacks 2/3 times when we flop it to make it profitable.  It means we need to him to double barrel or call our check shove on 2/3 flops, and I think that's going to be a little ambitious given what our perceived range will be when we flat this 4b OOP.  I really think we struggle to get paid on A/K high flop.

If we do hit the flop and flat, our hand is just so face up its unbelievable as we are never airballing having put 11k+ of our 24k stack in the middle (creating a 24k pot with 13k behind).  The only option we EVER have is to check shove IMO, and there's still a chance he might give up on the hand and just shut down after the 4b unless the board delivers.  And obviously if we're going to check shove our made hands, we have to check shove all our bluffs too.  I think making enough money in the long run to make flatting profitable is thin / not possible.
5b shoving pre, on the other hand, will be massively profitable IMO. 

I can show the maths for this too but don't want to bore everyone with more of my drivel!!!!

But we have already got paid: we have inflated the pot where flatting was nearer optimal, so now we can call for a small % of our stack and:

- jam it in his eye if we hit A or K a third of the time
- win chips on the odd occasion we flop the universe
- get away if we whiff and lick our wounds for the next hand.

not sure much of that is true

flatting here is terrible OOP vs a good player. stack sizes just don't work - see tomsom post

Alright I couldn't help myself!!!!!

Had to run the 5b shoving option.  So assuming that we think he can do this pretty light and make our lives difficult (which I think we pretty much agreed he could), I have assigned the following 4b'ing range:

77+,A6s+,K9s+,QTs+,J9s+,T8s+,T5s,98s,87s,A9o+,KTo+,QJo,Q3o,JTo,T6o (20.8%)

The T6o/T5s type hands are just to represent some absolute airballs he might do this with.

I assumed his 5b calling range was AK and JJ+.  Soooo plugging the numbers into my spreadsheet I calculate we net +4850.79 chips by shoving here.  A gain of +16bb can't really be a bad job.  

Of course if you think my ranges or assumptions are way out then LMK, and I will happily plug the numbers for your range of hands (I need a 4b'ing and a 5b calling range to make it happen).

Tomsom, your maths is completely off in this analysis. And I don't just mean a little bit wrong, I mean hugely so. Give it a check through...

you missed out the T4 yo

Help me out badger, is toooooo early!!!!!!!!!

flat pre

Peeling the 4b is just an abs disaster. This is not a cash game. We define our range so much that when we check the non Q/K/A board Jake can just bet his 67s and the hand is over.

More so, when we do flop dece, he has such an easy fold and we have thus won the absolute minimum. The implied odds of peeling are joke bad. Jake is just always going to play perfectly against us. When we peel, we're risking over 25% of our stack with an almost 0% chance of fully realising our equity when we hit. We're not playing against a spazz here.

He also never has AA/KK, because he's never going to want to loose the lose player out of the pot with such a strong hand. It's just a spot where he can mug you 90% of the time.

EDIT: Seems tomstom has posted basically this already. Should read before I post D'oh

We are priced to make the call and can donk lead whenever we hit and he can fold 100% of the time and it is still profitable for us.  It can't be an absolute disaster or joke bad. 

Some people need to do more listening and less talking here. 

Maths should take into account the fact that his value 4b range is a and kx heavy with always 2 blockers and his 4bet bluff range should always have at least 1 blocker in this hand

I haven't got time because I am grinding. But just for example:


If we call the 4bet preflop then c/f the flop this does not net us -11,400 chips. This should be simple to see. We have only put 5700 in preflop, after all! And also, since we have already 3bet we have only put an additional 2600 in vs the 4bet.

Im with Pinchop

Calling pretty much turns our hand face up. Lets assume we hit our A or K, what part of Jakes range are we getting value from?

Why would we lead when we hit? Gotta give Jake a chance to continue with his T4o

We are going to miss this board a tonne - so we just give up?

the stack sizes here make calling a disaster. Making money post flop in this hand is going to be pretty tough

Makes bluffing range is ax and kx so when we do both hit I,guess we get at least a street if not two.

I played similar hand


I open 700utg
Btn flat
Elio 2250 in bb
I go 5750

He folded ak face up

Am off to the park.  Gl with the grind.

Running this scenario 1 billion times or w/e, committing 5700 to pot then folding 2/3 times is -11400 no?  So the 1/3 times we continue we have to make those 11400 chips back plus more to show a profit.  

Oh I see the way you are thinking! Still not right though tbh. We only have to call an additional 2600.

Which in a cash game would be completely fine as the pot is laying us amazing odds.  But in tournaments we only have a finite number of chips, so we would be worried about our total investment in the pot as we do not have the option to reload.

Yeah but that wasn't what I was quibbling with, I was just saying you'd got your maths wrong.

BTW you really don't want to hear my opinion on 'tournament life' considerations lol! ;)

Lol, we probably have the same opinion on tournament life considerations by the sounds of it.  I've got a ton of thoughts in my head and I can't put them into a clear story atm.  Probs best for both our mental states if we just agree to disagree on the merits of flatting the 4b and get on with our lives though lol.

Yeah good idea. Although I have at no stage said that I think flatting the 4bet is the best play. I just pointed out errors in your maths, nothing else.

However, I actually do think that flatting the 4bet might well be best. So I have said it now ;)

No more now... gotta get busy.

U don't name drop enough.

Stacks sizes exactly the same? History the same? What did u have?

Pleno you're insulting yourself, elio obv thinks your a fishy uncapable player so you just have it innit.

<3 plinop

Who is Elio?

elio fox = smocklrocklfloc   (sic)

(http://edge1.pokerlistings.com/assets/photos/IMG6630.JPG)

Tomsom, the point I think you're missing is now we're here having 3bet - which I think we all agree is was not the best play -  before we've reacted there is 10775 in the pot and we've got 2600 to call so if we wanna play exactly for our equity now wee only need 19-20% equity against his range (2600/13375=0.194) which I am surrrrrre we will have.

When you say calling the 4b nets us -11400 do you mean if we call the 4bet, and stack of of 1/3 of flops (is that the actual number of flops we have equity to stack on or did you guess?) then with the equity vs that range OTF we'll net -11,400. Because JUST calling a 4bet for 2600 can never result in a -11,400 result surely? If you're saying calling a 2600 4bet and only being able to stack off 1/3 of the time and being a 4x loser on our call then the ONLY conclusion we can draw from this is that we should FOLD to his 4bet surely? You can work our on odds oracle what equity we flop vs his range what % of the time. Also the ranges have to be completely off, you're suggesting he opens and 4b's Q3o and that he'll open and 4b/fold TT there is no way that can be right surely? I'm being kinda counter productive here because I don't really have better ranges to give you, but I know that can't be right (or I least I dont think)

However that's ofc assuming we can play perfectly postflop vs him which we ofc can't, we'll fold incorrectly on some bricked boards, and we'll commit chips incorrectly on some boards as well - but most board we "hit" will be quite easy to continue on relatively simply, the times we're getting exploited for our call is when it comes J63r and AQ/AK or a bluff c-bets us off the board. I have plenty of opinions about Jake's range here but mostly from talking to him and not playing with him so I don't think it's right for me to share that. Jake is very clever with his sizing here.

Its pretty bizzare to me that in one thread people are saying they would fold QQ to a blind shove in level 1 of the main, but its a "stnd" play to 5bet 80big blinds in vs an UTG open/4bet in level 4. JAke has seen his cards remember. At least we assume so

This.

I agree I botched this one with 3betting in the first place. But once I have, I have to at least call this 4bet.

i'd rather call vs someone not as good post as Jake. when we're going to have little idea how he perceives our range for this and can easily level ourselves.

jam now you've 3bet

Pretty simple flat pre but you are in a world of pain right now, IMO the way its gone you have a tough decision but i would put him under pressure and ship it in!  if he has JJ+  good luck to the fella from Rochdale!

All been said before but it all depends on dynamic, if you been playing tight peeling best, if you been aggro or your names moorman squeezing is going to be better.

I'd expect Jake to flat AA and KK a decent amount with the fish in and your range being kind of wide too.

So as played putting it in there's too much in the middle

Don't mind the 3b pre. Obv when you get 4-bet it's annoying (although not so bad). Definitely would flat here a reasonable % and 3-bet some too. Once you've been 4-bet I think Jam>5-bet-call>>flat>fold. Really don't like flatting or folding much tbh. I mean Jake is obv a thinking player and knows you won't just be lol-peeling with 89s here OOP. Also don't see him 4-betting with any dominated Ax for value, so he can play pretty well post vs you as in reality your hand strength is fairly face-up (88-QQ, AQs+ or something). vs someone else, or if a fish had peeled the 4-bet too, then I don't mind peeling so much.

not calling a 4bet to hit...

calling a 4b to take our range against his. this is under the assumption you have a solid/good image.

i would typically assign a good players flatting range of big broadways and some AA/KK.

keeping in all his tosh and his Ax and Kx 4b bluffs is nice.

that said id prefer flat pre (over 3bet) and also prefer 5b jam (over flatting his 4bet), but with a read that hes very likely to be light i think i prefer flatting his 4ball.

We shouldnt have much 89s as theres way too much value to flat them than squeeze but if we did surely we should be lolflatting here? Hes trying to make us fold our air and nothing else surely

How did it end up?

I think 3b fold is possibly the worst way to play this hand. If we 3b we surely 5b jam! (For all the reasons stated before). If we're not jamming then flat pre. 5b cib isn't very good either IMO.

Yeah time for results please!

Wait till I've busted main!

October??

long ft bubble

My bad

right, im out :D

so i peeled the 4bet and it came T82 i think, one of my suit he bet 3.6k into about 12, I called figuring I had a good price to

a) bink an ace or king on the turn
b) bink a heart on the turn
c) have him crushed anyway and he may give up and I get to showdown and win.

Optimistic, yes. Bad, possibly.

The turn was a J and he set me in and I folded.

/end thread please please?!

Oof! Horrif hand gotta jam pre particularly as we block AA and KK which are his only real value hands.

I think the flop is pretty bad personally, yes you might have the best hand, yes you might hit an ACE/KING but it's a very awkward spot with really messy stacks and its not like Jake is gonna misplay many turns given his range.

I think calling PF is ok personally, you're getting a verrrry veryyyy good price, as has been said many times 3betting PF is the mistake.

Mate why do you think 3betting pre is the mistake? If we have premium and 3betting is likely to generate more action from worse why is that bad for us?

Jake can decide we're fos and 4bet or Jake can fold and we pick up a loose call from a worse player. The mistake imo is fps and not smashing it in pre. People are talking about the bb's but it's the SPR which is relevant. We go to the flop with over 13k in there and only 18k behind, oop vs a better player, who was the pre-flop aggressor with 75k, pretty suicidal coup really. Alex says he doesn't want to flip vs jacks, but given the factors 50% is a much better coup than this, and that's if he gets called at all. Good for the rep vs pig farmers as well. Alex plays the hand good if he has AA imo but equity plummets post wit AK & good villain prob gets away when you hit anyway. This is the problem when you don't believe in reverse implied odds ;)

If we presume Jake is the most likely person to call the 3bet, which seems reasonable, we are effectively isolating one of the best players in the field when we could call and overflush/overstraight any of the people behind. However, I completely agree that 5bing is better than calling, but I definitely believe if we were presented with either calling or folding then calling would have to be correct.

Yea not folding so guess calling is better. I'm not feeling the presume villain calls theory as isoing Alex hu with all the factors against him seems pretty smart, calling seems more likely to generate multiway farmer action which wont be as good for him.

Jake is the least likely to call the 3bet imo. My range is really strong in this particular spot and we're not deep enough for him to peel like 98s for 2.3k more when I have 20k back. The recs in the hand are less likely to care about this and will just flick it in (see my exit hand lol).

I personally think that if Jake is bluffing preflop then it is pretty bad, since my range preflop is so strong (probably JJ and AK) and he can't expect me to fold much (if any) of that range.

I mean everyone expected me to jam AK here (and it's arguably the best play once I've 3bet), so he'll probably think the same, and therefore can expect 0 folds from my 3betting range.

However he may perceive my range to be wider than JJ+ and AK, but other than two light jams he's saw me make 2 years ago, he has no real reason to think this based on our history.

Jake gets people to spew off constantly vs him because of his PS badge, triple crown and they all remember the T4 hand in the WPT. He's probably had it in every 4/5/6 bet pot ever since lol. Yesterday someone 6bet jammed QJ into his Aces in the main event lol.

My conclusion: He had it, but I still butchered it!

I wrote call the 3bet but should have wrote continue. This seems like a really solid coffin spot for him to put you in with very little risk. I thought because his range would be strongest but forgetting the field is full of fishcakes ^.^

If your calling AK then do you jam JJ? Or peels pre?

I think it was a mistake personally because I don't think we can get out stack in in good shape pre-flop (I think 3b/5b jamming is pretty bad personally) I always think 3b/folding is a HUGE shame when we have a premium, suited hand multi-way, there will be lots of worse A* hands, and K* hands in the field, and maybe even some worse hearts. Lets say jake for example has AJ, and we flop A high its going to be very hard for him not to lose 2 bets to us post-flop. If one of the weaker players has KJ and it comes Kxx then we'll v likely get three streets.

Obviously a lot of the time it comes J74 or something and we'll c/ fold but this is the main its a ridic long tournament, AKs vs a strong players UTG open and few peels 80bb deep isn't actually as premium a spot as it sounds. When the stacks are deeper things get a little more complex than just making pots bigger with premium hands. The immediate value of our hand becomes less to consider and the future playability of our hand down the flop/turn/river (as it's likely we'll have to play all those streets with chips behind) should become a main consideration, if you think that your hand might struggle down the streets then keeping the pot small and under-repping your hand is usually the safest way to play it, and this is the type of tourney where playing it safe is usually ftw.

If we're 3betting we should be doing so because we're very confident we could 5bet ALLIN over a 4bet, because we're not Jake has been able to very cheaply put us in a real tizzle here, I mean he might have just had KK but even if that was the case here we've given him an opportunity to put us in a very bad spot.

Alex if you're suggesting your 3b range is JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AKs then i'm fairly sure 3betting at all is pretty bad, and I'd be very surprised if that how anyone perceives it.

Surely if this is your range, and Jake shouldn't ever be bluffing then you need to fold JJ and QQ to the 4bet no?

So peelers and going broke on any A or K high board I assume?

It's fine to have a faceup strong range to a good player when there's two others in the pot that'll peel 52s. You're forgetting about these two, one of them was literally the worst. Not 3betting JJ+ and AK just because jake will probably realise we have a good hand is terrible imo.

Why would Jake expect me to be light here? And pretty clearly I wouldn't be 3betting 99 or AJ or anything here...

Not saying he thinks you're light I'm just saying if you ask him, or any other generic good player in his spot I would lay you 50-1 they wont say your range is entirely JJ+/AKs.

Those guys in the pot are all well and good, but Jake has the strongest range of all of them, and that has to be fulll consideration, if Jake folds and one of them calls with A8 then obviously this is fantastic but so is Jake calling and open mucking the flop.

Just saying that if your range, and perceived range is JJ+/AKs and Jake cant ever be bluffing then AKs is a very trivial fold to his 4bet?

Why is his 4 bet bad when he's put u in a coffin with a hand this strong? Just admit u got pwned by the guy

This isnt what im saying at all... I have a good hand, lets raise is kinda basic thinking, how does the hand play vs Jake's range, vs other players ranges in the pot and how much visibility will you have down the streets?

Obviously vs an open, and two calls you are crushing everybody, once you 3bet and get called by Jake you're still doing good, but not quite AS good and you might have playability issues on later streets, you might force A7 and K8 out from the other players and Jake might 4bet in which case now your hand is doing kinda badly.

Nto saying their is no merit to 3betting, there clearly is.

What do we always say to John Black, basic thinking ftw! I have a good hand, let's raise.

I've already admitted that :D

When we call flop we already have less than a psb so playing thru the streets is not on the menu imo. Villain can put us in several tough spots at a very cheap price and when he picks up some equity or has enough info to read us for AK/AQ he can just flick us all-in ott. That's just good poker and he doesn't need the nuts to do it. Prefer to jam pre and count to 2 than deal with this mind fuck.

This is exactly why 3betting pre-flop might not be the best play, obviously if you're happy 5betting all-in here then its all gravy. I promise you though 3b/5b Jam is not very good here, maybe 5b jamming is better than calling the 4bet (despite me previously saying otherwise) for these reasons ^

I can't see how 3 bet/5 bet jamming can ever be particularly bad, although I do prefer flatting original raise to keep it lower variance/small ball play & for deception when we hit. We have A-K and therefore blockers to Aces/Kings so it's highly unlikely we'll be worse than a flip if called. It looks very strong too so, there must be decent fold equity for non-premium Jake pairs (possibly folding 9's/maybe 10's downwards?). Ultimately it's a tournament and you have to take risks at some stage to create a stack where you can put pressure on/take hits with marginal calls, a suited A-K with a lot of chips in the middle and not much wiggle room to play down the streets seems a good shove spot to me.

i refer to previous point.

We're all folding QQ to a blind ALL-IN the first hand the tournament, but we;re all happy to 3b/5b jam AKs vs an UTG open/4b from the only other good player at the table?

first person to explain this to me wins a pack of Haribo, one of the big ones.

Normal haribos or tangfastics?

Because Jake will be folding a decent %. Not that I am folding QQ to a blind all in anyway.

I would venture that once we call the 4bet and go to the flop we lose this pot about 100% of the time unless we hit. I would suggest that calling oop vs a better player with a much bigger stack to hit cards is a pretty shitty plan. It's a much better plan to win the pre-flop war with AK vs the best player because his range to 4bet us is the widest, he will be the one at the table considering the stacks and the tough spots it generates for us when he 4bets, so he won't need AA/KK to do it, and we have blockers to those combos. Even if we hit villain can get away or still have us crushed with AA/KK.

Alternatively jamming wins us the dead money a lot of the time or we can flip which means we win the whole pot a lot of the time. Not wanting to jam first with good FE because we don't want to flip vs this player is the mistake because 50% equity is a good coup for us. FWIW i'm happy peeling the open too but once I 3bet I would expect a 4bet and I must look to win the pre flop war with a great pre flop hand because the alternative, as we have seen, is a pretty shitty plan.

Jamming AK all-in is a better feeling and easier to do than calling QQ all-in, and don't forget first hand of wsop ME we are all scared and talking about shoes
.
Do they do just the fried eggs? If they do i'll have bag of fried eggs pls.

"We??!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?"

Peeps be wrong technically but have their own reasons which is obv a okay!

(https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS5gZTq1oWsnVSyJzoBhVVxfFt62eHTT5PER6qzMyyHHmAgrSI4qQ)

OK, OK. :)up

ClickClickClick.

jus reading pha like this shows the diff between elite players and the rest. JC wins a fair size nsd pot prob with T4 or other junk. On the way he's got a guy in knots with AKhh and prob owned the table full of rec players all day if one of the competent players at the table gets premium hands and is in bits how to play it vs him.

Prob flat pre, as played id fold to 4 bet, doubt he's ever light,I'd imagine his range is kk+ with the chance of qq. Hand plays badly against his range.

fuck me a simple preflop spot gets 10 pages?? either im way behind or we just click/call??? anything bar a click/call pre doesnt show jake enough respect
rofl at everyone wanting to flat and play a flop vs a really fucking clever player instead of just taking the preflop edge we have with AKs????  
have the results been posted or am i going crazy? obv how the hand played out jake has him crushed but wtf? who in actual time doesnt click/call this? or just jam

(http://1.2.3.12/bmi/i.imgur.com/02lV6iu.gif)

 :P

even when everyone thinks poker is getting tougher you get people overcomplicating and overthinking hands, thus turning it softer. weird

Not really been over-complicated here imo, the 3bet is undoubtedly bad (there been a few longish posts explaining why its bad) and the discussion is what to do now we've been 4b. Some people think its a jam, some people think it's a fold, some people are saying well we're getting 5-1 nearly even OOP might be worth flicking a call in and seeing what flops. Not that un-common for a collection of people to think 3 different things about a "deep-stacked" spot...

That aside you are correct lol

Yes but now you're simplifying and uncomplicating it, thus making it harder again.  :(