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16  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: September 30, 2020, 04:39:48 PM
I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair.  I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price. 

I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer?  I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC).  I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).

It really is one of the strangest betting markets I can ever remember. There is a lot of what happened in 2016 and everyone thinking it is the same, whereas Bidens polling lead is bigger, stable and with a lot less undecideds than Hillary In 2016.

Backing Trump at anything less than 2/1, you either have to believe the polls are very wrong (outside the margin of error) or that Trump has very real chance of winning an election in the Supreme Court on some voter fraud ruling.

It has been proper crazy - the most outlying major betting market I can ever remember. I bet on Biden a few months ago and have been forced to just go in again and again as I thought the price was more and more out of line.

The price on Biden finally moved last night - 1.83 to 1.62. I guess part of the reason for the market being strong on Trump was a thought that Biden would fall apart in the debates. That obviously didn't transpire (even though I thought Biden's first 30 mins or so were very low energy and unimpressive).

As has been stated, some things are different from last time. Biden is up by 7% a month out, compared to Clinton's 3.5% last time. Also there seem to be far fewer undecided voters this time round - Trump mopped up the majority of these last time but there aren't as many this time round in an election where he's further back.

The main complication now is what happens if the election is close - Biden may be ahead but if Trump doesn't concede and it goes to the Supreme Court things get messy.

Betfair rules on this market are 'This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.'

Not sure what 'projected Electoral College votes' are - projected by whom?
17  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: September 15, 2020, 11:20:57 AM
Of all the crazy reasons why someone would be against wearing face masks I must admit that 'Most child molesters love them' is a new one.
18  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: *****"The Official 2017 Golf Betting and Discussion Thread"***** on: September 11, 2020, 09:44:30 PM
Excellent couple of sweats for the weekend Ralph.
19  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: August 28, 2020, 11:41:24 PM
Earlier today Biden hit 1.93 on Betfair, which seemed ludicrous considering he’s 2 points ahead in Florida and 4 points up in Pennsylvania and clearly ahead of where Hillary was four years ago. Just seems like the market is ovecompensating for Trump’s victory last time out
20  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: August 02, 2020, 07:15:32 PM
If he picks Duckworth and wins; then dies or resigns during his term, who would take over?

The next in line is Speaker of the House of Representatives, so Nancy Pelosi.
21  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Give me a break on: July 31, 2020, 01:25:05 PM
In this battle of the US presidents, very much enjoying Donald Trump getting outplayed by Gerald Ford.
22  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Give me a break on: July 31, 2020, 01:22:10 PM
Boris announced the Covid restriction were being extended, so the trials of sporting events with some fans has to stop.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jul/31/sport-fans-return-to-live-events-stalled-as-boris-johnson-abandons-further-pilots-covid-19
23  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Give me a break on: July 31, 2020, 01:11:43 PM
Bet Anthony Hamilton feels like an idiot now - pulling out of the tournament because they were letting the fans in and now the fans will be all kicked out before his game even starts.

Edit: Actually he was due to play tonight when the fans would still have been there, but it would only have been for one session.
24  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: July 30, 2020, 05:00:35 PM
Herman Cain has died from Covid-19

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/30/herman-cain-former-republican-presidential-candidate-dies-coronavirus
25  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: July 28, 2020, 01:23:29 PM
Wasn't Herman Cain the guy whose campaign fell apart once he announced a taxation policy that was taken from the game Sim City?
26  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Leeds Utd a sad sad story. on: July 18, 2020, 01:46:35 AM
Congrats all Leeds fans.   Its about time that a proper EPL club was back.  Fingers crossed you stay there.   Love to see Forest back somehow as well.   Sick to death of Bournemouth and Norwich types.   Really want to see an old school EPL.  Shame Villa are going down.

Very much this - too many shitmunchers clogging up the PL. Though Villa could so with a couple of seasons downstairs to give their arse a smack to wake them up.
27  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Sad News about Mel Lofthouse on: July 16, 2020, 06:16:20 PM
This is very sad - Mel would have been no age at all.

Thoughts with her family.
28  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary on: July 03, 2020, 10:30:28 PM
Teeks returns - all is well with the world.

Morning Tone, welcome back.

On a scale of 1-10, how grumpy are you these days?

And on a scale of... well just on a scale really, how fat are you?

Basically dropped in to tip my hat at this joke.
29  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: COVID19 on: July 03, 2020, 03:42:20 PM
Pubs here in Ireland opened earlier this week in 'restaurant mode' so you can't just go for a few pints, you have to have a meal and can stay no longer than 1h45m.

So what's happened? Pubs handing over fake food vouchers with pints so customers can tell the Garda 'I'm just waiting for my food' if any of them do spot checks and find lads sat there with pints and no food. Smiley
30  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: They are dropping like flies at the moment on: June 18, 2020, 11:19:06 AM
By any standard, this one is a true icon.

Dame Vera Lynn passes away, aged 103.

In the middle of Coronavirus, "We'll Meet Again" has been a well-used phrase, most notably by the Queen.

Vera Lynn and the Queen would have been the last two people who would have been well known by British people during WW2 that were still alive.
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