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1  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: I don't know what I'm talking about, help!!! on: April 07, 2016, 10:10:45 PM
Yeh that's reasonable, just trying to work it out in my head and finding it difficult.  Guess it's just something I need to learn from experience!  Thanks for taking the time to respond.
2  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / I don't know what I'm talking about, help!!! on: April 07, 2016, 08:22:50 PM
I'm fairly new to sports betting and wondered if it was possible for someone to help me out with some in-game situation maths please as I'm not really sure how to work out what I need (or if it's possible).

The home team are 1 nil up at half time.  If I know that a home team have won the 2nd half by >=1 goal in 90% of previous games and that the away team have lost by >=1goal in the last 75% of games (assuming that all my data is relevant) how would I work out what markets to look at and what would be a favourable price?  The market I looked at was Asian Handicap, Home 0.0,-0.5 but wasn't sure how to work out what the price should be.

Apologies if this is too broad a question or one that can't be answered but I'm struggling to understand the transition between the data (assuming it's accurate and relevant) and exactly how to utilise it.  Thanks in advance if anyone can help me out with this, but if its a silly question then please just tell me to gtfo.
3  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: Tea Time Tales: A Fish and his chips on: March 11, 2016, 07:27:08 PM
The had a pretty ridiculous hand on a spazzy 2/2/4 PLO game, where i think I made the right call, 8 straddle is on i think i open  three clubs utg to 20, and all hell breaks loose. 4 way all in by the time it gets tome, i cover all, but its £500 to call off, with about 1.5k in the middle give or take. I called it off. Think its fine in 6 card omaha, what do people think?

Had a couple of online sessions since, and havent gone particularly well, played wednesday and lots with aces a lot, happens yeah, but still doesnt feel great when you brick an entire day.

4  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: The 'tomsom87' Testimonial Grind on: March 06, 2016, 03:25:53 AM
I have aces a lot!!!  What stakes was this?  I've played quite a lot of different stakes on Sky whilst I adjust to the games, they are much different to other sites (really bum hunty).

I have one more year after this one, so I qualify in summer 2017 and will start teaching full time in Sept 2017.

As for a diary update, my move to Sky has been going alright so far, had a 4fig winning session last night and feel a bit disappointed I didn't get more but learnt a few lessons so won't be complaining.  I also made Day 2 of the WPT 6 max tomorrow with a relatively bowl stack, but 21bb is enough to be working with.  Hopefully will see some heroes at DTD tomorrow for some 6 max punting.

IRL, I start at my block placement school next week which is quite an important part of my training so hopefully I make a good first impression, it will go a long way to making sure I get good marks at the end of the year.  I have one science exam in 2 weeks then I have a fairly substantial Easter holiday from the 18th March to 12th April.  I have an assignment to do in that time but it's only 2000 words so shouldn't be too much of an issue and leave some spare time for punting.

I also have a cottage booked for a week in Cumbria where Sarah and I can take the dogs so I'm really looking forward to that!  I start my 6 week block placement on the 25th April so the diary will almost certainly go quiet during that, after which I have 5 months of full time punting.  Think that's probably enough of an update for one night, hopefully see some of you at DTD tomorrow and GL at the tables!!!
5  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: The 'tomsom87' Testimonial Grind on: March 03, 2016, 02:47:46 AM
The testimonial has not got off to the strongest of starts, however can't really judge too much on the strength of one weekend of live poker.  The main was possibly one of the worst days I've had in live poker for a long time.  Don't fancy going into details cause it just sounds like a whinge, but poker-wise the weekend was one to forget.  It was to nice to catch up with and see a few people at the weekend I don't get to socialise with very often, though DTD was ridiculously busy and it was at times hard to find people.

The après-poker activity however was certainly eye-opening to say the least.  Strong performances from both Jon Gill and Tommy Bingham on Saturday led to one of the best nights out I've had in ages.  Additionally, congrats to my caucasian Leo McClean on not being completely bowl for a change and managing to win a few bags for himself.  I will have to rethink my 'One-cash McClean' nickname now.      Inconsiderate.

For the first time in a while I actually have a light couple of weeks with Uni stuff before I start my block placement and more assessments, including a science test that I'm actually looking forward to.  I will probably be spending my week messing about with PioSolver (my favourite toy) and maybe doing some punting on Sky too.  Oh, and a bullet online in the 6max this weekend too.  Plenty to be going at anyway, GL at the tables!!!!
6  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Here we go again... UKPC interesting spot :D on: March 01, 2016, 10:38:12 PM
Think I'm in the fold camp.  Even if we can show a slight profit from jamming, we can do better things with 35bb in this comp.
7  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: Sky Poker £1m GTD UKPC Main Event Day Ones on: February 27, 2016, 11:10:38 PM
utg raises to 4500 at 1-2k

chris vernon peels in the sb playing 28,000


vernon check calls 4800


vernon check calls 10,000


check check

vernon shows down  and is good

What the hell is this hand?! Definitely didn't play that hand!

Standard river, seems a bit ambitious though?
8  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Updates / Re: Sky Poker £1m GTD UKPC Main Event Day Ones on: February 26, 2016, 02:14:06 PM
Leo McClean is here too

I'm not entirely sure tighty, but i think the dealer on our table might be Leo's brother!
9  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Quite fml spot live £1-2 on: February 24, 2016, 07:13:43 PM
gotta just look him in the eyes and see if he's bluffing or not unfortunately.

likely he isn't.

Essentially this for me.
10  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: Misplaying 66..? on: February 24, 2016, 07:13:06 PM
My rule of thumb for these sorts of spots is that I need to be able to win about 20x the amount I have to call in order to set mine.  I might reduce this amount if I think there's more of a chance that no-one will squeeze behind or if villain will likely stack off easily, but around 20-1 is a good starting point.
11  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / AA on A77 flop... River decision???? on: February 24, 2016, 07:03:20 PM
I had a spot yesterday that's both sort of interesting and not at the same time.  Playing a 1/2 game on Sky, I don't know anything about villain but suspect they're a fish as they're not playing a full stack.

We m/r button to £4 with  
Villain playing £137 to start calls from BB


Check Check (Fairly obvious I would have thought)

Turn    Check Check  (Would usually bet most turns to try and start building a pot but this feels like an odd one as theres still not really much out there to get any sort of value from)

River    Villain bets £4.50 (into £9), we raise to £15.50 they jam £135.  

Thoughts on all streets, particularly river appreciated?
12  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: Rollcall please, UKPC at DTD on: February 24, 2016, 02:58:30 PM
Will be there from Thursday.
13  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: ***THE OFFICIAL COMPUTER GAMING THREAD*** on: February 23, 2016, 08:54:12 PM
Speedball looks like and reminds me a bit of NHL 94 somehow.

Rocket League is a great play for 20 minutes sort of game.  Controls are really intuitive, gameplay is good and the game is surprisingly hard to master.
14  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: ***THE OFFICIAL COMPUTER GAMING THREAD*** on: February 23, 2016, 06:31:45 PM
Timed well!!!  I have been playing chunks and chunks of Hearthstone recently and absolutely love it. 

Bought Fallout 4 and didn't really get into it.  I like games with direction and I sort of lost my way a few hours in and every time I try to play I just seem to wander round aimlessly for a while and give up on it.

Also bought Rocket League and like it a lot (like football with cars), really simple concept but strangely addictive.
15  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: The 'tomsom87' Testimonial Grind on: February 21, 2016, 11:25:36 PM

How's the teaching going? Everything you thought it would be?

The teaching course is going great thanks.  It's not everything I thought it would be but I absolutely love it when I'm in school.  Lots of ups and downs so far but definitely feel like I've made the right decision long term.  I can't wait to get qualified and actually start teaching, all the coursework and theory stuff is a bit much.  But long term I think I'll be very happy I made the change.

Great to see one of blonde's great characters back.

Look forward to seeing you next weekend.

Great to be back.  I will be around for the duration of the weekend so I'm sure we will be able to have a catch up at some point.  I can only imagine you will be walking around trying to look busy so it will give you an opportunity to look like you're putting some graft in.


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