I want to run a small competition

Please post before polls close on Thursday to be eligible

Answer with one number, either

a) size of conservative majority or b) number of seats short of majority (and state which your answer is)

Nearest wins a £25 donation to a charity of their choice (will post screenshot)

In the event of a tie earliest guess wins

Anyway those that haven't can still have a crack at this

Put my money where your mouth is, or something like that.....

Tories one short.

As opposed to me on election night when I'll probably have 3 or 4 shorts, plus wine.

Twitter 'polls' are not polls and should be ignored.

Pollsters are well aware they poll age groups in different ratios and that's why demographic poll weighting is a thing.

Interesting thread here outlining how there could be three potential sources of polling error, and all three would overstate the Tory vote share in the polls.

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1202678707288264709

I’ve been in the pub all night so haven’t been watching but from the commentary online I get the impression that Jo Swinson came on stage and spent 30 mins throwing kittens into a woodchipper

Watching Newsnight and the Tories have not made anyone available to have a free shot at hurling bricks through the Labour manifesto window.

They obviously saw that Barry Gardiner was on for Labour and thought they didn’t need to bother.

In the realms of "its not happening but what if..." I do sometimes think where this election would be if Starmer or Cooper or Benn or (name someone not hated by the broader populace) was LOTO

There’d be no election. The Tories wouldn’t have had the lurch to the right and driven away the moderates in the party as they know they would have needed them to fight for the centre ground.

With Corbyn as leader, they knew that any dissatisfied moderate Tory voters would only go so far as the Lib Dems so the rump of Labour/Tory marginals would be safe.

The Sheffield Hallam seat looks like one of the most interesting

2017:

Labour - 21,881
Lib Dem - 19,756
Con - 13,561

You have to fancy that’ll be a comfortable winback for the Lib Dems - a majority of only 2,000 to turn over in a seat they held for 20 years against an almost certainly topped out Labour vote and a good chunk of 13,000 Tory votes they can tap up for voters who disagree with the hard-right Tory turn but who don’t want to see Corbyn as PM.

Currently 1/3 with Ladbrokes, which I’d be taking.

It's also Jared O'Mara's seat which he won for Labour, then went independent after resigning from Labour, plus a bunch of other mini scandals that followed him around, so quite the tarnished seat for Labour. That 1/3 looks pretty good IMO.

I think LD would win it, but it's a seat that surely has a lot of new voters since 2017 considering it's a seat with plenty of new students.

But it would also have had a load of those who were students in 2017 have graduated and moved away

The Sheffield Hallam seat looks like one of the most interesting

2017:

Labour - 21,881
Lib Dem - 19,756
Con - 13,561

You have to fancy that’ll be a comfortable winback for the Lib Dems - a majority of only 2,000 to turn over in a seat they held for 20 years against an almost certainly topped out Labour vote and a good chunk of 13,000 Tory votes they can tap up for voters who disagree with the hard-right Tory turn but who don’t want to see Corbyn as PM.

Currently 1/3 with Ladbrokes, which I’d be taking.

Like whiter than white Donald, then. They're all double busy when it suits their own ends.

She's got some kind of book out with her nipper, so no shock she's putting herself about a bit again.

Exactly the same thing applies to Trump.

Not his place or hers to interfere in British politics.

Why not Hillary? She’s a private citizen with no political job - bit different from the President wading in.

Farage announces the Brexit Party won’t stand in any of the 317 Tory held seats.

Price on a Tory majority immediately moved from 1.75 to 1.5, with a hung parliament drifting.

This may not help get a Tory majority as much as the price move suggests - to get the majority the Tories need to win the Labour held marginals, and enough of them to offset the loss of seats in Scotland, and Farage’s decision does not help that. It may actually hurt it as Farage explicitly aligning with the Tories may put off ex-Labour voters who would otherwise vote Brexit.

Farage’s decision protects against Labour making ground, but that was unlikely anyway.

If you have any thoughts of liking a hung parliament then now is the time to bet.

Man Almost Wins Poker Tournament

I do like the idea of a Referendum World Cup - could be like Eurovision where the semi finals are on Tues/Thur with the final on Saturday.

Fixed it for you.

Thanks, what was I doing wrong?

Using the wrong link - click through to the View all sizes link on the download button then copy the photo on that page

Fixed it for you.

https://www.sbcnews.co.uk/sportsbook/2019/10/02/flutter-and-stars-group-agree-takeover-deal/

It's nearly a merger but Flutter is 55% of the new company.

With the relays there’s more people on the track than in the crowd.